2012 Patriots Pandemonium Positional Preview ~ Quarter Backs

[Off The Grid]

QB "Terminator" Tom Brady

Nobody is a more obnoxiously relentless fan of Tom Brady than I. For my money, he has no peer, this Century. His Diagnostic Acuity, his Work Ethic, his relentless efforts to integrate each and every player, and, above all, his Processing Speed under fire raise him head and shoulders above the rest, when considering his whole Body of Work.

But there is a problem.

An enormous problem.

When Tom Brady was his best ~ yes: I'm afraid I just used the past tense ~ it was when he was spreading the ball around. I've always said that the greatest Field Generals Use The Whole Pig. And it was precisely Brady's unfettered willingness, from 2001 to 2004, to involve every single man in the Attack that made us so dangerous, so difficult to stop when we were driving downfield, deep in the depths of Winter, even against the most stalwart, tenacious D's.

Brady was dedicated to spreading the ball around ~ to being unpredictable.

And that made him....deadly.

But something rather horrible has happened, since 2007.

Brady has become...conservative.

He has ~ virtually ~ stopped taking chances.

I am not a Stats guy, but sometimes Statistics illustrate a dramatic change in trend.

Consider, if you will: the number of Patriots with 10 Receptions or more, since 2001:

2001 ~ 09
2002 ~ 10
2003 ~ 09
2004 ~ 10
2005 ~ 10
2006 ~ 11
2007 ~ 06
2008 ~ 06
2009 ~ 09
2010 ~ 07
2011 ~ 06

With the vast improvement in his Weaponry since 2007, Brady has made what on the face of it would seem to be a logical choice: He's focused virtually all of his attention ~ and his Targets ~ on the premium Weaponry.

This has resulted in a tremendous reduction in Interceptions, in addition to his legendarily gaudy statistics.

One problem.

He has become predictable.

And predictability is fatal when you finally get to the Big Games.

In 2001 and 2003, I not only hoped that General Tom would lead us downfield for the Super Bowl Winning Drives...I expected it.

In 2007 and 2011...I only hoped.

Tell me you remember it differently.

Tom Brady is ~ without peer ~ the best QuarterBack of this Era.

I pray that his dedication to self-improvement will tell him what he needs to do to be the best QB of 2012:

Use The Whole Pig, Tom.

QB Ryan Mallett

It's no secret that I've never been a fan of Ryan Mallett, and was horrified to see Bill The Mad (Genius) burn off a perfectly good 3rd Rounder on the guy. I think it was an horrible mistake, just as I thought drafting Kevin O'Connell was an horrible mistake at the moment it happened, in 2008...when Red Bryant was sitting there. Hopefully, Bill The Mad (Genius) will be proven right, this time, as he has indeed been on so many other occasions.

But I don't think so: Mallett commands exceptional Diagnostic Acuity, but his Processing Speed sucks, and that, Ladies and Laddies, is something that I'm afraid will prove fatal at this level. I pray for Tom Brady's health, because I think that the only chance Mallett has to be a success for us, this year, will be if he's thrown into the fire in the second half of the Super Bowl, when there's been absolutely no chance for the opposing DC to study him.

Positional Prognosis​

General Tom Brady is ~ without peer ~ The Greatest QuarterBack of his Generation, possibly of All Time.

And when I say "Great", I'm not talking about Golden Arms and Fantasy FootBall Championships.

When I say "Great"...I speak exclusively of how equipped he is to go toe to toe with the best Defenses in the world, in the deepest part of Winter...and emerge victorious.

And there is not a Soul I'd rather have under center, this Winter, thank you very much, Aaron Rodgers...Though I do reserve the right to change my mind if he doesn't start spreading the ball around, like the Tom of Old.

But our Depth of Talent sucks.

Mallett is not ready...And Mad Bill is gambling that either he will be, or that we won't need'm.

Not the wisest Bet he's ever made, if you ask me.

The Future​

Given my Druthers, we'd've stolen a combination of Greg McElroy, Kellen Moore, and Ricky Stanzi, during the last two Drafts. In my deeply twisted view of the world, Greg McElroy and Ricky Stanzi were the best two QuarterBack Prospects of the 2011 Draft, and Kellen Moore was right up there with Andrew Luck. No, that is not a typo!! Hah!!

But Chances are good that someone'f their ilk will emerge this season, and I pray we land'm.

And until then, I'm praying that I'm as wrong about Mallett as I was spot on about Kevin O'Connell, Mad Bill's previous 3rd Round QuarterBack blunder, taken with Red Bryant still on the Board. Oy!!

 

[crawhammer]

Overall a good post however...

Brady's not "predictable." He was absolutely brilliant in 2007, 2010 and 2011 (the former two seasons being arguably the best two seasons by a QB in history of the NFL). A predictable QB could not have approached the level of success achieved by Brady.

The not "spreading the ball around" enough knock is basically unfounded too. Of his capable targets last season, they (Gronk, Hernandez, Welker and Branch) all had over 700 yards receiving (three had over 900). No other team in the league had four players surpass 700 yards receiving.

As for the latter two Super Bowl references... Brady did lead a late fourth quarter go ahead TD drive after having taken a beating for four quarters in '07 (to only have the defense choke it up moments later) and last year the Gronk injury, the ill-conceived gameplan of leaving an injured Gronk on the field as a decoy, the subsequent lack of receiver depth, and the crappy Patriots' defense were the fatal flaws in that loss.

Brady is poised to have another tremendous season this year (even with the surprising lack of depth at WR again). And we had better hope he doesn't go down with an injury because you are right about Mallett... not ready, not now, not ever...

 

[pdangle]

If true, wouldn't it be more accurate to say that Brady has not become predictable, but that the play-calling has become predictable? Just saying.

 

[Off The Grid]

Overall a good post however...

Brady's not "predictable." He was absolutely brilliant in 2007, 2010 and 2011 (the former two seasons being arguably the best two seasons by a QB in history of the NFL). A predictable QB could not have approached the level of success achieved by Brady.

The not "spreading the ball around" enough knock is basically unfounded too. Of his capable targets last season, they (Gronk, Hernandez, Welker and Branch) all had over 700 yards receiving (three had over 900). No other team in the league had four players surpass 700 yards receiving.

As for the latter two Super Bowl references... Brady did lead a late fourth quarter go ahead TD drive after having taken a beating for four quarters in '07 (to only have the defense choke it up moments later) and last year the Gronk injury, the ill-conceived gameplan of leaving an injured Gronk on the field as a decoy, the subsequent lack of receiver depth, and the crappy Patriots' defense were the fatal flaws in that loss.

Brady is poised to have another tremendous season this year (even with the surprising lack of depth at WR again). And we had better hope he doesn't go down with an injury because you are right about Mallett... not ready, not now, not ever...

Just the sort of swill I might've expected.

You obviously haven't read anything I've posted before ~ or my Opening Statement.

Otherwise you wouldn't made such a pathetic defense of He Who Needs No Defending.

"Predictable" ~ I really shouldn't have to explain this ~ is a relative term.

And the "Not Spreading It Out As Broadly As He Used To" case that I presented in simple, single digit form, is, despite your fumbling, stumbling, bumbling attack, 100% correct, as I have ~ to reiterate ~ already proven, right in front of your nose, and in crystal clear, single digit numbers that even a fourth grader would have little difficulty grasping.

Well, I expected such responses, and I'm sure there'll be more: Despite my long history of unfettered, unabashed Brady worshipping, my having the unspeakable temerity to critically analyze the guy ~ as I do Coach Bill, despite an equally fervent adoration ~ will cause a feral, knee-jerk response from the lower life forms ~ this isn't directed at you, Craw ~ who're incapable of being objective about someone they admire.

 

[DarrylS]

This fourth grader has a difficult time with numbers that essentially mean the same.. or even nothing.

You state that in '01, '03 and '09 there were 9 receivers with 10 or more receptions, which essentially negates your argument..

Is 10 or more receptions a good barometer of anything??? Think the obvious weakness of your chosen standards, essentially negates your argument.

 

[Off The Grid]

This fourth grader has a difficult time with numbers that essentially mean the same.. or even nothing.

You state that in '01, '03 and '09 there were 9 receivers with 10 or more receptions, which essentially negates your argument..

Is 10 or more receptions a good barometer of anything??? Think the obvious weakness of your chosen standards, essentially negates your argument.

My friend, if one GLANCE at what I laid out for you ~ in the simplest possible terms ~ doesn't make the contrast between the Blue years and the Red years ABUNDANTLY clear, I WEEP for you!!

My GOD, I'm gonna make some enemies with this Thread!!

* And allow me, if I may, to forestall another angle some genius is sure to take: NO. I am NOT saying that "X number of guys catching 10 Balls = Super Bowl." ~ just pointing out an interesting TREND, Gentlemen...

 

[Off The Grid]

You state that in '01, '03 and '09 there were 9 receivers with 10 or more receptions, which essentially negates your argument...

OK, I gotta ask, because I am MORBIDLY curious...

How, in the name of GOD, does that "negate my argument"??? THIS outta be good!!

 

[DarrylS]

Not sure you are going to make enemies on an anonymous internet message board, but you certainly like to bring attention to yourself.. so much so, imo it negates the argument you present..

I think your figures are not all that reliable, and hardly a barometer or success or failure...

 

[Off The Grid]

Not sure you are going to make enemies on an anonymous internet message board, but you certainly like to bring attention to yourself.. so much so, imo it negates the argument you present...

There I go...negating my argument, again!!

Here's a clue: Every last post "brings attention" to the poster. EVERY post is an invitation to pay "attention" to the poster, including yours, here. HOPEFULLY, I didn't need to break that down for you...Given that, exactly HOW am I illustrating that I "like to bring attention" to myself, seeing as how you've quickly descended to slandering me?

*Please answer quickly. You're on the verge of boring the CRAP out'f me, and I don't know how much longer I can feign interest.

 

[crawhammer]

Just the sort of swill I might've expected.

You obviously haven't read anything I've posted before ~ or my Opening Statement.

Otherwise you wouldn't made such a pathetic defense of He Who Needs No Defending.

"Predictable" ~ I really shouldn't have to explain this ~ is a relative term.

And the "Not Spreading It Out As Broadly As He Used To" case that I presented in simple, single digit form, is, despite your fumbling, stumbling, bumbling attack, 100% correct, as I have ~ to reiterate ~ already proven, right in front of your nose, and in crystal clear, single digit numbers that even a fourth grader would have little difficulty grasping.

Or perhaps just this...your arguments are painfully obtuse. Seriously, Brady's become "conservative, predictable, and is not taking chances"...that's astonishingly dumb analysis. We are after all taking about a QB that during this "horrible" timespan won league MVP, comeback player of the year, unanimous league MVP, threw for the second most yards in the history of the league, and set numerous other NFL passing records. A conservative, predictable QB doesn't achieve such great heights and annually lead his offense to prolific numbers and top rankings. So very simply, you are wrong.

Also, your single digit numbers illustration is about fourth grader level. Really a largely irrelevant stat. Certainly not indicative of anything specifically about Brady. Generally speaking over his career he has increasingly gotten the football to the open receiver with greater accuracy and distance...he has delivered his best completion percentages and yards per attempt over his last four seasons which says much more about his approach and the results than your ridiculous numbers.

I read your opening statement too, and it was the part I referred to as good, but you lost your way when you tried to point out "an enormous problem."

This New England Patriots franchise is pretty much crap absent Brady. The success HE has brought is irrefutable.

 

[crypto]

wtf am i reading

i feel vaguely offended

 

[manxman2601]

Or perhaps just this...your arguments are painfully obtuse. Seriously, Brady's become "conservative, predictable, and is not taking chances"...that's astonishingly dumb analysis. We are after all taking about a QB that during this "horrible" timespan won league MVP, comeback player of the year, unanimous league MVP, threw for the second most yards in the history of the league, and set numerous other NFL passing records. A conservative, predictable QB doesn't achieve such great heights and annually lead his offense to prolific numbers and top rankings. So very simply, you are wrong.

Also, your single digit numbers illustration is about fourth grader level. Really a largely irrelevant stat. Certainly not indicative of anything specifically about Brady. Generally speaking over his career he has increasingly gotten the football to the open receiver with greater accuracy and distance...he has delivered his best completion percentages and yards per attempt over his last four seasons which says much more about his approach and the results than your ridiculous numbers.

I read your opening statement too, and it was the part I referred to as good, but you lost your way when you tried to point out "an enormous problem."

This New England Patriots franchise is pretty much crap absent Brady. The success HE has brought is irrefutable.

Didn't we have an 11-5 record in the year we were "absent Brady"?

 

[Gumby]

QB "Terminator" Tom Brady​

​

Nobody is a more obnoxiously relentless fan of Tom Brady than I. For my money, he has no peer, this Century. His Diagnostic Acuity, his Work Ethic, his relentless efforts to integrate each and every player, and, above all, his Processing Speed under fire raise him head and shoulders above the rest, when considering his whole Body of Work.

But there is a problem.

An enormous problem.

When Tom Brady was his best ~ yes: I'm afraid I just used the past tense ~ it was when he was spreading the ball around. .......Brady was dedicated to spreading the ball around ~ to being unpredictable.

And that made him....deadly.

But something rather horrible has happened, since 2007.

.....
Consider, if you will: the number of Patriots with 10 Receptions or more, since 2001:

2001 ~ 09
2002 ~ 10
2003 ~ 09
2004 ~ 10
2005 ~ 10
2006 ~ 11
2007 ~ 06
2008 ~ 06
2009 ~ 09
2010 ~ 07
2011 ~ 06

....
One problem.

He has become predictable.

And predictability is fatal when you finally get to the Big Games.

In 2001 and 2003, I not only hoped that General Tom would lead us downfield for the Super Bowl Winning Drives...I expected it.

In 2007 and 2011...I only hoped.

Tell me you remember it differently.

In inverse order;
SB memories: No i don't remember differently, I hoped. But not sure how much I attribute that to TB and how much to each time our OL suffered an or multiple in-game injuries upsetting the prep/continuity they had for probably the best pass-rushing team each of those years (NYG).

Largest fallacy in your stats is using 2008 considering TB played what 5 min that season? So you have to take that year out.

2007 was obviously the Moss year and one which VERY VERY MUCH brought out the problem that you are PARTIALLY but not entirely nailing. TB was dedicated in 2007 to putting the ball in small places to Moss; contingent on Moss 'Playing when he wants to play'; which for soem reason HE DIDNT WHEN ALL THE MARBLES WERE ON THE LINE.

They saw the problem and tried to correct in 09 after the LOST YEAR; but in 2010 and 11 they just ran out of depth.

That is another issue - I think in those earlier years when he had so many targets; there were simply more guys getting on the field due to health reasons or just because there wasn't that much difference between #1 wr and #4; so they rotated them around more. But I have no stats to back that up; just a feeling. (would have to check # off plays per skill player for each year - and I dont have that time).

I am not sure how much Brady has changed in LOOKING FOR THE OPEN GUY and how much the offense has had it dictated by personnel that he only has a certain number of guys to put on the field. But I would agree that for at least 2 years - The Randy Moss effect RUINED some of what as best about TB - that he did look for the OPEN guy and not THE GUY.

 

[Shed83]

Consider, if you will: the number of Patriots with 10 Receptions or more, since 2001:

2001 ~ 09
2002 ~ 10
2003 ~ 09
2004 ~ 10
2005 ~ 10
2006 ~ 11
2007 ~ 06
2008 ~ 06
2009 ~ 09
2010 ~ 07
2011 ~ 06

With the vast improvement in his Weaponry since 2007, Brady has made what on the face of it would seem to be a logical choice: He's focused virtually all of his attention ~ and his Targets ~ on the premium Weaponry.

We won Superbowls in 01 & 03 with 9 recipients

We had our worst season with Brady in 09 with 9 recipients.

Just saying

 

[crawhammer]

Didn't we have an 11-5 record in the year we were "absent Brady"?

That would be 5 more losses than the previous season with Brady. And their schedule was ridiculously soft in 2008. They lost their 3 most important conference matchups (vs Indy, Pitt, & SD) and Cassel was collectively abysmal in those contests (6 turnovers & 0 TD's). And most tellingly, they didn't make the postseason. So yeah, the 11 wins were meaningless.

Specifically look at the decline of the passing game and overall offense from 2007 (with Brady) to 2008 (with Cassel)...

Passing categories which declined:
total yards (starting QB) from 4806 to 3693
Y/G from 300.4 to 230.8
Y/A from 8.3 to 7.2
Pct from 68.9 to 63.4
TD from 50 to 21
TD/INT differential from +42 to +10
TD% from 8.7 to 4.1
QBR from 117.2 to 89.4
overall (team) rank from 1st to 10th

(Brady led the NFL in all those individual categories in 2007)

Offensive categories which declined:
Pts/G from 36.8 to 25.6
3rdD% from 48.2 to 43.2
Red zone rank from 2nd to 19th
Red zone TD from 50 to 33
Red zone TD% from .694 to .508
Red zone scoring% from .944 to .892

So, to reiterate, Brady's the single most important player to any franchise in the history of the league. 9 division titles and 5 Super Bowl appearances in 10 seasons as a starting QB, 3 Super Bowl titles, 2 Super Bowl MVP's, 2 NFL MVP's, 7 pro bowls, and numerous regular season and postseason records.

No one has ever had the impact of Brady:
7 division titles and 0 championships in 41 seasons without him
9 division titles and 3 championships in 10 seasons with him

 

[manxman2601]

That would be 5 more losses than the previous season with Brady. And their schedule was ridiculously soft in 2008. They lost their 3 most important conference matchups (vs Indy, Pitt, & SD) and Cassel was collectively abysmal in those contests (6 turnovers & 0 TD's). And most tellingly, they didn't make the postseason. So yeah, the 11 wins were meaningless.

Specifically look at the decline of the passing game and overall offense from 2007 (with Brady) to 2008 (with Cassel)...

Passing categories which declined:
total yards (starting QB) from 4806 to 3693
Y/G from 300.4 to 230.8
Y/A from 8.3 to 7.2
Pct from 68.9 to 63.4
TD from 50 to 21
TD/INT differential from +42 to +10
TD% from 8.7 to 4.1
QBR from 117.2 to 89.4
overall (team) rank from 1st to 10th

(Brady led the NFL in all those individual categories in 2007)

Offensive categories which declined:
Pts/G from 36.8 to 25.6
3rdD% from 48.2 to 43.2
Red zone rank from 2nd to 19th
Red zone TD from 50 to 33
Red zone TD% from .694 to .508
Red zone scoring% from .944 to .892

So, to reiterate, Brady's the single most important player to any franchise in the history of the league. 9 division titles and 5 Super Bowl appearances in 10 seasons as a starting QB, 3 Super Bowl titles, 2 Super Bowl MVP's, 2 NFL MVP's, 7 pro bowls, and numerous regular season and postseason records.

No one has ever had the impact of Brady:
7 division titles and 0 championships in 41 seasons without him
9 division titles and 3 championships in 10 seasons with him

An 11-5 record is not "crap" as you said. Worse? Yes. You could have used "not as good" or "temporarily declined" but I think BB, Bob Kraft, Welker, Moss, Bruschi etc etc might object when you call them "crap".

 

[crawhammer]

An 11-5 record is not "crap" as you said. Worse? Yes. You could have used "not as good" or "temporarily declined" but I think BB, Bob Kraft, Welker, Moss, Bruschi etc etc might object when you call them "crap".

It's crap when just a season before you went 16-0 with a much tougher schedule. It's crap when it's not good enough to get you into the postseason. It's crap when a successful season for your franchise has become nothing less than a Super Bowl championship.

But anyhow, my original statement was, this New England Patriots franchise is pretty much crap absent Brady. That's not to say other individual players are necessarily crap or didn't contributed but the fact of the matter is this franchise is 51 seasons old and the breakdown is:
7 division titles and 0 championships in 41 seasons without Brady
9 division titles and 3 championships in 10 seasons with Brady

The latter is stellar.
The former is crap.