2013 recieving stats challenge.

[Julius]

Last year Tom Brady had 402 completions and 34 touchdowns.

Those receptions and touchdowns were distributed as follows:

NAME REC YDS AVG TD

Wes Welker............118.......1354.......11.5......6
Brandon Lloyd.........74.........911........12.3.......4
Rob Gronkowski.......55........790.........14.4......11
Aaron Hernandez......51........483.........9.5.......5
Danny Woodhead......40.......446.........11.2......3
Julian Edelman..........21.......235.........11.2......3
Shane Vereen...........8.........149.........18.6......1
Deion Branch............16........145.........9.1.......0
Michael Hooman........5..........109........21.8......0
Daniel Fells................4.........85..........21.3......0
Donte' Stallworth........1.........63..........63.0......0
Stevan Ridley.............6.........51..........8.5........0
Kellen Winslow............1.........12..........12.0......0
Brandon Bolden..........2..........11.........5.5........0

TOTALS: .................402...........4844.........12.1......34


Your mission, if you choose to except it, is to use last years stats as a rough baseline to make an educated guess at this years receiving stats among the following players.

Danny Amendola
Julian Edelman
Kenbrell Thompkins
Josh Boyce
Aaron Dobson
Matthew Slater
Rob Gronkowski
Michael Hoomanawanui
Zach Sudfeld
James Develin
Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
LeGarrette Blount
Leon Washington
Brandon Bolden

At a minimum, take a guess at the # of receptions and TD's for each of these players.

The grand prize is bragging rights.

 

[Ive_Killed_People]

D.a. = 100,1200,8
k.t. = 100,1400,12
j.b = 45,500,3
a.d. = 55,600,4
r.g. =65,900,15
z.s. =45,500,5
s.v. =50,600,4

 

[Julius]

Kenbrell Thompkins...................87 Receptions........5 TD's
Danny Amendola.......................82 Receptions........6 TD's
Rob Gronkowski........................52 Receptions........9 TD's
Shane Vereen...........................35 Receptions........4 TD's
Josh Boyce...............................34 Receptions........2 TD's
Aaron Dobson...........................32 Receptions........4 TD's
Zach Sudfeld.............................30 Receptions.......2 TD's
Michael Hoomanawanui...............17 Receptions.......0 TD's
Leon Washington........................12 Receptions.......1 TD
Julian Edelman...........................11 Receptions.......0 TD's
Stevan Ridley.............................8 Receptions........0 TD's
LeGarrette Blount.......................6 Receptions........1 TD
James Develin.....0
Brandon Bolden....0
Matthew Slater....0

TOTALS:...................................406 Receptions.............34 Touchdowns

I'm predicting that like last year, the running game does a lot of the work in the red zone.

Both Gronk and Amendola will miss some games, so I'm being conservative with their stats.

Shane Vareen will have a big year, perhaps bigger than I have predicted.

Kembrell Thompkins will lead the team in receptions.

 

[goheels22002]

Kenbrell Thompkins...................87 Receptions........5 TD's
Danny Amendola.......................82 Receptions........6 TD's
Rob Gronkowski........................52 Receptions........9 TD's
Shane Vereen...........................35 Receptions........4 TD's
Josh Boyce...............................34 Receptions........2 TD's
Aaron Dobson...........................32 Receptions........4 TD's
Zach Sudfeld.............................30 Receptions.......2 TD's
Michael Hoomanawanui...............17 Receptions.......0 TD's
Leon Washington........................12 Receptions.......1 TD
Julian Edelman...........................11 Receptions.......0 TD's
Stevan Ridley.............................8 Receptions........0 TD's
LeGarrette Blount.......................6 Receptions........1 TD
James Develin.....0
Brandon Bolden....0
Matthew Slater....0

TOTALS:...................................406 Receptions.............34 Touchdowns

I'm predicting that like last year, the running game does a lot of the work in the red zone.

Both Gronk and Amendola will miss some games, so I'm being conservative with their stats.

Shane Vareen will have a big year, perhaps bigger than I have predicted.

Kembrell Thompkins will lead the team in receptions.

This makes it easier to imagine how Brady's completions get spread around. Kenbrell Thompkins is going to have the greatest rookie season for an undrafted player in history. Mr. Kraft, pay the man!

 

[Julius]

This makes it easier to imagine how Brady's completions get spread around. Kenbrell Thompkins is going to have the greatest rookie season for an undrafted player in history. Mr. Kraft, pay the man!

Hah....

I really think if Thompkins stays healthy he will be in line for a big raise. He reminds me of Deion Branch....perhaps not as quick-twitch, but with better speed. I do worry about his health though, he is pretty fearless about going up for the ball.

I'm expecting Amendola to miss a few games, so perhaps Julian will take some more of his production than I have accounted for.

Also... Dobson or Boyce may be riding the bench if the Pat's go with last years offense. I may have overshot with their production.

 

[tonyto3690]

There is no way Boyce is going to get more looks than Dobson. Dobson has more upside, is a better WR now, and is a better redzone target.

Even if Gronkowski was on the PUP, I'd be surprised if he only had 52 REC.



Thompkins - 55 - 700 - 4
Amendola - 80 - 900 - 4
Gronkowski - 70 - 1000 - 13
Dobson - 50 - 600 - 4
Sudfield - 35 - 350 - 4
Vereen - 30 - 200 - 2
Boyce - 15 - 200 - 1
Everyone else - 45 - 300 - 2

Total: 380 REC - 4250 YDS - 35 TD

 

[goheels22002]

Hah....

I really think if Thompkins stays healthy he will be in line for a big raise. He reminds me of Deion Branch....perhaps not as quick-twitch, but with better speed. I do worry about his health though, he is pretty fearless about going up for the ball.

I'm expecting Amendola to miss a few games, so perhaps Julian will take some more of his production than I have accounted for.

Also... Dobson or Boyce may be riding the bench if the Pat's go with last years offense. I may have overshot with their production.

Branch finished 2002 with 43 receptions for 489 yards and two TDs his rookie season.

 

[Julius]

There is no way Boyce is going to get more looks than Dobson. Dobson has more upside, is a better WR now, and is a better redzone target.

Even if Gronkowski was on the PUP, I'd be surprised if he only had 52 REC.



Thompkins - 55 - 700 - 4
Amendola - 80 - 900 - 4
Gronkowski - 70 - 1000 - 13
Dobson - 50 - 600 - 4
Sudfield - 35 - 350 - 4
Vereen - 30 - 200 - 2
Boyce - 15 - 200 - 1
Everyone else - 45 - 300 - 2

Total: 380 REC - 4250 YDS - 35 TD

I was hoping that Dobson would be a David Givens clone who could catch some quick passes and move the chains, but so far he doesn't seem to be nearly as physical as Givens. I hope they keep working him on the short routes this year because this is the area of his game where he needs work.

Your guestimate with TE catches seems reasonable. Last year TE's caught 110 passes.

I think we will see Brady hitting Vareen on some 20-30 yard TD's this year. I'm predicting big things from him.

Boyce is a real wildcard for me. He might not see the field except on special teams, or he might win the job from Dobson and get some looks. If we get a rash of TE injuries, and we are forced to go with more three wide looks, than his stock will go up.

 

[Julius]

Branch finished 2002 with 43 receptions for 489 yards and two TDs his rookie season.

Yes... he was the third option among wide receivers that year, behind Brown and Patten. I'm expecting Thompkins to be the second option for Brady. I'm probably overestimating his likely contribution...we'll see.

The Pat's also relied heavily on their running backs for receptions in 2002 with 93 catches between Smith, Edwards, and Faulk.

2002 New England Patriots Statistics & Players - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[Julius]

Kenbrell Thompkins...................87 Receptions........5 TD's
Danny Amendola.......................82 Receptions........6 TD's
Rob Gronkowski........................52 Receptions........9 TD's
Shane Vereen...........................42 Receptions........5 TD's
Josh Boyce...............................34 Receptions........2 TD's
Aaron Dobson...........................32 Receptions........4 TD's
Zach Sudfeld.............................30 Receptions.......2 TD's
Michael Hoomanawanui...............17 Receptions.......0 TD's
Julian Edelman...........................11 Receptions.......0 TD's
Stevan Ridley.............................8 Receptions........0 TD's
LeGarrette Blount.......................6 Receptions........1 TD
James Develin............................5 Receptions........0 TD's
Brandon Bolden....0
Matthew Slater....0

TOTALS:...................................406 Receptions.............34 Touchdowns


With Washington's release I'm revising my estimates and splitting Washington's production between Vareen and Develin.

They have to throw to the full back once in a while.