2009 mock draft FAIL thread

[mayoclinic]

OK here is a perfect case in point, Romeus. Based on height, weight and production, he meets the standards that should get him on the BB draft board. Now if he runs a 4.6 or better at the combine, he would make an ideal "draft and development" 3-4 OLB candidate.

Right now the kid's game is raw and has a few warts. IE: he disappears for long stretches of the game, lacks the technique/ability to set a proper edge and is NOT sudden or explosive. In my book a solid third round pick, maybe late second if a team does not require him to show up in the running game.

The first year with us he plays ST's and backs up whatever retread veteran BB can overpay to start for us. Also during the year Romeus is working with Woicick to get stronger, faster, quicker and at the same time working with the position coach to learn the techniques required to be a 3-4 OLB, then is year 2 or 3, we cut this kid lose and if coached up properly, he should have the ability to be a quality player in our 3-4 base defense.

If nothing else BB should at least have a guy or two like this in the developmental phase/pipeline.

You used the key word, pipeline. I see 3 steps to this process:

Step 1: You have to draft a prospect in order for him to succeed or fail. Sounds simple, but we're struggling with that one.

Step 2: You have to draft the prospects with the best chance of succeeding in your system.

Step 3: It's not a perfect process, so you have to draft more than one of them until you have an adequate pipeline.

BB has failed at all 3 steps. He hasn't even drafted enough OLB candidates to establish a pipeline, much less picked ones with high chances of succeeding.

Here's the potential 3-4 DE/OLB candidates I can think of in the BB era who were drafted between rounds 1 and 5 and who had anything near the kind of measurables that BB claims to look for:

2000: LaVar Arrington (1-3), John Abraham (1-13), Julian Peterson (1-16), Keith Bullock (1-30), John Engelberger (2-35), Clark Haggans (5-137), Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (5-149)

2001: Andre Carter (1-7), Aaron Schobel (2-46), Derrick Burgess (3-63), Carlos Polk (4-112)

2002: Julius Peppers (1-2), Napoleon Harris (1-23), Kalimba Edwards (2-35), Akin Ayodele (3-89), Dennis Johnson (3-98), Alex Brown (4-104), Aaron Kampman (5-156)

2003: Terrell Suggs (1-10), Calvin Pace (1-18), Chris Kelsay (2-48), Antwan Peek (3-57), Robert Mathis (5-138)

2004: Jason Babin (1-27), Karlos Dansby (2-33), Shaun Phillips (4-98), Jared Allen (4-126)

2005: DeMarcus Ware (1-11), Shawne Merriman (1-12), David Pollack (1-17)

2006: AJ Hawk (1-5), Chad Greenway (1-17), Bobby Carpenter (1-18), Manny Lawson (1-22), Mathias Kiwanuka (1-32), Chris Gocong (3-71), Elvis Dumervil (4-126), Ray Edwards (4-127), Rob Ninkovich (5-135), Mark Anderson (5-159)

2007: Gaines Adams (1-4), Jarvis Moss (1-17), Anthony Spencer (1-26), LaMarr Woodley (2-46), Quentin Moses (3-65), Stewart Bradley (3-87), Brian Robison (4-102), Zak DeOssie (4-116), Antwan Barnes (4-134)

2008: Chris Long (1-2), Vernon Gholston (1-6), Lawrence Jackson (1-28), Quentin Groves (2-52), Shawn Crable (3-78), Bruce Davis (3-88), Cliff Avril (3-92), William Hayes (4-103)

2009: Aaron Curry (1-4), Aaron Maybin (1-11), Brian Orapko (1-12), Brian Cushing (1-15), Larry English (1-16), Robert Ayers (1-18), Clay Matthews (1-26), Everette Brown (2-43), Clint Sintim (2-45), Connor Barwin (2-46), David Veikune (2-52), Paul Kruger (2-57), Cody Brown (2-63), Matt Shaughnessy (3-71), Lawrence Sidbury (4-125)

That's 72 prospects between round 1 and 5 over a 9 year period, for an average of 8 per year. The number of potential prospects has been dramatically increasing over recent years, when our need has been greater. During that period we took exactly 1 of those guys, Shawn Crable at #78 in the 3rd round in 2008.

It's fine to gamble on a few late round/UDFA prospects for your pipeline like Tully Banta-Cain (2003), Jeremy Mincey (2006), Pierre Woods (2006), Justin Rogers (2007), Vince Redd (2008) and Darrell Robertson (2009). But they can't be your entire pipeline. The odds of hitting are just too low.

I count 21 potential DE/OLB conversion prospects who grade out between the 1st and 5th rounds for 2010. But it's hard to win the game if we don't even play. We're not even getting to step 1 in the OLB pipeline process.

Take someone. If BB doesn't like Romeus, then maybe he'll like Von Miller, or Ricky Sapp, or Jerry Hughes, or Jermaine Cunningham, or Derrick Morgan, or Jason Worilds, or Austen Lane, or Jeremy Beal, or Jason Pierre-Paul, or Greg Hardy, or Everson Griffen, or O'Brien Schofield, or Carlos Dunlap, or Lindsey Witten, or Sergio Kindle, or Eric Norwood, or ... someone. Anyone. They don't have to be perfect. I don't even care at this point if they're guys that I like - at least we would be making an effort. There's no guarantee that any single prospect will succeed, so we ought to take more than one. But we definitely won't develop a pipeline if we never pick anyone.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

You used the key word, pipeline. I see 3 steps to this process:

Step 1: You have to draft a prospect in order for him to succeed or fail. Sounds simple, but we're struggling with that one.

Step 2: You have to draft the prospects with the best chance of succeeding in your system.

Step 3: It's not a perfect process, so you have to draft more than one of them until you have an adequate pipeline.

BB has failed at all 3 steps. He hasn't even drafted enough OLB candidates to establish a pipeline, much less picked ones with high chances of succeeding.

Here's the potential 3-4 DE/OLB candidates I can think of in the BB era who were drafted between rounds 1 and 5 and who had anything near the kind of measurables that BB claims to look for:

2000: LaVar Arrington (1-3), John Abraham (1-13), Julian Peterson (1-16), Keith Bullock (1-30), John Engelberger (2-35), Clark Haggans (5-137), Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (5-149)

2001: Andre Carter (1-7), Aaron Schobel (2-46), Derrick Burgess (3-63), Carlos Polk (4-112)

2002: Julius Peppers (1-2), Napoleon Harris (1-23), Kalimba Edwards (2-35), Akin Ayodele (3-89), Dennis Johnson (3-98), Alex Brown (4-104), Aaron Kampman (5-156)

2003: Terrell Suggs (1-10), Calvin Pace (1-18), Chris Kelsay (2-48), Antwan Peek (3-57), Robert Mathis (5-138)

2004: Jason Babin (1-27), Karlos Dansby (2-33), Shaun Phillips (4-98), Jared Allen (4-126)

2005: DeMarcus Ware (1-11), Shawne Merriman (1-12), David Pollack (1-17)

2006: AJ Hawk (1-5), Chad Greenway (1-17), Bobby Carpenter (1-18), Manny Lawson (1-22), Mathias Kiwanuka (1-32), Chris Gocong (3-71), Elvis Dumervil (4-126), Ray Edwards (4-127), Rob Ninkovich (5-135), Mark Anderson (5-159)

2007: Gaines Adams (1-4), Jarvis Moss (1-17), Anthony Spencer (1-26), LaMarr Woodley (2-46), Quentin Moses (3-65), Stewart Bradley (3-87), Brian Robison (4-102), Zak DeOssie (4-116), Antwan Barnes (4-134)

2008: Chris Long (1-2), Vernon Gholston (1-6), Lawrence Jackson (1-28), Quentin Groves (2-52), Shawn Crable (3-78), Bruce Davis (3-88), Cliff Avril (3-92), William Hayes (4-103)

2009: Aaron Curry (1-4), Aaron Maybin (1-11), Brian Orapko (1-12), Brian Cushing (1-15), Larry English (1-16), Robert Ayers (1-18), Clay Matthews (1-26), Everette Brown (2-43), Clint Sintim (2-45), Connor Barwin (2-46), David Veikune (2-52), Paul Kruger (2-57), Cody Brown (2-63), Matt Shaughnessy (3-71), Lawrence Sidbury (4-125)

That's 72 prospects between round 1 and 5 over a 9 year period, for an average of 8 per year. The number of potential prospects has been dramatically increasing over recent years, when our need has been greater. During that period we took exactly 1 of those guys, Shawn Crable at #78 in the 3rd round in 2008.

It's fine to gamble on a few late round/UDFA prospects for your pipeline like Tully Banta-Cain (2003), Jeremy Mincey (2006), Pierre Woods (2006), Justin Rogers (2007), Vince Redd (2008) and Darrell Robertson (2009). But they can't be your entire pipeline. The odds of hitting are just too low.

I count 21 potential DE/OLB conversion prospects who grade out between the 1st and 5th rounds for 2010. But it's hard to win the game if we don't even play. We're not even getting to step 1 in the OLB pipeline process.

Take someone. If BB doesn't like Romeus, then maybe he'll like Von Miller, or Ricky Sapp, or Jerry Hughes, or Jermaine Cunningham, or Derrick Morgan, or Jason Worilds, or Austen Lane, or Jeremy Beal, or Jason Pierre-Paul, or Greg Hardy, or Everson Griffen, or O'Brien Schofield, or Carlos Dunlap, or Lindsey Witten, or Sergio Kindle, or Eric Norwood, or ... someone. Anyone. They don't have to be perfect. I don't even care at this point if they're guys that I like - at least we would be making an effort. There's no guarantee that any single prospect will succeed, so we ought to take more than one. But we definitely won't develop a pipeline if we never pick anyone.

Ok next point:

In the first round of the draft, BB is only going to take guys that are legitimate 3 down guys. And he has had great success following that course of action. 100% hit rate.

So now we are in the second round and BB is all over the place with a very eclectic group of guys that can best be described as slight to medium risk/high reward. Guys with a wart or two but also huge upside.
Take Branch for example: coming out he had quick twitch, hands, route running and experience, smarts, etc. He was however considered short and knocked down a long way because of that 1 wart. BB overdrafts the kid despite the height risk and gets high reward.
Take Vollmer for example: coming out of college he had tremendous size and stength, all conference resume, excelled as a zone blocker, but he had a few warts, lack of experience and a year lost to back surgery. Again slight risk vs. risk high reward.
On the other side of the coin are the WR Jackson and WR Johnson's where slight risk wins and BB misses terribly. (And I do consider second round misses to be the coach's fault more than the player.)
If you add it up and count 3 wins from the 2009 class (thus far, jury out on Brace) that gives BB a second round grade of about 60-70% hits.
Now comes the third round, which under BB I am calling the "system" round. He appears to draft guys specifically suited to the "system" or scheme if they can overcome a few warts (IE: Crable and his chicken legs) and here BB has a huge record of busts and failures. By my count only 1 real hit and a ton of misses. (Not the least of which is the imfamous Brock Williams)

So when we draft at #32 this year (barring a trade up), how many 3 down guys are going to be available. The good news here is a bunch because it is a deep draft. So I am guessing (trade or not), BB takes a player in the first round. PS: McClain is a three down LB.

Now we come to the second round (slight to medium risk vs. high reward. How many DE/OLB types would fall into this category that have a legitimate chance to be on the draft board at least once when we are on the clock in the second round?
I see at least three and maybe as many as six. So will BB pull the trigger this year and take one? History says no! So what is it about this position that scares off BB?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Some good, but lots of FAIL. BTW, this is supposed to be a 7-round draft.

27 New England Jerry Hughes DE/LB Texas Christian
45 New England (JAX) Arthur Jones DL Syracuse
50 New England (TEN) Ryan Matthews RB Fresno State
59 New England Rodney Hudson OG Florida State
91 New England Jared Veldheer OT Hillsdale
123 Oakland (NE) Brandon Ghee CB Wake Forest
150 New England (DEN) Abe Koroma DL Western Illinois
155 New England Dexter McCluster RB/WR/KR Ole Miss
187 New England O'Brien Schofield DE/LB Wisconsin
219 Baltimore (NE) Jason Beauchamp LB UNLV

 

[mayoclinic]

Some good, but lots of FAIL. BTW, this is supposed to be a 7-round draft.

That's actually a damn decent draft with a lot of picks:

- Hughes: not my choice, but a solid 3-4 OLB prospect.
- Jones: a damn good 3-4 DE prospect. Good 2nd round value.
- Mathews: darn good RB, and solid 2nd round value.
- Ghee: would be incredible value at 123. He'll be a 2nd round pick.
- McCluster: would be incredible value at 155. He'll be a 3rd round pick. We don't have this pick, as we traded it to Oakland.
- Schofield: would be incredible value at 187. He'll be a 3rd/4th round pick.

Rodney Hudson is a good guard, but is too small. I'd rather go with half a dozen other guys. Jared Veldheer is a 6'8" 325# physical specimen with a lot of athletic ability who is extremely raw. 91 seems rather high for him. We don't have 91 anyway, since we traded it for Derrick Burgess.

This is not a very realistic mock, and has players going all over the place, but it's just a fan mock and an early attempt at a 7 rounder, which is extremely ambitious, so I would cut them some slack. I wouldn't bother to redo it because it's so inaccurate, but there are a lot of values that I wouldn't mind having for the Pats:

#77 - Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida (junior). Should be a 2nd round pick, possibly late 1st. Tremendous value here.

#92 - Gabe Carimi, OT/OG, Wisconsin (junior). 6'7" 325# road grader who would be a fabulous RG and possible RT. Probable 2nd round pick if he declares.

#130 - Nate (not "Gabe") Solder, OT, Colorado (junior). 6'9" athletic freak who supposedly runs a 4.8 40. Still developing, but tremendous upside. Won't last this long if he comes out.

#131 - Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford. A steal this late. Late 2nd/early 3rd round guy most likely.

#163 - Jeremy Beal, DE/OLB, Oklahoma (junior). Late 2nd/early 3rd round guy if he declares. Terrific versatility and motor. A 2011 1st round pick if he stays.

#164 - Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama (junior). Probable 2nd round pick if he declares. Along with Ghee, my favorite CB in the draft after Joe Haden.

#180 - Austen Lane, DE/OLB, Murray State. A 6'6" 260# freak with 4.6 speed and a 6.70 3-cone who should rise fast. 3rd rounder, with a chance to crack the 2nd round if he does well in the pre-draft games and workouts.

FWIW, I haven't bothered to list fan mocks so far, just "professional" ones (though many of these are glorified fan mocks, I admit), because they are so inaccurate.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That's actually a damn decent draft with a lot of picks:

- Hughes: not my choice, but a solid 3-4 OLB prospect.
- Jones: a damn good 3-4 DE prospect. Good 2nd round value.
- Mathews: darn good RB, and solid 2nd round value.
- Ghee: would be incredible value at 123. He'll be a 2nd round pick.
- McCluster: would be incredible value at 155. He'll be a 3rd round pick. We don't have this pick, as we traded it to Oakland.
- Schofield: would be incredible value at 187. He'll be a 3rd/4th round pick.

That's not actually why I called it FAIL.

Look at the numbers where he has the Pats picking, and you should understand.

[FWIW, this same mock drafter last year tried to insist, on the eve of the draft, that the Patriots' reported offers of 23 + 47 for a top 10 pick were signs that the Pats were "desperate" to move up.]

 

[Ochmed Jones]

[FWIW, this same mock drafter last year tried to insist, on the eve of the draft, that the Patriots' reported offers of 23 + 47 for a top 10 pick were signs that the Pats were "desperate" to move up.]

Last year, right after the draft, I think someone posted that BB wanted Ayers real bad and tried like mad to move up to get him, but Denver ruined it for us. So there may be some truth to that rumor, although the desperate part seems a bit over the top.

 

[mayoclinic]

Last year, right after the draft, I think someone posted that BB wanted Ayers real bad and tried like mad to move up to get him, but Denver ruined it for us. So there may be some truth to that rumor, although the desperate part seems a bit over the top.

WEEI reported that Peter King said the Pats had offered 23 and 47 to Jacksonville to move up to 28 on the eve of the draft:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...fering-23-47-jax-8-according-peter-king.html

BB subsequently denied it, and said that there was essentially 0% chance of the Pats moving into the top 10.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

WEEI reported that Peter King said the Pats had offered 23 and 47 to Jacksonville to move up to 28 on the eve of the draft:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...fering-23-47-jax-8-according-peter-king.html

BB subsequently denied it, and said that there was essentially 0% chance of the Pats moving into the top 10.

There was a big thread here about it a few months ago. In any case, this is what said poster had at 8 PM the night before the draft:

Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2009 8:19 pm Post subject: XXXXXXX: Complete 7 Round Mock With Trades Reply with quote
Trades:

New England trades #23, #47, and #58 to Cleveland for #5

It didn't even occur to me to point out the unlikelihood of BB making a trade with Ratgini.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I know mayoclinic doesn't like criticizing amateur drafts, but this is "Pats fans lining up at the Tobin bridge" bad:

TRADES: Buccaneers acquire DT Vince Wilfork & Patriots 2010 1st rd pick(22nd overall) in exchanged for 2010 1st rd pick(3rd overall) & 2010 4th rd pick.

1. RAMS- N.SUH, DT NEBRASKA
2. LIONS- G.McCOY, DT OKLAHOMA
3. Patriots(v/BUCS)- E.BERRY, S TENNESSEE

42. PATRIOTS- COREY WOOTEN, DE NORTHWESTERN
48. PATRIOTS- J.BEST, RB CAL
54. PATRIOTS- M.NEAL, DT PURDUE

:bricks:

As another idea of how bad this draft is, here's another of his trades:

- Browns acquire S Kerry Rhodes & DE/OLB V.Gholston from Jets in exchanged for 2010 2nd, 4th, & WR Chansi Stuckey

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I know mayoclinic doesn't like criticizing amateur drafts, but this is "Pats fans lining up at the Tobin bridge" bad:



:bricks:

As another idea of how bad this draft is, here's another of his trades:

If you think Berry could play CB it's not that bad a draft, horrible trade, but not a bad draft as far as players go.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If you think Berry could play CB it's not that bad a draft, horrible trade, but not a bad draft as far as players go.

Yeah, because the Patriots don't want to pay Wilfork $10M a year, so they trade up so they can pay a rookie $8M a year?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Yeah, because the Patriots don't want to pay Wilfork $10M a year, so they trade up so they can pay a rookie $8M a year?

They post here all the time, it no longer rises to the level of my irritability factor.

 

[mayoclinic]

I know mayoclinic doesn't like criticizing amateur drafts, but this is "Pats fans lining up at the Tobin bridge" bad:

I saw that draft yesterday, and did my best to forget it as soon as possible. There's no limit on dumb ideas, I just don't see the value of publicizing them. Though I agree, this one is worth making an example of.

 

[mayoclinic]

If you think Berry could play CB it's not that bad a draft, horrible trade, but not a bad draft as far as players go.

To pay #3 salary to a kid who's convert back from safety to CB and hasn't proven he can do it?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

To pay #3 salary to a kid who's convert back from safety to CB and hasn't proven he can do it?

I'm not looking at the salaries, just the players - if I started looking at the salaries I'd be face palming on half of your posts.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm not looking at the salaries, just the players - if I started looking at the salaries I'd be face palming on half of your posts.

Only half? That's generous of you. :singing:

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Only half? That's generous of you. :singing:

That's me.

 

[mcsully]

I know mayoclinic doesn't like criticizing amateur drafts, but this is "Pats fans lining up at the Tobin bridge" bad:



:bricks:

As another idea of how bad this draft is, here's another of his trades:

that could be a possibility since they've been wheeling and dealing with one another the past 15 months.. But not for those draft picks..

 

[Sciz]

I can't post links yet, but check out Matt McGuire's mock on WalterFootball.

Facepalm! Gresham in the first, but the 2nd round is where it becomes epic fail. All 3 of those guys are on my "bust waiting to happen" list...

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Yeah, because the Patriots don't want to pay Wilfork $10M a year, so they trade up so they can pay a rookie $8M a year?

This one was soo bad, that I see that both of us had to log in and trash it........(if you go back, both CT and me posted "comments" on this one..

I quoted your and added some more, lets see what the draft's "author" has to say for our collective criticism.