2011 Draft Pick tracking

[Ochmed Jones]

Looking at both the Patriots and Raiders after 9 weeks, we may get to the point where the question may become...which 1st round pick will be better ...the Pats or Raiders. There is alot to like about Oakland. Dominant running game, strong front 4, 3 game winning streak. They do have a tough schedule ahead with only Denver as a gimme but the AFC West is winnable. It may come done to week 17 vs KC. If the Pats were to meet Oakland come playoff time, I'm not sure the Pats could match their beef in the trenches.

I have a lot of confidence is us vs. the Raiders, but it is a long way to the playoffs, one injury is all it takes for either team to be hurting bad.

 

[WelshPat]

Looking at both the Patriots and Raiders after 9 weeks, we may get to the point where the question may become...which 1st round pick will be better ...the Pats or Raiders. There is alot to like about Oakland. Dominant running game, strong front 4, 3 game winning streak. They do have a tough schedule ahead with only Denver as a gimme but the AFC West is winnable. It may come done to week 17 vs KC. If the Pats were to meet Oakland come playoff time, I'm not sure the Pats could match their beef in the trenches.

If Oakland had Tom Brady they would be one of the favorites to win it all.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Al Davis awakens.

 

[jmt57]

Unlike last week a lot of games went the Pats way yesterday.

Panthers and Vikings both lost, obviously a good thing.

Buffalo won to catch up to Carolina, and Dallas won, giving them one more win than the Panthers. SF won, putting them two games ahead of Carolina and tying them with Minnesota at 3-6. Seattle, Miami and Jacksonville all won to catch up to Oakland at 5-4. Hopefully Washington can win tonight to go to 5-4 also.


Here's the latest draft order after the win at Pittsburgh:

1st Round from Oakland (5-4): #15 - #20 (#18 last week)
1st Round New England (7-2): #30 - #32 (#28 - #32 last week)
2nd Round from Carolina (1-8): #33 - #34 (#34 - #35 last week)
2nd Round New England (7-2): #62 - #64
3rd Round from Minnesota (3-6): #70 - #74 (#72 - #74 last week)
3rd Round New England (7-2): #94 - #96
4th Round New England (7-2): #126 - #128 or later depending on compensatory picks


Next week:
Pats vs Colts
Raiders at Steelers
Ravens at Panthers
Packers at Vikings

 

[jmt57]

Another good week for 2011 draft picks

• Raiders lost 35-3
• Panthers lost 37-13
• Vikings lost 31-3

And to top that all off, in case you missed it the Pats beat Indy.



Here's the latest draft order after the win over the Colts:

1st Round from Oakland (5-5): #13 - #18 (#15 - #20 last week)
1st Round New England (8-2): #30 - #32 (#30 - #32 last week)
2nd Round from Carolina (1-9): #33 (#33 - #34 last week)
2nd Round New England (8-2): #62 - #64
3rd Round from Minnesota (3-7): #69 - #74 (#70 - #74 last week)
3rd Round New England (8-2): #94 - #96
4th Round New England (8-2): #126 - #128 or later depending on compensatory picks

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Another good week for 2011 draft picks

• Raiders lost 35-3
• Panthers lost 37-13
• Vikings lost 31-3

And to top that all off, in case you missed it the Pats beat Indy.



Here's the latest draft order after the win over the Colts:

1st Round from Oakland (5-5): #13 - #18 (#15 - #20 last week)
1st Round New England (8-2): #30 - #32 (#30 - #32 last week)
2nd Round from Carolina (1-9): #33 (#33 - #34 last week)
2nd Round New England (8-2): #62 - #64
3rd Round from Minnesota (3-7): #69 - #74 (#70 - #74 last week)
3rd Round New England (8-2): #94 - #96
4th Round New England (8-2): #126 - #128 or later depending on compensatory picks

In the 4th round we have our pick and the Broncos pick via Maroney
trade.

We traded the (2nd pick in the 4th round) to Seattle for Branch.
Seattle will be getting the Patriots 4th round pick and we still have the Broncos pick and they are 3-7.

 

[jmt57]

The primary week 12 games of draft interest to Pats fans:
5-5 Oakland vs 5-5 Miami
1-9 Carolina at 3-7 Cleveland
3-7 Minnesota at 5-5 Washington


And some other teams with records of interest to the draft:
2-8 Bengals at 8-2 Jets
2-8 Bills vs 7-3 Steelers
3-7 Browns vs 1-9 Panthers
3-7 49ers at 3-7 Cardinals
4-6 Rams at 3-7 Broncos
4-6 Texans vs 5-5 Titans
5-5 Seahawks vs 6-4 Chiefs
5-5 Chargers at 6-4 Colts
6-4 Jaguars at 6-4 Giants



So in other words every NFL game with the exception of Tampa Bay at Baltimore, Philadelphia at Chicago and Green Bay at Atlanta will affect next week's draft pick tracking.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

In the 4th round we have our pick and the Broncos pick via Maroney
trade.

We traded the (2nd pick in the 4th round) to Seattle for Branch.
Seattle will be getting the Patriots 4th round pick and we still have the Broncos pick and they are 3-7.

Nope. Per Reiss, the Pats traded whichever pick is earlier to Seattle.

 

[jmt57]

In the 4th round we have our pick and the Broncos pick via Maroney
trade.

We traded the (2nd pick in the 4th round) to Seattle for Branch.
Seattle will be getting the Patriots 4th round pick and we still have the Broncos pick and they are 3-7.

From what I have read - unless I missed something - Seattle gets the better of those two fourth round picks.

NFL.com - Seahawks ship Branch back to Patriots for fourth round pick

The Patriots have two picks in the fourth round -- its own and the Denver Broncos' from the Laurence Maroney trade -- and the Seahawks will receive the higher of the two, a league source told NFL Network insider Jason La Canfora.

 

[jmt57]

Week 12 results.
Teams listed first in the top group, we wanted them to lose.
Teams listed first in the 2nd group, we wanted them to win.
Teams with a ?, it's a tough call who we wanted to win.
Teams with a √, we got the outcome we were looking for.
Teams with an X, we did not get the result we wanted.


The primary week 12 games of draft interest to Pats fans:
√ -- 5-5 Oakland vs 5-5 Miami --- Raiders lose, 33-17
√ -- 1-9 Carolina at 3-7 Cleveland --- Panthers lose, 24-23
X -- 3-7 Minnesota at 5-5 Washington --- Vikings win, 17-13


And some other teams with records of interest to the draft:
√ -- 3-7 Browns vs 1-9 Panthers --- Browns win, 24-23
√ -- 5-5 Chargers at 6-4 Colts --- Chargers win, 36-14
√ -- 4-6 Texans vs 5-5 Titans --- Texans win, 20-0
? -- 5-5 Seahawks vs 6-4 Chiefs --- Chiefs win, 42-24
? -- 3-7 49ers at 3-7 Cardinals --- MNF
? -- 4-6 Rams at 3-7 Broncos --- Rams win, 36-33
X -- 2-8 Bengals at 8-2 Jets --- Bengals lose, 26-10
X -- 2-8 Bills vs 7-3 Steelers --- Bills lose, 19-16
X -- 6-4 Jaguars at 6-4 Giants --- Jags lose, 24-20



I know putting a check mark next to the Chargers winning may not look right, but this is strictly in regards to draft pick tracking. Pats need somebody in the AFC West to keep Oakland out of the playoffs.

The Chiefs winning was good for their record in comparison to Oakland's, but on the other hand Seattle losing may not be good for their overall record by the time the season is finished.

Rams winning ties them with Oakland's record at 5-6, but the Broncos loss puts them one game behind Minnesota in the standings.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I know putting a check mark next to the Chargers winning may not look right, but this is strictly in regards to draft pick tracking. Pats need somebody in the AFC West to keep Oakland out of the playoffs.

The Pats have somebody in the AFC West to keep Oakland out of the playoffs - Oakland. I'd much rather have San Diego finish out of the running than Oakland, especially as KC looks to be capable of staying ahead of the Faiders.

 

[D-Money]

Is there anyway we can break into the top 10?Right now we are at the 12th.I can actually see the 49ers, the broncos, vikings, and the cowboys start to win some games.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Is there anyway we can break into the top 10?Right now we are at the 12th.I can actually see the 49ers, the broncos, vikings, and the cowboys start to win some games.

It's Oakland, have a little faith.

 

[jsull87]

It's Oakland, have a little faith.

I'm holding out for a 1-4 or 0-5 Finnish... giving an opportunity for some of the other 5-6 and 4-7 teams to sneak on by them in the win column

 

[jmt57]

Is there anyway we can break into the top 10?Right now we are at the 12th.I can actually see the 49ers, the broncos, vikings, and the cowboys start to win some games.

Sure is, even when I take my homer glasses off.

First, consider this: the Raiders are 5-6. That's just one game better than a 4-7 record. As of this moment 4-7 would be the #8, #9, or #10 pick.

Second, let's look at Oakland's remaining schedule:
at 6-5 San Diego
at 6-5 Jacksonville
vs 3-8 Denver
vs 6-5 Indianapolis
at 7-4 Kansas City

Looking at that schedule Oakland's expected victory total is one, which would give them a 6-10 record.

Third, QB Bruce Gradkowski is injured and will not be able to start next week. That means the Raiders will start Jason Campbell, who has been benched multiple times this season. Aside from the drop in effectiveness, how will the rest of the team react? There's got to be a drop in confidence when the team is forced to start a guy who was benched.

Lastly, let's look at last year's draft and see where teams drafted and their records:
5-11 - 6th, 7th and 8th
6-10 - 9th
7-9 - 10th, 11th, 12th


Bottom line is that there is a very good chance the Oakland pick does end up in the top ten after all, even though it didn't look that way a week or two ago.

 

[mrscruff]

The running game is essential for the Raiders if they are going to chalk up any wins.
Darren McFadden played well in their victories but was injured a couple of games ago and the Raiders' staff feel he is not running as hard anymore.

Also key injuries are also beginning to mount. TE Zach Miller is suffering from injury and that will not help their passing attack.

Also Nnamdi Asamougha is not fully fit with an ankle injury for which he is due to have an MRI scan.

That's three key players (plus Gradkowski) who could have a major impact on the fortunes of the Patriots pick.

 

[Metaphors]

Sure is, even when I take my homer glasses off.

First, consider this: the Raiders are 5-6. That's just one game better than a 4-7 record. As of this moment 4-7 would be the #8, #9, or #10 pick.

Second, let's look at Oakland's remaining schedule:
at 6-5 San Diego
at 6-5 Jacksonville
vs 3-8 Denver
vs 6-5 Indianapolis
at 7-4 Kansas City

Looking at that schedule Oakland's expected victory total is one, which would give them a 6-10 record.

Third, QB Bruce Gradkowski is injured and will not be able to start next week. That means the Raiders will start Jason Campbell, who has been benched multiple times this season. Aside from the drop in effectiveness, how will the rest of the team react? There's got to be a drop in confidence when the team is forced to start a guy who was benched.

Lastly, let's look at last year's draft and see where teams drafted and their records:
5-11 - 6th, 7th and 8th
6-10 - 9th
7-9 - 10th, 11th, 12th


Bottom line is that there is a very good chance the Oakland pick does end up in the top ten after all, even though it didn't look that way a week or two ago.

All good points. Their remaining schedule is not only difficult, but is stacked against them with 3 divisional revenge games, an east coast 1pm game and 4 games with teams that legitimately could consider the game a must win for the playoffs. Even the winnable game against Denver is tricky. You don't think the Broncos are looking forward to taking out their frustrations on the team that dumped 59 on them in front of the Denver faithful?

The only fly in the ointment would be if SD trips up and is 2 games behind KC that final weekend. Facing a playoff game against the Jets the following week, KC would likely rest key players against the Raiders. I don't think that is likely. More likely would be SD and KC within one game of each other...and the KC game is early so they won't know the outcome of the later SD game.

Looking at the other teams and their schedules, that should put the Raiders pick somewhere between #6 and #9...just like the range last year as you showed.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

All good points. Their remaining schedule is not only difficult, but is stacked against them with 3 divisional revenge games, an east coast 1pm game and 4 games with teams that legitimately could consider the game a must win for the playoffs. Even the winnable game against Denver is tricky. You don't think the Broncos are looking forward to taking out their frustrations on the team that dumped 59 on them in front of the Denver faithful?

The only fly in the ointment would be if SD trips up and is 2 games behind KC that final weekend. Facing a playoff game against the Jets the following week, KC would likely rest key players against the Raiders. I don't think that is likely. More likely would be SD and KC within one game of each other...and the KC game is early so they won't know the outcome of the later SD game.

Looking at the other teams and their schedules, that should put the Raiders pick somewhere between #6 and #9...just like the range last year as you showed.

If there is one thing about the NFL it is expect the unexpected. Anything can happen over the next five weeks and unless Al forgets to take his Prozac and starts messing with the team and/or coaches, I would not be surprised to see the Raiders go 8 and 8 or 5 and 11.

 

[sg14]

The Pats have somebody in the AFC West to keep Oakland out of the playoffs - Oakland. I'd much rather have San Diego finish out of the running than Oakland, especially as KC looks to be capable of staying ahead of the Faiders.

I am assuming that you want the Bolts out of the play-offs because they look like a team that could go pretty far in the post season??

Boy, a couple of weeks ago Oakland looked like they could be for real, looks like I was fooled by their overwhelming wins against the likes of Denver and Seattle.

What weird year, how can Denver destroy Kansas City??

KC just destroyed Seattle, so guess that means "nothing"???

I can actually like KC, with all the ex-Pats connections.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Another analysis of the Oakland pick position: These teams very unlikely to get to 6 wins (if Raiders go 1-4 down the stretch) and probably these teams not even getting to 5 wins (if Oakland goes 0-5):

1 Carolina 1-10 .580

2 Detroit 2-9 .557
3 Cincinnati 2-9 .585
4 Buffalo 2-9 .591
5 Arizona 3-8 .460
6 Denver 3-8 .523

So that looks like at the very least 6 teams picking ahead of NEP (Oaklands pick).

Next level of calculations are which teams (most currently within one game) who can tie Raiders wins OR fall behind if they tank worse than Raiders:

7 Dallas 3-8 .523
8 San Francisco 4-7 .489
9 Minnesota 4-7 .528
10 Cleveland 4-7 .568
11 Seattle 5-6 .483
12 New England (from Oakland) 5-6 .483
13 Washington 5-6 .506
14 Tennessee 5-6 .517
15 Houston 5-6 .534

8 teams with same record or within one game (exception Dallas which also has ok chance to leapfrog Raiders).

If you take a 50% likelyhood of half those teams NOT surpassing Raiders record (or tying wins and winning higher pick by virtue of weaker SOS), then you get 4 teams picking ahead.

So 6 teams + 4 teams = 10 teams picking ahead giving NEP the 11th pick. just by doing some simple math analysis.

Yes, of the 2nd tier teams (7-15) , the Raiders do have one of the hardest schedules, but my analysis didnt even look at the 3 teams one win ahead of Raiders at 6-5 and is possibility Raiders could win one of last 5 games especially the one at home vs. Denver. So unfortunately, I don't see a top 10 pick . Hope I am wrong.