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3rd down and RZ stats

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by SVN, Nov 18, 2008.

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  1. SVN

    SVN Hall of Fame Poster

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  2. swheeler23

    swheeler23 In the Starting Line-Up

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  3. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    The last three stats are why the Pats have been an average team, not a top one.
     
  4. captain stone

    captain stone Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Eggs-actly, Batman. Instead of being 8-2 with a first-round bye, we are 6-4 & fighting for our PO lives. With just average RZ O & D and average 3rd-down D, we beat the dolts & jesters by > a TD.
     
  5. Deus Irae

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    The team is a dropped pass and a coin flip away from being 8-2, despite the numbers you're citing. The team is 9th in the league in scoring defense, not 29th.
     
  6. BionicPatriot

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    Well said my friend. That's exactly what it is.

    What's it show? A team that's close, just coming up short.

    This team can go down the field, they just don't score when they need to.

    They can be an OK defense, but they can't stop anyone when they need to. The RZ is just horrendous. 18 TDs in [/B]29 posessions, after the super bowl, how the f*ck does that happen?
     
  7. BionicPatriot

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    What they show is the offense not scoring when it had to in certain situations.

    It also shows the defense not stopping teams in big situations.

    Not trying to start a fight, but those stats symbolize this team. It's hard to say otherwise.
     
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  8. Deus Irae

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    No, it's not hard to say otherwise at all. As I pointed out, a dropped pass and a coin flip makes this team 8-2. I'd say that mental mistakes and bad luck symbolize this team this season.
     
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  9. SVN

    SVN Hall of Fame Poster

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    probably you are right but hypotheticals go both ways. if the pass is caught, maybe we give a 80 yrd TD pass from manning to wayne too. anything can happen. Coin flip probably is true but we were also 24-6 due to some 3rd down play both on off and defense.We converted a bunch of 3rd downs in the bills game to keep the last drive going so it helped us get the win. Who know if the first 3rd and 9 pass to aiken was not made what wouldve happened.So it goes both ways in my opinion.just my 2 cents.
     
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  10. Deus Irae

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    I hear you, but that's just two concrete examples that had nothing to do with red zone or third down. Others could be things like Watson putting the ball on the ground without being hit, just as another example. I understand that the team is struggling mightily on 3rd down defense, and that it's been forced to take field goals rather than touchdowns too often in red zone situations. My point is that even with such struggles, this team could still be 8-2 if other areas of the game were clicking as they should be.

    Without Brady, Harrison, et al, this team is just not that good, and people need to adjust expectations and complaints accordingly.
     
  11. signbabybrady

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    Why would anyone adjust there expectations and complaints.

    through the years overcoming adversity has been a rallying cry for this team and your advice after watching us win 3 SB with key injuries is to just give up our expectations.

    Me I think this team has the heart and enough talent to be able to win a super bowl still so I am going to leave my expectations right where they were when the season began.
     
  12. Deus Irae

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    With Brady healthy, I expected this team to win 14-16 games this regular season. Once he went down, I changed that, and now I expect the team to compete for a playoff spot.

    You're welcome to believe that such changes aren't warranted.
     
  13. nepatz11

    nepatz11 On the Game Day Roster

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    I can't stand it when people say something like they are a dropped pass and a coin flip away from being 8-2. A jets fan could say the Jets were a picked up Dan Koppen fumble away from winning that game by 3 TDs.

    Against Indy we dominated but the only reason it was a close game is because we had 5 good drives in that game and came away with only one TD and 3 FGS (Thomas's Penalty ended the other one). Indy Conversely had 3 good drives and got 2 TD's and a clock killing field goal drive which we couldn't stop. Yes we win still if Gaffney catches that pass but the point is it was a close game because we put ourselves in a position to lose because of our poor red zone offense, defense and inability to stop on third down even though we dominated.

    Against the Jets same thing. The reason we were down so much is because we settled for FG's on the first two drives and the Jets took TD's. And we were in position to lose the coin flip because we let up a 14 play 8 minute TD drive in the 4th quarter where we couldnt get a stop, and couldnt even hold the Jets to a FG. And we lost in OT because we could not stop a 3rd and fifteen play.

    The Pats put themselves in positions to lose games despite playing well and the reason is their third down defense stinks, their red zone offense stinks and their red zone defense stinks. Yeah we all know a certain measure of bad luck at the end of games helped us to lose but we should never have been in position to lose the games if we had made the plays earlier in the game we needed to make.
     
  14. Deus Irae

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    I can't stand it when people not only can't admit the obvious, but act as if the obvious is clearly untrue. The Dan Koppen snap is just another example of a play that had nothing to do with red zone offense or 3rd down defense that ended up being costly to the Patriots. I used examples that had nothing to do with the play of the other team. Watson's drop, a coin flip, Gaffney's drop, Koppen's snap.... all either pure luck or unforced errors.

    And, one of those drives ended in a field goal because of Gaffney's drop. You even acknowledge that yourself and say that the Patriots win if he catches it. In essence, your argument is "yes, you're right, but I like to whine about the other things, so I'll act as if you're wrong."

    Dropped passes, fumbles without contact, botched snaps.... that's where the game was lost. Crying about a 4th quarter touchdown that was the Jets only score of the second half is just silly. And they lost in OT because they lost the coin toss and couldn't beat the odds. It wasn't just one third down play that allowed the Jets to score.

    The Patriots are playing with backups and youngsters all over the place. As a result, we're seeing a lot of mental mistakes, on all downs and at all points of the field. Nonetheless, the team is still 9th in the NFL in scoring defense.

    In other words, the 3rd down defense argument as the reason is bogus. But people here simply refuse to let reality interfere with their mindless rants.
     
  15. tombonneau

    tombonneau In the Starting Line-Up

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    Come on, Deus. Every team in the league could play woulda, coulda, shoulda with 1-3 plays a game. That's because as BB says, games -- regardless of final score, close or blowout -- usually come down to a handful of plays and whether or not you win those plays.

    Right now, the Pats -- due to their deficiency in the RZ on both sides of the ball as well as poor third down defense -- are in a position that they cannot win games if they lose those key plays.

    Even if we want to get in Doc Brown's time machine and Gaffney makes that catch and the Pats win the coin toss or make the stop on 3rd & 15 and the Pats are 8-2, the same problems would be there and the same problems would still catch up to them in the playoffs, just like they did in Denver in 05.

    Bottom line is regardless of their record, the Pats need to improve on these statistics if they want to win the SB.
     
  16. SVN

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    sure but doesnt mean it cant be pointed out. For that matter, some of these mental mistakes likes drops coin tosses etc can happen and we can still win it if 3rd down and RZ production improve . thats what i mean. Your logic is that we cant drop catches and fumble because we dont have the same team which can have a good 3rd down D and RZ. its just another way of saying the same thing. We stop on 3rd and 15 and the toss doesnt matter.
     
  17. Deus Irae

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    But your argument fails completely when applied to the reality of this season. In two of the losses, the team was completely blown out. Surely you won't try to claim that the problem in Miami was either red zone offense or 3rd down defense. One could argue that the blown "and goal" drive in San Diego was the dagger in the Patriots' hearts that game, but one could just as easily point to Moss failing to come up with either of two long passes. The other two losses have already been dealt with.

    The reality is that, despite all the howling, the defense is 9th in the NFL in points allowed. That's, statistically, more than sufficient to get to, and win, the Super Bowl. Where this team will fall short, if it does, is in having Cassel at QB rather than Brady, and having all the other injuries and inexperience elsewhere. This team is making mistakes it can't afford under anything but the absolute best of circumstances, and it doesn't matter what down it's been or what area of the field the team's been in.
     
  18. Deus Irae

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    No, my logic is that the losses this year don't center around the struggles in the red zone or the 3rd down defense. I'm not saying that those struggles shouldn't be worked on and improved, because they should, and I'm not saying that they haven't contributed at all to the 6-4 record. I'm saying that those numbers are pointing to a problem but are not, themselves, the problem.
     
  19. tombonneau

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    Weren't the Colts perfect on TDs in the Red Zone? Jets were 9/16 on 3rd down. I'd say those were key components to the respective losses. Obviously other plays had an impact, but if you were to boil down the losses to one Problem Area, I'd say those qualify. Hold Indy to just one FG, or make just one or two more third down stops **cough* 3rd & 15 **cough** and you win.

    ETA: The losses can be analyzed and argued six ways to Sunday, and everyone will obviously have different opinions as to what the biggest problems are, it's all just a big mosaic after all. I think it's all healthy discussion, but this is just one point where posters will have to agree to disagree.
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2008
  20. nepatz11

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    Deus I hate to tell you but your just completely wrong. You clearly did not understand my argument because you interperted as "Your right so ill whine about other things" Let me spell it out for you in simple terms: My point is that the only reason we were in position to be scorned by a few bad breaks at the end of games is because of some recurring, consistent major weaknesses that can not be attributed to luck but rather deficiency. Yes you are not wrong to say if Gaffney catches that pass or the coin flip goes our way we probably do win those games. But this team has shown repeatedly that it struggles in the red zone on offense majorly, that it struggles on defense in the red zone and that it has a hard time with third downs and that is why we were in position to be burned by bad lack.

    If we were a better team we would be up by more and those breaks wouldnt hurt us. The stats clearly back up those points so instead of you focusing on a few bad breaks I think you should focus on the clear holes in this team instead of saying "Oh if the Patriots got breaks late in every game they would be 8-2" because they have gotten many breaks late in some of their wins no team gets every break every time. For instance against KC and the Rams they got many breaks that helped them win those close games. As easily as you could say they are two plays from being 6-4 I could say they are two other plays from being 4-6. The bottom line is they are 6-4 and their luck has evened out and they are fighting for their playoff lives because of their holes, not because of any bad luck so stop saying if the win the coin toss then they would be 7-3 and start realizing why they were even in position to be burned by a coin toss!
     
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