Records only affect the spread by affecting bettor attitudes. If you want to guess the spread you'll have to guess the bettor attitudes and what Vegas will do to counter it (as they had to go overboard for the Eagles, and went underboard for other teams.)
Bettor attitudes are indeed affected by records, although records don't always tell the whole story. Case in point: Eagles.
If you want to jump on a spread bandwagon it can be dangerous because the same forces (bettor attitudes that drive the spread make it a very unreliable means to determine the actual differences between teams.
In other words, the bettors are stupid at times and following bettors like a lemming is not an adventure I plan on taking soon.
The Dolphins will have something to play for, they have had success against our defense already this year, and they have the Eagles film. I don't think they can stop our offense, but picking a reliable spread for that game gets dicey for me when you go above 2 TDs. I expect them to tool our defense by air. I think we have some serious problems.
