Back by popular demand. This projection model attempts to evaluate the expected win totals of the AFC Playoff contenders. It assumes that legitimate playoff contenders will beat the poor teams on their schedule and split the games they play against their fellow contenders. Keep in mind, this is NOT a prediction but rather a mathematical breakdown based on laws of probability. It's meant to give us an idea of where each team stands in terms of not only their current record but their remaining schedule as well. For example: The Patriots currently have a record of 7-4 with five games remaining. Two of those five games are against poor teams that they should beat (EW's). The remaining three games are against good teams that could go either way (CG's). That gives the Patriots an expected record of 10.5 - 5.5 (7-4 + 2-0 + 1.5 - 1.5). Obviously the 1.5-1.5 part is calculated by 3 games times 50% (0.50). Here are the expected records for the rest of the AFC teams in contention. TEAM.....Current Record.....Schedule.....Expected Wins (EW's)....Competive Games (CG's).....Expected Record 1) Titans: 10-1; @Det,Cle,@Hou,Pit,@Ind; 3 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 14-2 2) Jets: 8-3; Den,@SF,Buf,@Sea,Mia; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5 3) Steelers: 8-3; @NE,Dal,Bal,@Ten,Cle; 1 EW; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 11-5 4) Broncos: 6-5; @NYJ,KC,@Car,Buf,@SD; 1 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 9-7 5) Colts: 7-4; @Cle,Cin,Det,@Jax,Ten; 4 EW's; 1 CG's; Exp.Record = 11.5 - 4.5 6) Ravens: 7-4; @Cin,Was,Pit,@Dal,Jax; 2 EWâs; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 â 5.5 ============================================================= 7) Patriots: 7-4; Pit,@Sea,@Oak,Ari,@Buf; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 10.5 â 5.5 8) Dolphins: 6-5; @StL,@Buf,SF,KC,@NYJ; 3 EW's; 2 CG's; Exp.Record = 10 - 6 9) Bills: 6-5; SF,Mia,@NYJ,@Den,NE; 1 EW's; 4 CG's; Exp.Record = 9-7 10) Chargers: 4-7; Atl,Oak,@KC,@TB,Den; 2 EW's; 3 CG's; Exp.Record = 7.5-8.5 NOTE: I'm keeping SD in the hunt b/c despite their poor record, they're still only two games out of first place and they still play the division leader once. It's starting to look like it might only take 7 or 8 wins to win that division.