5 teams in 2009 on the rise & 5 teams in decline

[Rob0729]

Yeah, the Colts won all those games though and as your coach is fond of saying "it is what it is".

Plus Manning wasn't exactly healthy until about midway through the season and the Colts were playing a lot of young players, including two rookies on the O line a lot of last season. The Colts won a lot of close games, true, but they are one of the youngest teams in the league. Like I said, they aren't going anywhere. They have owned the Pats of late winning 4 of the last 5 and barely losing the other.

I'm really looking forward to this season. I'm predicting a 13-3 record for the Colts.

I am not saying the Colts didn't win those games, I just say that no team can win like that year after year. If the Colts are in the same exact position this year, they are justs as likely to go 8-8 and 9-7 as to repeat 12-4.

Also, I don't know if being one of the youngest teams in the league neccessarily means that they aren't going anywhere. How many of the Colts' younger players are the key contributors vs. the older players. The Colts' main contributors are still the players either 30 or over or approaching it. Manning is 33, Wayne is 30, Dallas Clark is 30, Gary Brackett is 29, Robert Mathis is 28, Bob Sanders is 28, Freeney is 29, and Jeff Saturday is 34. I didn't include Vinatieri, but he is up there. Not that 28 or 29 is all that old at all (it is the prime in most positions), but the most of the main players are not that young especially on offense. Also, with the top heavy salaries by the Colts, will they be able to retain players as they become free agents? These young players may leave the Colts when they hit their prime years.

And let's not minimize the loss of Dungy. Look how fast the Bucs fell apart after he left. Yes, they won the Super Bowl the year after he left, but they went 7-9 the following year and 5-11 the year after that. I don't think Dungy is Belichick, but he was in the top 3 best coaches in the NFL before he left.

 

[BigtimeColtsfans]

I am not saying the Colts didn't win those games, I just say that no team can win like that year after year. If the Colts are in the same exact position this year, they are justs as likely to go 8-8 and 9-7 as to repeat 12-4.

Also, I don't know if being one of the youngest teams in the league neccessarily means that they aren't going anywhere. How many of the Colts' younger players are the key contributors vs. the older players. The Colts' main contributors are still the players either 30 or over or approaching it. Manning is 33, Wayne is 30, Dallas Clark is 30, Gary Brackett is 29, Robert Mathis is 28, Bob Sanders is 28, Freeney is 29, and Jeff Saturday is 34. I didn't include Vinatieri, but he is up there. Not that 28 or 29 is all that old, but the most of the main players are not that young especially on offense.

And let's not minimize the loss of Dungy. Look how fast the Bucs fell apart after he left. Yes, they won the Super Bowl the year after he left, but they went 7-9 the following year and 5-11 the year after that. I don't think Dungy is Belichick, but he was in the top 3 best coaches in the NFL before he left.

Yeah, most of the Colts players are in their primes. Freeney is 29? So? Sanders is 28? So? Mathis si 28? So? I'm just saying, that isn't exactly old is it? AV yeah, he's getting up there but he's also a kicker. Kickers play until their in their 40's all the time.

And Adai is young. Brown of course is young. Gonzo is young. Ugoh is young. Pollack is young. Bullit is young. Bethea is young. Jackson is young. Keiaho is young.

The point is people keep acting like the Colts are old. A 28-30 year old player isn't old, that is their prime.

Manning played great after he recovered from his injury last season. If he and Saturday weren't hurt the Colts don't start 3-4.

You want to say 3 years down the road when Manning is 36-37 their Window is closing, fine. But right now the Colts have as good a shot as anyone and have a great young team.

My point is I think it's hypocritical of Pat fans to say the Colts are old and their Window is closing when if you look at the Pats, they are (or were last year) one of the oldest teams in the league. I know they've had a lot of turnover this season, but by the logic around here that means the Pats "window is closing".

Anyway, Dungy leaving is my main question mark for the Colts. But Caldwell has been around for a long time and knows the players, the systems, the coaches etc. He's got a lot to live up to, but he's a very smart guy and hopefully he can get it done.

Like I said, I can't wait for this season to start. A healthy Manning and a D line that can actually stop the run? A healthy O line? Two stud running backs? Can't wait.

 

[PatsChowder]

(in no particular order)

Five on the Rise:

1. New York Jets - hopes of a franchise QB, new coach, improved defense
2. Buffalo Bills - TO changes the entire make up of the team
3. Chicago Bears - I'm not sure they can make the playoffs, but getting Cutler was huge
4. Tampa Bay Bucs - They made a lot of under the radar improvements
5. Detroit Lions - 1-15 is an improvement. Sad.

Five on the Decline:

1. Miami Dolphins - With a full offseason, people will figure out the Wildcat
2. Tennessee Titans - Flash in the pan... no offense, no Haynesworth
3. Cincinnati Bengals - Lots of young talent, but for '09 they're going to be awful
4. New York Giants - Without Plaxico that team is undeniably different.
5. Caolina Panthers - Tougher schedule this season, Delhomme is an issue.

 

[Rob0729]

Yeah, most of the Colts players are in their primes. Freeney is 29? So? Sanders is 28? So? Mathis si 28? So? I'm just saying, that isn't exactly old is it? AV yeah, he's getting up there but he's also a kicker. Kickers play until their in their 40's all the time.

And Adai is young. Brown of course is young. Gonzo is young. Ugoh is young. Pollack is young. Bullit is young. Bethea is young. Jackson is young. Keiaho is young.

The point is people keep acting like the Colts are old. A 28-30 year old player isn't old, that is their prime.

Manning played great after he recovered from his injury last season. If he and Saturday weren't hurt the Colts don't start 3-4.

You want to say 3 years down the road when Manning is 36-37 their Window is closing, fine. But right now the Colts have as good a shot as anyone and have a great young team.

My point is I think it's hypocritical of Pat fans to say the Colts are old and their Window is closing when if you look at the Pats, they are (or were last year) one of the oldest teams in the league. I know they've had a lot of turnover this season, but by the logic around here that means the Pats "window is closing".

Anyway, Dungy leaving is my main question mark for the Colts. But Caldwell has been around for a long time and knows the players, the systems, the coaches etc. He's got a lot to live up to, but he's a very smart guy and hopefully he can get it done.

Like I said, I can't wait for this season to start. A healthy Manning and a D line that can actually stop the run? A healthy O line? Two stud running backs? Can't wait.

Addai has not been good for a year and a half and looks to have lost the faith of the Colts based on the draft this year. Ugoh has been inconsistent. Sanders is injury prone and could have a shortened career because of it.

I personally don't think the Colts are as good as their record was last year. I still think depending on the quality of competition, I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts end up with something like a 9-7 record. They may be young, but I don't know if they are among the the elite in the NFL anymore. They could get 11-12 wins, but if their schedule is as hard as it looks on paper (6 games in their division, AFC East, Baltimore, and Arizona) they could have less than 10 wins.

I think you are minimizing the loss of Dungy. Romeo Crennel spent over a decade under both Belichick and Parcells and failed in Cleveland. A large number of Percells', Jimmy Johnson's, Bill Cowher's, Belichick's, Walsh's, etc. coaching trees failed and some miserably. Just because you learn at the hand of greatness, doesn't mean that the greatness will rub off. Some great coordinators become horrible head coaches.

As for a defense that can actually stop the run, shouldn't you actually wait until the season starts to make that statement? Indianapolis was 31st vs. the run last year. There are no guarantees that the additions made will make a significant impact on the run. Ed Johnson missed virtually the entire season last year. There is no guarantees he will come back in football shape and repeat his rookie season production. Fili Moala is a rookie and a crap shoot especially since most scouting reports have mixed grades for him.

As for Vinatieri, he has had injury issues on and off in recent years and has been inconsistent since he came to the Colts (his 2007 season he was almost killed by the fans). Even indoors he has had some consistency issues. He is an average kicker at this point. So even if he stays for another 5 years, I don't know if it means anything since he is no longer an elite kicker.

 

[Metaphors]

Yeah, the Colts won all those games though and as your coach is fond of saying "it is what it is".

Plus Manning wasn't exactly healthy until about midway through the season and the Colts were playing a lot of young players, including two rookies on the O line a lot of last season. The Colts won a lot of close games, true, but they are one of the youngest teams in the league. Like I said, they aren't going anywhere. They have owned the Pats of late winning 4 of the last 5 and barely losing the other.

I'm really looking forward to this season. I'm predicting a 13-3 record for the Colts.

Possible, but I think you are seeing the glass half full when it looks to me like the Colts are trending the other way. We can analyze the roster all we want, but it is clear the Colts will only go as far as Manning carries them. Both the offense and defense as currently configured depends on the game becoming a track meet for them to be effective. I'm just not sure Manning can continue to do that on a consistent basis.

Here is his progression from 2004-2008...

Attempts: 497, 453, 557, 515, 555
Comp %: 68, 67, 65, 65, 67
YPA: 9.2, 8.3, 7.9, 7.8, 7.2
TD: 49, 28, 31, 31, 27
Rating: 121, 104, 101, 98, 95

The bold shows a distinct downward trend. The 2008 stats are still excellent, but I see nothing to indicate that Manning will exceed them in 2009 and there are clear indicators that the decline could continue. How did that translate into the Colts ability to get into the end zone?

Team Non-return TDs: 61, 49, 48, 51, 40

While the Colts should do well in 2009 with a workable schedule, that sound you hear is the championship window closing for this group. They are just postponing the date the window slams shut.

 

[BradyFTW!]

What? Wayne has been a much better receiver over the last 5 years than Moss, including last year. Take away 2007 and Moss hasn't exactly done much the past 5 years has he? I mean, he had two seasons barely over 1,000 yards, two horrible seasons way under a 1,000 yards, and of course that great 2007 season.

Over the past 5 years Wayne has 6230 yards and 42 TD's. Moss has 4826 yards and 56 TD's 23 of which came in one season. In the other seasons he only had 33 TD's. And don't forget Wayne was no 2 behind Harrison for most of his career.

So in summary last 5 years: Moss 4826 yards. Wayne 6230 yards. Wayne kills moss in yards over the last 5 years. It's not even close.

Moss 56 TD's Wayne 42. Moss has a big advantage here but most of his TD's came in one season. The other 4 he didn't exactly set the league on fire. And Wayne was the number 2 up until 2007, behind Harrison.

Also, I was comparing their ages not the players themselves, (but I'm happy to set you straight about Wayne, if he keeps playing like he has for 4-5 more seasons he will be a HOFer himself).

They are both their teams number 1. Some guy up there said Wayne "isn't getting any younger" which is true, I mean who is? But Wayne is still almost 2 years younger than Moss.

Over the past 5 years, Wayne has had Manning throwing to him every year. Moss has had one year of Brady (where he set the all time TD record), one year of Cassel (who hadn't started a game since high school), and 3 years of whatever crap heap they were serving up in Oakland.

I actually agree with some of the other arguments that you've made, but to claim that Wayne is even in the same ballpark as Moss, let alone better, is just insane.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Colt Fan

I think you miss my point.

What I'm saying is that in this league, 5-11/ 6-10 vs 10-6/11-5 doesn't really mean that a team is "rising" ot "falling". A 12-4 Colts team (or a 12-4 Steelers) team both could have been 8-8 teams last year without "falling".

If in 2007, the Ravens beat the Pats, does 15-1 make a team a "falling"? Hardly.

With that said, it's also obvious good teams win close and bad teams lose close. Still if the Colts go 8-8 next year ( I wouldn't be shocked), it's hardly a case of them "falling" or being materially worse than last year's 12-4 team.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Colt Fan

I believe you also do not take into account the "Patriot Philosophy" when it comes to age. Actually, I don't think the rest of the league gets it.

Old guys like Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway will have definate roles with emphasis in some games less in others. Having "uber specialists" is much different that in the Colts plan.

I think the Colts have done Addai a disservice (maybe drafting a RB will help) by making him do things that Maroney/Faulk/Morris/Taylor will all do.

 

[BigtimeColtsfans]

Over the past 5 years, Wayne has had Manning throwing to him every year. Moss has had one year of Brady (where he set the all time TD record), one year of Cassel (who hadn't started a game since high school), and 3 years of whatever crap heap they were serving up in Oakland.

I actually agree with some of the other arguments that you've made, but to claim that Wayne is even in the same ballpark as Moss, let alone better, is just insane.

Well, believe whatever you want. I never said Moss wasn't physically better than Wayne or more talented. But the guy doesn't play hard when it isn't easy. Look at his last season in Minnesota and his time in Oakland. Facts are facts.

Wayne has way more yards than Moss over the last 5 years. You can say it's because of whatever you want, but the bottom line is Wayne has produced more than Moss. To me, a receiver that produces is better than one that does not. Moss flat out gave up in Minnesota and Oakland. There is no reason that guy shouldn't get 1,000 yards a season, no matter who is throwing him the ball, given his talent. None.

Look at Calvin Johnson in Detroit. That guy played on one of the worst teams ever, with no talent around, freaking Daunte Culpepper throwing him the ball and he gets 1300 yards. So why with Arena league talent all around him does Calvin Johnson get 1300 yards but Moss failed to even crack 1,000 twice?

Because Moss quits sometimes. Guys like Johnson and Wayne do not.

And you all just keep saying the door is closing. I hear it every season. Hasn't happened yet. The Colts are one of the best drafting teams in the league. They never pick up big free agents but they always find a replacement. Faulk want's big money? Draft James. James want's big money. Draft Addai. Addai's got a contract coming up and isn't playing all that great? Bring in Brown. Dilger and Pollard leave? Bring in Dallas Clark.

How do you replace a HOF receiver like Harrison? With another guy you drafted named Wayne who is working towards the HOF. Next up is Gonzo.

Like I said, you Pats fans keep talking about closing doors. You're team is older than the Colts, missed the playoffs last year and hasn't won anything since 2004. Your QB is coming back from a serious injury and your schedule isn't the AFC/NFC West cakewalk it was last year.

I know everyone is hyping the Pats as SB winners around here already, but the fact is the Colts have won one and the Steelers two since the last time the Pats won one. The Colts have taken 4 out of the last 5 from the Pats, Pats fans keep saying the Pats are better than the Colts, but 4 out of 5? And 4 of those had Brady at QB.

Bottom line the Colts aren't going to start 3-4 again. Manning isn't going to come in totally out of shape like last season. The O line isn't going be starting rookies.

They are a young team that has won at least 12 games since 2003. Every year someone says the window is closing, it hasn't yet. Teams have down years. Look at NE in 2005.

As for waiting to see if the run D improves because it was 24th last year, that's kind of my point. It was 24th last year and the team went 12-4. If Johnson and Moala it's got to be better than 24th.

Like said though, I think it's funny that the Colts window is closing but not the Pats who are older by far. Pretty hypocritical IMO.

I'll bump this thread at the end of the season after the Colts have won 12 or 13 again.

 

[BigtimeColtsfans]

Colt Fan

I think you miss my point.

What I'm saying is that in this league, 5-11/ 6-10 vs 10-6/11-5 doesn't really mean that a team is "rising" ot "falling". A 12-4 Colts team (or a 12-4 Steelers) team both could have been 8-8 teams last year without "falling".

If in 2007, the Ravens beat the Pats, does 15-1 make a team a "falling"? Hardly.

With that said, it's also obvious good teams win close and bad teams lose close. Still if the Colts go 8-8 next year ( I wouldn't be shocked), it's hardly a case of them "falling" or being materially worse than last year's 12-4 team.

I still have no idea what you are talking about the 2007 Pats for. No, obviously going 15-1 because of one play doesn't mean you are worse than a 16-0 club, it just means you lost a game. But going from 12-4 to 8-8 or 6-10 would.

I see where you are going, with the whole "a few plays is the difference between 12-4 and 8-8 or 6-10" but the context of "falling" here is a team that isn't going to do as well as it did the year before, in number of wins.

And as far as the "Patriot Age" thing goes, I get it, Patriot fans don't consider age when they're talking about their own team, it's only other teams where age is such a factor. Manning is old at 32, Brady (coming of missing a year and serious injury) is a spring chicken at 31. Moss at 32 is fine but Wayne is getting old at 30. I see exactly how "patriot age" works and like I said, I just shake my head.

 

[Rob0729]

(in no particular order)

Five on the Rise:

1. New York Jets - hopes of a franchise QB, new coach, improved defense
2. Buffalo Bills - TO changes the entire make up of the team
3. Chicago Bears - I'm not sure they can make the playoffs, but getting Cutler was huge
4. Tampa Bay Bucs - They made a lot of under the radar improvements
5. Detroit Lions - 1-15 is an improvement. Sad.

Five on the Decline:

1. Miami Dolphins - With a full offseason, people will figure out the Wildcat
2. Tennessee Titans - Flash in the pan... no offense, no Haynesworth
3. Cincinnati Bengals - Lots of young talent, but for '09 they're going to be awful
4. New York Giants - Without Plaxico that team is undeniably different.
5. Caolina Panthers - Tougher schedule this season, Delhomme is an issue.

You list the Jets as the #1 team on the rise (granted you say in no particular order and I guess my reading comprehension is not what it used to be) and then give two reasons why they won't be. A rookie QB and a rookie head coach usually means a team will be on at least a one year decline.

 

[BigtimeColtsfans]

Possible, but I think you are seeing the glass half full when it looks to me like the Colts are trending the other way. We can analyze the roster all we want, but it is clear the Colts will only go as far as Manning carries them. Both the offense and defense as currently configured depends on the game becoming a track meet for them to be effective. I'm just not sure Manning can continue to do that on a consistent basis.

Here is his progression from 2004-2008...

Attempts: 497, 453, 557, 515, 555
Comp %: 68, 67, 65, 65, 67
YPA: 9.2, 8.3, 7.9, 7.8, 7.2
TD: 49, 28, 31, 31, 27
Rating: 121, 104, 101, 98, 95

The bold shows a distinct downward trend. The 2008 stats are still excellent, but I see nothing to indicate that Manning will exceed them in 2009 and there are clear indicators that the decline could continue. How did that translate into the Colts ability to get into the end zone?

Team Non-return TDs: 61, 49, 48, 51, 40

While the Colts should do well in 2009 with a workable schedule, that sound you hear is the championship window closing for this group. They are just postponing the date the window slams shut.

Hold on, you don't see any reason Manning will improve his 2008 numbers? Did you watch the second half of last year? Manning was hurt before the season. He didn't train, he lost all kinds of weight and muscle. He didn't look like Manning at all the first half of the season. But then the second half of the season after he recovered he tore it up and looked as good as ever.

Are the Colts going to be the 2004 Colts? Of course not. Is Manning going to throw for 30-some TD's and 4000 yards? Absolutely. And he's going to be better than last year because he's not having two surgeries on his knees.

 

[BigtimeColtsfans]

You list the Jets as the #1 team on the rise (granted you say in no particular order and I guess my reading comprehension is not what it used to be) and then give two reasons why they won't be. A rookie QB and a rookie head coach usually means a team will be on at least a one year decline.

Atlanta had a rookie coach and QB last year. So did Baltimore.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, but they didn't. Besides, how many games and teams could you say the same thing about? Every team gets lucky sometimes (look at the Pats VS Raiders in 2001).

The Colts also beat the Steelers, the Ravens, the Pats, Chargers and Vikings.

It the Raiders, Seahawks, and the rest of the West divisions weren't so awful last year the Pats certainly don't go 11-5, and don't get near the playoffs. I'm not sure what the Pats record against PO teams last season was, but I know they had a losing one and I know they were blown out by the Dolphins, Steelers and Chargers.

Not trying to slag, but you say the Colts should have lost to the Texans, fine, but the Pats almost lost to the Seahawks and barely beat the Rams.

But if you are judging the direction a team is going in, then you have to consider these things.
Look at the Patriot/Colt game. If it wasnt for a stupid penalty on Dave Thomas for a hit after the whistle, the Pats without question win the game with Matt Cassell at QB.

Are you saying that the numerous games that the Colts won by the skin of their teeth on unusual plays (it isnt lucky or not, its the margin between winning and losign ans whehter you can afford to not have the uncommon happen) has always been happening, and last year isnt' different?

I'm will predict right now that Peyton Manning will never win another playoff game.
You can write that down and call me out on it if he does.
Its not like he has won a ton of them outside of one sole season, but the Colts who have never, outside of 1 season been good in big games, are declining and the decline is going to be rapid.

 

[BigtimeColtsfans]

But if you are judging the direction a team is going in, then you have to consider these things.
Look at the Patriot/Colt game. If it wasnt for a stupid penalty on Dave Thomas for a hit after the whistle, the Pats without question win the game with Matt Cassell at QB.

Are you saying that the numerous games that the Colts won by the skin of their teeth on unusual plays (it isnt lucky or not, its the margin between winning and losign ans whehter you can afford to not have the uncommon happen) has always been happening, and last year isnt' different?

I'm will predict right now that Peyton Manning will never win another playoff game.
You can write that down and call me out on it if he does.
Its not like he has won a ton of them outside of one sole season, but the Colts who have never, outside of 1 season been good in big games, are declining and the decline is going to be rapid.

Manning won't win another playoff game? Sorry man, conversation over. We were having a decent discussion but with just total nonsense like that you've shown your colors. It's a waste of both our time now.

Have fun.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, most of the Colts players are in their primes. Freeney is 29? So? Sanders is 28? So? Mathis si 28? So? I'm just saying, that isn't exactly old is it? AV yeah, he's getting up there but he's also a kicker. Kickers play until their in their 40's all the time.

And Adai is young. Brown of course is young. Gonzo is young. Ugoh is young. Pollack is young. Bullit is young. Bethea is young. Jackson is young. Keiaho is young.

The point is people keep acting like the Colts are old. A 28-30 year old player isn't old, that is their prime.

Manning played great after he recovered from his injury last season. If he and Saturday weren't hurt the Colts don't start 3-4.

You want to say 3 years down the road when Manning is 36-37 their Window is closing, fine. But right now the Colts have as good a shot as anyone and have a great young team.

My point is I think it's hypocritical of Pat fans to say the Colts are old and their Window is closing when if you look at the Pats, they are (or were last year) one of the oldest teams in the league. I know they've had a lot of turnover this season, but by the logic around here that means the Pats "window is closing".

Anyway, Dungy leaving is my main question mark for the Colts. But Caldwell has been around for a long time and knows the players, the systems, the coaches etc. He's got a lot to live up to, but he's a very smart guy and hopefully he can get it done.

Like I said, I can't wait for this season to start. A healthy Manning and a D line that can actually stop the run? A healthy O line? Two stud running backs? Can't wait.

1) No one is saying the Colts window is closing because they are old. They are saying it is closing because they arent as good as the used to be.
2) Your argument for why Caldwell will be a good coach, is my argument for why he will not. You are expecting him to be Tony Dungy 2.0 using all of the same systems, players, coaches, basically being the stand-in. That has been tried many times, and has never worked. Ray Handley called, he said Caldwell will be gone in 2 years.

 

[Ring 6]

Manning won't win another playoff game? Sorry man, conversation over. We were having a decent discussion but with just total nonsense like that you've shown your colors. It's a waste of both our time now.

Have fun.

ITs not like he has won a whole lot of them before. He is now without his HC, OC, and OL coach, and his whiny attitude about it (before he was told to go on TV and say what Polian wanted him to) shows that even he knows the Colts are in trouble.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

OK Colts Fan

It appears we need to dial it down a lil. Also, don't get so defensive.

My 2007 comment refers to your earlier response to my post. In 2007, if the Pats lose ALL their "close" games, they go 13-3. 13-3 hardly denotes a "falling" team. In the end, the Pats 2007 wouldn't be materially different based on being on the wrong end of "one or two plays".

I don't know how much you watch your team, but you might notice that the Colts tend to use the same guys and the same formations. Age is a bigger factor if one guys is older vs several "specialists" of the same age.

Finally, the point for "rising" and "falling" is a material change in the team. An off year is different than a team materially being upgraded or downgraded.

The 2005 Steelers and 2006 Steelers were really not that much different and the team wasn't falling.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

You list the Jets as the #1 team on the rise (granted you say in no particular order and I guess my reading comprehension is not what it used to be) and then give two reasons why they won't be. A rookie QB and a rookie head coach usually means a team will be on at least a one year decline.

The 2008 Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens call you a liar.

 

[Ring 6]

Manning won't win another playoff game? Sorry man, conversation over. We were having a decent discussion but with just total nonsense like that you've shown your colors. It's a waste of both our time now.

Have fun.

How is that nonsense?
Manning has been in the NFL 11 years and only won a playoff game in 3 of them.
In other words on the THREE BEST of Mannings 11 Colt teams were able to win a playoff game. 3/11=27%
Based on history ASSUMING the 2009 Colts are as good as the AVERAGE Manning Colt squad over the last 11 years, (a big stretch) he has a 27% chance of winning a playoff game this year.
Further, unless this years team is better than the 8 Colt teams Manning led that never won a playoff game and as good as the 03,04 or 06 Colts the chances seem very slim. You yourself said they aren't as good as the 04 Colts, which, by the way won 1 playoff game.

Perhaps if regular season record and statistics is what you care about the decline to mediocrity seems sharp, but in terms of playoff success the decline from only winning a playoff game in 3 years out of 11 to not winning any anymore is a short trip.