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2007 strength of schedule

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by danny88, Mar 10, 2007.

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  1. danny88

    danny88 Banned

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    Raiders .539
    Bills .539
    Patriots .535
    Jaguars .527
    Titans .520
    Colts .516
    Chiefs .516
    Jets .516
    Dolphins .512
    Steelers .512
    Bengals .512
    Ravens .508
    Browns .508
    Broncos .504
    Lions .504
    Texans .504
    Chargers .504
    Redskins .500
    Vikings .500
    Eagles .500
    Cowboys .496
    Giants .496
    Packers .492
    Seahawks .488
    Saints .484
    Panthers .477
    Buccaneers .473
    Rams .473
    Falcons .473
    49ers .469
    Bears .465
    Cardinals .461
  2. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Rookie

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    While I do think the Patriots are a better team in 2007 and still might have a problem winning as many games as in 2006, in part because of the strength of schedule, seeing these stats suggests to me that the talking heads make a much bigger deal about this than need be when they say things like "the Patriots have the 3rd toughest schedule".

    I'm not a statistician but it looks to me like the median strength of schedule is .504

    The Patriots strength of schedule is .535 - so what is that, like one more winning team on the schedule compared to the schedule of a team at .504?

    That's not a huge deal is it? Obviously there are some quirks in the scheduling where the worst team like the Radiers have one of the toughest schedules, but that's in part to the inter-conference game schedule I'd guess, as the rest of the schedule pits them against the bottom dwellers of the other divisions, as well as requires them to play most games within the division.

    So this talk that the Patriots have a "tough" schedule to me is nonsense - we were 1 minute from the SB - we should have a tougher schedule than most other teams - but in the end it looks like maybe we have one, at most two tougher opponents.

    And of course, there's no telling how the season is going to shake out, or how strong each team really will be come the season.
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2007
  3. danny88

    danny88 Banned

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    How much difference is between a .535 and a .516?
  4. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    I don't worry too much about the schedule. Looking ahead to our opponents, only Indy and San Diego can call themselves real powers. The other playoff caliber teams we face, Philly, Dallas, Cincy, Baltimore, are clearly step below us.
  5. richpats

    richpats Banned

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    No matter how tough (or soft) the schedule turns out to be, the Pats have to get the regular season wins against quality AFC opponents outside the division. This has been our downfall in playoff positioning....the Pats are 1-6 against winning AFC teams outside the division the last 2 regular seasons. ONE and SIX.

    The only win was at Pittsburgh in Week 3 of '05. After that, there were whippings at the hands of SD and KC, along with 4 combined losses to our playoff executioners, Denver and Indy.

    The Pats squads of '03-'04 took care of business in the regular season (5-1 in such games), and if they look to get back to the Super Bowl, they need to win them again.

    IMO these games will give us a good idea where the Pats are heading in '07:

    at Indy
    vs SD
    at Baltimore
    at Cincinnati
    vs Pittsburgh

    After the last couple of playoff meltdowns, I'm not OK with losing in the regular season and having to go on the road to beat these teams. The Pats are great but they need advantages too.
  6. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    1. The mean strength of schedule is .500

    2. Strength of schedule is a fraction of 16^2 = 256. Each .04 is one win last season for all the opponents combined. .35 is 9 wins last season for all opponents combined. E.g.,it's the equivalent of replacing two 9-7 teams with a 13-3 team and a 14-2 team.

    3. Against repeat opponents, such as your division-mates, your record last season affects strength of schedule this season. E.g., one reason the Raiders have high strength of schedule is that the AFC West beat up on them last year. The Pats actually were close to .500 against this year's repeat opponents -- 4-2 in the division plus 0-1 against Indy, unless I'm forgetting somebody.

    4. On the other hand, your placement in your division last year affects the strength of schedule in your two variable games this year. E.g., replace San Diego and Indy (our two "rewards" for winning the AFC East) with 9-7 teams, and our strength of schedule is .500

    5. None of this matters much, as past performance is only a weak indicator of future results. The actual strengths of those schedules will turn out to vary a lot from the numbers given above.
  7. tedylb

    tedylb Rookie

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    Have you noticed the disparity between the conferences? The top half are almost all AFC teams, while the bottom half contains almost all NFC. To me, this means the ones with the toughest and weakest schedules are playing more games within their own conferences, and until the NFC gets more parity, the strong (Raiders and a couple of other teams excepted) will continue to feast on the weak in inter-conference games. You know things are unbalanced when the Super Bowl runner-ups, the Bears, are rewarded with the second-easiest strength-of schedule. Imagaine where the Pats would be if they played in the NFC Central!
  8. ChoWZa

    ChoWZa Rookie

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    I want the pats to play every team that made the playoffs last year. I want this superbowl to be undeniable.

    Theres no excuse to lose any games on our schedule.
  9. betterthanthealternative

    betterthanthealternative Rookie

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    Just one more reason why it really sucks to be a Raider and Raider fan.
  10. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    #24 Jersey

    All the better for when we rip right thru it. Pats win four and on the way they beat the toughest schedule in the league.
  11. Scott37

    Scott37 Rookie

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    In real life you're Michael Holley, aren't you?!?
  12. jczxohn1

    jczxohn1 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Our biggest challenges this year may well be from within our own division, Miami and the Jets.
  13. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

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    These stats are really meaningless in the modern day NFL. Teams change so much year to year that last year's standings no longer forecast how tough the schedule will be.

    Of the 12 playoff teams in 2006, only 5 had been playoff teams the year before. If you looked at the schedules at this time last year, Pittsburgh would have been a tough game and New Orleans a cakewalk.
  14. BionicPatriot

    BionicPatriot Rookie

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    Like the above guy said, this is irrelevant. How many times do we sit there and listen to how brutal a teams schedule would be, then the teams end up becoming powder puffs? Altho it's not Patriot related, when Parcells took over the Cowboys everyone said they had no chance to get to the playoffs regardless how they improved cuz their schedule was just to darn tough. The result? They got in because of their schedule! Point is people, half these teams could end up sucking for all we know.

    I look at it like this. The day we Patriot fans look at the schedule and say " oh ****, how do we beat those guys?" Is the day we lost our confidence. Don't expect 16-0, but go into every game thinking you'll win.
  15. patpatriot

    patpatriot Banned

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    Man I *hate* math geeks! They make my head *hurt*!
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