2015 Cap Arithmetic - Defense

[mgteich]

I have only ONE goal: re-sign the best defense that we've had since at least 2007. BTW, we should expect a bit better cap situation in 2016. The only potential major free agents are Solder and Wendell. Also the cap should be higher. I see ZERO need to add free agent defensive players, except to replace those players who move on to other teams. Certainly, we could draft a defensive player or two.
=================
FREE AGENT "BUDGET"
McCourty $7M (4 years, $24M bonus will do it, negotiate salaries for last 3 years plus guarantees)
Ayers $3.5M
Casillas $2.0M
Chung $2.0M
Branch $2.0M
--------------------
Total $16.5M

SOURCES OF CAP SAVINGS
Revis $13M (this can be done even with a $16M AAV)
Wilfork $3.5M (this is with a simple restructure; a reduction in compensation would bring more)
Mayo $4M (this is with a simple restructure; a reduction is compensation would bring more)
Others ??? (we could gain more through extensions, for example of Arrington)

CONCLUSION
The obvious key is Revis. ALL of the big five can be re-signed with a new contract to Revis and one restructure (with no cut in pay) to either Wilfork or Mayo. BTW, under this scenario, Revis would have a total cap hit of $12M in 2015. This could be increased if both Mayo and Wilfork restructure or if one of them actually accepts a pay cut. If Revis won't sign, then the team has an additional $7M of 2015 cap money (AAV up to $16M) to sign another corner.

I would note that any of these figures could go up or down a bit without changing the conclusion that we have the money to re-sign our players.

BOTTOM LINE
I think that everyone could be re-signed. In addition, if someone is NOT re-signed, there is money available to sign a replacement for equal money.

 

[Brady6]

One thing to keep in mind is that Jones, Hightower, and Collins will all be UFA in the 2017 offseason. I see you giving players like Ayers $3.5M, while I like him that seems steep for a player of his caliber.

McCourty will cost at least $8M APY. I'm not sure if you remember last seasons Wilfork situation but that is not something I'd be revisiting.

Cassillas and Branch at $2M is steep as well.

 

[mayoclinic]

I have only ONE goal: re-sign the best defense that we've had since at least 2007. BTW, we should expect a bit better cap situation in 2016. The only potential major free agents are Solder and Wendell. Also the cap should be higher. I see ZERO need to add free agent defensive players, except to replace those players who move on to other teams. Certainly, we could draft a defensive player or two.
=================
FREE AGENT "BUDGET"
McCourty $7M (4 years, $24M bonus will do it, negotiate salaries for last 3 years plus guarantees)
Ayers $3.5M
Casillas $2.0M
Chung $2.0M
Branch $2.0M
--------------------
Total $16.5M

SOURCES OF CAP SAVINGS
Revis $13M (this can be done even with a $16M AAV)
Wilfork $3.5M (this is with a simple restructure; a reduction in compensation would bring more)
Mayo $4M (this is with a simple restructure; a reduction is compensation would bring more)
Others ??? (we could gain more through extensions, for example of Arrington)

CONCLUSION
The obvious key is Revis. ALL of the big five can be re-signed with a new contract to Revis and one restructure (with no cut in pay) to either Wilfork or Mayo. BTW, under this scenario, Revis would have a total cap hit of $12M in 2015. This could be increased if both Mayo and Wilfork restructure or if one of them actually accepts a pay cut. If Revis won't sign, then the team has an additional $7M of 2015 cap money (AAV up to $16M) to sign another corner.

I would note that any of these figures could go up or down a bit without changing the conclusion that we have the money to re-sign our players.

BOTTOM LINE
I think that everyone could be re-signed. In addition, if someone is NOT re-signed, there is money available to sign a replacement for equal money.

I did this exercise last week, and came to the same conclusion. My breakdown (posted in several different threads):

My rough (approximately) zero-sum approach to keeping the defense intact:

I. Players currently under contract:

1. Darrelle Revis, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $25M (including $5M carryover from 2014).
2. Jerod Mayo, LB. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $10.3M.
3. Vince Wilfork, DT. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $8.4M.
4. Brandon Browner, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.9M.
5. Kyle Arrington, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $4.6M.
6. Rob Ninkovich, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $3.7M.
7. Chandler Jones, DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.6M.
8. Dont'a Hightower, LB/DE. Signed through 2016, with an option for 2017. 2015 cap hit: $2.5M.
9. Dominique Easley, DT/DE. Signed through 2017, with an option for 2018. 2015 cap hit: $1.7M.
10. Alfonzo Dennard, CB. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.
11. Tavon Wilson, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hit: $1.3M.
12. Jamie Collins, LB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1,0M.
13. Logan Ryan, CB/S. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $750K.
14. Duron Harmon, FS. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $725K.
15. Nate Ebner, S. Signed through 2015. 2015 cap hitL $685K.
16. Michael Buchanan, DE/OLB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $600K.
17. Chris Jones, DT/DE. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $585K.
18. Zach Moore, DE. Signed through 2017. 2015 cap hit: $535K.
19. Malcolm Butler, CB. Signed through 2016. 2015 cap hit: $510K.

19 players under contract; total 2015 cap hit = $71.89M.

II. FAs

20. Devin McCourty, FS
21. Akeem Ayers, DE/OLB
22. Pat Chung, SS
23. Alan Branch, DT
24. Jonathan Casillas, LB
25. Sealver Siliga, DT (ERFA)

III. Proposed extensions/signings:

Cap Savings from Extensions/Restructurings:

1. Extend Darrelle Revis: 4 years/$60M, $45M guaranteed, $20M signing bonus. That's a higher AAV than Joe Haden, Richard Sherman or Patrick Peterson, with more guaranteed money than Haden or Sherman and a bigger signing bonus than any of them. It's above the AAV for the top CBs, and bit below the AAV for the top 3 defensive contracts in the NFL (JJ Watt $16,5M AAV; Mario Williams $16M AAV; Gerald McCoy $15.8M AAV). Base salaries + incentives of roughly $7M, $9M, $9M and $15M (the last year non-guaranteed). 2015 cap hit: $17M ($5 million pro-rated signing bonus + $7M base + $5M carryover from 2014). Net 2015 cap savings: $8M. MgTeich and others have suggested more aggressive savings proposals, but I'm being conservative.

2. Restructure Jerod Mayo's deal to lower his 2015 cap his to about $7.5M. Net 2015 cap savings: $2.8M. Not sure if this would be via a direct pay cut, a restructuring, or an extension, but I think there is some room to work here.

3. Extend Kyle Arrington through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

4. Extend Brandon Browner through 2017 with a 1 year $4M extension, lowering his 2015 cap hit by $1M.

Total 2015 cap savings from defensive restructurings/extensions: $12.8M.

Cap Additions from Extensions/Re-Signings:

4. Sign Devin McCourty to a 5 year/$40M extension with $16M guaranteed and a $10M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $2.5M, $5.5M, $6.5M, $6.5M and $9M. 2015 cap hit: $5M.

5. Sign Akeem Ayers to a 4 year/$16M extension with $7.5M guaranteed and a $6.5M signing bonus. Essentially the same deal that Kyle Arrington got in 2013. Base salaries+incentives of $1M, $2M, $3M and $3.5M. 2015 cap hit: $2.625M. Someone could possibly throw more money at Ayers if he chooses to hit FA, but he's had only half a season of productivity and was on the scrap heap fairly recently, so I'm not sure he gets silly money. This deal values him - like Arrington - as a major rotational player and part of the defense, with starting potential.

6. Sign Alan Branch to a 2 year / $3M contract with $1M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M in 2015 and 2016. 2015 cap hit: $1.5M.

7. Sign Patrick Chung to a 2 year / $4M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1.3M and $1.7M. 2015 cap hit: $1.8M.

8. Sign Jonathan Casillas to a 3 year/$4.5M contract with $2M guaranteed and a $1M signing bonus. Base salary+incentives of $1M, $1M and $1.5M. 2015 cap hit of $1.333M.

9. Sign Sealver Siliga to an ERFA contract. 2015 cap hit of around $660K, per Miguel.

Total 2015 defensive extensions/resignings: $12.918M.

That's about a $100K difference, which is minimal, and could probably be made up elsewhere.

These are very crude numbers, and rough estimates. Obviously, any of the re-signings could be drastically altered if someone wants to break the bank. But I think they are reasonable starting points. I think it is possible - though by no means easy, or a given - to keep the defense intact without adding to our current 2015 defensive cap allocation.

This would allow the Pats to potentially retain the 2014 defensive core completely intact for 2015, while keeping their cap space and carryover from 2015 for re-signing offensive and ST players, and for the draft, UDFAs, and contingency funds.

Wilfork's deal will likely be off the books in 2016, providing room for one of the 5th year options on Jones/Hightower. The other can probably be managed with the projected cap growth. Managing extensions for all of Jones, Hightower and Collins will be tricky, but with work the Pats should be able to keep the defense largely intact through 2017.

My scenario did not include a Wilfork restructure.

 

[mgteich]

One thing to keep in mind is that Jones, Hightower, and Collins will all be UFA in the 2016 offseason. I see you giving players like Ayers $3.5M, while I like him that seems steep for a player of his caliber.

Per Miguel's page none of three will be free agents in 2016. Collins will a free agent in 2017. The patriots are expected to pick up the 5th year option on Hightower and Jones, so neither of them are expected to be free agents until 2017.

I expect the Solder situation to be solved in the next couple of months, hopefully with a 5 year extension. That would leave almost nothing for 2016.

 

[Brady6]

Per Miguel's page none of three will be free agents in 2016. Collins will a free agent in 2017. The patriots are expected to pick up the 5th year option on Hightower and Jones, so neither of them are expected to be free agents until 2017.

I expect the Solder situation to be solved in the next couple of months, hopefully with a 5 year extension. That would leave almost nothing for 2016.

After the 2016 season is what I meant. My mistake.

 

[Sciz]

I know this sounds absurd given his situation a year ago, but I wonder if Chung has priced himself out of New England. If he could get $10M/3 after being benched for Steve Gregory in 2012, then I'd say there's at least a chance that some team is willing to give him decent money following a pretty solid 2014 season.

 

[mgteich]

I did this exercise last week, and came to the same conclusion. My breakdown (posted in several different threads):


My scenario did not include a Wilfork restructure.

I apologize for the repetition. This often happens when we discuss issue within threads with different names.

 

[Brady6]

I did this exercise last week, and came to the same conclusion. My breakdown (posted in several different threads):


My scenario did not include a Wilfork restructure.

I don't think Ayers is a $4M a year player personally. I actually really like him to but $4M is almost what we gave Ninkovich last season.

 

[mgteich]

I did this exercise last week, and came to the same conclusion. My breakdown (posted in several different threads):


My scenario did not include a Wilfork restructure.

Also, the offense is a bit more challenging exercise. Of course, we also need to have $6M or so available the week before the season starts for various last minute and in-season costs.

 

[Brady6]

I know this sounds absurd given his situation a year ago, but I wonder if Chung has priced himself out of New England. If he could get $10M/3 after being benched for Steve Gregory in 2012, then I'd say there's at least a chance that some team is willing to give him decent money following a pretty solid 2014 season.

I think he will accept a team friendly deal here given his previous attempt to play for the big bucks didn't go to well.

 

[mayoclinic]

I apologize for the repetition. This often happens when we discuss issue within threads with different names.

No apology required. I think it's a useful exercise that we independently came to the same conclusion. The numbers are slightly different, but there are lots of ways to maneuver to make things work.

It is outstanding to be in the position where (1) the goal is to retain our players, and have no real outside needs, and (2) to potentially have the wherewithal to do so. Not a given, but not out of the question, by any means.

 

[JMC00]

Have you guys taken into considerstion that Brady is gonna demand a new big contract like some of the boston and national mediots have said. I guess he is a me first not a team player and also Gisele is gonna make him get more money.

No lie, borges said the Gisele thing on Sports Tonight and be was 100% serious.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think Ayers is a $4M a year player personally. I actually really like him to but $4M is almost what we gave Ninkovich last season.

Perhaps. The point is that we have $4M (or $3.5M in my scenario) to play Ayers or a replacement. Given who Belichick brought in at DE/OLB during this last off-season and during camp, I would jump at the chance to keep Ayers, even at $4M AAV. IMHO, the question is not what we paid Ninkovich. Rather, IMHO, the question is what Ayers is worth to us, and what other teams would pay Ayers or an equivalent player.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think Ayers is a $4M a year player personally. I actually really like him to but $4M is almost what we gave Ninkovich last season.

To each his own opinion. I think the market for Ayers could be higher if he hits FA, especially if the Pats do well in the post-season (think of Paul Kruger with Baltimore in 2012). Considering what BB gave Arrington in 2013 and Cannon this week, it seems like reasonable compensation for a key rotational player. Also, Nink's contract expires in 2016 and he will be 32. I can personally see Ayers taking over his cap slot, and potentially much of his role.

 

[mayoclinic]

Also, the offense is a bit more challenging exercise. Of course, we also need to have $6M or so available the week before the season starts for various last minute and in-season costs.

I haven't done the offense or ST breakdown yet. I did a preliminary walk through, but I was waiting on the details of Cannon's money. Will try to look at it in more detail tomorrow.

 

[mgteich]

Have you guys taken into considerstion that Brady is gonna demand a new big contract like some of the boston and national mediots have said. I guess he is a me first not a team player and also Gisele is gonna make him get more money.

No lie, borges said the Gisele thing on Sports Tonight and be was 100% serious.

Until I see otherwise, I expect Brady to perform well under his present contract, with normal restructures (moving salary to bonus each year).

If Brady wants a 2018-2020 contract extension, I'm sure that can be worked out, likely in a Manning-type manner ($20M a year almost flat). I don't expect that to happen until the 2017 off-season when the cap room is available.

 

[JMC00]

Ya I expect it too but the way some of the mediots talk about it its like they are confident Brady will holdout or force a trade.

 

[mgteich]

Ya I expect it too but the way some of the mediots talk about it its like they are confident Brady will holdout or force a trade.

I'm sure that this sell newspapers and draws attention to their internet blogs. I suppose, we could discuss this in a separate thread.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm sure that this sell newspapers and draws attention to their internet blogs. I suppose, we could discuss this in a separate thread.

I have frequently wondered if the mediots say some of the things they do because (1) they are truly as stupid as they sound, (2) they are just blinded by hate and jealousy, or (3) they consciously understand that making these kind of dumb big whopper statements gets people to pay attention to them, whereas sound, thoughtful analysis does not. Probably some combination of the three, but I'd be curious as to the actual breakdown.