2015 NFL Office Pool Picker / Spread Calculator

[mgcolby]

Not a bad start for the picker 8 wins ATS and 11 wins straight up. Hopefully it continues.

Record
ATS: 8-4-1 (66%)
SU: 11-2

 

[mgcolby]

Week 6...will update once the Pats line comes out.
Updated: Pats opened -7.

 

[Tony2046]

What if a team forfeits?

 

[mgcolby]

It also doesn't account for time clock cheat....ahm errors.

 

[mgcolby]

Well....the Picker is thankful for Pagano making decisions that make the Picker look like an Ivy League scholarship kid this week!

Terrible...terrible week for the picker, the worst I believe in its history at least from a ATS win total perspective.
No sense in sugarcoating it is what it is:

Week 6
ATS: 3-9-2
SU: 8-6

Season:
ATS: 11-13-3 (46%)
SU: 19-8

 

[jmt57]

Well....the Picker is thankful for Pagano making decisions that make the Picker look like an Ivy League scholarship kid this week!

Terrible...terrible week for the picker, the worst I believe in its history at least from a ATS win total perspective.

Yeah, last week was rough. For every game that went as I thought it would ATS (e.g., Dolphins>Titans, Vikings>Chiefs), it seemed there were two that went opposite (e.g., Falcons-Saints, Cardinals-Steelers); of course the Pats-Colts final score was closer than I anticipated as well.

Oh well, there's always next week.

Thanks much for your time and effort posting these.

 

[mgcolby]

We're onto week 7!

 

[jmt57]

@mgcolby

The formula comes up with some interesting predictions:

• Browns over Rams in St. Louis
• Bucs over Skins in Washington
• Raiders over Chargers in San Diego
• Eagles at Panthers a virtual pick'em
• Texans at Dolphins a virtual pick'em

 

[mgcolby]

@mgcolby

The formula comes up with some interesting predictions:

• Browns over Rams in St. Louis
• Bucs over Skins in Washington
• Raiders over Chargers in San Diego
• Eagles at Panthers a virtual pick'em
• Texans at Dolphins a virtual pick'em

Yeah the one that stood out to me the most was the Eagles at first glance, but despite their sloppy play Monday night they are surprisingly efficient. The Browns is surprising, but at the end of the day it is about efficiency for the picker. At its core the formula is Yards per point with a few other factors and a blend of expectation as to how they will do against each other.

The Chargers maybe the least efficient team in the NFL. I don't list it out that way so I can't say for sure. But over the past four games they are averaging 440 yards of total offense per game and 21 PPG. That is not good. To give an example over that same span NE is averaging 437 yards of total offense per game and 38.75 PPG. So the Raiders being picked here wasn't a big surprise when I saw it.

But it always fun to see how it does in the games that go against your initial instinct. It does make you think. I really enjoy tracking how the picker does.

Thanks for the feedback and discussion.

 

[mgcolby]

Out of curiosity I went and filtered the data to show the efficiency of each team based on yards per point:

 

[mgcolby]

Well the picker recovered back to the world of mediocrity this week, which is a monster improvement considering where it was last week. Hopefully this will start a climbing trend.

Week 7
ATS: 7-7
SU: 7-7

Season:
ATS: 18-20-3
SU: 26-15

 

[mgcolby]

Since mining the efficiency data last week, I have been playing with the data and trying to come up with an efficiency rating if you will, ala Aikman (although I don't know his formula) and finally did. Now, I need to figure out a way to add this to the picker formula and have a v1 vs v2 if you will to see if it improves it at all. But that will take a few more rotations from the hamster.

So for now I will just post the efficiency rating. Remember this is for the last 4 games only, this is not for the entire season.

(YPP = Yards Per Point, TER = Team Efficiency Rating)

 

[mgcolby]

Week 8 picks. Note Titans and Texans is off the board at the moment. Sorry for the late upload, but a lot of games were off until late last night.

 

[mgcolby]

A winning week but not great, but better than the past two weeks. A slow climb. I also added a TER win / loss column mostly for my own curiosity.

Week 8

ATS: 8-6
SU: 10-4
TER: 10-4

Season:
ATS: 26-24-3 (52%)
SU: 36-19
TER: 10-4

 

[mgcolby]

Here are the TER rankings for week 9 (remember these are for the last 4 games only).
(YPP = Yards Per Point, TER = Team Efficiency Rating)

 

[mgcolby]

And Week 9 picks.

 

[mgcolby]

\Another winning week but nothing to write home about. Its not doing as good as did the last two years, but this year has been abnormal given all the injuries to not just key players but franchise QB's. My memory maybe failing me but I don't recall a recent season season where the QB's with the status such as Brees, Big Ben, Luck, Cutler etc... have all missed multiple games not to mention the RB's that have gone down which obviously isn't as abnormal.

Not making excuses for the picker just trying to understand the situation a little better. The same for the Efficiency rating if not for the injuries I would probably chalk it up as an experiment that has failed. The only thing keeping it going for me is the injury factor.

Anyway Week 9 results:
ATS: 7-5-1
SU: 7-6
TER: 7-6

Season:
ATS: 33-29-4 (53%)
SU: 43-25
TER: 17-10

 

[mgcolby]

And now week 10 picks. Of course because another starting QB is out no line on the Minnesota game. I also reserve the right to use the new Colts line when it comes out, given the news just released about Luck.

 

[mgcolby]

Efficiency ratings.

 

[jmt57]

@mgcolby

Curious: does your system take the typical three points for home field into account?

I didn't look very closely, but the W-L for Team Efficiency Rating (last column) comparison doesn't seem to do so - though I could have completely missed that.

Thanks...