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I think Brady regressed slightly last year. Yes, he had a patchwork receiving corp which is largely to blame for his struggles, but I recall Brady missing open receivers far more frequently than in previous years. Surprisingly to me, looking at the numbers, it seems his completion percentage for last year was in line with previous seasons.
That's because he didn't regress, his weapons (which have never been spectacular to begin with) did.
And incredible as it may seem, occasionally HOF QB's miss wide open receivers. Although when proficient QB's like Brady miss what appear on TV to be open targets, it's usually because they weren't open on time. Coaches tape will show that while broadcast feeds simply can't.
Last year's WR core struggled to get open period, and when they did it was often too late for the throw that Brady would have had to make a few seconds earlier. If they aren't open when he reads them in his progression, he has to move on in search of another option in his progression or be guilty of staring them down - which tends to lead to picks. If he has the time to return to a receiver who is coming open late his split second choices are still usually to ignore that and throw it away or try to put the ball up in an area where only his receiver (and not fast closing coverage who sees the same thing) has a shot at it. Sometimes that means leading the receiver and sometimes it means trusting him to adjust and come back for the throw (as opposed to hitting him flatfooted which an open Watson often unfortunately is). The only receiver he truly had that kind of rapore with in 2006 was a 35 year old slot receiver who unfortunately has lost a step over the last 2-3 seasons and isn't always quick enough to make the physical adjustment he is still mentally in synch with.
Tom's never consistently had the kind of receivers who due to a combination of size, speed and hands can be trusted to just go up and get throws even against tight coverage, which is a role Moss and Stallworth have both excelled at in their past. Guys who can be a little less precise in working an area because they have the physical talent to compensate for that. Those are the kind of guys whose mere presence allows a QB to make the kinds of plays that break a defeses back while opening up all sorts of opportunities for guys working underneath and across the middle as well as the RB's. This year will be interesting to say the least as a result.
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