2006 statistical comparison to 2003/4

[PATRIOTS-80]

Was it Mark Twain who once said, "There are Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics"?

On defense, the numbers tell us pretty much the same thing that our eyes do.

On offense, not so much. The 2006 WRs do not compare favorably at all to the 03/04 WRs, either in talent or production.

Actually, I would politely disagree. The 2006 WR's stats are actually quite comparable to 2003. Just take a look at the stats of the WRs in '03.

Player.....catches.....Yds....avg....Long...TD
Deion Branch....57....803.....14.1....66.....3
David Givens....34.....510.....15.0....57.....6
Troy Brown.....40.....472....11.8....82.....4
Kevin Faulk....48....440....9.2.....27.....0
Daniel Graham....38...409....10.8....38....4
Christian Fauria.....28....285....10.2....28....2
Bethel Johnson...16...209...13.1...45....2
David Patten...9....140....15.6....42....0
Dedric Ward....7.....106....15.1....31..1
Larry Centers.....19...106...5.6....14...1
Antowain Smith..14.....92...6.6...16.....0

Consider that this year Caldwell is our best WR with 53 catches, 611 yards and 3 TDs, Watson has 49 catches, 643 yards and 3 TDs. Troy Brown this year has 36 catches, 327 yards and 2 TDs, and Kevin Faulk has 41 catches, 344 yards and 2 TDs.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

Yes - I can tell you that the 2006 offense has not been as good as the 2003 offense... for many of the same reasons Miguel and I have cited in distinguishing a championship offense from the way that this one has been playing to date. It's simply what our guts and our eyeballs tell us.

We're inconsistent, have no deep game that's impacting many other aspects of our game and don't seem to have that "find a way to win" mentality of the 2003/2004 teams. That includes the 2003 offensive unit with Smith.

None of these offenses are/were perfect - but Smith and our running game averaged 3.4 yards per carry in 2003 whereas Dillaroney are averaging 3.8 yards per carry in 2006. That's not an outrageous difference.

The important thing is that 3.4 yards per game were good enough to keep a credible ground game threat to take enough pressure off of Brady to make the passes he needed to make when he needed to make them. The 3.8 yards per carry normally would be enough to keep pressure off of Brady but given the lack of a long game, its impacted Brady and our TEs and, I feel has limited our running game as well as members of the secondary are free to come up to the line of scrimmage.

I just find it interesting that no effort was made to compare the 2002 offense to other teams. In some ways they are "statistically" as good and better than even the Super Bowl teams!

They were #2 in TDs scored and the running game with *gasp* Antowain Smith was as good as the running game we have this year with Dillon and Maroney, with both teams averaging 3.8 yards per carry.

Yet clearly the 2002 squad was lacking something that held them back from a Super Bowl.

Having the fans or worse yet, players, bury their heads in the sand with the statistical confidence they are as good as Super Bowl teams does nothing to help us. Better they recognize what they are lacking - both the tangible and intangible aspects of football - and do their best to address it, before its too late.

The 2002 team is NOT a good comparison because the defense was pathetic. Our defense this year is really, really good. Good enough to give us a really, really good chance at the SB this year. Defense wins championships.

The 2006 running game is better than the '03, and the WRs production are quite similar.

The real heart of the matter is do you, JoeSixPat think the Patriots can get on a hot streak? Your eyeball test (as far as I can ascertain) says we can play good defense and can run the ball. We got #12 under center. Is that good enough to win 3 games and get to the SB? My gut feeling is don't bet against it.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

The problem with eyeball tests is that they're completely subjective. You see one thing, I see another. The value of statistics is that they're objective, everyone can see them, and they can even tell you things about teams and games you haven't eyeballed. But if the stats consistently disagree with your eyeballing, you'll discount them, either because they're bad or because you've got a biased view. The holy grail is a statistical system that correlates well with most peoples eyeballs. I've found the Football Outsiders system to be the best in that regard.

We also all have our prejudices, and they tend to affect what we see. You seem to always see problems with this year's wr's not stretching the field; NEM always sees bad offensive play calling. You can fairly accuse many of the rest of us as seeing too much good in the outcome of any Patriots game.
Statistics can sometimes alert us to our prejudices, if we only let them.

I agree with your post. Well stated.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

I think that as die-hard Pats fans we are very much in tune with what is going on with our team.

When I look back on the last 5 years, I think about the years we won the SB and the years we didn't go.

In 2001, about halfway through November, I knew in my heart that we were going to win the SB that year. Don't know why I was so sure but I felt it coming together and bet a lot of money on that SB and made a pile.

In 2002, I think we played like defending champs but everyone came with thier A game that year and 9-7 was actually a decent record considering how hard it was to live up to being the defending champs.

In 2003, again in november, I knew we were going back to the SB.

2004 was a great season and I was not surprised to win it all again.

Last years chance at another SB was taken away from us by the refs in Denver. Do not say we beat ourselves. The refs put us in a hole and made sure that there was no getting out.

This year I sense the team is very good. Can beat all-comers. But, I don't sense the magic about them that something great is going to happen. I also sense that the league is going to keep us from winning again despite our poplularity nationally. I really believe that we are going to get "ref'd" out of the playoffs again. I have come to loathe the refs of the NFL. Sorry to be so negative but I think the NFL wants fresh meat in the big games, not the same ole bunch.

This year

 

[PatsFanSince74]

it's wonderful that you would do this for all of us and remind us that, while everyone out here is entitled to his or her opinions and while everyone is also entitled to express those opinions in a totally uninformed way (as long as they are polite), there are such things as "facts." thanks, pats1. i'm printing your post and am going to read it carefully this evening. thanks again.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Well I sure wish someone would send these statistics to opposing team Defensive Coordinators, because they sure don't seem to think we have much of a credible deep game.

They've been stacking the line of scrimmage bringing up their safeties to put extra pressure on Brady like the Jets and Dolphins did so well.

Don't these guys know that our Wide Reciever (note the singular) this year is comparable to the Super Bowl teams of 2003 - 2004????

 

[JR4]

Well I sure wish someone would send these statistics to opposing team Defensive Coordinators, because they sure don't seem to think we have much of a credible deep game.

They've been stacking the line of scrimmage bringing up their safeties to put extra pressure on Brady like the Jets and Dolphins did so well.

Don't these guys know that our Wide Reciever (note the singular) this year is comparable to the Super Bowl teams of 2003 - 2004????

.... outstanding post Joe ..

 

[PatsSteve1]

Well I sure wish someone would send these statistics to opposing team Defensive Coordinators, because they sure don't seem to think we have much of a credible deep game.

They've been stacking the line of scrimmage bringing up their safeties to put extra pressure on Brady like the Jets and Dolphins did so well.

Don't these guys know that our Wide Reciever (note the singular) this year is comparable to the Super Bowl teams of 2003 - 2004????

* The stats for this year or how they measure up to other years, mean what? A guaranteed Super Bowl win? No, they really don't mean anything.
They won't help the Patriots win 1 game.