2009 Defense

[mgteich]

I finally added Redd, who almost made the team this year. The questions for me are the re-signing of James Sanders, O'Neal and Wright. If we re-sign all three, I don't see a defensive need in 2009 except at backup safety, and that spot can get filled through free agency.

Re-signing the three (and tendering Woods high) would give us the luxury of using a pick or two on defense if the value is there, even on a developmental prospect.

I just don't see using a top draft pick on a corner when we just did so for Wheatley.

IMO, O'Neal is a stopgap - if they like what he does the rest of the season, they can bring him back, but if they decide to invest in another CB via the draft, then I doubt they'll think twice about moving on from O'Neal.

I agree with the rest of the starting lineup. I have Guyton penciled in as well, for a guy to progress as fast as he has and see his snaps increase, I don't think its crazy to think he could start by next year.

I'd also want to throw Vince Redd into the mix at OLB depth.

Overall, I'm seeing the defense is in pretty good shape for at least next season. As I just said in another thread, if everyone's health holds up (knock on some wood, right now) defense is not looking like a major need going into the April draft - presuming we re-sign guys like Sanders, Woods, and perhaps O'Neal.

If Wheatley and Wilhite develop fast enough, then CB isn't a real need, unless they don't want O'Neal back. If they do, then I can see them using a Day 1 pick on CB.

If Harrison is calling it quits, then another safety will be a need, likely addressed sometime between rounds 2-5 in the draft. If Sanders is re-signed, then they have their starting combo for the next few years.

If Guyton continues to impress, then SILB is no longer a major need. Depending upon what they think of Bo Ruud, I would think they would add some depth to ILB, pretty much anywhere between rounds 2-7.

AD is signed through 2011, Vrabel may be on the back 9, but is still playing a lot of snaps. Woods has proven he can be the first OLB off the bench, if he's re-signed, then between Crable and Redd, there is little need to get an OLB, unless they specifically really target a need and see an area they can upgrade over Crable/Woods/Redd, ie, an OLB with noted exceptional pass rushing skills (I think thats Crable, anyway) or one who is exceptional at dropping back into coverage or covering TEs.

All in all, I'm very excited about the future of this D.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I expect that the team will be looking for at least one safety, at least one corner, two linebackers, and any defensive lineman that intrigues them becomes an instant 'get' given the way this team views the importance of the defensive line.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...9-2009-preview-wheres-talent.html#post1050216 I see no need to change this positional draft needs list, defensively we seem to be in some agreement.

 

[Deus Irae]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...9-2009-preview-wheres-talent.html#post1050216 I see no need to change this positional draft needs list, defensively we seem to be in some agreement.

And that makes me feel much better about my thought process. You're one of my touchstones here, so when we're in agreement, or at least on the same page, I feel pretty confident that my thought process is heading in the right direction.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

And that makes me feel much better about my thought process. You're one of my touchstones here, so when we're in agreement, or at least on the same page, I feel pretty confident that my thought process is heading in the right direction.

Pressure, can't stand the pressure aaagggghhh!

 

[BradyManny]

I just don't see using a top draft pick on a corner when we just did so for Wheatley.

I guess I agree - but we MAY be in a position where we can just take Best Player Available when its time for us to pick next April. There are serious needs on the offensive line, but if they address those via free agency, or determine they can address them internally, then our #1 pick could definitely be a BPA situation. In which case, we may find a corner who would fit well, and then you thank O'Neal for his time, and get younger at the position.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

BB will pick a TE with the #1

 

[BradyManny]

I don't expect Bruschi back unless he's willing to be a backup/1 down kind of player next season.

Interesting, hadn't taken the thought that far yet, even though I agreed w Mgteich that Guyton would start. But Bruschi is slowly moving to the 1 down type player this season. To start the season, he was only in one defensive package, and that's the base 3-4 defense. Even now, they are a) using the base 3-4 package and personnel less b) occasionally giving AD & Guyton snaps at SILB. Still, I would think Bruschi's job would only be in jeopardy if they find someone in the first couple of rounds who they think can be an immediate upgrade or source of competition for Guyton at SILB. Bruschi still provides good depth, his intelligence is still there, he just physically is getting beat and gobbled up by guards at times.

 

[mgteich]

Since this is one of our top needs (along with RT and S), I wouldn't be surprised at all.

BB will pick a TE with the #1

 

[Deus Irae]

BB will pick a TE with the #1

As long as he can block.....

 

[BradyManny]

BB will pick a TE with the #1

Quite possible. Also possible a huge portion of this message board would flip out if that happened. I can see both those things happening actually.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I appreciate Dan Graham more now than in the past

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I appreciate Dan Graham more now than in the past

Old dog, hoop, Graham cracker = tricky

 

[Deus Irae]

Interesting, hadn't taken the thought that far yet, even though I agreed w Mgteich that Guyton would start. But Bruschi is slowly moving to the 1 down type player this season. To start the season, he was only in one defensive package, and that's the base 3-4 defense. Even now, they are a) using the base 3-4 package and personnel less b) occasionally giving AD & Guyton snaps at SILB. Still, I would think Bruschi's job would only be in jeopardy if they find someone in the first couple of rounds who they think can be an immediate upgrade or source of competition for Guyton at SILB. Bruschi still provides good depth, his intelligence is still there, he just physically is getting beat and gobbled up by guards at times.

By the end of the season, I expect Mayo's reads to come much faster, and he'll have a deathgrip on his position for all 3 downs. That's going to leave Bruschi with only one position to play, barring injury to Mayo.

Then, adding Guyton/Woods/insert ILB here, I expect that Bruschi's position will become one played by committee next year. While I think Bruschi is still diagnosing the players brilliantly, I think that he's really lost the explosion stride which used to allow him to apply his diagnosis on the field. It's not that I see him as slow in general, it's that I think the 'fast twitch explosion' muscles, for lack of a better explanation, are not firing at the rate this defense needs from a 2-3 down starting ILB.

There's a saying: "I'm not as good as I once was, but I'm as good once as I ever was", and I think Bruschi is going to have to accept the limitation of numbers and just focus on quality during limited chances.

 

[BradyManny]

By the end of the season, I expect Mayo's reads to come much faster, and he'll have a deathgrip on his position for all 3 downs. That's going to leave Bruschi with only one position to play, barring injury to Mayo.

Then, adding Guyton/Woods/insert ILB here, I expect that Bruschi's position will become one played by committee next year. While I think Bruschi is still diagnosing the players brilliantly, I think that he's really lost the explosion stride which used to allow him to apply his diagnosis on the field. It's not that I see him as slow in general, it's that I think the 'fast twitch explosion' muscles, for lack of a better explanation, are not firing at the rate this defense needs from a 2-3 down starting ILB.

Pretty much agree all around.

 

[mcsully]

I tend to agree with all of you on your opinions but I'd like to throw another name into the conversation. From my point of view, Vrabel looks like he has lost a step. The other night against Denver, Vrabel was having a tough time getting around the blocking of a RB. A year or two ago, he should have beat him and made a play..

Checking his stats after 6 games I noticed he only has 17 Tackles and 2 sacks. A considerable drop from last year and the previous years where he averaged about 80 tackles a year. Vrabel is only averaging 3 tackles a game. This adds up to only 48 tackles this year.. A huge drop off. And when I thought it might be because of his playing time but per Mike Reiss stats he looks to be playing a majority of the downs. (last week LB Mike Vrabel – 44 of 60)

Vrable is one of my favorite player. A blue collar player that plays with a passion. I hope its nothing big but if his production continues at this rate, we might be looking for a new OLB next year..

 

[mcsully]

If this turns out to be a weak draft, I see the pats doing what they always do.. Wheel and deal for the next draft..

And lets not forget, they have had success in the past trading picks for veteran players.. Except starks

 

[mgteich]

Why get younger? We already have Hobbs, Wheatley, Wilfork and Richardson.

I guess I agree - but we MAY be in a position where we can just take Best Player Available when its time for us to pick next April. There are serious needs on the offensive line, but if they address those via free agency, or determine they can address them internally, then our #1 pick could definitely be a BPA situation. In which case, we may find a corner who would fit well, and then you thank O'Neal for his time, and get younger at the position.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Then, adding Guyton/Woods/insert ILB here, I expect that Bruschi's position will become one played by committee next year. While I think Bruschi is still diagnosing the players brilliantly, I think that he's really lost the explosion stride which used to allow him to apply his diagnosis on the field. It's not that I see him as slow in general, it's that I think the 'fast twitch explosion' muscles, for lack of a better explanation, are not firing at the rate this defense needs from a 2-3 down starting ILB.

Well the 'fast twitch' muscles DO deteriorate rapidly with age, so it's not an unreasonable hypothethis. Although the aging process differs markedly between individuals you don't see lots of deep threat 38 yr old wideouts playing.

 

[cstjohn17]

I would think that it is important to consider extensions to Sanders and O'Neal, since their contracts end in 2008. They played ALL the defensive reps against Denver, ALL of them.

Delta O'Neal? extension? never thought I would hear those words.

I agree about Sanders but the Pats have lost their leverage, I can't see any reason he doesn't wait until the offseason before signing which makes him a 50/50 bet to return.

When the 2009 roster is examined, every unit on defense (and offense) could use help.

D Line - The D Line is pretty deep in 09 but Wilfork, Green and Seymour can walk after the season and Wright could be gone after this year. That means in the next 2 seasons 4 of the top 5 defensive lineman can walk, and this is the deepest unit. I would seriously explore trading one of the D linemen after the season, specifically Seymour because he should fetch a pretty high pick (round 1 or 2) plus he has an almost $10 M cap hit.

ILB - Mayo is for real, Guyton is impressing. Bruschi is basically done. Plenty of room for an impact player at ILB.

OLB - Thomas is solid, Vrabel is aging, Woods is ok, Crable is unproven. Pretty solid group, but it is such an important position. You can never have enough impact players on the edge.

Safety - Very weak group, Merriweather is emerging, Sanders is ok but also a free agent. Nothing else to speak of as far as depth. I would look very hard at Safety in round 1 next year, Safety is the one position that can really provide flexibility (see Rodney Harrsion as an example of how to use a Safety in different spots).

CB - Hobbs is pretty good, Duane Starks O'Neal is pretty poor, Richardson, Wilhite and Wheatley are unproven. Ok depth but no real talent. A top end CB also gives the defense a lot of flexibility.

In summary, expect to see significant changes to the defense in the next 2 years. Most of which will come via the draft, IMO.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

I would pray somehow the Patriots end up in position to get that LB from Ohio State....although some more in depth research might be required.

Don't want to risk another Katzenmoyer situation (ie: talented but injury-prone).

Yeah, the defense is going to change a lot in the coming years.

No Bruschi, no Vrabel, no Harrison... at the VERY least. I can see Seymour being the odd man out of the D-line when it comes time to resign. At his money, he should be pressuring the QB a loooooot more (note: did not say sack b/c BB doesn't care about sacks and I agree... the pressure is worth about the same but Seymour hasn't consistently applied pressure in a few years).