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2008: Hillary vs McCain?

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Real World, Jan 25, 2007.

  1. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    It's amazing how much pub the 2008 election is getting. In keeping with it's popularity, here is a Time article and poll.

    2008: Hillary vs McCain?

    Thursday, Jan. 25, 2007 By TONY KARON Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, January 2007
    Jim Watson / AFP / Getty

    Hillary Clinton is the clear front-runner to win the Democratic party's nomination for President in 2008, but the Republican race will be a close contest between Senator John McCain and former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani — with McCain edging Giuliani by a three- to four-point margin. And a presidential face-off between Clinton and McCain, right now, would be close to a dead heat. Those are some of the key findings of a new TIME poll earlier this week that canvassed a random sample of 1,064 registered voters by phone.

    Despite the buzz generated by Senator Barack Obama entering the race, the survey found that Senator Clinton would beat him for the Democratic nomination by a margin of 40% to 21%. Senator John Edwards is a distant third with 11%. Obama clearly suffers a disadvantage in profile among likely voters, with only 51% indicating that they knew enough about him to form an opinion, compared with 94% saying the same of Hillary Clinton. In Obama's favor, however, is his far lower negative ratings. While 58% of voters familiar with Hillary Clinton have a positive view of her, 41% give her negative marks, for a net favorability score of +17. By contrast, Obama's net favorability score is +47. On the Republican side, Giuliani has a net favorability rating of +68, with only 14% having a negative view of him. McCain's net favorability score is +45.

    McCain, however, holds a narrow lead of 30% to 26% over Giuliani for the GOP nomination. A race between McCain and Clinton would be a virtual tie (47%-47%), according to the poll, while McCain would beat either Obama or Senator John Edwards by a 7-point margin.

    Clinton's popularity within her party does not translate as easily across party lines as Obama's does, or indeed as Giuliani's and McCain's. Only 58% of the total sample of respondents had a very or somewhat favorable impression of her, compared with 82% for Giuliani (including 7 out of 10 Democratic voters), and 70% each for Obama and McCain — both of whom showed strongly among independents. These figures must be read against the fact that 94% of respondents said they knew "a great deal" or "some" about Clinton, while 73% said the same of Giuliani and 66% of John McCain. Only 51% knew "a great deal" or "some" about Obama.

    http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1582130,00.html
     
  2. Pujo

    Pujo Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    It doesn't matter if the GOP has a polar bear as their candidate, they will beat Hillary.
     
  3. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    My bet is: Yup.


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  4. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Nothing is ever a certainty, but I do agree with you more or less. I think too many peple view her in a negative light, and that it would be difficult for her. Asfor the articles figures, I can't believe Giuliani's numbers are so good. Just goes to show you that most people don't know about his history yet. It's why early polls are sometimes very useless. What does bode well for McCain and Giuliani, is their favorability with Dems. On the surface, it says that each is moderate. Which I think is the case anyway.
     
  5. Pujo

    Pujo Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    She's a hack, no way around it. I'd only vote for her if I liked her opponent even less. Another election of voting for the lesser evil.
     
  6. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    I feel much the same way. With the exception being I'd vote against her if I had too. Personally, I think the Dems would be making a mistake in nominating her. I'd like to see each party put up a candidate that was at least respected on both sides. I think too many people dislike her in both politics, and in the public.
     
  7. Harry Boy

    Harry Boy Look Up, It's Amazing PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A democrat can win and win big only if he distances himself far far away from the Looney Hollywood Flaming Liberal Kook Moonbats, they have destroyed the once great democratic party.
    Pelosi
    Reid
    Lahey
    Kerry
    Kennedy
    Gore
    Black Caucus
    Hillary (blows with the wind, a phony)

    It is the likes of these people that put GW Bush into the White House--TWICE
    :bricks:
     
  8. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A lot of folks are enamored with this election, but don't see either in the final two... who are the extremes on both sides gonna like.. will only lead to an election that will be mud slinging all the way in. Need folks with less baggage.
     
  9. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Yeah but I don't think McCain has as much baggage as Hillary does. McCain is almost too moderate for the far right. McCains problem is he's such a known commodity. There's nothing interesting about him anymore. When people run for president year in, and year out, without much success, people look past them. It's why I thought Edwards was making a mistake, and why I think Obama is too. Run too many times and you become the Washington Generals. No one takes you seriously.
     
  10. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    Good analogy, but Reagan ran in '68 (?) and certainly in '76. Nixon of course in '60, winning in '68. Bush Sr. ran in '80. Carter in '72 ?? Don't know. Billy not before '92, but he made his big breakthrough at the '88 convention main speech, if I recall.

    So, running more than once is not a big problem. This is obviously it for McCain. If he doesn't do it now he never will. I don't see anyone more electable than him, on either side. Yet.

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  11. mikey

    mikey In the Starting Line-Up

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    All she needs to win the election is to keep all the Kerry states plus one more.

    I like her chances in Ohio. She just need to reverse 50,000 votes from the Buckeye state. With a Democratic governor in charge, I think Ohio is very winnable.

    I think Colorado represents another excellent opportunity for a pickup.

    I believe it will be an complete Democratic takeover of the executive and legislative branches in 2008.

    .
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2007
  12. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    But that is not how election strategy -- or even the decision to run in the first place -- is decided. The question is: *can she win*, and that question is decided by the states. People usually vote by pattern, they follow their habit; once a Dem or Repub, usually always a Dem or Repub. It takes a really unusual candidate, a former Dem-turned-Repub Reagan, to get meaningful numbers to switch sides. Either that or an "October surprise". States are already on record as to how many Repubs and Dems there are. The Red and Blue states.

    Right now, Hillary would have to be caught in bed with a dead man or a live woman to not get virtually all the states that Kerry and Gore got in 00 and 04.

    What people do between now and 08 will decide who wins, so for the Repubs to win, George is going to have to win back a lot of very disenchanted Repub and Independent voters.


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  13. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    About a year ago, the New York Times ran an article about Hillary and the military. She has apparently been working very hard on those issues and at least in New York State has won a number of awards from military groups. The reason she supported anti-flag burning legislation was specifically because troops told her that they were fighting for that flag and it's too big a symbol to allow it to burned at a protest. (I disagree with her very much on this issue.) Whether or not her strength in New York State will win her support elsewhere remains to be seen, but let's face it, she's awfully savvy. I read recently that her campaign might be modeled after Margaret Thatcher's, with Hillary being the Iron Lady redux. Whether you like her or not, if you heard her speak, you would have to agree she's as excellent leadership skills. She's quite a powerhouse.
     
  14. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    No question she's got the public persona chops. But is she best for the nation????


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  15. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Of the Republicans, the only one I think might be good is Guliani. McCain I always felt was a borderline nut, and actually prefer Bush to him. Romney is dishonest; he lied to get elected governor of Massachusetts or he's lying now. I find him pretty despicable. Guliani, while there's much I don't like about him, he's struck me as someone who tells it like he sees it. He's probably the best "outsider candidate." The only one I really like is Edwards, but that's primarily because he's been willing to talk about poverty, an issue that Democrats have moved away from. I feel that core issue is not merely a way to win votes, but it's a way to regain the moral high ground, which should be easy to do after the Bush-Cheney group. It's hard to say who would be best. The best thing about Hillary is her advisers would include her husband, perhaps Al Gore, and other people who demonstrated a lot of talent while serving. There are of course a few other candidates, like Hagel and Obama, who are definitely interesting, but I suspect they're not quite ready for primetime.
     
  16. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Oh, I don't mean you can only run once. I simply mean that you can't run year in and year out, and also need to pay attention to the circumstances surrounding an election. Also, being a candidate in an election, as opposed to running, makes a big difference.
     
  17. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    I almost don't want one party to rule the roost. I think we've seen what one party control, versus split control looks like. The latter, generally speaking, seems to be a more attractive situation. With so many repub seats up for re-election in 2008, the likelyhood is that the Dems will increase their majorities. I wouldn't want to see a Dem pres in that situation. Of course, generally speaking, meaning without knowing who that president would potentially be.
     
  18. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    I disagree. The voting block is not split 50/50. It's independents who tend to decide elections.
     
  19. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    She's a fraud and a fony. She only votes according to the most recent poll she's been handed.
     

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