2009 Predictions: who makes the playoffs, who does not?

[stinkypete]

Definitely in:

New England - On paper, the most complete team in the AFC
Pittsburgh - OL still sucks but the D is a monster and the run game should vastly improve
Tennessee - Still a top 5 defense without Haynesworth and a killer RB/OL
San Diego - Should go unchallenged in the AFC west
Philly - On paper this roster team is absolutely stacked. Look at that OL

That's all I can confidently say right now. All the other teams either have major question marks at significant positions (QB, OL, defense, coaching changes) or play in divisions that are too tight (NFC north/NFC south).

Teams I think will make the playoffs:

Baltimore - defense, running game too solid, improved OL and QB play
Indy - history tells me to call this one every year until they miss
NY Giants - defense is too good and I think Nicks will be an instant contributer
Minnesota - Favre/Harvin will add just enough playmaking spark
New Orleans - Pass defense much improved with Greer/Jankins + Tracy Porter returning
Arizona - By default, the only team in their division without glaring weaknesses

As for the 6th NFC representative, it's a roll of the dice between Green Bay, Chicago, Carolina, Atlanta and Dallas. I could name 5 reasons why each team will and won't make it, but my gut tells me no.

For my sleepers, I'd look at Cincy, KC and San Francisco for various reasons.

Teams who have no chance:

Buffalo - They've added alot of bluster but I see no Oline and no pass defense
Cleveland - Looks like a train wreck
Jacksonville - Got bigger in the trenches but lacks playmakers on both sides of the ball
Denver - Totally ill suited personnel to run a 3-4
(Edit) Oakland - How can I forget the Raiders
Washington - Also looks like a train wreck with player/coach issues
Detroit - 5 wins will feel like a super bowl
Tampa - The only thing they seem preparing for is an uncapped year
St. Louis - Godawful team, top to bottom
Seattle - The Oline is crumbling, there is no run game and no pass defense

 

[BradyFTW!]

Will make it:

Pats
Steelers
Chargers
Colts
Giants
Eagles

Won't:
Bengals
Browns
Raiders
Lions
Bills
Broncos
Bucs
Rams
Seahawks
Cowboys

 

[Deus Irae]

...
Won't:
Bengals
...

Intersting. I have a question, if you don't mind: does this mean that you aren't buying the "The Bengals look much better now" stories, or does it mean that you don't think it's going to be enough?

 

[BradyFTW!]

Intersting. I have a question, if you don't mind: does this mean that you aren't buying the "The Bengals look much better now" stories, or does it mean that you don't think it's going to be enough?

The first one, and if I'm wrong about that, then still the second one. Playing in a division with the Steelers and Ravens doesn't leave much margin for error.

 

[Deus Irae]

The first one, and if I'm wrong about that, then still the second one. Playing in a division with the Steelers and Ravens doesn't leave much margin for error.

Got it. Thanks for the reply.

 

[Mike the Brit]

I actually had both the Bills and Jets on my list and just before hitting submit replaced them with the 49ers and Jags. Giants probably deserve a spot somewhere on the list even though the NFC East is very competitive. The Falcons I was hesitant to put on there because the NFC South seems to always have a different division winner every year, and there doesn't seem to be a lot of separation between the Falcons, Panthers and Saints.

So we're very, very close.

If I'm right to be as confident in the Pats as I am, then it's going to be very hard for the Bills and Jets to get wildcard spots, given that Miami isn't going to implode.

The remaining question is: which of the three divisions is least uncertain in the NFC -- North, South or West. I agree that the South is hard to pick, but I have sneaking feelings that neither the West (truly terrible division) nor the North (if the Brettster plays for Minnesota, you can be pretty sure that there will be at least two games that they'll have to wade through blood to win) is in the bag. So I go with the idea that the Falcons are on the rise. This despite the fact that I have a lot of respect for both Payton and Fox.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Uh, did the NFL create a play in game for the playoffs? Last I heard only 12 teams make the playoffs.

Sorry My bad

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Looks like you have one too many from the AFC, and you need to remove one of those NFC teams to make room for somebody from the NFC West.

I will try this again

Pats- East
Steelers- North
Titans- South
Chargers - West
Texans- Wild Card
Ravens- Wild Card

Giants- East
Vikings- North
Falcons- South
49ers- West
Eagles- Wild Card
Bears- Wild Card

Super bowl- Pats vs Giants..

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

Playoff "locks"

1. New England--Umm, yeah.
2. Pittsburgh--Good coach, good qb, amazing defense, playoff success...They get in.
3. San Diego--As Adam Schein of NFL Radio said today, look at the division, print the t-shirts
4. Philadelphia--Along with NYG will get two of the NFC playoff spots.
5. New York Giants--See above.
6. Minnesota--Best of a weak division. Should get a wild card at absolute worst.


Those who can make it to my house in January for a playoff party:

1. Cleveland--Can't root for Rat-man
2. Detroit--They won't go 0-16 again but they won't win enough for the playoffs.
3. St. Louis--This team in the playoffs? Stephen Jackson and what army?
4. Oakland--Look at the roster and see some talent. Look at the front office and see why they won't go anywhere.
5. Tampa Bay--A lot of turnover in a deep division does not bode well.
6. Jacksonville--Rebuilding on the fly doesn't work.
7. Washington--A lot of talent but in that division with that schedule, I can't see them being better than 8-8.
8. Cincinnati--Doubtful with their division, but the rest of the schedule seems manageable.
9. Denver--Sorry Josh, not yet.
10. New York Jets--I'm not sold on them not making it but out of the 4 AFC East teams, I see them as the least likely. Tough schedule, new coach who could be in over his head, a qb who I am not yet sold on, a lot of pressure to perform now...Maybe next year?

Of my 10 missing the playoffs I think NYJ or Cincy have the best shot of sneaking into the post season.