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n Idea of How the Patriots May Set their Draft Board
I. THE MAJORS
My guess is that the following players will be the consensus "elite" talent by the time the combine and pro days are over, and will likely be gone before the Pats pick at #21. Hopefully, by some act of God, a few will fall, as Wilfork did in ‘04:
GROUP “AAAâ€
QB Leinart, USC
QB Young, UT
RB Bush, USC
RB White, USC
WR S. Holmes, OSU
TE Davis, UM
OT Ferguson, UV
DT Ngata, Oregon
DE M. Williams, NCS
DE M. Lawson, NCS
LB AJ Hawk, OSU*** 4-3 LB
LB Greenway, UI *** 4-3 LB
CB J. Williams,VT
DB M Huff, UT
I think after these elite prospects, all the other draftable prospects can pretty much be divided into two major categories, Day 1 and Day 2 Talent, and several minor ones, which I am about to lay out.
II. THE MINORS
Through the 2003 draft, a good case can be made, and has been made by others, that Belichick and Pioli used a "Value Grouping" strategy on draft day, and this produced the stellar 2003 crop that contributed to 2 SB championships. But afterwards, according to M. Holley in Patriot Reign, Belichick's approach to the draft changed drastically after consulting with Jimmy Johnson, who advised him to make a list of the players he really wanted before the draft, and then grab them when available no matter where others had them rated. This new strategy was especially evident in the 2005 class, where every pick could have been considered a reach on draft day (See Mankins & Kaczur), but in fact produced another stellar crop, once again shutting up the so-called experts. And since this worked so well, it's reasonable to assume Belichick will repeat his 2005 strategy in 2006. So, I think in order to guess who the Pats will draft in '06 the trick is to make an educated guess about the players BB has scribbled on his private list, and ignore all the draft sites with their various rankings, because BB's vision of football is so unique.
The most fundamental thing we know about BB when it comes to the Draft is that he trusts his friends. We have seen this with Saban, and now with Pat Hill at Fresno State. The personnel evaluations of his football confidantes hold great weight, so we should definitely look at the rosters of his college protégés Pat Hill, Charlie Weiss, Kurt Ferentz, and Al Groh. Other college programs to which BB seems especially close are: Florida, where he visited with Urban Meyer last year; Navy, where he studied the run game and his father coached; LSU, where he still has some in-depth knowledge of the roster from talks with Saban before Saban took the Miami job; and BC, where he has had contact with Tom O'Brien, who is a Naval Academy grad. One caveat: The Pats haven't drafted a player from Iowa the entire time Ferentz has been there, for example passing over Iowa DE Matt Roth last year. Other than saying a few complimentary things about OT Gallery in '04, I can't remember BB having any interest at all in an Iowa product. The evidence suggests BB isn't enamored with Ferentz' program, at least to the degree he was with Saban’s and is now with Pat Hill’s. So I would drop Ferentz down to a secondary group of BB disciples and friends.
The first roster group I will designate GROUP “AAâ€, and it consists of players on Fresno State and Notre Dame, players whose programs are viewed most favorably by the Pats.
The second group, GROUP “A†consists of prospects from Navy, Florida, Virginia and LSU, in whose programs Belichick has demonstrated personal interest.
The third group, GROUP “B†is made up of prospects from Boston College and Iowa, teams coached by friends of BB, but in whose programs and personnel BB has shown no consistent interest.
NOTE: From here on I will put a “1†or a “2†in front of the grouping designation for each player, indicating my guess as to whether the Pats consider the player to have “Day 1†or “Day 2†Talent- not of much of a stretch, I think.
GROUP “AAâ€:
CB R. Marshall, Fresno 1AA
WR M. Stovall, ND 1AA
DE G. Mcyntire, Fresno 2AA
QB P. Pinegar, Fresno 2AA
GROUP “Aâ€:
RB J. Addai, LSU 1A
OT A. Whitworth, LSU 1A
WR C. Jackson, UF 1A
CB D. Webb, UF 1A
OC Mike Degory, UF 1A
DE C. Wroten, LSU 1A***drug problem
RB Lundy, UVA 2A
WR S. Green, LSU 2A
LB Parham, UVA 2A
LB C. Vaugn, LSU 2A
OT Trueblood, BC 2A (BC O-Linemen are +1 grade)
OG Ross, BC 2A (BC O-Linemen are +1 grade)
OT Butler, UVA 2A
DT K. Williams, LSU 2A
WR Dallas Baker, UF 2A
OT R. Hand, UF 2A
S J. Herring, UF 2A
GROUP “Bâ€
DE Kiwanuka, BC 1B
LB Abdul Hodge, UI 1B***4-3 LB
CB Blackmon, BC 2B
WR Ed Hinkel, UI 2B
WR C. Solomon, UI 2B
CB A, Allen, UI 2B***legal issues
There are two more minor groups to go. The first is “GROUP “Câ€, a special group consisting of players from Georgia, a program the Pats have paid special attention to in the past (Seymour, Watson)
GROUP “Câ€:
OG M. Jean-Gilles, UG 1C
TE L. Pope, UG 1C
CB D. Minter, UG 1C
S G. Blue, UG 1C
CB T. Jennings, UG 2C
DT G. Anderson, UG 2C
OT D. Roland, UG 2C
DT K. Golston, UG 2C*** (legal issues)
The final minor group is GROUP “BBâ€, an aptly named miscellaneous collection of players who are not the cream of the crop in the '06 draft, but are DAY ONE impact players from random schools, and who (IMO) seem to best fit the Patriot mould. (A prior example is Ellis Hobbs from Iowa State):
GROUP “BBâ€
DE T. Hali, PSU BB
DE D. Tapp, VT BB
LB Carpenter, OSU BB
LB Schlegel, OSU BB
LB Havner, UCLA BB
DE McClover, Aub BB
DE Wimbley, FSU BB
OT Colledge, Boise St. BB
OG D. Joseph, OU BB
C Mangold, OSU BB
RB D. Moore, NM BB
RB Drew, UCLA BB
DT Oshinowo, Stan BB
DT Stanley, Louisville BB
III. NARROWING THE FIELD
The following are factors that can help us whittle down and organize the Patriot Draft Board:
i. Drafting for Need
Examining Patriot Drafts back to 2002, we see that in each case a very good argument can be made that with their first pick the Pats drafted for their top need each time, not for Best Player available, as some teams preach (although in the case of Wilfork, need and quality coincided). In 2002, they needed a pass catching TE and moved up for Graham. In 2003, they needed a 3-4 DE and drafted Warren; in 2004, they needed a young NT and drafted Wilfork; in 2005 they needed OLine help and drafted Mankins. So we can narrow down the probability of what players BB will select with his first pick by figuring out the Pats top need.
Here’s my take:
1. Quality Youth at LB
2. Quality Youth in the secondary
3. #2 WR
4. Future RB
5. OL
6. Kick Returner
7. Back-up NT
We could quibble and say maybe Need 2 should be Need 1, or vice versa, but in any case youth at LB and youth in the Secondary seem like the obvious top two needs to me, in view of the Pats past reluctance to draft skill position players in Rd 1 and the fact they addressed O-Line last year.
ii. Preferring Seniors to Juniors.
The Pats seem to prefer Seniors to Juniors, although it is not a fixed rule (J. Sanders, Wilfork, M. Hill). Intelligence, maturity and experience all play a factor in this.
iii. Drafting for the 3-4.
The Pats like tall, converted college DEs to play their 3-4 OLBs, and big ILBs who relish taking on blockers. The make-up of the 3-4 D-Line is radically different from a 4-3 as well.
iv. Preferring choir boys to criminals.
… safer investments and better chemistry.
IV. THE PATRIOT DRAFT BOARD
So here is my suggested list of players according to need, in descending rank based on talent and the other factors listed above:
NEED #1. LB
1. DE M. Lawson, NCS (AAA)
2. LB AJ Hawk, OSU (AAA***) 4-3 LB
LB Greenway, UI (AAA***) 4-3 LB
4. DE Kiwanuka, BC (1B)
5. LB Abdul Hodge, UI (1B***) 4-3 LB
6. DE T. Hali, PSU (BB)
DE D. Tapp, VT (BB)
LB Carpenter, OSU (BB)
LB Havner, UCLA (BB)
DE McClover, Aub (BB)
DE Wimbley, FSU (BB)
LB Schlegel, OSU (BB)
13. DE B. Mcyntire, Fresno (2AA)
14. LB Parham, UVA (2A)
15. LB C. Vaughn, LSU (2A)***4-3 LB
NEED #2 DB
1. CB R. Marshall, Fresno (1AA)
2. CB D. Webb, UF (1A)
3. CB D. Minter, UG (1C)
S G. Blue, UG (1C)
5. CB/WR/KR Blackmon, BC (2B)
6. CB T. Jennings, UG (2C)
7. CB A, Allen, UI (2B)***legal problems
NEED #3: WR
1. WR M. Stovall, ND (1AA)
2. WR C. Jackson, UF (1A)
3. WR S. Green, LSU (2A)
4. WR Ed Hinkel, UI (2B)
WR C. Solomon, UI (2B)
6. WR Dallas Baker, UF (2A)***attitude
NEED #4: RB
1. RB J. Addai, LSU (1A)
2. RB D. Moore, NM (BB)
RB Drew, UCLA (BB)
4. RB Lundy, UVA (2A)
NEED #5: OL
1. OT A. Whitworth, LSU (1A)
OC Mike Degory, UF (1A)
3. OG M. Jean-Gilles, UG (1C)
4. OT Colledge, Boise St. (BB)
OG D. Joseph, OU (BB)
C Mangold, OSU (BB)
7. OT Trueblood, BC (2A)***(BCOL+1)
OG Ross, BC (2A)***(BCOL+1)
OT Butler, UVA (2A)
OT R. Hand, UF (2A)
OT D. Roland, UG (2C)
NEED #6: Back-up NT
1. DT Oshinowo, SU BB
DT Stanley, Louisville BB
3. DE C. Wroten, LSU (1A)***drug problem
4. DT K. Williams, LSU (2A)
5. DT G. Anderson, UG (2C)
6. DT K. Golston, UG (2C)*** (legal issues)
I. THE MAJORS
My guess is that the following players will be the consensus "elite" talent by the time the combine and pro days are over, and will likely be gone before the Pats pick at #21. Hopefully, by some act of God, a few will fall, as Wilfork did in ‘04:
GROUP “AAAâ€
QB Leinart, USC
QB Young, UT
RB Bush, USC
RB White, USC
WR S. Holmes, OSU
TE Davis, UM
OT Ferguson, UV
DT Ngata, Oregon
DE M. Williams, NCS
DE M. Lawson, NCS
LB AJ Hawk, OSU*** 4-3 LB
LB Greenway, UI *** 4-3 LB
CB J. Williams,VT
DB M Huff, UT
I think after these elite prospects, all the other draftable prospects can pretty much be divided into two major categories, Day 1 and Day 2 Talent, and several minor ones, which I am about to lay out.
II. THE MINORS
Through the 2003 draft, a good case can be made, and has been made by others, that Belichick and Pioli used a "Value Grouping" strategy on draft day, and this produced the stellar 2003 crop that contributed to 2 SB championships. But afterwards, according to M. Holley in Patriot Reign, Belichick's approach to the draft changed drastically after consulting with Jimmy Johnson, who advised him to make a list of the players he really wanted before the draft, and then grab them when available no matter where others had them rated. This new strategy was especially evident in the 2005 class, where every pick could have been considered a reach on draft day (See Mankins & Kaczur), but in fact produced another stellar crop, once again shutting up the so-called experts. And since this worked so well, it's reasonable to assume Belichick will repeat his 2005 strategy in 2006. So, I think in order to guess who the Pats will draft in '06 the trick is to make an educated guess about the players BB has scribbled on his private list, and ignore all the draft sites with their various rankings, because BB's vision of football is so unique.
The most fundamental thing we know about BB when it comes to the Draft is that he trusts his friends. We have seen this with Saban, and now with Pat Hill at Fresno State. The personnel evaluations of his football confidantes hold great weight, so we should definitely look at the rosters of his college protégés Pat Hill, Charlie Weiss, Kurt Ferentz, and Al Groh. Other college programs to which BB seems especially close are: Florida, where he visited with Urban Meyer last year; Navy, where he studied the run game and his father coached; LSU, where he still has some in-depth knowledge of the roster from talks with Saban before Saban took the Miami job; and BC, where he has had contact with Tom O'Brien, who is a Naval Academy grad. One caveat: The Pats haven't drafted a player from Iowa the entire time Ferentz has been there, for example passing over Iowa DE Matt Roth last year. Other than saying a few complimentary things about OT Gallery in '04, I can't remember BB having any interest at all in an Iowa product. The evidence suggests BB isn't enamored with Ferentz' program, at least to the degree he was with Saban’s and is now with Pat Hill’s. So I would drop Ferentz down to a secondary group of BB disciples and friends.
The first roster group I will designate GROUP “AAâ€, and it consists of players on Fresno State and Notre Dame, players whose programs are viewed most favorably by the Pats.
The second group, GROUP “A†consists of prospects from Navy, Florida, Virginia and LSU, in whose programs Belichick has demonstrated personal interest.
The third group, GROUP “B†is made up of prospects from Boston College and Iowa, teams coached by friends of BB, but in whose programs and personnel BB has shown no consistent interest.
NOTE: From here on I will put a “1†or a “2†in front of the grouping designation for each player, indicating my guess as to whether the Pats consider the player to have “Day 1†or “Day 2†Talent- not of much of a stretch, I think.
GROUP “AAâ€:
CB R. Marshall, Fresno 1AA
WR M. Stovall, ND 1AA
DE G. Mcyntire, Fresno 2AA
QB P. Pinegar, Fresno 2AA
GROUP “Aâ€:
RB J. Addai, LSU 1A
OT A. Whitworth, LSU 1A
WR C. Jackson, UF 1A
CB D. Webb, UF 1A
OC Mike Degory, UF 1A
DE C. Wroten, LSU 1A***drug problem
RB Lundy, UVA 2A
WR S. Green, LSU 2A
LB Parham, UVA 2A
LB C. Vaugn, LSU 2A
OT Trueblood, BC 2A (BC O-Linemen are +1 grade)
OG Ross, BC 2A (BC O-Linemen are +1 grade)
OT Butler, UVA 2A
DT K. Williams, LSU 2A
WR Dallas Baker, UF 2A
OT R. Hand, UF 2A
S J. Herring, UF 2A
GROUP “Bâ€
DE Kiwanuka, BC 1B
LB Abdul Hodge, UI 1B***4-3 LB
CB Blackmon, BC 2B
WR Ed Hinkel, UI 2B
WR C. Solomon, UI 2B
CB A, Allen, UI 2B***legal issues
There are two more minor groups to go. The first is “GROUP “Câ€, a special group consisting of players from Georgia, a program the Pats have paid special attention to in the past (Seymour, Watson)
GROUP “Câ€:
OG M. Jean-Gilles, UG 1C
TE L. Pope, UG 1C
CB D. Minter, UG 1C
S G. Blue, UG 1C
CB T. Jennings, UG 2C
DT G. Anderson, UG 2C
OT D. Roland, UG 2C
DT K. Golston, UG 2C*** (legal issues)
The final minor group is GROUP “BBâ€, an aptly named miscellaneous collection of players who are not the cream of the crop in the '06 draft, but are DAY ONE impact players from random schools, and who (IMO) seem to best fit the Patriot mould. (A prior example is Ellis Hobbs from Iowa State):
GROUP “BBâ€
DE T. Hali, PSU BB
DE D. Tapp, VT BB
LB Carpenter, OSU BB
LB Schlegel, OSU BB
LB Havner, UCLA BB
DE McClover, Aub BB
DE Wimbley, FSU BB
OT Colledge, Boise St. BB
OG D. Joseph, OU BB
C Mangold, OSU BB
RB D. Moore, NM BB
RB Drew, UCLA BB
DT Oshinowo, Stan BB
DT Stanley, Louisville BB
III. NARROWING THE FIELD
The following are factors that can help us whittle down and organize the Patriot Draft Board:
i. Drafting for Need
Examining Patriot Drafts back to 2002, we see that in each case a very good argument can be made that with their first pick the Pats drafted for their top need each time, not for Best Player available, as some teams preach (although in the case of Wilfork, need and quality coincided). In 2002, they needed a pass catching TE and moved up for Graham. In 2003, they needed a 3-4 DE and drafted Warren; in 2004, they needed a young NT and drafted Wilfork; in 2005 they needed OLine help and drafted Mankins. So we can narrow down the probability of what players BB will select with his first pick by figuring out the Pats top need.
Here’s my take:
1. Quality Youth at LB
2. Quality Youth in the secondary
3. #2 WR
4. Future RB
5. OL
6. Kick Returner
7. Back-up NT
We could quibble and say maybe Need 2 should be Need 1, or vice versa, but in any case youth at LB and youth in the Secondary seem like the obvious top two needs to me, in view of the Pats past reluctance to draft skill position players in Rd 1 and the fact they addressed O-Line last year.
ii. Preferring Seniors to Juniors.
The Pats seem to prefer Seniors to Juniors, although it is not a fixed rule (J. Sanders, Wilfork, M. Hill). Intelligence, maturity and experience all play a factor in this.
iii. Drafting for the 3-4.
The Pats like tall, converted college DEs to play their 3-4 OLBs, and big ILBs who relish taking on blockers. The make-up of the 3-4 D-Line is radically different from a 4-3 as well.
iv. Preferring choir boys to criminals.
… safer investments and better chemistry.
IV. THE PATRIOT DRAFT BOARD
So here is my suggested list of players according to need, in descending rank based on talent and the other factors listed above:
NEED #1. LB
1. DE M. Lawson, NCS (AAA)
2. LB AJ Hawk, OSU (AAA***) 4-3 LB
LB Greenway, UI (AAA***) 4-3 LB
4. DE Kiwanuka, BC (1B)
5. LB Abdul Hodge, UI (1B***) 4-3 LB
6. DE T. Hali, PSU (BB)
DE D. Tapp, VT (BB)
LB Carpenter, OSU (BB)
LB Havner, UCLA (BB)
DE McClover, Aub (BB)
DE Wimbley, FSU (BB)
LB Schlegel, OSU (BB)
13. DE B. Mcyntire, Fresno (2AA)
14. LB Parham, UVA (2A)
15. LB C. Vaughn, LSU (2A)***4-3 LB
NEED #2 DB
1. CB R. Marshall, Fresno (1AA)
2. CB D. Webb, UF (1A)
3. CB D. Minter, UG (1C)
S G. Blue, UG (1C)
5. CB/WR/KR Blackmon, BC (2B)
6. CB T. Jennings, UG (2C)
7. CB A, Allen, UI (2B)***legal problems
NEED #3: WR
1. WR M. Stovall, ND (1AA)
2. WR C. Jackson, UF (1A)
3. WR S. Green, LSU (2A)
4. WR Ed Hinkel, UI (2B)
WR C. Solomon, UI (2B)
6. WR Dallas Baker, UF (2A)***attitude
NEED #4: RB
1. RB J. Addai, LSU (1A)
2. RB D. Moore, NM (BB)
RB Drew, UCLA (BB)
4. RB Lundy, UVA (2A)
NEED #5: OL
1. OT A. Whitworth, LSU (1A)
OC Mike Degory, UF (1A)
3. OG M. Jean-Gilles, UG (1C)
4. OT Colledge, Boise St. (BB)
OG D. Joseph, OU (BB)
C Mangold, OSU (BB)
7. OT Trueblood, BC (2A)***(BCOL+1)
OG Ross, BC (2A)***(BCOL+1)
OT Butler, UVA (2A)
OT R. Hand, UF (2A)
OT D. Roland, UG (2C)
NEED #6: Back-up NT
1. DT Oshinowo, SU BB
DT Stanley, Louisville BB
3. DE C. Wroten, LSU (1A)***drug problem
4. DT K. Williams, LSU (2A)
5. DT G. Anderson, UG (2C)
6. DT K. Golston, UG (2C)*** (legal issues)
