2017 Free Agency

[conway]

This team is tremendous. The defense looks incredible. The offense looks good without Brady and Gronk and Lewis. This looks like a Superbowl Championship team. Which, of course, has caused me to stress about all that we're losing next year. I can't believe we haven't extended anyone of note yet.

As everyone knows, we have a hell of a lot of significant free agents next year. Collins, Hightower, Butler (RFA), Sheard, Harmon, Ryan, Bennett, Long, Vollmer….

It appears we currently have about $10M in cap room in 2016. I believe that rolls over into next year's cap. We currently have $102M committed to 38 players. The projected cap is roughly $166M, plus $10M in carryover, brings us to a total of $176M. That gives us $74M in cap room. Cutting Amendola ($6.5M), Harbor ($1.5M), and trading Garoppolo ($880k), takes us to about $83 Million in cap room, with 35 players under contract. My simplistic proposal:

Collins: $13M per year
Butler $12M per
Sheard $10M per
Hightower $10M per
Ryan $8M per
Bennett $8M per
Harmon $7M per
Long $5M per

That takes up another $73M, and brings us to 43 players under contract. That leaves approximately $10 to fill 10 slots, several of whom would be rookies. Additionally, we could probably save significant room by increasing the salaries in later years and lessening the hit in 2017. We could also choose to apply the first round tender to Butler and either pay him $4.5 or get a first in return. But I'd like to see them keep the heart of this team together.

Now, I think with the emergence of Flowers and return of Ninkovich, Long might be a bit of a luxury. And I don't see re-signing Vollmer. (Maybe we use some draft capital on a rookie tackle.)

Are any of my numbers way off?

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

The numbers per year may be in the ballpark, but it's just not how the cap works. For that matter, it's not how the patriots work.

Add in another 6-8 million for the draft. Add in another 7-10 for other free agents. Add in another 7-10 for buffer that the team always tries to have in case.

There are just too many dominoes that need to fall at this point to get a very good read on the situation.

But, to prevent against future disappointment, start working under the assumption that half of those players you listed, end up elsewhere. It has been a hard truth of the Belichick era. While the dollars can always be sliced to make the piecee fit, BB will always be pragmatic about getting the pieces that will fit the longest.

 

[supafly]

It would be silly, not to mention pointless, to extend Butler now at 12m dollars.

What's the point? He has all of 2016 and even 2017 (RFA) at a cheap and reasonable pact.

If they could come to a common ground that would allow Butler immediate financial security but also lock him in to a fair deal that works for both sides, that would be a different scenario.

 

[Marqui]

Now way I'd give Ryan 8 million. That would be the worst contract in Belichick's history. And no way is Sheard worth 10 million.

 

[conway]

I'm not talking about giving Butler additional money this year. I'm talking 2017. And while two years ago I consistently thought Ryan sucked, he's had some pretty good games lately. $8M might be high, but I bet it's not too terribly far off. With the cap going up every year, salaries will follow.

I understand that contracts typically increase in every year, that's why I noted my "simplified" approximations of salaries.

My point, I guess, is that with all the room have, we can sign most of these guys to pretty significant contracts. There's no reason we should lose Collins, Hightower and Butler.

 

[IllegalContact]

This team is tremendous. The defense looks incredible. The offense looks good without Brady and Gronk and Lewis. This looks like a Superbowl Championship team. Which, of course, has caused me to stress about all that we're losing next year. I can't believe we haven't extended anyone of note yet.

As everyone knows, we have a hell of a lot of significant free agents next year. Collins, Hightower, Butler (RFA), Sheard, Harmon, Ryan, Bennett, Long, Vollmer….

It appears we currently have about $10M in cap room in 2016. I believe that rolls over into next year's cap. We currently have $102M committed to 38 players. The projected cap is roughly $166M, plus $10M in carryover, brings us to a total of $176M. That gives us $74M in cap room. Cutting Amendola ($6.5M), Harbor ($1.5M), and trading Garoppolo ($880k), takes us to about $83 Million in cap room, with 35 players under contract. My simplistic proposal:

Collins: $13M per year
Butler $12M per
Sheard $10M per
Hightower $10M per
Ryan $8M per
Bennett $8M per
Harmon $7M per
Long $5M per

That takes up another $73M, and brings us to 43 players under contract. That leaves approximately $10 to fill 10 slots, several of whom would be rookies. Additionally, we could probably save significant room by increasing the salaries in later years and lessening the hit in 2017. We could also choose to apply the first round tender to Butler and either pay him $4.5 or get a first in return. But I'd like to see them keep the heart of this team together.

Now, I think with the emergence of Flowers and return of Ninkovich, Long might be a bit of a luxury. And I don't see re-signing Vollmer. (Maybe we use some draft capital on a rookie tackle.)

Are any of my numbers way off?

first and 2nd years of new deals are typically less than the average cap hit......some of it can be managed, and we are simply not going to sign all those guys to those numbers.....Harmon for 7M? nope...... Ryan for 8M? nope

 

[Sciz]

This is a good example of how they can bring back almost all the same players, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea. You don't win in the NFL by having a team full of players making exactly what they're worth. They can probably afford to bring back whoever they want, but there are going to be some guys that they choose not to bring back. That will free up some money to take chances on undervalued players, with Long and Sheard being perfect examples from the past two offseasons.

 

[BobDigital]

This team is tremendous. The defense looks incredible. The offense looks good without Brady and Gronk and Lewis. This looks like a Superbowl Championship team. Which, of course, has caused me to stress about all that we're losing next year. I can't believe we haven't extended anyone of note yet.

As everyone knows, we have a hell of a lot of significant free agents next year. Collins, Hightower, Butler (RFA), Sheard, Harmon, Ryan, Bennett, Long, Vollmer….

It appears we currently have about $10M in cap room in 2016. I believe that rolls over into next year's cap. We currently have $102M committed to 38 players. The projected cap is roughly $166M, plus $10M in carryover, brings us to a total of $176M. That gives us $74M in cap room. Cutting Amendola ($6.5M), Harbor ($1.5M), and trading Garoppolo ($880k), takes us to about $83 Million in cap room, with 35 players under contract. My simplistic proposal:

Collins: $13M per year
Butler $12M per
Sheard $10M per
Hightower $10M per
Ryan $8M per
Bennett $8M per
Harmon $7M per
Long $5M per

That takes up another $73M, and brings us to 43 players under contract. That leaves approximately $10 to fill 10 slots, several of whom would be rookies. Additionally, we could probably save significant room by increasing the salaries in later years and lessening the hit in 2017. We could also choose to apply the first round tender to Butler and either pay him $4.5 or get a first in return. But I'd like to see them keep the heart of this team together.

Now, I think with the emergence of Flowers and return of Ninkovich, Long might be a bit of a luxury. And I don't see re-signing Vollmer. (Maybe we use some draft capital on a rookie tackle.)

Are any of my numbers way off?

I want to keep this team together. Bennett seems to be fitting in here well and likes the scene so hopefully he is willing to not battle for the very last dollar cause i think he takes the offense to a new level.

On average Luke Keuchly is paid an average of 12.4M.

Collins - 11.5M
Hightower 11M
Sheard 7M
Butler 5M (will turn into a 11M average after 2017 but the first year will not be big I think)
Bennett 6M
Long 3M
Amendola 3M (make a new deal... he wants to stay so he will do it)
Branch 2.5M (1-2 year deal)
Cannon ??? What you pay him depends a lot on this year.

The reason i keep these guys is not just cause they are good players but can be had for good and fair values.

Need to let walk

Ryan (he will be over paid and I don't want the pats to match. Sad to see him go and could be a problem)
Harmon (Pats can't afford to pay him too much)
Vollmer (Pats need to move on from him sadly)

So I did not do the math but the Pats will have something like 20M left to play with not counting rookies. We will see what is there in FA.

 

[Marqui]

I want to keep this team together. Bennett seems to be fitting in here well and likes the scene so hopefully he is willing to not battle for the very last dollar cause i think he takes the offense to a new level.

On average Luke Keuchly is paid an average of 12.4M.

Collins - 11.5M
Hightower 11M
Sheard 7M
Butler 5M (will turn into a 11M average after 2017 but the first year will not be big I think)
Bennett 6M
Long 3M
Amendola 3M (make a new deal... he wants to stay so he will do it)
Branch 2.5M (1-2 year deal)
Cannon ??? What you pay him depends a lot on this year.

The reason i keep these guys is not just cause they are good players but can be had for good and fair values.

Need to let walk

Ryan (he will be over paid and I don't want the pats to match. Sad to see him go and could be a problem)
Harmon (Pats can't afford to pay him too much)
Vollmer (Pats need to move on from him sadly)

So I did not do the math but the Pats will have something like 20M left to play with not counting rookies. We will see what is there in FA.

I actually would bring back Vollmer. I wouldn't completely rely on him and draft another tackle but his value should be down with his injury history and will be one of those "undervalued players". He's an elite RT when healthy. I certainly would rather have him than Cannon.

 

[mihap]

Hightower and Bennet are must.

 

[Joey007]

Goodbye to Ryan, Bennett, and Harmon.

I love all three of those guys, but they will all likely be overpaid. Gotta focus on Malcolm, Sheard, and the LB's. I feel like we could keep 3 of those 4.

 

[meatface]

I fully expect that anyone who gets reigned will be last minute, a la Devin McCourty.

Sent from my KFSOWI using Tapatalk

 

[ausbacker]

The great thing about the salary cap is knowing I legitimately don't have to have an opinion given I can defer to @Miguel.

 

[stinkypete]

I view Bennett and Harmon as luxury players right now. I assume they walk.

Sheard, Butler and Collins are all must keep guys. All three are going to command salaries in the $10 million plus range. The franchise tag comes into play here. I presume that Collins will get the tag as the LB number will be lower than the CB and DE numbers.

Harmon and Bennett are luxuries. They'll leave for high end starter money. Ryan will probably also walk.

Hightower is the toughest decision. I want to see both LBs kept, don't know if it will be possible.

 

[BobDigital]

Up to this point Sheard does not look like the kind of player who commands 10m a year. He is good but he has not taken over any games this year though he did take over 1-2 last year.

So far in this years 3 games he looks like a 5-6M player.

 

[gobesmug]

Up to this point Sheard does not look like the kind of player who commands 10m a year. He is good but he has not taken over any games this year though he did take over 1-2 last year.

So far in this years 3 games he looks like a 5-6M player.

This. Sheard is awesome, but he is not the same player without CJ. People on this board greatly downplay the impact Jones had on the Dline the last couple of years. Without Jones being the main man OC scheme against they can now focus on Sheard. And you can see the difference between past year and this year.

That's not a knock against Sheard. Just giving props to Jones and miss him on the Dline.

 

[JMC00]

Any Hightower extension is probably gonna be somewhat incentive based IMO. Maybe something like $7-8m but reaching $10-11m based on playing time incentives.

Guy has missed 4 games each of the last 2 years and is already at 2 games missed this year.


But I also believe Hightower is one of those guys that would take a hometown discount.

 

[JMC00]

This. Sheard is awesome, but he is not the same player without CJ. People on this board greatly downplay the impact Jones had on the Dline the last couple of years. Without Jones being the main man OC scheme against they can now focus on Sheard. And you can see the difference between past year and this year.

That's not a knock against Sheard. Just giving props to Jones and miss him on the Dline.

But that's not even true. Chris Long over these 3 games has looked better than Chandler Jones did over any 3 game stretch if we are talking about all around pass rush and disruptiveness and not just sack numbers..

 

[gobesmug]

From this year's draft and the trade for Erixlc Rowe, my guess is BB extends Hightower, Collins, and one of Sheard or Long. Which ever makes most financial sense. If he can land both than the Dline is set along with LBs.

Ryan and Harmon will walk for $$ giving the pats some Comp picks the following year and Butler will be tendered and will sign the 1 year deal.

From there my guess would be BB will evaluate how Cyprus Jones, Eric Rowe and probably another rookie DB progress to see if extending Butler to multiple years is worth it or if the young cheap DBs can replace him.

Vollmer is most likely done, Cooper hasn't done anything yet so it's still open on him.

And finally I feel if Bennett is willing to take a discount to stay, then he will be extended as well. He is critical IMO. He fills in for Gronk without a noticeable drop off and the both of them together create giant mismatches on Offense. Can't wait for Gronk to get healthy to see them together.

 

[BradyEra]

I would like to keep Garoppolo. I feel like this guy could be a potential starter after Brady.