3rd down and RZ stats

[Deus Irae]

Weren't the Colts perfect on TDs in the Red Zone? Jets were 9/16 on 3rd down. I'd say those were key components to the respective losses. Obviously other plays had an impact, but if you were to boil down the losses to one Problem Area, I'd say those qualify. Hold Indy to just one FG, or make just one or two more third down stops **cough* 3rd & 15 **cough** and you win.

ETA: The losses can be analyzed and argued six ways to Sunday, and everyone will obviously have different opinions as to what the biggest problems are, it's all just a big mosaic after all. I think it's all healthy discussion, but this is just one point where posters will have to agree to disagree.

But, again, the reality is that you can point to specific, easy plays that had nothing to do with 3rd down or endzone and see where games were lost. That drop by Gaffney in the Colts game is a prime example. On the other hand, The Jets converted 56% of their third downs, but still needed to go to overtime and win the coin toss to win the game.

The 2004 Patriots won the Super Bowl despite being 21st in the league in 3rd down defense, and they were 15th in 2001. I'm as big a stats fan as the next person, but stats need context to be truly helpful. This year, the team that almost never beats itself is beating itself.

 

[Deus Irae]

Deus I hate to tell you but your just completely wrong. You clearly did not understand my argument because you interperted as "Your right so ill whine about other things" Let me spell it out for you in simple terms: My point is that the only reason we were in position to be scorned by a few bad breaks at the end of games is because of some recurring, consistent major weaknesses that can not be attributed to luck but rather deficiency. Yes you are not wrong to say if Gaffney catches that pass or the coin flip goes our way we probably do win those games. But this team has shown repeatedly that it struggles in the red zone on offense majorly, that it struggles on defense in the red zone and that it has a hard time with third downs and that is why we were in position to be burned by bad lack.

I'm sorry, but that's just not correct. Unless a team is absolutely 'elite', bad breaks at the end of games are recipes for disaster, and 3rd down efficiency and the like don't matter. Again, just looking at the Patriots, we see a team that is 8th in the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage, but only 19th in total points.

If we were a better team we would be up by more and those breaks wouldnt hurt us. The stats clearly back up those points so instead of you focusing on a few bad breaks I think you should focus on the clear holes in this team instead of saying "Oh if the Patriots got breaks late in every game they would be 8-2" because they have gotten many breaks late in some of their wins no team gets every break every time. For instance against KC and the Rams they got many breaks that helped them win those close games. As easily as you could say they are two plays from being 6-4 I could say they are two other plays from being 4-6. The bottom line is they are 6-4 and their luck has evened out and they are fighting for their playoff lives because of their holes, not because of any bad luck so stop saying if the win the coin toss then they would be 7-3 and start realizing why they were even in position to be burned by a coin toss!

The stats do no such thing, and that's abundantly clear. You yourself concede the issue in the Colts game. Looking to the Jets game also helps shed some light. For example, Koppen's bad snap on 1st and 10 from the Jets 38 led to a 3rd and 21 on the Jets 49. A situation like that completely changes the utility of the data.

 

[SVN]

No, my logic is that the losses this year don't center around the struggles in the red zone or the 3rd down defense. I'm not saying that those struggles shouldn't be worked on and improved, because they should, and I'm not saying that they haven't contributed at all to the 6-4 record. I'm saying that those numbers are pointing to a problem but are not, themselves, the problem.

maybe you are right although i have to respectfully disagree. We had calls go our way too, bills game - welker catch out of bounds, SF game, ticky tacky holding call which led to the 3rd down conversion to a 1st down when faulk ultimately score. they all even out and ultimately if you get off the field on 3rd down and play RZ defense consistently better you are going get more opportunities to win the game even if we drop catches or lose the coin toss.i personally dont think the RZ offense is a big a issue as 3rd down and RZ defense.

 

[Deus Irae]

maybe you are right although i have to respectfully disagree. We had calls go our way too, bills game - welker catch out of bounds, SF game, ticky tacky holding call which led to the 3rd down conversion to a 1st down when faulk ultimately score. they all even out and ultimately if you get off the field on 3rd down and play RZ defense consistently better you are going get more opportunities to win the game even if we drop catches or lose the coin toss.i personally dont think the RZ offense is a big a issue as 3rd down and RZ defense.

I don't buy the "even out" argument because I dont think that they will always even out, although I understand your point. However, your point is helping my argument. Because this team is not an elite team, mistakes that it could once overcome are now fatal, and wins that were once assured are now far from certain. Falling from the #1 scoring offense of all time to the #9 scoring offense in the league has a lot more to do with losing games this year than does the struggles of the 3rd down defense, and that fall isn't just about red zone offense.

 

[SVN]

I don't buy the "even out" argument because I dont think that they will always even out, although I understand your point. However, your point is helping my argument. Because this team is not an elite team, mistakes that it could once overcome are now fatal, and wins that were once assured are now far from certain. Falling from the #1 scoring offense of all time to the #9 scoring offense in the league has a lot more to do with losing games this year than does the struggles of the 3rd down defense, and that fall isn't just about red zone offense.

well...as i said ,idont particularly care about the RZ offense. We have won games in the past with 9-6 scores.And falling from #1 offense to #9 combined with the injuries in the D have exposed the defensive issues. Scoring 39 pts a game masks a lot of issues and iam not saying the offense is to fault here.They are more than doing their job . No one is really to fault but defense injuries . Playing good 3rd down defense can help us more win these games than just drops. Every team has critical drops .Even the jets had a sure TD dropped up 7-0 and ended up with a FG.
Look at a team like baltimore. They havent had an offense for ages. The steelers this yr are struggling on offense but still their #1 D is keeping them in games.
Just my own opinion , a better defense on 3rd down can be a bigger help than just not dropping catches since they do happen . The more our offense is on the field, the better we have chances to make more catches.

 

[Rob0729]

Unfortunately, Red Zone and third down defense has been a problem for 2-3 seasons now. We didn't let teams in the red zone as much in 2007 or 2006, but I think the success rate was pretty high. During the Super Bowl years, the defense were famous for being incredibly stout in the red zone and on third downs.

I don't know what it is. Is it Dean Pees and his coaching or the players lack the talent or aren't executing in these situations? I think it is a little of both. It is clear of the latter since I have seen a lot of bad tackling and defenders seeming not to recognize where the first down marker and engaging the receivers after they reach the marker.

 

[SVN]

Unfortunately, Red Zone and third down defense has been a problem for 2-3 seasons now. We didn't let teams in the red zone as much in 2007 or 2006, but I think the success rate was pretty high. During the Super Bowl years, the defense were famous for being incredibly stout in the red zone and on third downs.

I don't know what it is. Is it Dean Pees and his coaching or the players lack the talent or aren't executing in these situations? I think it is a little of both. It is clear of the latter since I have seen a lot of bad tackling and defenders seeming not to recognize where the first down marker and engaging the receivers after they reach the marker.

yeah, this is a disease which has suddenly cropped up for this defense. they used to be a sure tackling team most of the time.now lot of people go for hits.

 

[BPF]

This year, the team that almost never beats itself is beating itself.

It's funny but true to say that a team that commits so few penalties, which takes focus and discipline, is losing focus at some key junctures in games that lead to losses.

 

[cstjohn17]

Stat check - Reiss' Pieces - Boston.com

ouch....

Those stats were brutal.. Let me introduce you to the next Defensive Coordinator, Mr. Romeo Crennell

 

[SVN]

Those stats were brutal.. Let me introduce you to the next Defensive Coordinator, Mr. Romeo Crennell

crennel is more friendly to mangini than BB , i suspect he will end up there.

 

[captain stone]

Why do you think that? RAC & BB were both with the jints when ManJudas was still in school, probably narcing on classmates for smoking pot.

Anyway, here's my take on the missed opportunities vs. the dolts: when Gaffney dropped the TD pass, there were about 30 seconds left in the 3rd quarter; when Gostkowski kicked off to Indy, there were about 11-1/2 minutes left in the 4th quarter. So about 4 minutes had elapsed from the game clock; that's 4 minutes which Payaton could have used to mount a final drive, if needed. Besides, the Pats still drove to the dolt 7 and converted the 4th/1, except that our genius HC, doing his best Sperm Edwards/Fatso Reid impersonation, called TO to kick a gay GF, instead of coaching like he had a pair and actually wanted to, you know, win the effin game and show Dungheap who's boss. But I guess we now know who's the boss, because Dad of the Year has beaten Little Bill 4 of the last 5 games.

So while people are blaming Gaffney - and only Gaffney - for the loss, save some humble pie for the coaching staff, too.

 

[TruthSeeker]

The team is a dropped pass and a coin flip away from being 8-2, despite the numbers you're citing. The team is 9th in the league in scoring defense, not 29th.

It's easy to throw around hypotheticals; that's what losers do. If they actually *won* the games, then people wouldn't be doing the hypotheticals. (Note that winning a coin flip doesn't win you the game; you actually have to make the plays on the field like the Jets did when they converted a 3rd and 15 which was much more significant than a coin flip).

The Patriots have played like a 6-4 team having more positive than negative, but often not good enough to seal the deal. It is what it is; hopefully they'll turn it around. But until their defense starts pulling its weight, I don't see it. The demise of the Patriots defense has been a concern all year and giving up 34 points to the Jets has done nothing to lessen that concern.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

It's funny but true to say that a team that commits so few penalties, which takes focus and discipline, is losing focus at some key junctures in games that lead to losses.

Exactly. So you wonder how much they're playing to avoid penalties, or at least if somehow that factors in. If that's true then it would hurt their "going in for the kill" mentality. Personally I don't think our D is as bad and bereft as some claim but it's interesting when you throw our penalty stat into this discussion.

 

[nepatz11]

Deus let me revise: I am changing from saying you are wrong to saying you are being myopic. It is true that the Pats are a handful of plays from being 8-2, but it is EVERY BIT MUCH AS TRUE that they are a handful of plays from being 4-6. The bottom line is when a team is 29th in red zone defense and 27th in 3rd downs they put themselves in position to lose games. Sometimes they catch the breaks and sometimes they don't but the real issue is that they are in position to be burned by things like key drops and coin flips. Yes close games are inevitable because this is the NFL but IMO we would have been in much better position to win the close games we have been in if we were better in red zone offense, defense and third downs.

For example yes the Gaffney drop hurt us but if we could have stopped Indy on their game winning FG drive we would have had time to score in a tie game. Or if we weren't taking field goals instead of TD's we would have been up by a lot late in the game. It probably still would have been a close game but we would have been ahead instead of down or tied.

 

[Deus Irae]

Deus let me revise: I am changing from saying you are wrong to saying you are being myopic. It is true that the Pats are a handful of plays from being 8-2, but it is EVERY BIT MUCH AS TRUE that they are a handful of plays from being 4-6. The bottom line is when a team is 29th in red zone defense and 27th in 3rd downs they put themselves in position to lose games. Sometimes they catch the breaks and sometimes they don't but the real issue is that they are in position to be burned by things like key drops and coin flips. Yes close games are inevitable because this is the NFL but IMO we would have been in much better position to win the close games we have been in if we were better in red zone offense, defense and third downs.

For example yes the Gaffney drop hurt us but if we could have stopped Indy on their game winning FG drive we would have had time to score in a tie game. Or if we weren't taking field goals instead of TD's we would have been up by a lot late in the game. It probably still would have been a close game but we would have been ahead instead of down or tied.

You're wrong. I don't know how else to put it gently. I'm not the one being myopic. I'm the one pointing out that you need to look beyond a couple of bad statistics. The Jets game is a perfect example:

4 trips to the red zone: 3 touchdowns and 1 field goal.

Defensively, the Patriots forced 4 3-and-outs from the Jets, and had only 2 of their own.

The 3rd down defense didn't give up a special teams touchdown. The red zone offense didn't see Watson fumble the ball without getting hit. Yes, the biggest 'failure' of the game was that blown 3rd down in OT, but the biggest plays in the game that got them to that point had nothing to do with red zones or 3rd down defenses:

ST touchdown
Koppen's botched snap
Watson's fumble
Heath Evans failing to gain a yard on 3rd and 1 folllowed by a sack of Cassel on 4th down
Coin toss

 

[jbb9s]

In the spirit of the turn this thread has taken, I just wanted to point out that the Patriots are (A) A Troy Brown TD instead of a Champ Bailey Pick 6 (B) A Reche Cladwell TD catch and (C) and a Merriwether INT away from being a 6 time super bowl winner and having 19-0 post season record since 2001.

 

[captain stone]

...Yes, the biggest 'failure' of the game was that blown 3rd down in OT, but the biggest plays in the game that got them to that point had nothing to do with red zones or 3rd down defenses:

ST touchdown
Koppen's botched snap
Watson's fumble
Heath Evans failing to gain a yard on 3rd and 1 folllowed by a sack of Cassel on 4th down
Coin toss...

...and don't forget that if the HC of the NEP had coached...to win...the game, and gone for the game-ending 2-point conversion, then 3rd/15 never would have happened. Did any of the shyte-for-brains lovers of Lord Favrequad & the Jesters mention this possibility at all, during any of the post-game shows?

 

[Deus Irae]

...and don't forget that if the HC of the NEP had coached...to win...the game, and gone for the game-ending 2-point conversion, then 3rd/15 never would have happened. Did any of the shyte-for-brains lovers of Lord Favrequad & the Jesters mention this possibility at all, during any of the post-game shows?

ESPN.com: NFL - Overtime format works -- for now

The two-point conversion has a 42 percent success ratio.

A coin flip is 50%.

 

[cstjohn17]

Though about this more... the 3rd down and red zone stats tell me the team has trouble covering and / or trouble getting pressure of the QB... nothing really surprising.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Eggs-actly, Batman. Instead of being 8-2 with a first-round bye, we are 6-4 & fighting for our PO lives. With just average RZ O & D and average 3rd-down D, we beat the dolts & jesters by > a TD.

Average? Those are well BELOW average.

Third-down defense
53 of 122 (43.4 percent)
NFL rank: 27th

Red-zone offense (based on TD percentage)
38 trips, 19 touchdowns (50 percent)
NFL rank: 21st

Red-zone defense (based on TD percentage)
29 trips, 18 touchdowns (62.1 percent)
NFL rank: 29th

There's only 30 some teams in the league. The Pats are nearly dead last in those categories. It's a wonder that they have a winning record right now. Cassel needs to keep improving. And the Pats offense needs to start scoring TDs instead of field goals in the redzone if they want to make the playoffs. The playcalling and execution has been putrid in those areas. And obviously when you can't leave the field on 3rd and long, that leads to the other team scoring backbreaker points as well.