3rd down analysis versus Jets

[cstjohn17]

Before I looked at this in detail I was thinking that we were getting killed by 3rd and longs but it was not really the case. If it weren't for the 3-3 on 4th downs it would have been a lot worse.

We failed to convert 3rd downs from 3 yards, 1 yard, 2 yards, 7 yards, 13 yards, 5 yards , 3 yards and 2 yards. Anything over 6 yards is difficult, 3 or less should be 70% or higher.

My analysis, the offense as unit has to get more aggressive in short yardage situations. Blocking, running, play calling. Short yardage is 1/2 mentality and 1/2 execution. Something to watch as the year progresses.

It highlights the kind of game the offense had. There were 11 tries on 3rd or 4th down from 3 yards or less. 6 failed, 5 were made (3 requiring 4th downs).

No time to look at 2nd downs but a quick count there were 8 times that we were 2nd and 10.

Run \ Pass on first downs - not counting last 2 drives 13 passes to 9 runs.

Stats - Jets\Patriots
Third Down Efficiency 6-13 \ 3-12
Fourth Down Efficiency 1-1 \ 3-3

----------------------------------------------------
1st Quarter
NY Jets - 14:56
NYJ kicked off, L. Maroney returned kickoff for 21 yards

New England - 14:56
1st-10, NE30 14:56 T. Brady passed to D. Gabriel to the left for 8 yard gain
2nd-2, NE38 14:34 C. Dillon rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain
3rd-1, NE39 14:00 H. Evans rushed to the right for 7 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NE46 13:22 T. Brady passed to C. Dillon to the right for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, NYJ49 12:45 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 5 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ44 12:03 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NYJ44 11:58 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
3rd-7, NYJ41 11:30 T. Brady incomplete pass to the right - FAILED
4th-7, NYJ41 11:20 J. Miller punt, no return

New England - 10:17
1st-10, NE42 10:17 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, NE45 9:38 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 12 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ43 9:10 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, NYJ38 8:34 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 2 yard gain
3rd-3, NYJ36 8:08 NE committed 10 yard penalty
3rd-13, NYJ46 7:41 T. Brady incomplete pass to the right - FAILED
4th-13, NYJ46 7:28 J. Miller punt, touchback


New England - 4:58
1st-10, NE10 4:58 C. Dillon rushed to the right for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, NE16 4:19 C. Dillon rushed to the right for 6 yard gain
1st-10, NE22 3:38 T. Brady passed to C. Jackson to the left for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, NE27 2:54 C. Dillon rushed to the right for 50 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ23 2:17 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 10 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ13 1:35 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, NYJ7 0:54 NYJ committed 3 yard penalty
2nd-1, NYJ4 0:48 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 1 yard loss
3rd-2, NYJ5 0:05 T. Brady sacked by K. von Oelhoffen - FAILED
NOTE: This was brutal, 2 and 1 from the NY 4 and we fail

2nd Quarter
New England continued
4th-10, NYJ13 14:56 S. Gostkowski kicked a 31-yard field goal

New England - 14:47
NE kicked off, J. Miller returned kickoff for 26 yards

New England - 14:40
1st-10, NE44 14:40 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the left for 10 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ46 13:55 T. Brady passed to D. Gabriel to the left for 22 yard gain. D. Gabriel fumbled. K. Rhodes recovered fumble and returned for 4 yards


New England - 4:39
1st-10, NE35 4:39 T. Brady passed to D. Graham to the right for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, NE41 4:10 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 1 yard loss
3rd-5, NE40 3:34 T. Brady passed to K. Faulk to the left for 4 yard gain - FAILED
4th-1, NE44 3:23 H. Evans rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NE45 2:49 T. Brady passed to J. Gaffney down the middle for 19 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ36 2:14 NE committed 10 yard penalty
1st-20, NYJ46 2:00 NYJ committed 15 yard penalty
1st-10, NYJ31 1:49 T. Brady passed to T. Brown to the left for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, NYJ29 1:15 T. Brady passed to K. Faulk to the left for 5 yard gain
3rd-3, NYJ24 0:51 T. Brady passed to C. Jackson to the right for no gain - FAILED
4th-3, NYJ24 0:40 T. Brady passed to J. Gaffney to the left for 13 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NYJ11 0:19 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NYJ11 0:17 T. Brady incomplete pass to the right
[COLOR="Red][B]3rd-10, NYJ11 0:13 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell down the middle for 8 yard gain - Failed[/B[/COLOR]
4th-2, NYJ3 0:04 S. Gostkowski kicked a 21-yard field goal

New England - 0:04
NE kicked off, J. Miller returned kickoff for 15 yards

3rd Quarter
New England - 15:00
NE kicked off, J. Miller returned kickoff for 62 yards

New England - 12:55
1st-10, NE4 12:55 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, NE10 12:22 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 7 yard gain
1st-10, NE17 11:47 C. Dillon rushed to the right for 1 yard gain
2nd-9, NE18 11:04 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 6 yard gain
[COLOR="Green"]3rd-3, NE24 10:39 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 4 yard gain - MADE[/COLOR]
1st-10, NE28 10:00 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, NE31 9:25 C. Dillon rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain
3rd-6, NE32 8:42 T. Brady incomplete pass to the right - FAILED
4th-6, NE32 8:26 J. Miller punt. T. Dwight returned punt for 15 yards

New England - 1:35
1st-10, NE44 1:35 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NE44 1:30 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
3rd-6, NE48 0:48 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 7 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NYJ45 0:07 NE committed 5 yard penalty

4th Quarter
New England continued
1st-15, 50 15:00 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell down the middle for 10 yard gain
2nd-5, NYJ40 14:26 L. Maroney rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
3rd-2, NYJ37 13:57 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 1 yard loss - FAILED
4th-3, NYJ38 13:25 T. Brady passed to B. Watson down the middle for 6 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NYJ32 12:55 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NYJ32 12:49 T. Brady sacked by B. Thomas
3rd-17, NYJ39 12:14 T. Brady sacked by D. Robertson - FAILEDNOTE: Another turning point, if we gain no yards on this set of downs we are looking at a 49-50 yard FG, instead we lose 11 with back to back sacks)

4th-21, NYJ43 11:38 J. Miller punt, touchback

New England - 8:02
1st-10, NE20 8:02 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 13 yard gain
1st-10, NE33 7:38 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, NE35 6:47 E. Coleman intercepted T. Brady for 3 yards


New England - 4:37
1st-10, NE39 4:37 T. Brady passed to J. Gaffney to the left for 33 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ28 4:31 T. Brady passed to T. Brown to the right for 13 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ15 4:25 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NYJ15 4:14 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 15 yard touchdown. 2pt attempt converted, T. Brady pass to R. Caldwell

New England - 4:14
NE kicked off, M. Chatham returned kickoff for 6 yards

New England - 1:08
1st-10, NE11 1:08 T. Brady incomplete pass down the middle
2nd-10, NE11 1:02 T. Brady passed to K. Faulk down the middle for 14 yard gain
1st-10, NE25 0:44 T. Brady passed to B. Watson to the left for 10 yard gain
1st-10, NE35 0:22 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 19 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ46 0:10 T. Brady incomplete pass down the middle
2nd-10, NYJ46 0:09 T. Brady sacked by S. Ellis. T. Brady fumbled. R. Hochstein recovered fumble

 

[PATRIOT64]

Before I looked at this in detail I was thinking that we were getting killed by 3rd and longs but it was not really the case. If it weren't for the 3-3 on 4th downs it would have been a lot worse.

We failed to convert 3rd downs from 3 yards, 1 yard, 2 yards, 7 yards, 13 yards, 5 yards , 3 yards and 2 yards. Anything over 6 yards is difficult, 3 or less should be 70% or higher.

My analysis, the offense as unit has to get more aggressive in short yardage situations. Blocking, running, play calling. Short yardage is 1/2 mentality and 1/2 execution. Something to watch as the year progresses.

It highlights the kind of game the offense had. There were 11 tries on 3rd or 4th down from 3 yards or less. 6 failed, 5 were made (3 requiring 4th downs).

No time to look at 2nd downs but a quick count there were 8 times that we were 2nd and 10.

Run \ Pass on first downs - not counting last 2 drives 13 passes to 9 runs.

Stats - Jets\Patriots
Third Down Efficiency 6-13 \ 3-12
Fourth Down Efficiency 1-1 \ 3-3

----------------------------------------------------
1st Quarter
NY Jets - 14:56
NYJ kicked off, L. Maroney returned kickoff for 21 yards

New England - 14:56
1st-10, NE30 14:56 T. Brady passed to D. Gabriel to the left for 8 yard gain
2nd-2, NE38 14:34 C. Dillon rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain
3rd-1, NE39 14:00 H. Evans rushed to the right for 7 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NE46 13:22 T. Brady passed to C. Dillon to the right for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, NYJ49 12:45 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 5 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ44 12:03 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NYJ44 11:58 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 3 yard gain
3rd-7, NYJ41 11:30 T. Brady incomplete pass to the right - FAILED
4th-7, NYJ41 11:20 J. Miller punt, no return

New England - 10:17
1st-10, NE42 10:17 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, NE45 9:38 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 12 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ43 9:10 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, NYJ38 8:34 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 2 yard gain
3rd-3, NYJ36 8:08 NE committed 10 yard penalty
3rd-13, NYJ46 7:41 T. Brady incomplete pass to the right - FAILED
4th-13, NYJ46 7:28 J. Miller punt, touchback


New England - 4:58
1st-10, NE10 4:58 C. Dillon rushed to the right for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, NE16 4:19 C. Dillon rushed to the right for 6 yard gain
1st-10, NE22 3:38 T. Brady passed to C. Jackson to the left for 5 yard gain
2nd-5, NE27 2:54 C. Dillon rushed to the right for 50 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ23 2:17 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 10 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ13 1:35 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, NYJ7 0:54 NYJ committed 3 yard penalty
2nd-1, NYJ4 0:48 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 1 yard loss
3rd-2, NYJ5 0:05 T. Brady sacked by K. von Oelhoffen - FAILED
NOTE: This was brutal, 2 and 1 from the NY 4 and we fail

2nd Quarter
New England continued
4th-10, NYJ13 14:56 S. Gostkowski kicked a 31-yard field goal

New England - 14:47
NE kicked off, J. Miller returned kickoff for 26 yards

New England - 14:40
1st-10, NE44 14:40 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the left for 10 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ46 13:55 T. Brady passed to D. Gabriel to the left for 22 yard gain. D. Gabriel fumbled. K. Rhodes recovered fumble and returned for 4 yards


New England - 4:39
1st-10, NE35 4:39 T. Brady passed to D. Graham to the right for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, NE41 4:10 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 1 yard loss
3rd-5, NE40 3:34 T. Brady passed to K. Faulk to the left for 4 yard gain - FAILED
4th-1, NE44 3:23 H. Evans rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NE45 2:49 T. Brady passed to J. Gaffney down the middle for 19 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ36 2:14 NE committed 10 yard penalty
1st-20, NYJ46 2:00 NYJ committed 15 yard penalty
1st-10, NYJ31 1:49 T. Brady passed to T. Brown to the left for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, NYJ29 1:15 T. Brady passed to K. Faulk to the left for 5 yard gain
3rd-3, NYJ24 0:51 T. Brady passed to C. Jackson to the right for no gain - FAILED
4th-3, NYJ24 0:40 T. Brady passed to J. Gaffney to the left for 13 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NYJ11 0:19 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NYJ11 0:17 T. Brady incomplete pass to the right
[COLOR="Red][B]3rd-10, NYJ11 0:13 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell down the middle for 8 yard gain - Failed[/B[/COLOR]
4th-2, NYJ3 0:04 S. Gostkowski kicked a 21-yard field goal

New England - 0:04
NE kicked off, J. Miller returned kickoff for 15 yards

3rd Quarter
New England - 15:00
NE kicked off, J. Miller returned kickoff for 62 yards

New England - 12:55
1st-10, NE4 12:55 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 6 yard gain
2nd-4, NE10 12:22 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 7 yard gain
1st-10, NE17 11:47 C. Dillon rushed to the right for 1 yard gain
2nd-9, NE18 11:04 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 6 yard gain
[COLOR="Green"]3rd-3, NE24 10:39 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 4 yard gain - MADE[/COLOR]
1st-10, NE28 10:00 L. Maroney rushed to the left for 3 yard gain
2nd-7, NE31 9:25 C. Dillon rushed up the middle for 1 yard gain
3rd-6, NE32 8:42 T. Brady incomplete pass to the right - FAILED
4th-6, NE32 8:26 J. Miller punt. T. Dwight returned punt for 15 yards

New England - 1:35
1st-10, NE44 1:35 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NE44 1:30 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 4 yard gain
3rd-6, NE48 0:48 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 7 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NYJ45 0:07 NE committed 5 yard penalty

4th Quarter
New England continued
1st-15, 50 15:00 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell down the middle for 10 yard gain
2nd-5, NYJ40 14:26 L. Maroney rushed up the middle for 3 yard gain
3rd-2, NYJ37 13:57 L. Maroney rushed to the right for 1 yard loss - FAILED
4th-3, NYJ38 13:25 T. Brady passed to B. Watson down the middle for 6 yard gain - MADE
1st-10, NYJ32 12:55 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NYJ32 12:49 T. Brady sacked by B. Thomas
3rd-17, NYJ39 12:14 T. Brady sacked by D. Robertson - FAILEDNOTE: Another turning point, if we gain no yards on this set of downs we are looking at a 49-50 yard FG, instead we lose 11 with back to back sacks)

4th-21, NYJ43 11:38 J. Miller punt, touchback

New England - 8:02
1st-10, NE20 8:02 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 13 yard gain
1st-10, NE33 7:38 C. Dillon rushed to the left for 2 yard gain
2nd-8, NE35 6:47 E. Coleman intercepted T. Brady for 3 yards


New England - 4:37
1st-10, NE39 4:37 T. Brady passed to J. Gaffney to the left for 33 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ28 4:31 T. Brady passed to T. Brown to the right for 13 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ15 4:25 T. Brady incomplete pass to the left
2nd-10, NYJ15 4:14 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 15 yard touchdown. 2pt attempt converted, T. Brady pass to R. Caldwell

New England - 4:14
NE kicked off, M. Chatham returned kickoff for 6 yards

New England - 1:08
1st-10, NE11 1:08 T. Brady incomplete pass down the middle
2nd-10, NE11 1:02 T. Brady passed to K. Faulk down the middle for 14 yard gain
1st-10, NE25 0:44 T. Brady passed to B. Watson to the left for 10 yard gain
1st-10, NE35 0:22 T. Brady passed to R. Caldwell to the right for 19 yard gain
1st-10, NYJ46 0:10 T. Brady incomplete pass down the middle
2nd-10, NYJ46 0:09 T. Brady sacked by S. Ellis. T. Brady fumbled. R. Hochstein recovered fumble

Hopefully we do a bit better this time around

 

[CaffeineMan]

Here's some stats in general, offensive DVOA for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down for the Pats from the Outsiders, link here. Their sortable stats are here.

Overall the Pats offensive DVOA ranks 7th this year. Here are the breakdowns by down. DVOA indicates percentage above league average (over the last few years). Success consists of 45% of needed yardage on 1st, 65% of needed yardage on second, and 100% of needed yardage on 3rd. Numbers are adjusted for opponent. Short means 1-3, mid means 4-6, long means 7+.

Overall offense: 12.2% (7th)

1st: 19.6% (5th)

2nd & short: 6.3% (12th)
2nd & mid: -15.6% (21st)
2nd & long: -14.7% (27th)
2nd (all): -9.5% (25th)

3rd & short: 25.7% (3rd)
3rd & mid: 23.1% (11th)
3rd & long: 52.9% (7th)
3rd (all): 31.4% (3rd)

Notice that we rule on 1st and 3rd down, except 3rd and mid, where we're middle-of-the-road. Notice that we suck on all second downs except for 2nd and short, where we're middle-of-the-road.

So in short-yardage situations, we can generally run it well ("Pound them Charlie! Pound them!"). Or we QB sneak on 3rd and short. In obvious passing downs (3rd and long), we also do well compared to league average.

But in those pass-or-run situations like 2nd & mid or long, or 3rd & mid, we're worse than our overall average. This is the area where I do wonder about the playcalling. Whatever is happening in this situation is clearly surprising nobody on the defense. Dunno if the Pats are telegraphing something, or if they're just choosing ineffective plays, or the good plays are just ones that are hard for this offense to execute successfully.

These 2nd down situations seem to me to be the only fly in the ointment on offense. When the Pats are rolling, it seems like it's either by gaining 7-9 on 1st down, then short yardage on 2nd or 3rd. Maybe occaisonally they get 2-3 on 1st down, diddly on second down, but bail themselves out on 3rd and long. And the drives keep going. When they're stalling on 1st down, they can't get anything on 2nd down, so they're more often in 3rd and long. Now they're executing that 50% better than league average, but if you keep putting yourself in that position, eventually you'll fall to earth, especially against a good defense. 2nd down seems "wasted" by the Pats offense.

BTW, to me, this is what Outsiders stats are really good at, breakdowns like this, since they are per-play stats.