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4 yard loss! Cobbs, you're killing me

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by brady2brown, Aug 31, 2006.

  1. brady2brown

    brady2brown Rookie

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    Well, at least he's more likely to make the practice squad, and a lot less likely to be "snapped" up by the JESTS.
  2. pats1

    pats1 Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Hey, what have I been saying all week? :D

    (I do feel bad for the guy though. After his fumble, he looked pretty down on the sidelines. Faulk came over to cheer him up the best he could.)
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2006
  3. brady2brown

    brady2brown Rookie

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    In the "full pay for Cobbs on the practice squad thread" you said he couldn't make the 53 because he was a "freakin' UDFA" who had "no NFL experience" and that you were "disturbed" that others felt he had a shot.

    As I said in another thread, if you judge a player by draft position, you will end up with the correct result most of the time, without ever having to watch a single play. Very efficient.

    Some of us, though, enjoy looking for diamonds in the UFDA scrap pile. This rarely results the way we hope at first, but it is fun to see a player do well, even if he later bombs. In the end we feel a special bond with players like Gay and Wright who beat the odds. Cobbs will be even more sweet, if he ends up doing well, because of enduring abuse for saying he might make the 53.
  4. Zuma

    Zuma Rookie

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    I don't know...somehow his 4.2 average just doesnt seem as bad as Evans' 2.7 ave.
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2006
  5. meangreenfan

    meangreenfan Rookie

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    Cobbs can gain more yards and was better out on the receiving end. He also made a ST tackle on a kick off but unfortunately the fumble and dropped pass will hurt him. Even as a homer I think Cobbs will end up on the practice squad or another team you guys are just too deep and veteran counts for alot.
  6. OldEnglandPatriot

    OldEnglandPatriot Rookie

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    Naked stats are soooo over-rated in football at times. For instance, it would have been pretty hard for Evans to have run for more than one yard when he was given the ball on the one-yard line.

    It's also definitely harsh to judge a guy on a fumble; they happen to the best. But for me, Evans brings more to the party.
  7. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Wrong. An incovenient truth against your point is that Cobbs also had a 1 yd TD, so they offset.

    Evans brings more to the party???? He's a lousy blocker and Cobbs tonight made a ST tackle. Cobbs has already shown in the 4 games he's the better receiver and more productive runner.

    No, Evans does NOT bring more to the party. He's a journeyman jag who's been around and will not improve any over the rest of his career. Cobbs is still growing in his potential.
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2006
  8. OldEnglandPatriot

    OldEnglandPatriot Rookie

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    I'll bow to your intense interest and emotional investment in the matter, and the fact that sadly I couldn't watch the middle two pre-season games.
  9. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Aaah no wonder you haven't been watching the whole preseason. Thus you don't know what the hoopla and debate is about. Well then let's do an impartial compilation of the preseason stats and see where Evans and Cobbs actually stand from a performance only point of view.

    Attempts/Yards/Average/Longest Gain/Touchdowns

    Game 1
    Rushing
    P.Cobbs 5 25 5.0 11 0
    H.Evans 6 12 2.0 5 1

    Receiving
    P.Cobbs 3 80 26.7 57 1

    Game 2
    Rushing
    H.Evans 5 28 5.6 12 0
    P.Cobbs 8 26 3.3 5 0

    Receiving
    P. Cobbs 1 19 19 0
    H. Evans 2 14 9 1

    Game 3
    Rushing
    P.Cobbs 13 92 7.1 36 2
    H.Evans 8 16 2.0 7 1

    Receiving
    P.Cobbs 1 1 1.0 1 0
    H.Evans 1 8 8.0 8 0

    Game 4
    Rushing
    P. Cobbs 12 45 3.75 11 1
    H. Evans 12 34 2.83 9 1

    Receiving
    P. Cobbs 2 15 12 0
    H. Evans 2 12 9 0

    Just a moment as we tally up the totals. And I realize that 4 games is a small sample size but it is the best data we currently have.

    Totals Rushing
    P. Cobbs 38 188 4.95 36 3
    H. Evans 31 90 2.90 12 3

    Totals Receiving
    P. Cobbs 7 115 16.43 57 1
    H. Evans 5 34 6.8 9 0

    And there you have it by the cold hard numbers.
    Since I went to the trouble of compiling and adding up the stats I might as well give it a little analysis.

    From what I see here my eyes did not deceive me. The numbers don't lie. Cobbs is by far the more explosive back whether he is running the football or catching it he has the chance to make the big play. This is a guy who can actually stretch a defense.

    However if you're after a plodding goal line back that will rarely get more than 3 yards per run than Evans is your man. He can certainly punch it into the endzone eventually if you give him 3 or so chances in a row at it.

    I know that the first Atlanta game probably skewed Cobbs numbers a little but it is surprising how dangerous he is in the passing game averaging over 16 yards per catch.

    Finally Cobbs Longest Gain numbers again indicate how dangerous he can be on any given play. If I was looking to replace Faulk in the near future, and face it he isn't exactly a young buck anymore, this is the type of RB that I'd want.

    As for Evans I like his toughness and his size, but his numbers just fail to excite me. I've seen what he can do, and he just doesn't have any wiggle or slither. He is the atypical 3 yards and a cloud of dust guy. And I think those guys are a dime a dozen in this league.

    Go ahead and make your own judgments but those are the final numbers as this preseason comes to a close.
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2006
  10. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    I respectfully disagree. Evans is a better blocker in the passing game. He's not great, but I'll bet he's better than Cobbs as a lead blocker. Evans made 3 ST tackles against Washington. How come you're not bringing those up? I also disagree that Cobbs is the better receiver. He can do more after the catch, true, but it looks to me that Evans has better hands. And yes, Cobbs has shown reasonably well in four pre-season games. Evans has shown reasonably well in regular-season games. He actually has a track record that counts, instead of trying to project one. And Cobbs appears to have fumbling problems.

    Now, your point about Cobbs getting better over time is true. Frankly, though, I don't care about that. I want the RB who's going to do the most to help us win THIS year. To me, that's Evans, hands down.
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2006
  11. Zuma

    Zuma Rookie

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    Good points VJC! I think what people also fail to understand is that Mills will be handling FB duties...which could possibly make Evans expendable. Plus...if LOMO's knee is not ready by game 1...that will also help Cobbs chances...
  12. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Question, Dryheat: Can you tell me one thing that Evans does on the football field, just one thing, that could be rated as more than mediocre (JAG+, if you will)?

    Personally, I see the Patriots losing NOTHING if they have to be forced to actually face a season (this season or 3 season hence) without Heath Evans. Somehow, I think they'd survive ok. Cobbs, meanwhile is Faulk injury insurance.
  13. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    I'm not claiming Evans isn't a JAG. He's easily replaceable. If Pass were healthy, I don't think he'd make the team. I think Cobbs is also a JAG, and every NFL team has a Patrick Cobbs on their roster right now. But since you asked:

    Well, in breaking several tackles on back to back runs against Washington he didn't look like a JAG.

    A 100 yard rushing game against (I believe) Miami last year was something un-JAG like.

    Evans hasn't fumbled in two pre-season games this year.


    Cobbs has PS eligibility. I recommend we use it.
  14. brady2brown

    brady2brown Rookie

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    Thanks for putting it all in perspective. I still like Cobbs over Evans (having plenty of evidence of Evans ceiling), but think BB may go with 3 RBs again (Dillon-Maroney-Faulk) with Pass being cut outright, or maybe PUP.

    Still to early to see how Cobbs will do, but I would love to see him on the 53 or practice squad, and eventually be a contributor on the team.
  15. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    I find it somewhat amusing that the same people that want to string up Faulk by his gnads for his propensity to fumble are loudly backing Cobbs.

    In 45 touches he has fumbled twice. That is a fumble for every 27.5 touches, which is not very good.

    By comparison, Kevin Faulk fumbled once every 31.3 touches his first two (and clearly worst) seasons. Over the past three season, it has improved to once per 48.25 touches. This also is not great, not even all that good, but it's much better than Cobbs has done against mostly 2nd and 3rd teamers.
  16. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    That's a huge issue with me. I don't care if he has Reggie Bush moves. If you can't hold onto the football, you're not very useful.
  17. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Questions:

    1) Is Faulk still learning his way in the NFL? Is Cobbs?

    2) Will Faulk improve with more time? Could Cobbs? Your stats above show that Faulk has improved his numbers with experience. I'm not saying Cobbs is even in the same ballpark with Faulk now, but in 2 years he may. That's why I call him Faulk Insurance.

    BTW, in response to Dryheat's solution that we would still have Cobbs if we put him on the PS, I'd say sure------he'll remain untouched by 31 other NFL teams if we PS him as much as a tube of lipstick in front of Tammy Faye Baker.
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2006
  18. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    We've been through this before. AJ actually puts it best, so I'll attempt to paraphrase him. Every team has a promising rookie RB in camp, that's spent all summer learning the system. In order to be signed off of our PUP list, Cobbs will have to spend the season on the other team's 53 man roster or on the IR. Putting him on the IR without Cobbs being hurt would likely trigger an immediate grievance. So a team's going to have to cut one of their players who knows their system in order to sign a practice hero from another team.

    Secondly, if BB wants to keep Cobbs, he can pay him his full salary while on the PS, with a word to Cobbs that he has an excellent shot at making the team next year. Stick around, learn the system, work on the fumble-itis.

    Believe me, I felt the same way two years ago that you do now, with Cedric Cobbs. Andy said he wouldn't be signed from PUP, I said he would. We actually looked at transactions from 3-5 years, and a practice squad player got signed by another team 3 times in those years.

    Now maybe a team catches an injury bug, like the Colts did last year and sing Chapman. Fine. I don't think that decision came back to haunt us (the decision to slip Chapman to the PS, not the decision to only carry 3 RBs. That did hurt us.). It's rare. Teams like to pick up Patriots cuts for their winning experience and leadership. But as a rookie, Cobbs doesn't qualify in that department either.

    On another thread I posted the top 20 RBs in preseason. Cobbs was number 6 or so, and there were about 10 guys nobody had ever heard of. They had great pre-seasons. I don't think anybody's salivating over the thought of adding one to their team.
  19. lobster

    lobster Rookie

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    My take is:
    1. Faulk played well against the Giants starters and earned the start against the Bills.

    2. Dillon was marginal against the Giants with 3 yards per carry against the starters but he can play FB as well as Evans can.

    3. I see Maroney playing mostly in the 2nd half of the season when the Defense tends to be worn down some.

    4. I don't see much value in keeping Evans, who should be available to be re-signed if needed.

    5. There is a tiny opening for Cobbs. His fumble in the 3nd offensive series was huge obviously, but before that he had 12 yards on 3 runs. That was the Pat's 2nd best running performance to that point. He also failed to make an easy short pass in the 2nd offensive series because I recall he was looking down-field.

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