2012 NFL Salary Cap Projections

[micronin127]

Hi Jason,

I sent you an e-mail via the 'Contact' link at your site and included my e-mail address. Thank you for your offer to help!

Also, thanks for the information on qualifications for veteran's exemption. I struggle with all the things that must be guessed at. One example would be Matt Light's contract widely reported to be 2 years and 12 million. But if you add everything up that was reported it totals $10.5 million. So the remaining 1.5 million must have been incentives. Did he earn them? If it was for the Pro Bowl then no he didn't. If they were for playing time, then he probably did.

I struggle with the blog format to publish my content as I don't have capability to host a site. I am using a tool to convert spreadsheets to HTML tables and using Notepad to create markup.

I have been focused on roster analysis to date and prioritizing team needs. I think that I am within $1 million of being 100% accurate, but until we learn how many incentives last year's team earned we won't get the true adjusted cap numbers for each team.

Take care, Mike

 

[jason423]

I will also welcome you. I personally like it when Jets fans can actually come here and talk informatively without the trash talk. We had a few good, civil debates on Jets Insider.

Can you clear up a debate on another thread. You were the first to report that dead money accrued by a certain date before the lock out would be wiped from the books. The Jets clearly benefited from that clause and seemed prepared for it by cutting three players with a lot of dead money right before the lockout. You seem to have a lot of contacts within the Jets' organization. Was this a clause in the CBA that the Jets' championed? Did they just know that the league were going to include this clause? We they just lucky.

I wish I had alot of contacts within the Jets organization! When it came to the uncapped year I think every team had some uncertainty about what would happen but the NFL was handling the accelerations in 2010 the same way they were in 2009 which meant no June 1st rules about cuts. So it seemed pretty clear that it was the direction the league was leaning and the CBA seemed to also point in that direction. It was 100% guaranteed so it was a calculated risk, but I think most teams realized it was likely going to be the case.

There were plenty of teams who benefited from those uncapped years if they choose to use all the cap space they created. Teams like the Redskins, Chiefs, and 49ers all did some really neat cap moves to benefit the team in the future. The only team to really mess it up was the Raiders who didnt use it the way other teams did.

In the Jets case I think things kind of balanced out. When they signed all those deals the expectation for 2011 was a cap of somewhere around 135 million and not 120 million. Woody, Faneca, Jenkins, etc...were never going to be on this team in 2011. The real big benefit they got was being able to trade Kerry Rhodes which never would have occurred without the uncapped year. They also had to cut a fat check to Faneca because the uncapped year kept them from being able to cut him when they wanted to in order to avoid that $5 million payment everyone ripped the Jets for in 2010.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The question at issue is not about the uncapped year. It concerns the unique CBA loophole where dead money accrued by a certain date before the lock out would be wiped from the books.

The Jets clearly benefited from that clause and seemed prepared for it by presciently cutting three players with a lot of dead money right before the lockout. Why that date? Why was this clause with a specific date inserted into the CBA well after that date had passed? Rational teams would have cleaned up their zombie dead cap players had they known about this clause with this magic date. It's interesting that without this specific, unique clause, the Jets would have had almost a $10M dead cap problem.

 

[jason423]

The question at issue is not about the uncapped year. It concerns the unique CBA loophole where dead money accrued by a certain date before the lock out would be wiped from the books.

The Jets clearly benefited from that clause and seemed prepared for it by presciently cutting three players with a lot of dead money right before the lockout. Why that date? Why was this clause with a specific date inserted into the CBA well after that date had passed? Rational teams would have cleaned up their zombie dead cap players had they known about this clause with this magic date. It's interesting that without this specific, unique clause, the Jets would have had almost a $10M dead cap problem.

Well it really all goes back to the rules of the uncapped season. The way the uncapped rules worked is that all money accelerated when the player was cut. This was why they could not cut Faneca in 2010. They did not have the 2009 cap room to absorb the cap hit. Likewise Miami had to take Joey Porter back for the same reason and then cut him when the new league year began.

It wasnt really a magical date. IIRC the new league year was set to begin on March 3 which probably meant the old League year technically ended on the 1st and Im sure the worry was if any player was on the roster as of that date then dead money would accrue whenever play resumed. They probably just wanted the guys gone in February when there would be no confusion.

The actual date in the new CBA was March 11 not Feb 28th when the Jets released everyone. That was the last day before official lockout so they were just saying if you did anything before the lockout it would vanish from the books as it did in 2009 and during the season in 2010. The Browns, Bears and Texans all made similar moves in February. I think the basic premise was to get guys off the team before March to try to avoid the dead money. Most teams, except the Raiders, seemed to all make really good use of those uncapped seasons to clear up cap room in 2011 and beyond.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mara said at the superbowl he didn't expect the cap to rise at all... Sounds like he knew of what he spoke.

Cap could be lower than expected | ProFootballTalk

 

[DW Toys]

I don't think Leigh Bodden is going to scare him from spending money. If getting burnt on secondary players scared Belichick, he wouldn't have spent high draft picks on McCourty and Dowling after getting burnt by Wheatley, Wilhite, and Butler.

People act like Belichick is a timid person who once he gets burnt on a player, he will never spend high on a player in that position again. Belichick has no fear in that area. If he sees a guy he thinks is a good fit and he think he can get him at the right price, he will spend.

Belichick did try to get Julius Peppers, but the Bears paid stupid money for him. People say that Belichick would never try to get a top free agent after getting burned by Adalius Thomas.

Cousin, People forget Adalius Thamas actually had a decent first year and a half for us. He made some super plays like the SD game. He was our best D player in the Super Bowl.
He stopped working and started talking like a locker room politician after that. Same disease that Randy Moss got. Dillion caught a bit of that to although he and Randy were trades not FA.

In all honesty BB is a better judge of FA players and trades than Draft Choices without question. His results in Drafts are documented as mid pack. I think he trades picks because he does not want to make that flawed high pick mistake like Chad Jackson. I think he has more fear Draft day. "I can trade the pick and not deal with it until next draft and the perfect player next year".

Take the best Pats players in the last ten years. You will find the minority were third rounders or higher versus the list of FA and trades that came in that have been ultra productive and stars.
Example:
Third Round and up Drafts (ten years and top three rounds)-
Top Tier-
Mankins
Wilfork
Mayo
Branch
Light
Gronk
Warren
Seymour

OK A KICKER....THERE... GOSTKOWSKI

Possible Top Tier-
Hernandez
Solder
Chung
Spikes
Volmer
McCourty

FA/TRADE TOP TIER

Moss
Welker
Vrabel
Harrison
Carter
Waters
Dillon
Pfifer
Izzo


You had a few FA/TRADES that were problems like Thomas and his maybe only one good year or limited results
Colvin-Injuries
Fauria
Bodden for one year then came injuries
Seau had some good games
Wiggins the first SB year
Antoine Smith had some decent games
Sammy Morris
Woodhead has been a great value

Failures;
If you want to say Thomas, that is fair.
Haynesworth (very limited exposure)
Ochocinco who has done what he can but TB and BOB never trusted him so let's dump him and save the CAP. I am not buying playbook the whole season. Watch film, the kid was open. Not all his fault.
Doug Gabriel (what happened there? Looked unstoppable for a few games then....nyet)
Spings
O'Neal

I won't name all the top three round Draft failures in the last ten years but you get my point. Way higher failure rate.

DW Toys

 

[Rob0729]

Well it really all goes back to the rules of the uncapped season. The way the uncapped rules worked is that all money accelerated when the player was cut. This was why they could not cut Faneca in 2010. They did not have the 2009 cap room to absorb the cap hit. Likewise Miami had to take Joey Porter back for the same reason and then cut him when the new league year began.

It wasnt really a magical date. IIRC the new league year was set to begin on March 3 which probably meant the old League year technically ended on the 1st and Im sure the worry was if any player was on the roster as of that date then dead money would accrue whenever play resumed. They probably just wanted the guys gone in February when there would be no confusion.

The actual date in the new CBA was March 11 not Feb 28th when the Jets released everyone. That was the last day before official lockout so they were just saying if you did anything before the lockout it would vanish from the books as it did in 2009 and during the season in 2010. The Browns, Bears and Texans all made similar moves in February. I think the basic premise was to get guys off the team before March to try to avoid the dead money. Most teams, except the Raiders, seemed to all make really good use of those uncapped seasons to clear up cap room in 2011 and beyond.

Thanks for the imput.

I don't know if the certain date meant much, but I think it had more to do with cutting players before the lockout or new football year. Typically, players with a lot of dead cap money aren't cut until after the next football year started to spread some of the dead money into the next football year. I may be wrong, but if last year was a typical football year under the old CBA, the Jets would have been penalized for cutting those three players before the start of the next calendar year and forced to recognize most of the dead money in the 2011 season rather than spread it out over two seasons. If true, the Jets had to have some inkling that this clause would be in the new CBA that that dead money would be wiped off the books. Not saying they were the only ones, but it looks to be an issue they would be championing.

 

[Rob0729]

Mara said at the superbowl he didn't expect the cap to rise at all... Sounds like he knew of what he spoke.

Cap could be lower than expected | ProFootballTalk

Just what teams who have been desperately trying to get cap room want to hear. Pittsburgh has got to love this.

 

[everlong]

Cousin, People forget Adalius Thamas actually had a decent first year and a half for us.Failures;

If you want to say Thomas, that is fair.
Haynesworth (very limited exposure)
Ochocinco who has done what he can but TB and BOB never trusted him so let's dump him and save the CAP. I am not buying playbook the whole season. Watch film, the kid was open. Not all his fault.
Doug Gabriel (what happened there? Looked unstoppable for a few games then....nyet)
Spings
O'Neal
DW Toys

You keep saying that about Thomas but nobody has forgotten Thomas was a stud for a year and a half. It's how quickly he fell off and what a cancer he became that we lament.

Add to your list of failures Starks and Burgess both of whom cost 3rd rounders. Greg Lewis and Smith the TE from Tampa who's first name escapes me who both costs 5th. Chad Brown, Monty Beisel, Charles Johnson......

The draft history is not as bad as this board makes it out to be and the FA signings while mostly good aren't this magic fix all that people seem to be dreaming up.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

I think people bemoan our drafting because BB has ignored a glaring issue for years. We've seen Brooks Reed, Jabaal Sheard, Carlos Dunlap, Connor Barwin, and, if you want to beat the dead horse, Clay Matthews get snubbed for 'value' or not being the right 'fit.' As we saw this year, the fit theory is relative, particularly when it comes to pass rushers. We grabbed two 4-3 DE vets off the heap who could get to the QB, and they did well for us, despite the fact that they didn't always have their hand in the dirt in our hybrid D.

Alex Smith was the TE btw.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Florio has a new list up that is supposedly up to date as of 2/28 but does not include any carryover from 2011 (which he links to the listing of as well). The numbers have changed in some cases dramatically (Steelers now just over $120M) so I assume it includes any cuts and restructures (since the JETS are now down to just over $120M too) teams have made and possibly the adjustments based on escalators and incentives since our number didn't drop significantly despite the cuts of Wright and Ohrnberger, it actually went up $800K.

Has us at $102.6M against the unknown ($120M or less) cap with $6.6M in carryover yet to be added to our adjusted cap. It is counting just the top 51 as will be the case until the regular season commences. That would put us at $112M when Welker is tagged. That would leave us with roughly $14M in cap space if the cap isn't much below $120 (and IF the $6.6 in carryover actually is fully available because escalators and incentives have already been factored in).

I do tend to think that the escalators and incentives are included in this list because KC's number has gone up $13M and the Raiders has increased by more than $5M from the earlier listing. I believe we should have dropped $2.4M or so after releasing Wright but we are up $800K so that would indicate players achieved $3M or so in escalators or playing time incentives over their previously anticipated 2012 base salaries.

2012 “top 51″ cap numbers, as of February 28 | ProFootballTalk

 

[jason423]

Florio has a new list up that is supposedly up to date as of 2/28 but does not include any carryover from 2011 (which he links to the listing of as well). The numbers have changed in some cases dramatically (Steelers now just over $120M) so I assume it includes any cuts and restructures (since the JETS are now down to just over $120M too) teams have made and possibly the adjustments based on escalators and incentives since our number didn't drop significantly despite the cuts of Wright and Ohrnberger, it actually went up $800K.

Has us at $102.6M against the unknown ($120M or less) cap with $6.6M in carryover yet to be added to our adjusted cap. It is counting just the top 51 as will be the case until the regular season commences. That would put us at $112M when Welker is tagged. That would leave us with roughly $14M in cap space if the cap isn't much below $120 (and IF the $6.6 in carryover actually is fully available because escalators and incentives have already been factored in).

I do tend to think that the escalators and incentives are included in this list because KC's number has gone up $13M and the Raiders has increased by more than $5M from the earlier listing. I believe we should have dropped $2.4M or so after releasing Wright but we are up $800K so that would indicate players achieved $3M or so in escalators or playing time incentives over their previously anticipated 2012 base salaries.

2012 “top 51″ cap numbers, as of February 28 | ProFootballTalk

As far as I know the league now includes all LTBE incentives in those figures. They likely do not count franchise tenders and they should not yet include the minimum salary or incentivized workout bonuses. Those are not much but they will probably change the figures for a few teams by 100-200K, which could be a big deal for teams around the cap.

 

[Joey007]

Cousin, People forget Adalius Thamas actually had a decent first year and a half for us. He made some super plays like the SD game. He was our best D player in the Super Bowl.
He stopped working and started talking like a locker room politician after that. Same disease that Randy Moss got. Dillion caught a bit of that to although he and Randy were trades not FA.

In all honesty BB is a better judge of FA players and trades than Draft Choices without question. His results in Drafts are documented as mid pack. I think he trades picks because he does not want to make that flawed high pick mistake like Chad Jackson. I think he has more fear Draft day. "I can trade the pick and not deal with it until next draft and the perfect player next year".

Take the best Pats players in the last ten years. You will find the minority were third rounders or higher versus the list of FA and trades that came in that have been ultra productive and stars.
Example:
Third Round and up Drafts (ten years and top three rounds)-
Top Tier-
Mankins
Wilfork
Mayo
Branch
Light
Gronk
Warren
Seymour

OK A KICKER....THERE... GOSTKOWSKI

Possible Top Tier-
Hernandez
Solder
Chung
Spikes
Volmer
McCourty

FA/TRADE TOP TIER

Moss
Welker
Vrabel
Harrison
Carter
Waters
Dillon
Pfifer
Izzo


You had a few FA/TRADES that were problems like Thomas and his maybe only one good year or limited results
Colvin-Injuries
Fauria
Bodden for one year then came injuries
Seau had some good games
Wiggins the first SB year
Antoine Smith had some decent games
Sammy Morris
Woodhead has been a great value

Failures;
If you want to say Thomas, that is fair.
Haynesworth (very limited exposure)
Ochocinco who has done what he can but TB and BOB never trusted him so let's dump him and save the CAP. I am not buying playbook the whole season. Watch film, the kid was open. Not all his fault.
Doug Gabriel (what happened there? Looked unstoppable for a few games then....nyet)
Spings
O'Neal

I won't name all the top three round Draft failures in the last ten years but you get my point. Way higher failure rate.

DW Toys

It's angered me in the past when we signed old, way-over-the-hill players like Springs,O'Neal Fred Taylor, Galloway, Seau (though he was decent at times) The only time we signed a vet around 34+ that worked out was Brian Waters this year, but otherwise we need to avoid signing guys over-the-hill in upcoming years if we want to stay successful. (Oh, and sorry this is a little off topic I was just making a point.)

 

[Deus Irae]

It's angered me in the past when we signed old, way-over-the-hill players like Springs,O'Neal Fred Taylor, Galloway, Seau (though he was decent at times) The only time we signed a vet around 34+ that worked out was Brian Waters this year, but otherwise we need to avoid signing guys over-the-hill in upcoming years if we want to stay successful. (Oh, and sorry this is a little off topic I was just making a point.)

Both Taylor and Seau could still play, so your point isn't really much of one.

 

[BaltimorePatsFan]

Both Taylor and Seau could still play, so your point isn't really much of one.

Agreed. Seau was awesome in 06 and pretty good in 07 as well. If he didn't get hurt in 06 Eric Alexander wouldn't have had to attempt to "cover" Dallas Clark in the AFCCG and maybe the Pats would have won that game.

Heck, just a couple of years ago Trevor Pryce even (insultingly) claimed that Seau was the best player on the Pats D.

He said what??? - Extra Points - Boston.com

 

[Ring 6]

It's angered me in the past when we signed old, way-over-the-hill players like Springs,O'Neal Fred Taylor, Galloway, Seau (though he was decent at times) The only time we signed a vet around 34+ that worked out was Brian Waters this year, but otherwise we need to avoid signing guys over-the-hill in upcoming years if we want to stay successful. (Oh, and sorry this is a little off topic I was just making a point.)

Aside from Galloway all of the guys you think were wasted pickups won starting jobs for at least part of the season.
You are also leaving out: Corey Dillon, Sammy Morris, Christian Fauria, Randy Moss, Roman Phifer, Ted Washington, Keith Traylor, Tyrone Poole, Terrell Buckley and Larry Centers as just some of the examples of older players that came in and played big roles.
I'm not sure what you expect out of signing veteran players for small money to compete for playing time. BBs track record is actually outstanding.

 

[bucky]

Aside from Galloway all of the guys you think were wasted pickups won starting jobs for at least part of the season.
You are also leaving out: Corey Dillon, Sammy Morris, Christian Fauria, Randy Moss, Roman Phifer, Ted Washington, Keith Traylor, Tyrone Poole, Terrell Buckley and Larry Centers as just some of the examples of older players that came in and played big roles.
I'm not sure what you expect out of signing veteran players for small money to compete for playing time. BBs track record is actually outstanding.

I'm not sure all of these qualify as "old", or "quality players". But certainly Seau, Roman Phifer was a huge addition, and he got here at 33. Ted Washington is another great one - he was 35. And how about Otis Smith - got here when he was 35. Anthony Pleasant was another huge signing - 33 when he got here.

 

[Wilfork#75]

So if the salary cap is $121 million for the 2012 NFL Season, the New England Patriots will have roughly $25.067 million to spend on free agency and the draft.

Numbers in million

$121.0 + $6.667 - $102.6 = $25.067

$5.000 2012 NFL Draft Picks
$9.400 Wes Welker Franchise Tag
$1.890 Deion Branch (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.890 Andre Carter (minimum player salary)
$0.790 Tracy White (minimum player salary)
$0.790 James Sanders (minimum player salary)
$0.665 Matt Slater (minimum player salary)
$1.665 Dan Connolly (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$1.790 Cory Redding (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.505 Kyle Love (minimum player salary - ERFA)

$23.385 subtotal

Thus only $1.682 million is left for injury reserve margin.

One thing to remember is that the current cap number for the Pats is for 51 players already under contract. So every player you sign/draft will be knocking one of those players off the bottom of the roster. While it may not seem significant because they are likely making the minimum, over the coarse of the 9 re-signings and multiple draft picks, it all adds up. The 9 signings you add here knock around $3.5mil off the bottom of the roster, virtually taking the subtotal for those signings under $20mil. Add in 6-8 rookies or UDFA's who then knock further bottom of the roster guys out, it probably makes the rookie impact $1-2mil instead of $5-6mil. So that could be an extra $7-8mil off the cap before any more significant cuts (Barrett? Cap saving of over $1mil if cut), and restructuring. Of course you also have to take into account the salaries for the final 2 roster spots, IR and mid season acquisitions, but there is still some room to move there.

 

[ATippett56]

One thing to remember is that the current cap number for the Pats is for 51 players already under contract. So every player you sign/draft will be knocking one of those players off the bottom of the roster. While it may not seem significant because they are likely making the minimum, over the coarse of the 9 re-signings and multiple draft picks, it all adds up. The 9 signings you add here knock around $3.5mil off the bottom of the roster, virtually taking the subtotal for those signings under $20mil. Add in 6-8 rookies or UDFA's who then knock further bottom of the roster guys out, it probably makes the rookie impact $1-2mil instead of $5-6mil. So that could be an extra $7-8mil off the cap before any more significant cuts (Barrett? Cap saving of over $1mil if cut), and restructuring. Of course you also have to take into account the salaries for the final 2 roster spots, IR and mid season acquisitions, but there is still some room to move there.

I utilized an erroneous chart to calculate the previous numbers.

If the salary cap is $121 million for the 2012 NFL Season, the New England Patriots will have roughly $25.067 million to spend on free agency and the 2012 NFL draft.

Numbers in million

$121.0 + $6.667 - $102.6 = $25.067

$5.000 2012 NFL Draft Picks
$9.400 Wes Welker Franchise Tag
$1.927 Brian Hoyer (second round tender - RFA)
$1.925 Deion Branch (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.925 Andre Carter (minimum player salary)
$1.825 Cory Redding (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.825 Tracy White (minimum player salary)
$0.825 James Sanders (minimum player salary)
$1.700 Dan Connolly (minimum player salary plus $1.000 million)
$0.700 Matt Slater (minimum player salary)
$0.540 Kyle Love (minimum player salary - ERFA)

$25.592 aforementioned subtotal

10 x $0.465 = $4.65 (10 player replacements - one year experience each)

$25.592 - $4.650 = $20.942 subtotal

2 x $0.390 = $0.780 (52nd & 53rd players - rookies)
8 x $0.0969 = $0.775 (8 practice squad players based upon 2011 figures)
$0.000 (injured reserve margin)

$20.942 + $0.780 + $0.775 = $22.497 theoretically spent versus $25.067 available

Please note that this not take into account whether the New England Patriots will re-sign unrestricted free agent running back BenJarvus Green Ellis.