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50% chance of depression in US

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by NEPatriot, Dec 21, 2008.

  1. NEPatriot

    NEPatriot Banned

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    Last edited: Dec 21, 2008
  2. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    As far as I can tell there isn't even a technical definition of a Depression. The "definition" is something worse than the worst standard recession. If anyone has a proven definition (like the two quarters of negative growth for a recession) I'd like to hear it.

    My point being, if there isn't an actual definition then it can be a Depression if people want it to be.
     
  3. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    A depression is anything worse the a classic recession or even a severe recession. Just about all US recession fall into a model of 12-24 months, declining GDP and high unemployment. The worst recession we've had since the Great Depression was the 1980-'82 (or there abouts) recession.

    If we see anything deeper and longer than that, it will probably be a depression. If we experience 6 years of negative to flat GDP and high uneployment, it will probably be a depression.

    But I think you're right about there not being a model of depression. We've only had one since the industrial revolution. Keep in mind though, it won't have to "Look like" the great depression for us to be in a depression. Just as all recession aren't the same.
     
  4. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    The was my point that people associate a Depression with The Great Depression (have there been others ?) and it's misleading if TGD was, say, 50 value points of different between a severe recession and itself to squirm about a "Depression" if it's one value point worse than a severe recession.

    I know when I hear "Depression" I think of TGD and that is not on the table IMO.
     
  5. PatriotsReign

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    #18 Jersey

    You're right BF! I think the biggest fear we all have is the fear that we just don't know how bad things are going to get. We all hope it won't be "that bad" but I think most of us also have underlying thought that it actually might end up worse.

    Most of us don't even want to consider a "worst case scenario". I know I don't. For while, I allowed myself to be over-whelmed with "what would I do if?" type thinking. Then I realized it was getting me depressed and weighing me down.
     
  6. NEPatriot

    NEPatriot Banned

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    U.S. debt approaches insolvency | Spero News

    washingtonpost.com

     
    Last edited: Dec 21, 2008
  7. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

  8. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Gee go figure. Barney Frank is a joke. He needs to be removed. Votes for the bailout that enabled this. He should be ashamed of himself


     
  9. mr3putt

    mr3putt 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Believe the worst
    Wall street is cooked

    Anyone who invests in stocks without strict oversite and accountability is a fool. Everytime one of these scams crashes biilions in investor equity the talking heads chide the victims for lack of due diligence.

    How can you verify the facts when the CEO's cook the books?
    How can you validate the financials of a company when the rating institutions, Moodys, Standard and Poors and Finch sign off on bogus credit?
    How can you assume that the SEC will even listen when legitimate concerns are voiced multiple times without action?

    Hell even the Banks themselves won't trust enough to lend to each other. They are taking the funds provided by the TARP and pocketing the last few pennies into their bloated pockets.

    It is a crisis of leadership now.
    An entire generation of retirement savings has gone up in smoke. This money stolen deliberately by a few executives who will walk away rich.

    The polititians won't help you....
    The regulatory agencies won't help you
    For those over 50 a bleak future looms

    Hide your remaining cash under the mattress and get ready for your golden years to include a lot of cat food and a Walmart greeter's apron.

    My 2 cents
     
  10. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I'd agree. 401k's were just a scam to get people to invest money and then it could be taken.
     
  11. mikey

    mikey In the Starting Line-Up

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    Depression?

    Just take 2 tablets of Prozac. :D


    .
     
  12. sdaniels7114

    sdaniels7114 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I'll say this much, there's a 100% chance of depression if this football team goes 11-5 and doesn't make the playoffs:mad:

    As to an actual depression? I'd say more like 8% Wait, if I'm going to just pull an arbitrary number right out of my arse like the author of the article this thread is linked to, I think I'll make it 8.42431%

    Yeah, there's an 8.42431% chance we'll slip into a depression.
     
  13. Lifer

    Lifer Banned

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    thats like the old joke....Did you ever hear about the Great Depression? They were talking about Mom.
     
  14. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    When you think about it, it's surprising that we haven't had angry mobs marching down Wall Street looking for vengence. If that happened, it would be difficult to blame them.
     
  15. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    Every 401K has bond and money market options. Those of us who have lost money have no one to blame but ourselves.
     
  16. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    That's bullsh1t "if" thieves stole someone's money. Even it it was only one of 1,000 options. BF, if there are even 5 thieves working on Wall Street, then Wall Street is the only one to blame. For you to even hint that "people had a choice, is assanine and foolish". Every single investment option is assumed to be as trustworthy as bonds or money markets. Maybe more risky, but just as trustworthy.

    Our financial/investment system is supposedly covered so that schemes can't exist. If the system of checks and balances is flawed, then people like those who invested with Madoff should sue our government and the SEC specifically.

    Yes, if you invested with legitimate companies, then you can blame yourself. but if a company purposefully invested in a faulty ponzi scheme that went unnoticed by the SEC, only our gov't and that company can be blamed.

    Let me tell you that no one who invests with a company that the SEC has cleared is to blame. What the fukc BF, so you think people should be able to read minds. Please tell us how it was any investor's fault....this should be interesting.

    If someone stole my money, believe me when I say I'd hope that person or persons suffered in every manner of the word. Just as Madoff should as well.

    I suppose you blame the people who invested with Madoff rather the slimey, snivelling thief himself?

    BF...why do you ALWAYS defend American systems? Without exception, you defend them. Whether it's corp America, our system of finance or our gov't, you step up and defendt them no matter what wrongs they have committed. That is just plain insanity.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2008
  17. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Are you talking about Madoff or the market in general ? The former, sure, I agree. But with the market in general I odon't see the thievery that you do, just people getting caught up in the free money that the stock market appeared to be creating.
     
  18. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Ok, so we agree on where fault lies when discussing above board investments.

    There's been a lot of discussion/speculation that the banks knew the exotic loans that transformed and broke up risky mortgages were more or less a scam. Yet people invested heavily in the financial sector because the (cooked) bookds reflected huge profits for the banks and mortgage companies.

    I'm saying if people "in the know" were aware of this, they should be arreste and their companies should be sued. I think we're gonna see a lot of fallout once Obama gets in office. Madoff wasn't the only one running a house of cards.
     
  19. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    One distinct difference in THIS recession is the fact that it's the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5aNEWgHqzlo&refer=home

    Think about the significance of that statement. Also, realize that Russia, Australia and all of Asia (except China...so far) are also experiencing recession. The last time this happened was during the GD.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2008
  20. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I don't care what you say. 401ks and their propaganda have been a tool for wall street to get their hands on the money of the working folk!!!
     

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