4 yr Roster Synopsis by Stan Jacksina at patsfans.com

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by jczxohn1, Apr 25, 2006.

  1. jczxohn1

    jczxohn1 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

  2. pats1

    pats1 Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

  3. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    I liked the "hits and misses" analysis. It's funny how every year, the Monday after the draft, every sports magazine and daily newspaper "grades" the teams on their drafts - yet we don't really know for years. What we need is a 4-year retrospective grade using "hits and misses" for all 32 teams. But I'll settle for just the Pats.

    Quick review of recent years (in my eyes):

    05 - DAY 1: Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur all go in the Dick Vitale "are you kiddin' me?" category in terms of hits. As in, you can't ask for much more. Thrust into starting NFL roles, held their own. Sanders, middling.
    DAY 2: Claridge, Cassel, Stokes - value (to someone) TBD. Cassel might or might not be the developmental QB the Pats keep trying to find. Claridge might or might not get into the mix this year at LB. Stokes, Mr. Irrelevant, I'm not sure even made the team.
    RETRO-GRADE: A. Short of turning up another Brady (and he only blossomed by freak circumstance, his second season,) you can't ask for much more.

    04 - DAY 1: Another good day 1, perhaps a tiny bit less so. Wilfork and Watson, by this year, were regular starters and good ones at that. Marquise Hill can't be called a bust, but needs to get some rotation before we can judge. Gus Scott impresses everybody in Foxboro. Hey Bill, want to share with the whole class? Dexter Reid has played about at the level you would expect, nothing fantastic. Cedric Cobbs is a miss at RB.
    DAY 2: PK Sam and Christian Morton. Misses.
    RETRO-GRADE: B. 2 hits, 2 TBD in early rounds. 1 middling hit (Reid), 1 miss (Cobbs) in middle rounds. 2 misses in late rounds.

    03 - DAY 1: Ty Warren - now a starter and a good one on one of the better D Lines in football. Eugene Wilson - a monster in 04, and will be again. Bethel Johnson is the sole miss on day one, at the second round, but a near miss. He can run back kicks and catch the odd long ball. It's not that he can't contribute, he just can't contribute as much as the Pats want. (Yet?) Klecko, another near miss. You want to fit him in, you just can't. Asante Samuel rounds out day 1 with a hit.
    DAY 2: Koppen - hit, plays starting center. Kingsbury - miss. Nead - miss. Tully, hit waiting to happen, I think. Ethan Kelly, miss.
    DAY 1 - 3 hits, 2 near misses (juries still out on these 2.)
    DAY 2 - 1 hit, 1 potential hit, 3 misses.
    Retro-grade: B+

    02 - DAY 1: Graham. Branch. Rohan Davey (whoops.) Jarvis Green. 3 hits and a miss.
    DAY 2: Antoine Womack, miss. David Givens, hit.
    DAY 1, 3 hits, 1 miss. Day 2, 1 hit, 1 miss.
    Retro-grade: A

    For four years, we have 9 confirmed misses, counting Stokes, on whom I just have no info, out of 31 picks - or just over 2 misses a year, out of about 8 picks. I don't know other teams as well... but that sounds like an incredible draft record. It's amazing how many of today's "seems like they've always been there" guys - stars, even - come from these drafts. Overall grade? A. It was tempting to go with an A every year, but I figured that's just my homer instinct.

    Anybody know how other teams stack up by comparison?

  4. jct

    jct Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    We are rated as 1 of the top 5 drafting teams.
  5. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Good grades, Va!

    THAT is how to grade drafts ... not the instant name-recognition game the pundits play.
  6. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Nice one Stan!
  7. spacecrime

    spacecrime Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    I miss the logic here. I find 03 to be better than 05.
  8. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Has bb been the genious everyone says on Day Two? In the four years discussed, we have Koppen and Givens.
  9. Mike the Brit

    Mike the Brit Minuteman Target PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks, Stan and PfVA. I too think that PfVA has underestimated 03 (and been too generous to 04 which, Wilfork and Watson apart, has made no contribution.)
  10. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    I knew sooner or later tinkering with the particulars would be the focus (which is definitely appropriate.) The main point was, even counting day 2, the Pats are coming away with a 75% "workable" rate, 25% they just can't do anything with. Also a very high rate of starters and "stars," insofar as you can say "star" on a Belichick team.

    One caveat - As you get closer to present, the grade gets skewed upward, because you don't know people are busts yet. E.G., since we don't know that you can call Marquis Hill a "bust," he's in the TBD category, whereas anybody drafted in 02 has been gauged by now. That inflates '05 more than other years. And '03 has those big question marks attached, in the persons of Bethel Johnson and Dan Klecko. If they seriously produce this year, then revise the grade. But neither is a real success story thus far. You could put them in the "minor hit" category, just for playing, but I was erring on the side of non-enthusiasm as best I could.

    In judging whether BB is a "late round genius:" Well, we do have Brady (who is out of the date range), Givens, and Koppen, three bona fide starters in the league, Brady the best at his position. Late rounders from within the date range include Givens plus Koppen and maybe TBC - less than one per year. But then, Day 2 is a crap shoot by nature. You'd have to do this same kind of breakdown with other teams for comparison.

    I for one was shocked to go over, year by year, the addition of household names. I was more impressed by others with '05 because the O Line made an okay showing with two rookies holding down the fort - and they've both earned starting jobs. Hobbs too. (Barring anything jarring in this year's draft/TC.) I gave 05 extra credit for immediate impact, and of course, the Day 2s are all still question marks, except for Stokes, who was, after all, the last man picked in the draft.

  11. Mike the Brit

    Mike the Brit Minuteman Target PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, if it's immediate impact you're after, 03 is the year (Wilson, Samuel, Johnson and Koppen making a big contribution to a Superbowl team; Warren, Klecko and TBC doing their bit). Must be as good as 05 so far (Kaczur and Mankins started on a less successful team).
  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    My point is that I don't think bb should be considered a Draft Two draft genious because he get ONE signficant contributer per year on Day Two, even though he usually has an extra draft choice or two to work with. And yes, one Brady is worth five years of Day Two drafts.

  13. jct

    jct Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    The big effect of this offseason thus far has been our team getting younger.
    Most of the departing vets exceeded 30yo.
    Age of maximum physical strength is 25...
  14. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Mike, Hobbs also started on that less successful team, and is currently a starting Cb on the depth chart, for what it's worth.

    I THINK - though this is from what seems like vague memory at this point - that Wilson started all year, but Samuel was third fiddle behind Poole and Law most of the year. I seem to remember him always either intercepting the ball or gettnig beat for big yardage or a TD.

    Mankins and Kaczur pulled our collective nuts from the fire last year; we were going to have to call some guy back from a car dealership or something if they didn't work out. The offensive line didn't turn into the sieve that the secondary turned into because of these two guys.

    Big boost in 03, agreed. Like I said, I felt like giving the Pats 4 "A"s for the 4 years, but resisted the impulse. It's 3 years later now, and if Johnson and Klecko pan out, I can agree with you... but as I said, it's 3 years later. They're on the bubble this year, for a reason, and might be considered confirmed busts in a year. Speed alone, or heart alone, only get you so far... that said, I'm waiting for both those guys to break past the perpetual-bubble phase.

  15. Mike the Brit

    Mike the Brit Minuteman Target PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Good points, PfVA.

    I think that the technique of counting "starters", especially in the players' rookie seasons, has its flaws. I don't think Kaczur would have started but for Light's injury; Hobbs but for a whole series of injuries; Wilson wouldn't have started but for the sudden departure of Lawyer Milloy in 03. On the other hand, Warren had little playing time his rookie season, despite a raft of injuries, but now he's full value for the pick. All in all, my gut still says that 03 was a super draft (even allowing that Bethel, TBC and Klecko may all turn out to be disappointments) 04 was a big disappointment (especially given that we actually had TWO first round picks) and 05 is somewhere in between. Who knows how good Mankins and Kaczur will turn out to be? Some people are sending Cassel to the Hall of Fame already. If he turns into a decent Number Two quarterback that will up the return on the draft immensely.
  16. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Okay... I think the point that BB might not be the second day genius people paint him as, could be true... although again, you would expect all misses in Day 2. He's also got more of a rep as a "middle rounds... and sometimes even in the late rounds" genius.

    What we need to do to figure out the legitimacy of that reputation is pick some other teams and look for contributors, much less starters and stars, coming from the late rounds.

    As far as disappointing drafts go, let's look at 01, the year before this 4-year experiment:

    1 6 Richard Seymour DE Georgia
    2 48 Matt Light T Purdue
    3 86 Brock Williams CB Notre Dame
    4 96 Kenyatta Jones T South Florida
    4 119 Jabari Holloway TE Notre Dame
    5 163 Hakim Akbar OLB Washington
    6 180 Arther Love TE South Carolina State
    6 200 Leonard Myers CB Miami
    7 216 Owen Pochman K Brigham Young
    7 239 T.J. Turner OLB Michigan State

    2 Hits and 8 misses. And the hits were exactly where you'd expect, in rounds 1 and 2.

    Trust me, the results get worse as you go backward from the Belichick era. You start seeing runs of drafts that produce staples of the team for a couple years (say, three present starters), then nothing - I mean nothing - for whole years. All this to say, maybe these 4 drafts all get "A"s in retrospect, and the divisions are more like A+, A, and A-. Again, I felt like way too much of a homer going that route. And again, with the maybes still lingering from '03, that draft might turn out to be spectacular (f'rinstance, what if Bethel learns to run routes this year, drinks the kool-aid, and learns to love the Patriot Way?)

    Hey, how's Hart Lee Dykes doing these days, anyway? ;)


    Edited to say: 95 and 96 were blatantly outstanding, by the way!
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2006
  17. Pats726

    Pats726 Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    The big surprise to me was the injury factor and how that played a big part..but it is true if one goes back further..many more busts.. Bobby Grier era?? YIKES!!!!!
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2006

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