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5 real wild-card candidates

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Fencer, Dec 27, 2009.

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  1. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    The teams at 8-7 are Pitt, Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Jesters.

    Two play bad teams next week. Two play division champs likely to use the game as a partial bye. One plays Miami. So it seems to be pretty much a lock that at least two will win, so that the wild-card teams will indeed come from that group.

    None, obviously, is a pushover. But all are eminently beatable.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2009
  2. bigcountry75

    bigcountry75 Rookie

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    I heard that the Ravens and the Jests control their destinies so if they win they are in.....Other than that I don't know
  3. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    Jets are the best bet
    Then Denver
    Then Baltimore
    Then Houston
    Pitt has the worst chance of getting in.

    I'm basing this on the idea that Cincy and Patriots will use the week as a bye. If they sit guys, then that's the order for qualifying.
  4. Brady'sButtBoy

    Brady'sButtBoy Rookie

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    Negative. Broncos and Jets win and they're in.

    The Donks play KC at Mile High and the Jets play Cincy at the closing game of the Meadowlands, with Cincy having nothing to play for...

    Thus, Denver would be #5 and Jests #6.

    Unless Vesuvius erupts, we play the Jets in the first round.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2009
  5. juny

    juny Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    Don't know how accurate Yahoo's NFL Playoff Generator is but if all the 8-7 teams win next week, then it's the Ravens and Jets w/ the Pats playing the Ravens.
  6. gmtaxi27

    gmtaxi27 Rookie

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    You are wrong. The Ravens beat the Broncos, so they are ahead of the Broncos. If Jets and Ravens win, they are in.

    More than likely we are going to face the Ravens in the first round.
  7. carolinatony

    carolinatony Rookie

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    Don't know how accurate Yahoo's NFL Playoff Generator is but if all the 8-7 teams win next week, then it's the Ravens and Jets w/ the Pats playing the Ravens.

    Thats what I thought as well.
  8. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    upstater1 has been all over it since day one, I'm going to trust him

    as far as the 'yahoo generator,' it has been wrong the whole time, even jerome bettis has talked about it on his show
  9. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    No it doesn't work that way.

    If Balt is tied with more than just the Broncos, then head-to-head doesn't count. You'd need to go to the next tiebreaker which is conference record, and then common opponents etc.

    It may still be that Baltimore gets in but you need to run through the scenarios.
  10. TheBostonStraggler

    TheBostonStraggler Rookie

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    NFL.com AFC playoff scenario, updated very recently, says the Jets and Denver control their own destiny:

    1 Indy
    2 SD
    3 Pats
    4 Cincy
    5 Denver
    6 Jets
    (on the outside looking in.....)
    7 Balt
    8 Texans
    9 Steelers

    As I see it, the Jets (Sanchez led) and Denver are very beatable games. Take the #3 seed and hope for win over SD and a Cincy win over Indy. AFCCG is then in Foxboro....
  11. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    The wording of the official NFL tiebreakers makes it difficult for me to determine who would get in. Here it is:

    NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

    Now, if Baltimore, Houston and Den end up tied, you can't go to head-to-head tiebreaker.

    So you go to conference record. Baltimore and Den are tied at conference record.

    Now, what do I do?

    Do I drop Houston at this point? The instructions don't tell me to do that, but I can infer that I am supposed to eliminate a team.

    If I eliminate Houston, then we go to the two team tiebreaker, and Baltimore gets in before Den.

    If this is true, I expect NE to play Baltimore, unless Balt loses or Cincy beats the Jets.

    If it's not true, then you go to common opponents tiebreaker, and Houston and Den are 3-2 while Balt is 1-4.

    So, using the same rationale keeping all 3 teams, the next tiebreaker is Strength of Victory. At this point I quit.

    Let's assume I should eliminate Houston. In that case, Baltimore does get in with a win.
  12. gmtaxi27

    gmtaxi27 Rookie

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  13. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    At this point there really is mass confusion, since I can't see how nfl.com says Broncos win and they're in.

    Makes no sense.

    I'm assuming it's Baltimore unless I wasn't supposed to eliminate Houston in the 3rd tiebreaker.
  14. bostonia3333

    bostonia3333 Rookie

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    Last edited: Dec 27, 2009
  15. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    What's he basing this on?

    ForgiVe me if I don't trust him since so many clowns (I mean experts) last week were using head-to-head as the tiebreaker not realizing it isn't in play when more than 2 teams tie. If he's basing it on head-to-head, he's likely wrong. if he has run through the other tiebreakers, he could be right.
  16. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    Jets get higher seed based on common opponents %, so they'd take on Cincy.
  17. gmtaxi27

    gmtaxi27 Rookie

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    Lets assume the Jets win. They get the #5 seed based on their record vs common opponents.

    If all other 8-7 teams win. Then you first have to break ties out of the division. Ravens beat out Steelers based on division record.

    Now its between Houston, Denver, Ravens. Houston is eliminated based on Conference record. Then its between Denver and Baltimore. Baltimore would get it based on head to head.

    I could be wrong, but I think this is the deal.
  18. bostonia3333

    bostonia3333 Rookie

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    Cincy would salivate over playing the Jets at home. They'll likely rest people to ensure playing against a rookie qb who is in a road playoff game. Looks like we have a shootout game with the Ravens ahead---not the best deal, but oh well.
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2009
  19. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    ESPN says if the season ended today Jets are #6 and Broncs are #5, NFL.com says the same thing.

    Hard to see how the Broncos could win and not get in.




    Playing Sexy Rexy and the J-E-T-S and sending them home again would be great. Wouldn't this be the last 3 times when the Jets made the playoffs they had to play us in Foxboro?
  20. gmtaxi27

    gmtaxi27 Rookie

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    That will change next week if the Jets and Ravens win. If the Ravens beat the Raiders that will improve their common opponent record vs the Broncos. Remember the Broncos lost to the Raiders last week.

    The Jets will also improve their record by a win against the Bengals, who the Broncos also played.
  21. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    Some of the common opponent scenarios don't kick in until next week. In some of the ties, the teams have 3 common opponents, and next week will make four.

    I don't trust anyone on this though.
  22. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    Something is really funky, however, since Den would still have a better common opponent record.

    There's a problem here, and the only way the NFL could be right on this and Shefter wrong is if Houston cannot be eliminated with conference record because of the tie between Balt and Den.
  23. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Here is the way I understand it if Jets, Ravens, Pitt, Texans and Broncos are all 9-7:

    1) Run through the 3-way tie-breaker, eliminating one team and repeating until two teams remain:

    - Steelers eliminated in round #1 because of worse divisional record than Ravens (step 1 of tie-breaker says to eliminate intra-division ties)
    - Texans eliminated in round #2 because of conference record
    - Ravens eliminated in round #3 because of common opponents

    2) Run through the 2-way tie-breaker

    - Broncos eliminated because of common opponents

    JETS GET #5 SEED

    3) Run through the 3-way tie-breaker again with remaining teams

    - Steelers eliminated in round #1 because of worse divisional record than Ravens (step 1 of tie-breaker says to eliminate intra-division ties)
    - Texans eliminated in round #2 because of conference record

    4) Run through the 2-way tie-breaker

    - Broncos eliminated because of head-to-head

    RAVENS GET #6 SEED
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2009
  24. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    That makes sense to me. The only way you get the NFL's result is if you move to the next tie-breaker without eliminating teams. In that case, Broncos get it over Ravens based on common opponents. The rules don't say you need to eliminate teams, but I assume that you do simply because it's logical.
  25. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    If Baltimore beats Oakland, we're playing Baltimore.

    If they lose, we play the Broncos.
  26. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    I assume you do eliminate teams because of the following:

    So this reads to me like you apply the 3-way tie-breaker to either establish a clear winner by one of the steps or eliminate teams until you get down to 2.
  27. blackglass3

    blackglass3 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So, how's this for wacky...The Jets get in by beating the Benglas, and then beat the Bengals again (do any of us really thing the Bengals won't bomb that first round game?). Then they will go to Indy. Indy is positioning themselves for thier annual playoff flameout. The Jets could honestly be in the AFC Championship game on some kind of crazy ***** crap like that.

    And imagine if we get their after beating Baltimore or Denver and then SD. Pats/Jets in Foxboro for the AFC Super Bowl berth. God would that be awesome!
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2009
  28. Gunnails

    Gunnails Rookie

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    ==============================================================

    Yes it would.:)
  29. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    That pretty much bottom-lines it. Good news is that Belichick has 2 weeks to prep for the Ravens and the Ravens will be coming off a west coast swing, playing their 3rd consecutive roadie.
  30. blackglass3

    blackglass3 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I know alot could happen from now until the end of January, but that would be one of the best AFCCG games they could get. Sportswriters wouldn't have enough time to go over all the storylines.
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