Building off the historic piece of research from Adamjt13: http://www.patsfans.com/messageboard/viewthread.php?tid=5845 This year has been extrordinary from the perspective of UFA flight. The loss of Givens, McGinest, Vinatieri has Pat Fans on edge. Of course, one silver lining would be a nice compensatory draft pick package for 2007. I've been wondering where we stand on that front, so I thought it would be worth some brain-time. First, some history, to set the baseline... 2005 Lost: Damien Woody, Lions, 6 years, $31M -- average $5.2/year Lost: Ted Washington, Oakland, 4 years, $14M -- average $3.5/year Lost: Bobby Hamilton, Oakland, 2 year, $1.3K -- $0.6M/year Lost: Mike Compton, ?? Comp: OT Nick Kaczur (3rd) Comp: LB Ryan Claridge (5th) Comp: TE Andy Stokes (7th) Signed: Keith Traylor, ?? Woody turned into Kaczur and Washington into Claridge. After a year, those losses dont look half bad. No way we could have spent that money on Woody, and in exchange we got a guy who started at LT for us as a rookie. Cool. 2006 Lost: David Patten, Washington, 5 year, $13M -- average $2.6/year Lost: Joe Andruzzi, Browns, 4 year, $9M -- average $2.25/year Lost: Adrian Klemm, Packers, 2 year, $2.6M -- average $1.3/year Comp: OG Dan Stevenson (6th) Comp: DT LeKevin Smith (6th) Signed: Monty Beisel, 2 years, ?? Too soon to tell if Stevenson and Smith are going to be anything for the team, but the loss of Patten and Andruzzi didn't hurt as bad as it could have. If either one of the rooks turn into something for us... well, that's part of the genius of the Foxboro braintrust. 2007 Forecast So based on that, how do our UFA losses shape up? It's the longest list of player losses that I can remember. Eligible for Compensation... so far as I can tell WR David Givens, Tennessee, 5 years, $24M -- average $4.8M/year OT Tom Ashworth, Seattle, 5 years, $13M Seattle -- average $2.6M/year PK Adam Vinatieri, Colts, 5 years, $12M -- average $2.4M/year WR Andre' Davis, Buffalo 1 year, $1.3M -- average $1.3M/year WR Tim Dwight, Jets, 4 years, $4.2M -- average $1M/year TE Christian Fauria, Washington, 2 years, $2M - average $1M/year LB Matt Chatham, Jets, 3 years, $1.7M base salary, plus incentives -- average $0.6M/year Not Eligible for Compensation: LB Chad Brown, retired, not eligible for compensation LB Willie McGinest, Browns, 3 years, $12M-- but not eligible because he was cut CB Tyrone Poole, not eligible because he was cut CB Duane Starks, not eligible because he was cut Free Agents Acquired WR Reche Caldwell, 2 years $2M S Tebucky Jones, 2 years, $1.8M CB Eric Warfield, 2 years, $1.5M S Mel Mitchell, 2 years, $1.3M PK Martin Gramatica, 1 year, $585K Early Forecast: Let's assume that Davis, Dwight, Fauria and Chatham cover our UFA acquisitions of Caldwell, Jones, Warfield and Mitchell. This is assuming that they all make the 53-man, although that's not a sure thing at all. I think Warfield, in particular, is going to have a tough time. Givens's contract should be worth a 4th rounder... maybe a 3rd. Ashworth and Vinatieri would each be worth a 6th. If we keep Gramatica, then we give up one of the 6ths. Yet another reason to root for the rookie kicker. If we cut Mitchell or Warfield, and dont sign anyone else off the street, we should probably get an additional 7th. More likely, either Warfield or Mitchell are likely to be cut, but we sign a veteran QB in free agency-- a wash. We need to root for Givens, Ashworth and Vinatieri to be healthy and productive in losing efforts for their new teams. Best guess for now: we're lined up for three picks, probably a 4th and two 6ths... plus or minus a 6th or 7th. One last thought... what the hell were the Seahawks thinking giving Ashworth that kind of money?!?