2009 Preview - Where's the talent?

[Ochmed Jones]

2009 Team Needs

ILB - Starter - Or atleast someone to split snaps with Bruschi and eventually replace him. ILB is a must in the first round unless there's a really good can't-miss prospect that slips to us.

SS - Starter/Depth - Is James Sanders really the future when Rodney retires? I don't think so. I'm not a fan of Sanders as he lets up some big plays and misses quite a few tackles. I hope we draft his replacement in the 2nd round.

CB - Depth - Hobbs and ONeal look good so far. Wheatley will eventually become a starter. Wilhite looks like a decent depth/ST player. Still, a CB in the 2nd/3rd or 4th(at latest) is a must. Unless ofcourse we find something in Free Agency or make a big trade. More likely scenerio though, we draft one.


Other than that, there aren't any needs. WR could use some youth. Though after the Chad Jackson BUST, I doubt we use a high pick on WR again. Our Offense is set right now. WR's are solid, QB is the best in the game, OLine is one of the best in the league, RB's are all good. The Defense is the main area of focus. I think we go Defense with our first 3 picks to fill those needs, then draft a WR and Guard in the later rounds.

I still think our #1 most burning need is a pass rushing OLB demon that can get help get this defense off the field on third and long. Even KC converted 50% of their third downs against our defense.

 

[dryheat44]

I still think our #1 most burning need is a pass rushing OLB demon that can get help get this defense off the field on third and long. Even KC converted 50% of their third downs against our defense.

Well, right now we have Vrabel and Adalius, who can still bring it, and young players like Woods and Crable, who may or may not be able to fill that role. With BB spending a 3 on Crable last year, I would hope he's that guy, although I've pushed hard for Spencer and Groves in the last two drafts, so I know where you're coming from.

I think our bigger needs are all-around TE and a safety who can preferably play both positions. I really like Will Moore out of Mizzou. As for TEs, I like Beckum in the passing game...he strikes me as a Dave Thomas type. But I think BB might want more of an athletic freak who can also block. Maybe Pettigrew is that guy, or the guy from BC (Pervis?) but I want to take a look at Bear Pascoe at Fresno.

And I would love to find a way to get Darrius Hayward-Bey to Foxboro.

 

[cstjohn17]

Well, right now we have Vrabel and Adalius, who can still bring it, and young players like Woods and Crable, who may or may not be able to fill that role. With BB spending a 3 on Crable last year, I would hope he's that guy, although I've pushed hard for Spencer and Groves in the last two drafts, so I know where you're coming from.

I think our bigger needs are all-around TE and a safety who can preferably play both positions. I really like Will Moore out of Mizzou. As for TEs, I like Beckum in the passing game...he strikes me as a Dave Thomas type. But I think BB might want more of an athletic freak who can also block. Maybe Pettigrew is that guy, or the guy from BC (Pervis?) but I want to take a look at Bear Pascoe at Fresno.

And I would love to find a way to get Darrius Hayward-Bey to Foxboro.

Here is a good list from the National Football Post, early top 100.
The National Football Post | Top 100 Prospects

Almost all the units could use an impact player or more youth. But I agree Safety is a big need along with TE (I am fine with rounds 2nd - 4th round, please not another first round TE). O Line is a concern going forward and even D Line, Seymour and Wilfork are free agents after 2009. One of them will likely be locked up, the other will have to be replaced.

Players I will try to watch (it is damn hard to scout Safeties on tv, most plays you can't even see them on the screen).

William Moore, S, Missouri
Taylor Mays *, S, USC
Myron Rolle *, S, Florida State
Nic Harris, S, Oklahoma
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

 

[KillEM]

It would be a shame if we used ANOTHER 1st round pick on a TE.

BB and Pioli are genius when it comes to drafting OLine, DLine, CB's

When it comes to "skill" players... not so much. Look at Chad Jackson, Bethel Johnson, even Maroney is somewhat of a bust considering where we picked him. He's more of a #2 change of pace back. Not what you expect from a 1st round RB. Plus we already used two 1st rounders on Graham and Watson at Tight End.

Time to go with Defense. Don't forget in the past few years we've lost a ton of good players on defense; Willie McGinest, Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Asante Samuel, Ted Johson, Roman Phifer, Rosevelt Colvin, Junior Seau... and soon Bruschi and Rodney Harrison.

Meriweather, Mayo, Wheatley, and Crable are a good start to rebuilding, but we need more.



As for OLB - Vrabel may be slowing down a bit, but he was still a Pro Bowler last year. So was Adalius Thomas. So with two Pro Bowl OLB's and a young 3rd rounder (Crable) who is looking pretty good, it's doubtful that we draft another OLB unless someone really good slips to us. Like I said before tho, Cushing would be ideal because he could play ILB for the time being and then take over OLB when Vrabel (who's getting up there in age) retires.

Alot of if will depend on how the rookies fare this year. Crable looked good in pre-season. And UDFA Gary Guyton has already passed Eric Alexander on the depth chart and is taking some snaps when Bruschi's off the field.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

As for OLB - Vrabel may be slowing down a bit, but he was still a Pro Bowler last year. So was Adalius Thomas. So with two Pro Bowl OLB's and a young 3rd rounder (Crable) who is looking pretty good, it's doubtful that we draft another OLB unless someone really good slips to us. Like I said before tho, Cushing would be ideal because he could play ILB for the time being and then take over OLB when Vrabel (who's getting up there in age) retires.

Alot of if will depend on how the rookies fare this year. Crable looked good in pre-season. And UDFA Gary Guyton has already passed Eric Alexander on the depth chart and is taking some snaps when Bruschi's off the field.

If we learned anything from last year, it is that Vrabel will wear down and by week 16, playing on guts and fumes. As for Thomas, who really knows how he will handle a full year at OLB in this defense.
One thing we do know for sure is that Crable's lack of ST ability is keeping off the 45 man roster, at least compared to Woods. Add that with Crable's inability to seal the edge because of his lack of sand in the pants, and Crable could wind up as one of a long list of BB 3rd round flops.

The bottom line is that the 2008 Patriot defense can NOT get off the field on third down against two very weak clubs thus far. Denver, Indy, and San Diego are coming up quick on the schedule, does anybody feel confident that we have the pass rushing threat that can strike fear in the hearts of these opposing QB's? I don't.

Geat safeties and TE's can be found in the later rounds. Great Pass rushers are like free Red Sox tickets, they are extremely hard to find; and when you do find them; they go quick as a blink.

 

[cstjohn17]

If we learned anything from last year, it is that Vrabel will wear down and by week 16, playing on guts and fumes. As for Thomas, who really knows how he will handle a full year at OLB in this defense.
One thing we do know for sure is that Crable's lack of ST ability is keeping off the 45 man roster, at least compared to Woods. Add that with Crable's inability to seal the edge because of his lack of sand in the pants, and Crable could wind up as one of a long list of BB 3rd round flops.

The bottom line is that the 2008 Patriot defense can NOT get off the field on third down against two very weak clubs thus far. Denver, Indy, and San Diego are coming up quick on the schedule, does anybody feel confident that we have the pass rushing threat that can strike fear in the hearts of these opposing QB's? I don't.

Geat safeties and TE's can be found in the later rounds. Great Pass rushers are like free Red Sox tickets, they are extremely hard to find; and when you do find them; they go quick as a blink.

A lot to swallow in this post, I agree about TEs and Safeties. But everyone knows pass rushers are high value players. They are also damn hard to find in the draft, especially if the team is consistently picking around #30.

Woods is a three year veteran, Crable is a raw rookie of course Woods is getting the nod because of special teams. Woods is excellent on ST, and as fans we undervalue its importance. Slater, Woods, Alexander, Eckel, Izzo, Aiken, Washington, Ventrone are all on the team primarily for special teams. Over 15% of the roster, that doesn't even include specialists.

I really see any of these positions as being a possibility in the first round (S, OT, ILB, OG, OLB, DL, CB, TE, RB) <-- listed in order of need IMO

 

[KillEM]

A lot of great OLB pass rushers go after rd 1 too...

LaMarr Woodley - 2nd round

James Harrison - Undrafted

Joey Porter - 3rd round

Justin Tuck - 3rd round

Shaun Phillips - 4th round

Osi Umenyiora - 2nd round

Jason Taylor - 3rd round




So there you have it. Why pick an OLB in round 1? Who's he going to start ahead of... Vrabel or Thomas? The answer is Neither.

and I'm confident Crable will turn out just fine. Belichick doesnt have too many early round busts on defensive players.

 

[rookBoston]

The last time the college game produced a weak draft class, we ended up with Wes Welker and Randy Moss. More of that, please.

 

[PonyExpress]

Haven't dug into this draft yet. Mayo wasn't even on the 1st radar at this time last season.

There seems like some good talent, from Maualuga to Oher to Wells. Selvie is interesting.

I've been watching Laurinitis for years and have yet to see the 1st rd talent. Poz post injury looked better.

 

[BelizePats]

As to the 2009 draft, I would be so happy to see our first, two seconds and one of the thirds, all be spent on the D. This will serve us very well 2010-13.

I would love to see us draft ILB Ray M out of USC. How we get him though is another story, given we will be drafting 25 on. The thought of him and Mayo plugging the middle of our D for the next 10 years is a nice one!
Rodney needs to be replaced, no doubt about it!
I wish I had time to follow the college game more. I rely on the excellent draftniks on this site for a lot of the info I get on college players.
My positional draft board for 2009

1) ILB
2) SS
2a) OLB
3) CB

 

[BritPat]

Watched a fair amount of the Gators @ Vols game tonight - Spikes is a player. If we can't get Rey, and I doubt we'll even have a chance of a sniff, I would jump through hoops if we took him. He and Mayo could be dominant.

 

[KillEM]

You have to take into consideration the teams that will be picking in the Top 10...

Bengals, Dolphins, Chiefs, Rams, 49ers, Ravens (maybe), Seahawks (maybe), Jets, Lions, Raiders, Falcons...

-Bengals are most likely to take him. Though they need help along their OLine and Dlines badly... and there's a lot of OT and Dlinemen in this draft projected to rd1.
-Dolphins need everything... will probably get George Selvie.
-Jets and Lions would be looking his way too. But they Jets should take a RB like Beanie Wells. And the Lions already drafted a few LB's pretty high recently (Ernie Sims, Dizon, someone else I forgot his name). Lions could also use a young QB, CB, OT
-Imagine 49ers with Patrick Willis and Rey Maualuga? Scary. A WR is more important to them though. Same with QB after that BUST Alex Smith.
-Rams need Defense. Possible that they draft Maualuga...

It all matters on what else is on the board, cause those teams have bigger needs than ILB. With that said, Rey Maualuga is one of the most hyped LB's coming into the draft in a loooong time and teams could take him based off being the best player available.

I think Rey Rey gets taken in the 7-14 range... only way we get him is if we trade up. Which is very possible. If he slips to the 11-14 range I'd love to trade up to get him. We could use our 1st and 3rd to move up. I think Pats fans more than anyone else want Maualuga for two reasons: 1)we thought we'd be able to pick him with last years 7th overall but he didn't declare, 2) ILB is our only major need and Maualuga is a perfect fit for a 3-4

Kind of pointless to talk about now... as someone said earlier, Jerod Mayo wasnt on anyones radar at this time last year and ended up as a Top 10 pick. Everything will become much more clear after the Senior Bowl and Combine.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

2008 contracts
RB Evans, Jorden
OL Hochstein, Connelly, Britt, Levoir
S J. Sanders, Harrison, Williams
CB L. Sanders, O'Neal
QB Cassel, Gutierrez
WR Gaffney, Ventrone
P Hanson
LS Paxton
DL K. Smith, S. Thomas, Wright
LB Alexander, Izzo, Woods
bold are my best guess at ERFA/RFA

2009 contracts
OL Mankins, Kaczur, Neal, Yates, O'Callaghan
TE Watson, D. Thomas
DL Seymour, Wilfork, Green, L. Smith
LB Bruschi, Vrabel, Guyton
CB Hobbs
RB Faulk
WR Aiken
K Gostkowski
ERFA/RFA rules change for 2010's uncapped year, so I'm not guessing at this point.

Looking at these two lists, my first crack at a 2008 shopping list:

Rounds 1-3: OG/OT, TE, DL

I'm looking for a replacement for Neal, this can be someone who moves Kaczur inside or a direct replacement at RG.
Loss of blocking at the TE position is affecting the run game, I know many here consider the first round TEs a waste, but Graham's departure and the slow down when Watson is injured is argument enough to consider TE early.
Sey and Wilfork and Green and Wright coming up in the next two years makes this a value pick.

Rounds 4-7: OLB, ILB, S, CB, FB, QB, P

OLB depth is an ongoing need.
Guyton was a lucky signing at UDFA, but more depth at ILB is needed.
BB kept Spann and Dillard and Ventrone, so he's keeping some depth tucked away to develop. Harrison may re-sign if he doesn't wear down too much this season. Shopping for another S in the draft makes some sense, even if J. Sanders extends.
Wheatley and Wilhite and Richardson create a nice pool of youth, but another young player to develop at CB won't go amiss with Hobbs contract up after 2009.
Evans will probably re-sign, but until he does, a stronger blocker than Eckel should be considered.
Cassel is most likely gone after this year. Gutierrez may bounce back, but even if he does, competition is needed.
Hanson is struggling with directional kicking, and even though he's showing a strong leg so far, he's likely to be replaced or at least challenged.

The uncapped 2010 season is going to make drafting strategy very challenging for the next couple seasons. There are 7 essential players coming due at the end of 2009 - Seymour, Wilfork, Mankins, Watson, Kaczur, Jarvis, and Neal. One can hope they will all want to stay, but the first three are going to be targeted early by poachers. Their agents will probably encourage them to wait until after 2009 before negotiating new contracts.

 

[KillEM]

RT's and Guards are generally not first round picks.

Since we already used a 1st rounder on a Guard just a few years ago, it would be ridiculous to do it again. Especially with the aging Defense.

Guyton isnt a long term solution at ILB. He's more of a STer/back up. Sanders replacing Harrison would weaken the secondary a lot.

TE are dime a dozen. In the past few years we've taken two in the 1st round, and one in the 3rd round. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE NO MORE TIGHT ENDS on day one!!

 

[BritPat]

RT's and Guards are generally not first round picks.

Since we already used a 1st rounder on a Guard just a few years ago, it would be ridiculous to do it again. Especially with the aging Defense.

Guyton isnt a long term solution at ILB. He's more of a STer/back up. Sanders replacing Harrison would weaken the secondary a lot.

TE are dime a dozen. In the past few years we've taken two in the 1st round, and one in the 3rd round. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE NO MORE TIGHT ENDS on day one!!

Jeff Otah has been sensational so far for the Panthers, Gosder Cherilus has been moved back to the right (where he looked better against the Packers), and Branden Albert was the most hyped of all OL's coming out of college (although he is now at LT). Looking at next year, there are a few OL's who will go first round - could we draft a new LT and move Light to the right with Kazcur moving in one?

Agree about TE's by the way, unless they are the next coming of Kellen Winslow or Tony Gonzalez, I'm happy to see them drafted lower. We need a blocking TE.

 

[BritPat]

Don't agree about Guyton however, he was slated as a third rounder in a couple of mocks I saw. He has a lot of talent and potential, and could be an absolute steal.

 

[PonyExpress]

Looking at these two lists, my first crack at a 2008 shopping list:

Rounds 1-3: OG/OT, TE, DL

I'm looking for a replacement for Neal, this can be someone who moves Kaczur inside or a direct replacement at RG.
Loss of blocking at the TE position is affecting the run game, I know many here consider the first round TEs a waste, but Graham's departure and the slow down when Watson is injured is argument enough to consider TE early.
Sey and Wilfork and Green and Wright coming up in the next two years makes this a value pick.
.

I agree with this assessment of our 1st day needs. OT, DL, TE, the same pattern BB cycled through 2000-2002.

Tyson Jackson is one of my favorites, hopefully he has a sub-par year and sneaks into the Pats' range.

 

[patchick]

Since we already used a 1st rounder on a Guard just a few years ago, it would be ridiculous to do it again. Especially with the aging Defense.

I don't think the perception of the "aging defense" really meets reality any more. If you projected next year's starting lineup from this year's roster, you'd get something like the following. (I've tried to plug in obvious replacements for players who are FAs at the end of this year; when there's nobody obvious on the roster, I've left question marks.)

OFFENSE
Brady
Maroney
Watson
Light
Mankins
Koppen
Neal
Kaczur
Moss
Welker
??

DEFENSE
Seymour
Wilfork
Warren
A. Thomas
Bruschi
Mayo
Vrabel
Meriweather
??
Hobbs
Wheatley

At this time next year 6 of those offensive starters will be over 30, but only 3 of the defensive starters. Stephen Neal turns 33 next year and has battled through a lot of injuries. I wouldn't be thrilled with a RG in the 1st round either, but it's a clear position of need.

 

[cstjohn17]

I don't think the perception of the "aging defense" really meets reality any more. If you projected next year's starting lineup from this year's roster, you'd get something like the following. (I've tried to plug in obvious replacements for players who are FAs at the end of this year; when there's nobody obvious on the roster, I've left question marks.)

OFFENSE
Brady
Maroney
Watson
Light
Mankins
Koppen
Neal
Kaczur
Moss
Welker
??

DEFENSE
Seymour
Wilfork
Warren
A. Thomas
Bruschi
Mayo
Vrabel
Meriweather
??
Hobbs
Wheatley

At this time next year 6 of those offensive starters will be over 30, but only 3 of the defensive starters. Stephen Neal turns 33 next year and has battled through a lot of injuries. I wouldn't be thrilled with a RG in the 1st round either, but it's a clear position of need.

I think the age cliches are related to the overall speed of the unit, $100 to the first person who can cover a TE. Personally I think BB & SP have lost their fastball, 2005 was the last time they were decent. That year they drafted a OG, I would take a pick like Mankins, especially since he is a free agent after 2009.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

RT's and Guards are generally not first round picks.

Since we already used a 1st rounder on a Guard just a few years ago, it would be ridiculous to do it again. Especially with the aging Defense.

Guyton isnt a long term solution at ILB. He's more of a STer/back up. Sanders replacing Harrison would weaken the secondary a lot.

TE are dime a dozen. In the past few years we've taken two in the 1st round, and one in the 3rd round. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE NO MORE TIGHT ENDS on day one!!

At this point in the college season, identifying a (hopefully) late 1st round prospect isn't reasonable. Identifying positions to shop for based on current team strengths is applicable.

OL is a "need" based on Neal's age, injury history, and contract status. How that "need" is filled is yet to be determined. It may be there is a better value at another position, but for now greatest "need" is on the right side of the OL.

Today's fish flop argues that TE is a position of need. I want a dominant blocker, but I insist he be at least as athletic as Grahambo with better than average hands. Not too many of those getting out of round one.

I'll echo Pony and say I'd love to see Tyson Jackson on the board when the Pats go on the clock.

Guyton is such a STs/backup ILB that he was signed as a UDFA and slid all the way down to #3 ILB - causing Pioli to muse on how they should have drafted him and got really lucky no one else did. It would be nice to find another Mayo in the draft, but I think you're arguing in advance of facts to brand Guyton a career backup.

Sanders and Harrison start, if Harrison is gone who replaces him? (Meriweather)