2008 AFC Playoff Race (Projection) Week 12

[PYPER]

Back by popular demand. This projection model attempts to evaluate the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders. It assumes that legitimate playoff contenders will beat the poor teams on their schedule and split the games they play against their fellow contenders.

Keep in mind, this is NOT a prediction but rather a mathematical breakdown based on laws of probability. It's meant to give us an idea of where each team stands in terms of not only their current record but their remaining schedule as well.

For example: The Patriots currently have a record of 7-4 with five games remaining. Two of those five games are against poor teams that they should beat (EW's). The remaining three games are against good teams that could go either way (CG's). That gives the Patriots an expected record of 10.5 - 5.5 (7-4 + 2-0 + 1.5 - 1.5). Obviously the 1.5-1.5 part is calculated by 3 games times 50% (0.50).

Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention.

TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record

1) Titans: 10-1; @Det,Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 3 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2
2) Jets: 8-3; Den,@SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
3) Steelers: 8-3; @NE,Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5
4) Broncos: 6-5; @NYJ,KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 1 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 9-7
5) Colts: 7-4; @Cle,Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 4 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5
6) Ravens: 7-4; @Cin,Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 2 EW’s; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5
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7) Patriots: 7-4; Pit,@Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 – 5.5
8) Dolphins: 6-5; @StL,@Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 3 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10 - 6
9) Bills: 6-5; SF,Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 1 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 9-7
10) Chargers: 4-7; Atl,Oak,@KC,@TB,Den; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 7.5-8.5

NOTE: I'm keeping SD in the hunt b/c despite their poor record, they're still only two games out of first place and they still play the division leader once. It's starting to look like it might only take 7 or 8 wins to win that division.

 

[BelichickFan]

Could really use a Charger win over the Colts tonight. That loss to The Jest is a KILLER right now. Absolute killer.

 

[mosi]

The Ravens may only win one remaining game. I think the Pats and Colts are going to get the two Wildcard spots. Unfortunetly, the Pats will have to head to Pittsburgh to start.

 

[slash83]

Could really use a Charger win over the Colts tonight. That loss to The Jest is a KILLER right now. Absolute killer.

Especially since they beat the Titans today.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I'm slightly worried about Baltimore. Seeing how they handled Philly they may be able to take Washington. And with Pittsburgh you never know what team shows up. At least Dallas looks back on track now, that is a highly potential loss for them.

Next week's game might not be as losable as I originally thought, could be another must-win if Baltimore handles Cincy as expected. That Seattle game also worries me slightly, they have Hasselback now and aren't nearly as bad as they were early season.

If the Chargers win tonight that would help matters.

 

[slash83]

I'm slightly worried about Baltimore. Seeing how they handled Philly they may be able to take Washington. And with Pittsburgh you never know what team shows up. At least Dallas looks back on track now, that is a highly potential loss for them.

Next week's game might not be as losable as I originally thought, could be another must-win if Baltimore handles Cincy as expected. That Seattle game also worries me slightly, they have Hasselback now and aren't nearly as bad as they were early season.

If the Chargers win tonight that would help matters.

Im much more worried about Arizona then Seattle, Fitz and Boldin would have fun with the way the secondary is playing right now.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Im much more worried about Arizona then Seattle, Fitz and Boldin would have fun with the way the secondary is playing right now.

For sure. I was getting at the fact that earlier Seattle seemed like a freebie, now its still a game we should win but it's not going to be easy, especially in their house.

 

[bostonia3333]

I don't think we should fret this stuff now, let's enjoy the young players getting experience and the growth of Matt Cassel as a qb, or should I say star qb. It looks like Indy's yr(eerily similar to what NYG did last yr), they should be 1-8, but they could be 12-4 when it's all said and done. I think our defense is so bad we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. I mean we needed 35 pts to win at home last week and it seemed like we needed 45 to win today. How can there be this much pressure on the offense? Let's not worry about this and just hope the defense comes around, because it's a disaster right now. If the playoffs come, great, if not, it was still an exciting year of missed opportunities.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

The jets loss is a killer because , I dont see Denver beating the jets next week.. They are not a playoff team.. .San fran or Seattle .. Buffalo maybee and Miami maybee..We need another 2 jet losses, but it looks hard to find one..

 

[Rob0729]

Im much more worried about Arizona then Seattle, Fitz and Boldin would have fun with the way the secondary is playing right now.

I would be more worried about Arizona if it wasn't a 1PM game on the East Coast in December with the Cards most likely having their playoff spot all locked up without any possibility of getting a better seed. They will most definitely have the AFC West locked up at that point. It will be a question of whether they have the first round bye or have no shot at that bye by then.

Personally, I think if the Pats get by Pittsburgh, they could potentially run the table the rest of the way. I don't think there is another game on the schedule that they should lose. If they were playing the Cards in Arizona and they had something to play for, maybe.

 

[ALP]

where do u get a good team between seattle, oakland and buffalo?

we have 2 tough games left, PIT and ARI

 

[TheComeback]

One game at a time.

 

[Rob0729]

The Ravens may only win one remaining game. I think the Pats and Colts are going to get the two Wildcard spots. Unfortunetly, the Pats will have to head to Pittsburgh to start.

I don't know if Pittsburgh is a team the Pats really have to fear. They are one of the least likely playoff teams to expose the Pats weaknesses in the passing game and the way Roethlisberger likes to hold onto the ball helps with the pass rush. Their defense is scary, but I think the Pats' offense can play with any defense right now.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

I don't know if Pittsburgh is a team the Pats really have to fear. They are one of the least likely playoff teams to expose the Pats weaknesses in the passing game and the way Roethlisberger likes to hold onto the ball helps with the pass rush. Their defense is scary, but I think the Pats' offense can play with any defense right now.

I was more worried about the fish game, Im not really concerned with Pitt we could beat them at home... Zona , we should beat at home, it depends on the weather.. 12-4 is not to far off..

 

[billdog3484]

an inexact science, but pretty good nonetheless. if we can beat the steelers this week im sure the breakdown will change substantially. i think we have to root for the chargers tonight, as much as id like to see them lose and be eliminated. oh, and FYI, theres no such thing as an EW

 

[upstater1]

an inexact science, but pretty good nonetheless. if we can beat the steelers this week im sure the breakdown will change substantially. i think we have to root for the chargers tonight, as much as id like to see them lose and be eliminated. oh, and FYI, theres no such thing as an EW

I'm not sure I'm buying the .5 split on the probabilities.

If you forced wins and losses without splitting them (awarding wins by record and, if tied, the tiebreakers) I believe the breaqkdown would look a bit different.

 

[wdkantro2]

I'm not saying to take the Ravens lightly, but the Philly team they handled today is the same Philly team that couldn't even beat the Bengals. Washington is 100x better than Philly, and the fact that the Ravens beat the Eagles gives no indication of how the Ravens could handle Washington. I would say those two are losses for them. They also have to play at Cincy (a rivalry game regardless of how bad Cincy is), and home games against Pitt and Jacksonville.
Best case scenario for them is 2 losses, IMO. The best team they've beat is Miami, and their schedule is filled with wins over Oakland, Cleveland, Houston, etc.
Bottom line, the Pats need to take care of business. There isn't a game left on the schedule against a team who is clearly better than they are. Arizona is an excellent team, but their best win is against the Romo-less Cowboys, with zero other notable wins (maybe Miami week 2, but that was before Miami knew what they had). They match up well against our defense, but did anyone see Eli pick apart that secondary? What are they going to do against the Pats spread, the way Cassel is playing?
Pitt, obviously, is also a very good team, they've beat Washington and that's it in terms of quality. They are a run-based offense, and the Pats have been far more susceptible to the pass than the run. The only bad thing about that game is that Pitt has an extra few days of rest having played on Thursday, another bad break in terms of scheduling (just like the 2 back to back west coast games, having to play the Jets on Thursday after playing a division rival while the Jets had the cupcake Rams, etc.).
Let's just take it one week at a time though. The Pats are in great shape if they can get by Pitt next week.

 

[PYPER]

where do u get a good team between seattle, oakland and buffalo?

we have 2 tough games left, PIT and ARI

Buffalo is considered a "good team" based on their 6-5 record and status as a playoff contender. I'm not trying to evaluate who's good or who's not. The point is that for any team to be a legitimate playoff team, they should beat all the poor teams on their schedule and win roughly half the games they play against other contenders. If Buffalo manages to do that from this point forward, then they'll come close to the expected record assigned to them.

 

[SVN]

arizona might be even resting its players if it has the division and seeding decided before the 2nd last game of the season.

 

[PYPER]

I'm not sure I'm buying the .5 split on the probabilities.

If you forced wins and losses without splitting them (awarding wins by record and, if tied, the tiebreakers) I believe the breaqkdown would look a bit different.

The table basically is stating that if each particular team wants to emerge as a legitimate playoff contender they should be able to beat the poor teams on their schedule and then split their games against the other contenders. That's usually a pretty good formula for winning 10 or 11 games. If the teams in question do that then they'll come close to their expected record. If they overachieve, they'll win more. If they underachieve, they'll win less.

On first glance, I didn't think Baltimore had any chance of approaching their "expected record" b/c I didn't expect them to come anywhere close to winning half of their games against good teams. But after crushing Philly today....Who knows?