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2nd Round- Best Value

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by PATSNUTme, Mar 18, 2006.

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  1. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    As of today, when you look at the players availible after the top 15 the value in this draft seems to be in the second round.

    Therefore, I'm suggesting that the Patriots trade down and up to get as many as 3 or 4 second rounders.

    At the top of the second round will be Bobby Carpenter,LB. I like Cedrick Griffin for CB mid to upper 2nd round. Maurice Stovall for WR & Joseph Addai RB seem to be mid 2nd rounders.

    If they should find the right trading partners ( a big IF, I know) and walk away with those four, I'll be a happy man. Then with the two comp picks go with a TE and a OG/T. Maybe save a 5th and take a NT to back up Big Vince. Seems to be a deep draft to find that back up NT in the 5th.

    Seven total picks instead of 11 would be OK by me.

    Now, go ahead and tear into me.
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2006
  2. Feep_FLA

    Feep_FLA Rookie

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    I they could pull this off it might be the best draft ever for them. All but Griffin are on my personal dream list. Not knocking Griffin, I'm just not aware of him. As of this moment we have 9 picks and it may go up to 10 or 11. I would like to see 7 picks or less. I believe this year movement with trading next years picks w/teams will be easier than is normally typical. So we may indeed see something like your scenario. I sure hope so! :rocker:
  3. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We all bb's value strategy. If there are many almost equal that we want available at 21, bb will trade down. Yes, I would prefer to have four seconds to a 1st, a 2nd and two thirds.
    -------------

    That being said, the new rules make a lower first rounder more valuable. They can be (and would be expected to be) signed to five year deal. A 2nd rounder is a four year deal.
  4. bosfan

    bosfan Rookie

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    Trading down gets my vote but I like our position right now as well - #21 and #52 will be solid picks and then those two 3's and two 4's represent a great opportunity to find some additional value that could reinforce our ranks big time.
  5. nickw308810

    nickw308810 Rookie

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    Remember that Draft game PatsWorldChamps had us do? With the GBN list and the Draft Value Chart? Well I did a 2nd one of those kind of like the idea you had with all the 2nd round picks because I thought that is where all the value was as well. No need to write about all the points but here is what I ended up with:

    Traded down for Richard Marshall
    Than for Kamerion Wimbley
    than up for Joseph Addai
    than up for Darnell Bing
    than up for Jonathan Scott
    than up a few for Kai Parham
    than down for Greg Jennings
    than selected any NT and TE available late
    Tommy Jackson? Jimmy Martin?

    I would feel pretty good with that draft.
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2006
  6. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That would be a very good draft. I'd love to get those players.

    The only trouble I have with "trade mocks" is that you have to have a willing trading partner. When you start doing that in mocks, you really have to assume a lot, then it becomes more of an ultra fantasty mock.

    That's why when I set up the original "GBN' mock, I didn't allow trades.
  7. ayjackson

    ayjackson Rookie

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    were any future picks involved? if not, that's pretty freakin' good!!!!

    imagine coming away with all those guys!! even parham & jennings !!! what number was each pick taken? i can't imagine a better draft class than that & question as to whether it's even feasable. they could all start by the end of the season.

    where are my pills!
  8. big mike

    big mike Rookie

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    Carpenter MAY make it into the second round - but I think it's fairly likely he'll be taken late first round (and many mocks have him there).

    Stovall is over-rated IMO. Addai could be taken anywhere in the 2nd round.

    I'd love to see them get Carpenter and Addai. The others I'm not so high on, and I'm not that confidenty Carpenter will slip into round 2. With the FA signings going on, it looks like more teams will be looking at LB in round 2.
  9. nickw308810

    nickw308810 Rookie

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    Well yeah that is what that is an "ultra fantasy mock". In the game you didn't even have to make an actual trade, just as long as the points system worked. The point of it though was that if we target a few key players at good value than we can make almost anything happen. Instead of going with the top tier prospects like Lawson and Cromartie, we could acquire more value with a Marshall and Wimbley and extra picks (or points as it was in this case). Is the draft I made realistic? Not by a long shot, but it just shows that with all our picks Belichick will be able to get the players he targets if we move around some. 3 or 4 second rounders like you said.
  10. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You very well could be right about Carpenter. In fact, a month ago I had him as the guy the Patriots should take at #21 and he still may be.

    But the 4 or 5 grading pubications tha I've looked at has him a top 5 in the 2nd round.

    Every draft has it own dynamics and it will depend on what positions are being "run on'. Hell, two years ago no mock or draft grading system had Big Vince sitting #21 for us. The lowest that I saw him ranked was #12.
  11. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Don't get me wrong. All I'm saying is that in order to trade, you have to have a willing trading partner. Nothing else matters if you can't find a team willing to trade to the spot that you want.

    In some cases, there is more than one team wanting that spot and then the bidding starts and the value chart gets thrown out.
  12. big mike

    big mike Rookie

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    The reason I doubt he'll make it that far is that due to FA acquisitions, many teams are now looking at OLB as their top need. The grading publications ignore that. Carpenter has been fairly undervalued overall, in large part probably due to AJ Hawk stealing the limelight away from him. But, Carpenter is very good - and IMO if Dallas doesn't take him at 18, we should (and probably will) at 21.

    It would be an interesting question as far as whether we should take Carpenter or Lawson if both were available at 21. Lawson is definitely the better athlete, but Carpenter has better intangibles, and is more of a sure thing (although Lawson has more upside potential).
  13. b72s

    b72s Rookie

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    Great Looking Draft

    But I think it is not plausible as there are alot of nice name and unlse we had
    Really high second rounders it would be tough.

    Given The Mocks I have seen do we stick with D or take a running back. With the four RBs around our 21st are they better than D???

    If they are and BB stays true to less value on RBs than I could see a trade down and stock up on D and maybe sneak in Addai after at least one d pick.

    I would like to get dominck Davis for a lower pick and go Defense up the middle
  14. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    Amazing! Every single year, somebody posts this same exact theory.
  15. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This is not a theory - it's an observation. I haven't made that observation before.

    So, tell us. Who should the Patriots take at #21 or should they look to trade up or down? Providing they can find a willing trading partner.
  16. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    I didn't mean to be rude about it. It was just my observation that every year somebody posts a similar observation that the value of the draft is somewhere in the 35-60 range and that we should try to acquire as many 2nd rounders as possible. I think it happens because every year there are 6-12 top prospects that we can't afford to trade up for and there's a group of players within a couple of positions who are closely grouped, at least by the so-called experts.

    As for my opinion, I'm not saying you're wrong. The only guys I'm high on who I think could slide to 21 are Santonio Holmes and LenDale White. If they're not there, I'm all for trading down. But part of this is also because I haven't followed college FB or the draft as much as I usually do.
  17. patpatriot

    patpatriot Banned

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    Not likely tho

    For us to trade down from 21 into round 2, somebody really unusual would have to drop like Vince Young or Ngata (sp?) or maybe even Greenway (possible). Much more likey would be a trade down from 21 to 22-32 in the first. Could pick up a nice 3rd rounder or maybe a future 2nd, or at least some favorable mid round position swaps.
  18. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    IF Huff drops to #15, who would trade up for this guy??????? What would you be willing to sacrifice to get him???????

    Huff = spectacular athlete. Can play a nasty headhunting SS and cover like a CB! If Harison comes all the way back, we can slide Huff over to nickel and our run support suffers nothing and our coverage speed improves. Best DB in the draft, hands down.
  19. Boston Tim

    Boston Tim Rookie

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    With the new CBA, there are restrictions on the number of years that you can force upon a 2nd rounder. That new policy reduces the value of players in the second round, IMHO. I would have agreed with you last year. But now I'd rather pay a larger signing bonus for a late first rounder but get to keep him for 5 years instead of 4.
  20. patpatriot

    patpatriot Banned

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    Huff? Oh yeah

    Many favorable comparisons to Ronnie Lot. What is that worth? 21 to 15 would cost our first 3rd rounder and our nice 5th. We'd have to be sure that he would start at CB or FS moving Wilson to CB. Rodney insurance, starting CB capable. yeah I guess I would do it.
  21. big mike

    big mike Rookie

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    It depends entirely on how the first 20 picks pan out. Two years ago, many people were saying we should trade down with 21. Then Wilfork slipped to us, and we struck gold.

    If guys like Manny Lawson, Bobby Carpenter, all of the RBs that could be good value there, etc. are all gone by 21 - then yes, we should trade down. But, there are a few people who would be worth picking at 21 (or trading down a few picks, depending on who's on the board). If Manny Lawson is there, many would say there's no question - we should take him. He's head and shoulders above all of the LBs who will be in the 2nd round.

    If he's gone, but guys like Greenway and Carpenter are still on the board - it might be worth trading down a few picks, aiming to still get Carpenter (since Greenway will likely be more appealing to most teams), but get a pick to use to move up further in the 2nd round to try to get Addai or one of the other RBs who may be there in the early 2nd.

    At this point it's all speculation, since we don't know how the first 20 picks will go. Without knowing who will still be there at 21, we can't say it does or doesn't make more sense to trade down.
  22. big mike

    big mike Rookie

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    I think another factor is many people for some reason thinking that we can get guys we like in the 2nd or 3rd round who will likely never make it out of the first.

    What about Lawson?
  23. big mike

    big mike Rookie

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    And what about the SS's we drafted on day 1 in the last two drafts? If we trade up to 15 to take Huff, can we get those draft picks back?

    Gus Scott and James Sanders are decent - give them a chance before saying we should use yet another day 1 pick on an SS. Hawkins is decent as well. Do we need 5 SSs now? It was a fluke last year that our top three SSs all got injured, and so close together.
  24. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    While the whole question was a what if, however let me say this BB likes competition. Drafting Huff would cause some competition.

    Gus Scott is miscast as a SS, he should be a FS, but regardless of what position he plays, I'm not convinced he's anything special. I would not be surprised if he doesn't break camp with the team this fall.
    Sanders right now is an ideal beckup SS and ST demon. Maybe he could devlop into something more, hard to tell at this point.
    However what is known is that with Huff, there is no guessing or waiting, he's special now. The only question I have on him, is he smart enough to be a field general in the Pats complex secondary???

    I still believe that our #1 need entering FA was a playmaker in the secondary. This guy is the best the draft has to offer.
  25. big mike

    big mike Rookie

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    1. The Patriots don't really play a FS/SS defense. As has been discussed before, they really just play more of a "left safety" and "right safety".
    2. He's hardly had a chance to display what he can do. He didn't play much at all his rookie season since Rodney was healthy, and last year he was injured right after Rodney. But, when he HAS been in there, he's looked good.

    I'd say the question is - given Sanders and Scott have the potential to be decent safeties, and Rodney is still on the team, and Hawkins played decent last year at safety - why use a first round pick on another one, when there are other positions of much greater need?

    I just don't see how you can believe that, considering we don't have a full set of starting LBs, no real #2 WR, etc..
  26. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

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    What about drafting Jason Allen in the 1st. Or maybe Pat Watkins or Bullocks in the 2nd/3rd.

    I could see them drafting OL Marcus McNeill in the 1st and Chris GoCong in the 3rd (OLB/MLB).

    On the other hand they have a top SEC OT in Wesley Britt on practice squad. Wonder what happened to him.
  27. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In Ochmed's defense, BB trains his secondary to play both safeties, but then tries to give them assignments based on their individual skill set and body type. Geno gets the FS assignment more often because he is faster than Rodney and is a converted CB. Rodney gets the SS assignment most often because that has been his position during his career and he has the size to survive better close to the line - when Pittsburgh WRs aren't throwing illegal looking blocks from behind.

    Hawkins style of play made him a better SS candidate than Geno even though he gave up 15 pounds to Eugene. I agree with Ochmed, Gus Scott would be better in the FS assignment; I think Sanders will be better in a SS assignment. Ventrone is a SS in Europe and looks good up in the box.

    Huff has measurables that suggest he can play CB, but the size to play SS in the box. The question to answer when he gets into a training camp, does he have the eye-foot coordination and football instincts to play the ball in the air from the CB position? I think we're all in agreement that he would be good at either safety.

    If he was BB's choice, the question would then be one of opportunity to reach him.
  28. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    On paper Jason Allen looks like he has the measurables to play anywhere in the secondary - the question would be how well the knee is doing and how much rust exists once he gets back to a football field?

    I agree with Mike, S isn't our thinnest position, and I agree with Ochmed that having another payer who can be a ball-hawking, cover corner would be a worthwhile investment even with LB being thin. Watkins or Bullocks don't reportedly translate into the CB assignment as well as Huff or Allen might.

    Britt was on the Practice Squad through the end of the season and was re-signed to the team before the start of the new NFL year. Rosie Colvin had good things to say about him as a practice partner in Rosie's pass rush drills, hopefully the extra year to heal and develop his blocking under Dante and against guys like Rosie and Vrabel have prepared him to push Light and Kaczur in camp.

    McNeil was criticized by Mike Mayock (NFL Network draft analyst) for being a "heavy legged, waste bender." I noted in the Senior Bowl that speed rushers ate him alive, he just didn't have the foot speed to beat them to the corner. He is a good run blocker, and might make the translation inside to RG, but despite his impressive straight line speed, he reportedly didn't have the lateral speed and quickness Dante and BB look for in an O-lineman. I picture him as a heavier Gorin and I want an pass protection upgrade at RT with the increase in teams who have speed rushers on either edge.

    I am really impressed with Gocong's play and measurables; my ideal LB draft would be Lawson in the first round with Gocong at 3a - I would settle for Tapp in the first (preferably after a trade down to gain more horsepower in the second) and Gocong, but he reminds me so much of Bruschi - only he has an extra 15 lbs to absorb abuse. Lawson and Gocong had the best ball awareness I observed in the All-Star games.
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