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2012 Offense - As Good As 2011?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgteich, Feb 16, 2012.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yes, we need to have improvements on the defense. And yes, we are looking for a #3 and #4 WR to upgrade Ocho and Underwood.

    But, first we have lots of work to do to maintain what we had in 2011 on offense. This is not a huge list, not worse than most years. But we should not ignore the needs.
    ==========================================

    RB
    Green Ellis is unsigned.

    C
    Connolly and Koppen are unsigned.

    OG
    Waters may retire. Many consider him our best OL of 2011.

    WR
    Welker and Branch are unsigned.

    We will have achieved status quo if everyone is back (well, one of Connolly and Koppen). This presumes that improved production by youngsters makes up for diminished production from older players like Branch and Waters who seem unlikely to produce as much as in 2011).

    BOTTOM LINE
    If everyone is back, the primary opportunity for upgrade is at WR. At very minimum, we will upgrade Underwood. We might also upgrade Johnson and/or Branch. We could also add insurance/depth at TE; a Crumpler type player would be a fine addition.
     
  2. VrabelJr

    VrabelJr In the Starting Line-Up

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    We will still have an elite offense but I expect a slight drop off. The schedule of defenses we play next year looks to be a lot more challenging (barring any major drop offs) than what we played this year.
     
  3. Ron Sellers

    Ron Sellers 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Considering that free agency has not even begun yet, I would say that it is nearly impossible to predict whether the 2012 offense will be as good as the 2011 version right now.
     
  4. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree.

    My point was that we have lots of personnel moves to make before our talent was the equal of 2011.

     
  5. Smokeeye123

    Smokeeye123 On the Roster

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    ...How could our offense possibly be worse than last year? We will have all the same parts, (barring BJGE, but Vereen and Ridley can fill in), and will most likely have deep threats next year.
     
  6. VrabelJr

    VrabelJr In the Starting Line-Up

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    Because our offense was pretty fresh and new. Now other teams have 19 games of film on it.
     
  7. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We could be hoping that Welker plays the first few games on his franchise tag, have no #2 or #3 receiver, have Wendell at center, and have Cannon at RG.

    The point is that we do NOT have the same parts as 2011 unless our own free agents are re-signed.

    Perhaps Ridley and Vereen can produce as much as Ridley and Green-Ellis. It is certainly not a sure thing by any means.

     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2012
  8. LetsGoPats36

    LetsGoPats36 On the Game Day Roster

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    How could it possibly be worse?

    Statistically, this was an immensely successful offensive year and an offense that was able to avoid serious injury until the AFCCG. We also played a very easy schedule.

    It's not hard to imagine that the offense in 2012 doesn't put up as many points or yards as last season.


    Still doesn't change the fact that if the plan for free agency HAS to be to retool the defense.

    Connolly, Koppen, BJGE and Branch are all fungible. Not a single one of those guys is going to command a lot of money on the open market. BJGE would probably get the most but I can't see another team bending over backwards to hand him a huge contract. I like the guy and all, but would he really be considered a "big, detrimental loss?" We drafted Ridley and Vereen high for a reason. BJGE saw his touches reduced by 50 this year and was well under 4.0 yards per carry.

    Losing Waters would suck but there are some solid guards set to hit the market.
     
  9. bucky

    bucky 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    The offense has potential to be better. But as long as the Defense isn't significantly better, they'll still be 1 bad Brady game away from being eliminated.
     
  10. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    you mean one dropped pass?

     
  11. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    OL: Equal. Solder/Vollmer/Connolly/Cannon another year of experience, Light and Waters another year older, Waters could retire too.

    TE: +. It's hard to argue the greatest TE duo of all time could improve, but I see room for improvement for Hernandez. He's great, and I think he can become a top 5 TE.

    RB. Either - or +. BJGE, when healhy, (2010, early 2011, playoffs) is an above average, underrated RB. If Ridley can play like he did vs. the Raiders and the Dolphins, he may be a hell of a RB, if he's inconsistent/fumblitis, it could get worse without BJGE.

    -Woodhead also returned to 2010 form towards the end of the season. He could be a 50 catch, dynamic RB.

    WR + or -, I expect it to improve with the resigning of Welker, Lloyd/or other FA added, and a WR drafted.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2012
  12. ATippett56

    ATippett56 Pro Bowl Player

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    Actually, the 2010 New England Patriots offense was better than the 2011 New England Patriots offense.

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2011 OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

    2010 New England Patriots season - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

     
  13. bucky

    bucky 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Yes, 1 dropped by either ourselves (Welker), or the opposition (Lee Evans).
     
  14. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Luckily, film is not going to change the fact that basically no CB, LB, or S matches up well one-on-one with GRONK, and nobody in the league can cover Welker one-on-one for an entire game. :D
     
  15. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 In the Starting Line-Up

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    in 2010 BJGE and Woodhead had career years running the ball with over 1500 yards rushing and 18 TD's this year they had just over 1000 yards 12 TD's and a lot less Receiving yards,

    my point is it's unfair to think that Welker and Gronk and Brady will have the same type of season next year, i think the best way to make sure you still have a 30+ point offense next year is to get a good return game on ST and a defense that can get fast 3 and outs. some dept at WR and a good running game would also help a lot
     
  16. LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks

    LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks On the Game Day Roster

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    Outside of Waters (and Welker, but he's getting franchised), I don't really view that list as very daunting to replace.

    The guys who are FA's are probably the spots that are the ones we could've upgraded the most. Branch at this stage is ideally more of a #3 WR than a starting #2 WR. Considering how much he wants to be in NE and a declining skill set that won't attract much on the open market, guessing that's exactly his role next year.

    I think we will be upgrading if we hand over the reigns to Ridley and Vereen from Benjarvus. No fumbles is nice, but not when it comes with 3.7 YPC when the run isn't even what teams gear up to stop vs. us. Throw in just 9 catches and I think we become a tougher offense to defend with the more athletically gifted kids who have shown more pass catching ability.

    Koppen/Connolly are both probably respectable, average starting centers at this point. They won't be very hard or expensive to sign/replace.

    If Waters returns, I like our chances of being a better offense in 2012 due to upgrades at WR (whether it's through a deep FA class or deep draft class) and RB. If he retires, I'd say it'll be remain about the same.
     
  17. Fencer

    Fencer Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    It was a fortunate health year on offense, until the Gronkle. The two starters who were lost for a lot of the season had pretty strong backups. The more damaging injuries were briefer.
     
  18. BaltimorePatsFan

    BaltimorePatsFan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    The most important piece of the offense, Tom Brady, is going to be 35 when the season starts and I won't be shocked if he starts showing his age. As we all know, he threw a bunch of untimely interceptions that changed the momentum throughout the season and that could be a bad sign.
     
  19. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This thread seems just a little premature.
     
  20. Joey007

    Joey007 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I say it'll be worse if Brady shows some age, we don't sign a FA Wideout, our O-line gets and plays older, or our 2nd year RB's don't improve.

    BUT..... it'll get better if we get a guy like Lloyd and also draft a stud WR, our line keeps it up, Vereen and Ridley become monsters in the backfield, and of course- Brady plays as bad-a as ever.
     
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