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2007 Compensatory Picks... how do we stand so far?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by rookBoston, May 8, 2006.

  1. rookBoston

    rookBoston Rookie

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    Building off the historic piece of research from Adamjt13: http://www.patsfans.com/messageboard/viewthread.php?tid=5845

    This year has been extrordinary from the perspective of UFA flight. The loss of Givens, McGinest, Vinatieri has Pat Fans on edge. Of course, one silver lining would be a nice compensatory draft pick package for 2007. I've been wondering where we stand on that front, so I thought it would be worth some brain-time.

    First, some history, to set the baseline...

    2005
    Lost: Damien Woody, Lions, 6 years, $31M -- average $5.2/year
    Lost: Ted Washington, Oakland, 4 years, $14M -- average $3.5/year
    Lost: Bobby Hamilton, Oakland, 2 year, $1.3K -- $0.6M/year
    Lost: Mike Compton, ??

    Comp: OT Nick Kaczur (3rd)
    Comp: LB Ryan Claridge (5th)
    Comp: TE Andy Stokes (7th)
    Signed: Keith Traylor, ??

    Woody turned into Kaczur and Washington into Claridge. After a year, those losses dont look half bad. No way we could have spent that money on Woody, and in exchange we got a guy who started at LT for us as a rookie. Cool.


    2006
    Lost: David Patten, Washington, 5 year, $13M -- average $2.6/year
    Lost: Joe Andruzzi, Browns, 4 year, $9M -- average $2.25/year
    Lost: Adrian Klemm, Packers, 2 year, $2.6M -- average $1.3/year

    Comp: OG Dan Stevenson (6th)
    Comp: DT LeKevin Smith (6th)
    Signed: Monty Beisel, 2 years, ??

    Too soon to tell if Stevenson and Smith are going to be anything for the team, but the loss of Patten and Andruzzi didn't hurt as bad as it could have. If either one of the rooks turn into something for us... well, that's part of the genius of the Foxboro braintrust.

    2007 Forecast
    So based on that, how do our UFA losses shape up? It's the longest list of player losses that I can remember.

    Eligible for Compensation... so far as I can tell
    WR David Givens, Tennessee, 5 years, $24M -- average $4.8M/year
    OT Tom Ashworth, Seattle, 5 years, $13M Seattle -- average $2.6M/year
    PK Adam Vinatieri, Colts, 5 years, $12M -- average $2.4M/year
    WR Andre' Davis, Buffalo 1 year, $1.3M -- average $1.3M/year
    WR Tim Dwight, Jets, 4 years, $4.2M -- average $1M/year
    TE Christian Fauria, Washington, 2 years, $2M - average $1M/year
    LB Matt Chatham, Jets, 3 years, $1.7M base salary, plus incentives -- average $0.6M/year

    Not Eligible for Compensation:
    LB Chad Brown, retired, not eligible for compensation
    LB Willie McGinest, Browns, 3 years, $12M-- but not eligible because he was cut
    CB Tyrone Poole, not eligible because he was cut
    CB Duane Starks, not eligible because he was cut

    Free Agents Acquired
    WR Reche Caldwell, 2 years $2M
    S Tebucky Jones, 2 years, $1.8M
    CB Eric Warfield, 2 years, $1.5M
    S Mel Mitchell, 2 years, $1.3M
    PK Martin Gramatica, 1 year, $585K

    Early Forecast:
    Let's assume that Davis, Dwight, Fauria and Chatham cover our UFA acquisitions of Caldwell, Jones, Warfield and Mitchell. This is assuming that they all make the 53-man, although that's not a sure thing at all. I think Warfield, in particular, is going to have a tough time.

    Givens's contract should be worth a 4th rounder... maybe a 3rd.
    Ashworth and Vinatieri would each be worth a 6th.

    If we keep Gramatica, then we give up one of the 6ths. Yet another reason to root for the rookie kicker.

    If we cut Mitchell or Warfield, and dont sign anyone else off the street, we should probably get an additional 7th. More likely, either Warfield or Mitchell are likely to be cut, but we sign a veteran QB in free agency-- a wash.

    We need to root for Givens, Ashworth and Vinatieri to be healthy and productive in losing efforts for their new teams.

    Best guess for now: we're lined up for three picks, probably a 4th and two 6ths... plus or minus a 6th or 7th.



    One last thought... what the hell were the Seahawks thinking giving Ashworth that kind of money?!?
  2. jct

    jct Rookie

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    In the interest of accuracy...
    We also lost M Stone totalling 8 FA loses...
    Also Gramaticca,Jones and Warfield don't count (they were cut).
    Net 6 loses with the maximum of 4 picks awarded.
    However we just signed 2 FA LBs who appear to count against us.(with vet min contracts they may not count)
    So it looks like we will get 4 comp picks in 2007 and based on our track record about 1/2 our picks make the team and contribute or basically 2 new guys to come in and replace the older players (and givens) who left...
    Last edited: May 8, 2006
  3. rookBoston

    rookBoston Rookie

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    Alright, so if Gramatica, Jones and Mitchell dont count, but we sign a UFA QB, plus the two LBs (neither one is likely to make the roster)... still looks like a 4th, 6th, 6th, and (possibly) an additional 7th.
  4. shakadave

    shakadave Rookie

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    I say we'll get a 4th and a 6th. Something to look forward to.
  5. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Rook -
    There was a post on this about 2 months ago by myself and one again a month ago referring to my post. You summed it up beautifully. Just want to add a few points.

    Neither Eric Warfield, Tebucky Jones, nor Martin Gramatica will be considered part of the equation in terms of off-sets.

    Also, I believe you have Chatham's numbers incorrect. His base salaries are 585K, 720K and 730K. He also got a signing bonus of 325K and has a work-out bonus of 25K this year. That makes his average worth about 795K, which would qualify him for the equation.

    http://www.jetscap.com/

    As it stands right now, only Caldwell and possibly Mitchell would weigh against the Patriots in the equation and they would off-set Tim Dwight and Matt Chatham or Christian Fauria. Either way, the Pats would still be looking at compensation for Givens (4th, could become a 3rd if he performs), Vinatieri (6th), Ashworth (6th, could move to a 5th based on performance), and Andre Davis (7th). That also leaves Matt Chatham or Christian Fauria to off-set another Veteran signing without touching the compensation. Even a guy up to 1.3 million would still leave the Patriots with 4 compensation picks.

    Now, the reason I say Mitchell may not be a possibility is that, last year, the cut-off was at 660K. Mitchell's contract numbers put him at around 700K avg and I believe that could fall BELOW the minimum salary applicable in this years equation. Which would mean the Patriots would actually have 2 potential signings of up to 1 million to off-set and not lose compensation picks.
  6. deeds

    deeds Rookie

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    I love it! We're already planning for next years draft!!!

    Thx for the info!
  7. the taildragger

    the taildragger Rookie

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    hadn't thought of it from that angle.

    I'm not high on Vince Young's NFL future which would obviously be bad news for Dgiv.

    AV won't miss a kick indoors.

    as for ashworth, I think it's the same reason Givens was overpaid. Teams think they're stealing the secret recipe by bringing Pats into the fold. Also the O-line FA market was limited and seattle has a huge hole to fill on their line.

    I heard Ashworth called us up after signing the deal to thank the team for helping him make all that $$. good for him...sad for Seattle.
  8. Miguel

    Miguel Patriots Salary Cap Guru PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Gardner and Loyd will not count.
    Gardner was released by the Jets in March. Loyd had fewer than 4 seasons. The Rams decided not to give him a RFA tender.
  9. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    AV will be playing in houston dome once a year now. He's already missed 4 there.
  10. OhExaulted1

    OhExaulted1 Rookie

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  11. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rookie

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    He holds onto passes flung his way?
  12. jct

    jct Rookie

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    That is great news...
    Probably they are just camp competition anyway.
    Gardner may earn a spot for his special teams abilities.
    Looks like 4 Cp picks still in 2007.
  13. Bostonian1962

    Bostonian1962 Rookie

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    Rook, another great post by you! Thanks. That's actually pretty helful, because I was wondering how it would shake out, but didn't have the personal fortitude to figure it out.:) Good stuff.
  14. Lloyd_Christmas

    Lloyd_Christmas I can delete my own crap! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I like the topic and I find it fun and interesting to speculate as to what compensation picks we will get in 2007.

    Only one thing that I want to point out. Kaczur and Claridge do not make up for losing Woody, Washington, and Hamilton IMO. I still think it was the right move and all, but from a pure player comparison, teams rarely come out on top with compensatory picks. Same thing with losing Patten and Andruzzi... correct choices to let them go, but it is a stretch to believe a couple 6th rounders will equally replace them.

    The picks are designed to compensate.... they generally do not equally replace.

    Ok... done raining on the parade... I think we will probably get a 4th and 2 6ths and that isn't bad. Givens and Vinatieri are the two biggest losses except for McGinest who we cut.
  15. shakadave

    shakadave Rookie

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    I have a good algorithm for predicting what compensatory picks we'll get: decide what would be fair, then move us back one round from that. To get a 3rd, we'd have to lose Brady!

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