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2006 Patriot Draft Board Analysis

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by PonyExpress, Feb 12, 2006.

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  1. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    n Idea of How the Patriots May Set their Draft Board


    I. THE MAJORS
    My guess is that the following players will be the consensus "elite" talent by the time the combine and pro days are over, and will likely be gone before the Pats pick at #21. Hopefully, by some act of God, a few will fall, as Wilfork did in ‘04:

    GROUP “AAAâ€
    QB Leinart, USC
    QB Young, UT
    RB Bush, USC
    RB White, USC
    WR S. Holmes, OSU
    TE Davis, UM
    OT Ferguson, UV
    DT Ngata, Oregon
    DE M. Williams, NCS
    DE M. Lawson, NCS
    LB AJ Hawk, OSU*** 4-3 LB
    LB Greenway, UI *** 4-3 LB
    CB J. Williams,VT
    DB M Huff, UT

    I think after these elite prospects, all the other draftable prospects can pretty much be divided into two major categories, Day 1 and Day 2 Talent, and several minor ones, which I am about to lay out.

    II. THE MINORS

    Through the 2003 draft, a good case can be made, and has been made by others, that Belichick and Pioli used a "Value Grouping" strategy on draft day, and this produced the stellar 2003 crop that contributed to 2 SB championships. But afterwards, according to M. Holley in Patriot Reign, Belichick's approach to the draft changed drastically after consulting with Jimmy Johnson, who advised him to make a list of the players he really wanted before the draft, and then grab them when available no matter where others had them rated. This new strategy was especially evident in the 2005 class, where every pick could have been considered a reach on draft day (See Mankins & Kaczur), but in fact produced another stellar crop, once again shutting up the so-called experts. And since this worked so well, it's reasonable to assume Belichick will repeat his 2005 strategy in 2006. So, I think in order to guess who the Pats will draft in '06 the trick is to make an educated guess about the players BB has scribbled on his private list, and ignore all the draft sites with their various rankings, because BB's vision of football is so unique.
    The most fundamental thing we know about BB when it comes to the Draft is that he trusts his friends. We have seen this with Saban, and now with Pat Hill at Fresno State. The personnel evaluations of his football confidantes hold great weight, so we should definitely look at the rosters of his college protégés Pat Hill, Charlie Weiss, Kurt Ferentz, and Al Groh. Other college programs to which BB seems especially close are: Florida, where he visited with Urban Meyer last year; Navy, where he studied the run game and his father coached; LSU, where he still has some in-depth knowledge of the roster from talks with Saban before Saban took the Miami job; and BC, where he has had contact with Tom O'Brien, who is a Naval Academy grad. One caveat: The Pats haven't drafted a player from Iowa the entire time Ferentz has been there, for example passing over Iowa DE Matt Roth last year. Other than saying a few complimentary things about OT Gallery in '04, I can't remember BB having any interest at all in an Iowa product. The evidence suggests BB isn't enamored with Ferentz' program, at least to the degree he was with Saban’s and is now with Pat Hill’s. So I would drop Ferentz down to a secondary group of BB disciples and friends.
    The first roster group I will designate GROUP “AAâ€, and it consists of players on Fresno State and Notre Dame, players whose programs are viewed most favorably by the Pats.
    The second group, GROUP “A†consists of prospects from Navy, Florida, Virginia and LSU, in whose programs Belichick has demonstrated personal interest.
    The third group, GROUP “B†is made up of prospects from Boston College and Iowa, teams coached by friends of BB, but in whose programs and personnel BB has shown no consistent interest.

    NOTE: From here on I will put a “1†or a “2†in front of the grouping designation for each player, indicating my guess as to whether the Pats consider the player to have “Day 1†or “Day 2†Talent- not of much of a stretch, I think.

    GROUP “AAâ€:
    CB R. Marshall, Fresno 1AA
    WR M. Stovall, ND 1AA
    DE G. Mcyntire, Fresno 2AA
    QB P. Pinegar, Fresno 2AA


    GROUP “Aâ€:

    RB J. Addai, LSU 1A
    OT A. Whitworth, LSU 1A
    WR C. Jackson, UF 1A
    CB D. Webb, UF 1A
    OC Mike Degory, UF 1A
    DE C. Wroten, LSU 1A***drug problem
    RB Lundy, UVA 2A
    WR S. Green, LSU 2A
    LB Parham, UVA 2A
    LB C. Vaugn, LSU 2A
    OT Trueblood, BC 2A (BC O-Linemen are +1 grade)
    OG Ross, BC 2A (BC O-Linemen are +1 grade)
    OT Butler, UVA 2A
    DT K. Williams, LSU 2A
    WR Dallas Baker, UF 2A
    OT R. Hand, UF 2A
    S J. Herring, UF 2A


    GROUP “Bâ€
    DE Kiwanuka, BC 1B
    LB Abdul Hodge, UI 1B***4-3 LB
    CB Blackmon, BC 2B
    WR Ed Hinkel, UI 2B
    WR C. Solomon, UI 2B
    CB A, Allen, UI 2B***legal issues

    There are two more minor groups to go. The first is “GROUP “Câ€, a special group consisting of players from Georgia, a program the Pats have paid special attention to in the past (Seymour, Watson)

    GROUP “Câ€:
    OG M. Jean-Gilles, UG 1C
    TE L. Pope, UG 1C
    CB D. Minter, UG 1C
    S G. Blue, UG 1C
    CB T. Jennings, UG 2C
    DT G. Anderson, UG 2C
    OT D. Roland, UG 2C
    DT K. Golston, UG 2C*** (legal issues)


    The final minor group is GROUP “BBâ€, an aptly named miscellaneous collection of players who are not the cream of the crop in the '06 draft, but are DAY ONE impact players from random schools, and who (IMO) seem to best fit the Patriot mould. (A prior example is Ellis Hobbs from Iowa State):

    GROUP “BBâ€
    DE T. Hali, PSU BB
    DE D. Tapp, VT BB
    LB Carpenter, OSU BB
    LB Schlegel, OSU BB
    LB Havner, UCLA BB
    DE McClover, Aub BB
    DE Wimbley, FSU BB
    OT Colledge, Boise St. BB
    OG D. Joseph, OU BB
    C Mangold, OSU BB
    RB D. Moore, NM BB
    RB Drew, UCLA BB
    DT Oshinowo, Stan BB
    DT Stanley, Louisville BB


    III. NARROWING THE FIELD

    The following are factors that can help us whittle down and organize the Patriot Draft Board:

    i. Drafting for Need

    Examining Patriot Drafts back to 2002, we see that in each case a very good argument can be made that with their first pick the Pats drafted for their top need each time, not for Best Player available, as some teams preach (although in the case of Wilfork, need and quality coincided). In 2002, they needed a pass catching TE and moved up for Graham. In 2003, they needed a 3-4 DE and drafted Warren; in 2004, they needed a young NT and drafted Wilfork; in 2005 they needed OLine help and drafted Mankins. So we can narrow down the probability of what players BB will select with his first pick by figuring out the Pats top need.
    Here’s my take:

    1. Quality Youth at LB
    2. Quality Youth in the secondary
    3. #2 WR
    4. Future RB
    5. OL
    6. Kick Returner
    7. Back-up NT

    We could quibble and say maybe Need 2 should be Need 1, or vice versa, but in any case youth at LB and youth in the Secondary seem like the obvious top two needs to me, in view of the Pats past reluctance to draft skill position players in Rd 1 and the fact they addressed O-Line last year.

    ii. Preferring Seniors to Juniors.

    The Pats seem to prefer Seniors to Juniors, although it is not a fixed rule (J. Sanders, Wilfork, M. Hill). Intelligence, maturity and experience all play a factor in this.

    iii. Drafting for the 3-4.

    The Pats like tall, converted college DEs to play their 3-4 OLBs, and big ILBs who relish taking on blockers. The make-up of the 3-4 D-Line is radically different from a 4-3 as well.

    iv. Preferring choir boys to criminals.

    … safer investments and better chemistry.

    IV. THE PATRIOT DRAFT BOARD

    So here is my suggested list of players according to need, in descending rank based on talent and the other factors listed above:

    NEED #1. LB

    1. DE M. Lawson, NCS (AAA)
    2. LB AJ Hawk, OSU (AAA***) 4-3 LB
    LB Greenway, UI (AAA***) 4-3 LB
    4. DE Kiwanuka, BC (1B)
    5. LB Abdul Hodge, UI (1B***) 4-3 LB
    6. DE T. Hali, PSU (BB)
    DE D. Tapp, VT (BB)
    LB Carpenter, OSU (BB)
    LB Havner, UCLA (BB)
    DE McClover, Aub (BB)
    DE Wimbley, FSU (BB)
    LB Schlegel, OSU (BB)
    13. DE B. Mcyntire, Fresno (2AA)
    14. LB Parham, UVA (2A)
    15. LB C. Vaughn, LSU (2A)***4-3 LB



    NEED #2 DB

    1. CB R. Marshall, Fresno (1AA)
    2. CB D. Webb, UF (1A)
    3. CB D. Minter, UG (1C)
    S G. Blue, UG (1C)
    5. CB/WR/KR Blackmon, BC (2B)
    6. CB T. Jennings, UG (2C)
    7. CB A, Allen, UI (2B)***legal problems


    NEED #3: WR

    1. WR M. Stovall, ND (1AA)
    2. WR C. Jackson, UF (1A)
    3. WR S. Green, LSU (2A)
    4. WR Ed Hinkel, UI (2B)
    WR C. Solomon, UI (2B)
    6. WR Dallas Baker, UF (2A)***attitude


    NEED #4: RB

    1. RB J. Addai, LSU (1A)
    2. RB D. Moore, NM (BB)
    RB Drew, UCLA (BB)
    4. RB Lundy, UVA (2A)


    NEED #5: OL

    1. OT A. Whitworth, LSU (1A)
    OC Mike Degory, UF (1A)
    3. OG M. Jean-Gilles, UG (1C)
    4. OT Colledge, Boise St. (BB)
    OG D. Joseph, OU (BB)
    C Mangold, OSU (BB)
    7. OT Trueblood, BC (2A)***(BCOL+1)
    OG Ross, BC (2A)***(BCOL+1)
    OT Butler, UVA (2A)
    OT R. Hand, UF (2A)
    OT D. Roland, UG (2C)


    NEED #6: Back-up NT

    1. DT Oshinowo, SU BB
    DT Stanley, Louisville BB
    3. DE C. Wroten, LSU (1A)***drug problem
    4. DT K. Williams, LSU (2A)
    5. DT G. Anderson, UG (2C)
    6. DT K. Golston, UG (2C)*** (legal issues)
  2. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    (Continued)

    V. DRAFT DAY STRATEGY

    Free Agency Additions: If Pats sign cap-casualty players like WR Eric Moulds or CB Ty Law, or resign WR David Givens, obviously draft strategy will change with respect to those needs.


    DAY ONE STRATEGY: Assuming all the AAA prospects are gone before #21, I foresee the Pats addressing their top 2 needs with their first two picks, and then, with their two picks of the 3rd rd (#75 & #86) taking the best player available while addressing two of needs 3-5.

    Round 1, #21: DE/OLB Mathias Kiwanuka (1B), Tamba Hali (BB), or Daryl Tapp (BB)
    Round 2, #52: CB Richard Marshall (1AA), CB Dee Webb (1A), CB Demario Minter (1C)
    Round 3, #75 & #86:
    WR Stovall (1AA) or WR C. Jackson (1A)-
    RBs Addai (1A), Moore (BB), or M. Drew (BB)-
    OL Whitworth (1A), Jean-Gilles (1C), Colledge (BB), Joseph (BB), or Mangold (BB), or OC Degory 1A.


    BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR DAY ONE: OLB Kiwanuka, CB Richard Marshall, WR C. Jackson, OT Colledge.

    WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR DAY ONE: OLB Daryl Tapp, CB Dee Webb, RB Maurice Drew, OG Davin Joseph.

    DAY TWO STRATEGY: with their two picks of the 4th rd (#105 & #117) I see the Pats addressing the one Need 3-5 they neglected in Rd 3, while also addressing NEED #6, punt returner. Picks in Rd 5-7 will be used to maneuver as necessary in Rds 1-4, and also to take the best available Nose Tackle.

    Round 4, #105 & #117
    1st day sliders or WR/KR S. Green (2A) or CB/KR Will Blackmon (2B) or RB Lundy (2A), or OT Trueblood (2A), OC Ross (2A), OT Butler (2A) or OT Hand (2A).

    Rounds 5-7:
    1st Day sliders or DTs Kyle Williams (2A) or DT Ger. Anderson (2C).


    BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR DAY TWO: WR S. Green, RB D. Moore, DT M. Stanley.

    WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR DAY TWO: CB/WR/KR Will Blackmon, DT Ger. Anderson.
  3. patpatriot

    patpatriot Banned

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    Good Job!

    PE,

    A very thorough and well thought-out analysis. My main criticism is that you favor players from UG and FS too heavily while ignoring players from programs like OU. In that case you have players like Carpenter and Shlegel but Ignore others like Whitner (SS) who are acknowledged blue-chip prospects. Lastly, there are some prospects who because of unusual size/speed combinations or particular skills (NT KR) should be on their list. So, I would add the following players to the Pat's draft board:

    o Whitner (SS) D1
    o Pollard (SS-Purdue- another BB-favored program) D1
    o Jason Allen (FS/CB Tennesse- has BB ever drafted a UT player?) D1
    o Roman Harper (FS-UA) D1

    o Youboty (CB OU) D1
    o Gorden (CB/WR Kansas) D1
    o (Martin (CB Wyoming) D1

    o Roach MLB UA) D2
    o Hoyte (MLB NCState) D2

    o Fifita (NT Utah) D2

    o Haralson (DE/OLB UT) D1
    o Ninkovich (DE/OLB Perdue) D2
    o Wyche (DE/OLB Syracuse) D2
    o Gocong (DE/OLB CalPoly) D2

    o Cook (C NM) D2

    o Sims (G OU) D2

    o LeVoir (T ND) D2

    o Klopfenstein (TE Colorado) D1
    o Day (TE OU) D1

    o Nance (WR OU) D1
    o Baskett (WR NM) D1
    o Green (WR LSU) D2

    o Bell (RB Arizona) D2
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2006
  4. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A fun read Pony, nice way to start your tenure.

    Myself, I think you can overemphasize BB's relationships. The Saban relationship was unique in that you had two defensive geniuses using the same basic defensive scheme. It wasn't ust two friends talking SEC football, but two artists brainstorming together. I don't see that being the same for BB with Al Groh, Pat Hill, Kirk Ferentz, etc. Groh may be a defensive coach, but he isn't in the same class as BB and Saban. Hill is an offensive coach,as is Charlie Weis and Kirk Ferentz. There may be a friendship, but not necessarily the same passions.

    What I did like about your take was the emphasis on "Patriots' Players", That is a challenge for folks to suss out what the NEP may be looking for in a player and match it to a "need".

    I'll have to ponder your posts and give you more indepth feedback.

    Welcome!
  5. flutie2phelan

    flutie2phelan Rookie

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    Pony, this is undoubtedly the finest maiden post i have read.

    Clearly, drafts-manship is your passion. But beyond the effort you put in for yourself ... you organized and sorted clearly, describing the flow of logic for those of us who do not reside in your mind. I'm very glad that you shared this intensive scrutiny of your extensive fact-gathering with us.

    Box's criticism that you over-simplified thru over-emphasis ... BB's friendships ... i find true. But - even if exaggerated - you have highlighted a significant aspect of coach's drafts.

    I won't be surprised if half the guys we draft in 9 or 10 weeks ... fit your criteria ... indeed, appear in your tables.

  6. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    Having read Patriot Reign and Tom Curran's article on BB's drafting technigques, I always wonder why people think the Patriots draft for NEED. They don't. Neither do they draft by best player available. People who simplify it to this level ignore what BB has gone on record as saying.

    The Patriots draft by Best VALUE available. That VALUE is a conglomeration of Need, Talent and Intangibles.

    If you take how RookBoston describes his Value Grouping and read the article from Tom Curran, you will see that what RookBoston describes is what the Patriots do with their Vertical and Horizontal groupings.
  7. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress Rookie

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    Your responses made me question whether my previous analysis was too simplistic and random to help project the pool of players the Pats may draft from in 2006. So I went back through the Belichick drafts since 2000, looking for trends in order to either justify or dismiss my initial conclusions, which I had largely drawn from intuition.

    Patriots Draft Analysis of Trends and Patterns since 2000.

    Since 2000, the Pats have drafted 49 players, 17 on the first day. Below is a breakdown by school, each schools slotted with priority given to (1) Highest number of player(s) selected; (2) Most recent player(s) selected (3)Highest draft position of player(s) selected.
    *** indicates a player drafted on Day 1


    LSU: (3) QB Davey, 2002; DE Green, 2002; DE Hill, 2004***
    ND: (3) CB Williams, 2001***; TE Holloway, 2001; WR Givens 2002.
    Fresno State: (2) OG Mankins, 2005***; SS Sanders 2005
    Illinois: (2) FS Wilson, 2003***; CB Morton, 2004
    Texas A&M: (2) DE Warren, 2003***; WR Johnson 2003***.
    Georgia: (2) DE Seymour, 2001***; TE Watson, 2004***
    Miami: (2) CB L. Myers, 2001; DT Wilfork, 2004***
    BYU: (2) K Pochman, 2001; FB Nead, 2003.
    Virginia: (2) FS Harris, 2000, RB Womack, 2002
    Purdue: (2) DE Nugent, 2000; T Light, 2001***
    Michigan State: (2) T Randall 2000 OLB Turner 2001
    Iowa State; (1) CB Hobbs, 2005***
    Toledo (1) OT Kaczur, 2005***
    UNLV: (1) LB Claridge, 2005
    USC: (1) QB Cassell, 2005
    WPenn: (1) TE Stokes, 2005
    Florida: (1) DB Scott, 2004***
    Arkansas: (1) RB Cobbs, 2004
    Florida State: (1) WR PK Sam 2004.
    NC: (1) DB Reid, 2004
    Temple: (1) DT Klecko, 2003
    Central Florida: (1) CB Samuel, 2003
    BC: (1) C Koppen 2003
    Texas Tech: (1) QB Kingsbury, 2003
    California: (1) OLB Banta-Cain 2003
    Baylor: (1) DT Kelley, 2003
    Colorado: (1) TE Graham 2002***
    Louisville: (1) WR Branch, 2002***
    S Florida: (1) T K. Jones, 2001
    Washington: (1) OLB Akbar, 2001
    SC State: (1) TE Love, 2001
    Hawaii: (1) T Klemm, 2000***
    Arizona St: (1) FB Redmond, 2000***
    Boise State: (1) TE Stachelski, 2000
    Missouri: (1) G Mariott. 2000
    Michigan: (1) QB Brady, 2000

    Total Draft Picks by Conference (by current conference organization)
    SEC: 7 (14%)
    Big 12: 7 (14%)
    Big 10: 7 (14%)
    ACC: 7 (14%)
    WAC: 4 (8%)
    Ind: 4 (8%)
    PAC-10: 4 (8%)
    MWC: 3 (6%)
    Big East: 2 (4%)
    MAC: 1 (2%)
    CUSA: 1 (2%)
    MEAC: 1 (2%)
    NAIA: 1 (2%)

    First Day Draft Picks by Conference
    Big 12: 4 (24%)
    SEC: 4 (24%)
    Big 10: 2 (11%)
    WAC: 2 (11%)
    MWC: 2 (11%)
    ACC: 1 (6%)
    Big East: 1 (6%)
    Independent: 1 (6%)

    First Day Draft Picks by School
    Georgia: 2 (11%)
    Texas A&M: 2 (11%)
    Fresno State: 1 (6%)
    Iowa State: 1
    Toledo: 1
    Miami: 1
    LSU: 1
    Florida: 1
    Illinois: 1
    Colorado: 1
    Louisville: 1
    Purdue: 1
    ND: 1
    Hawai: 1
    Arizona St: 1

    Draft Picks from Schools whose head coaches were affiliated with BB
    10 (20%)

    Breakdown:
    LSU: (Saban): 3
    Fresno State (Hill): 2
    Virginia (Groh): 2
    Michigan State (Saban): 2
    BC (O’Brien): 1

    Trends since 2000

    -Since 2000, almost 50% (24 of 49) of Pats draft picks have come from only 11 schools: LSU, ND, Georgia, Texas A&M, Illinois, Fresno St, Miami, BYU, Virginia, Purdue and Michigan State.

    -Since 2000, the Pats have drafted almost 20% (10 of 49) of their players from 4 schools with close coaching affiliations with BB: LSU, Michigan State (under Saban), Virginia, Fresno St.

    -Since 2000, the Pats have drafted a majority of their players (56%) from only 4 conferences, the SEC, the Big 12, the ACC and the Big 10.

    -Since 2000, the Pats have drafted almost half their first day picks (47%), from two conferences, the Big 12 and the SEC.

    HOW THE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ABOVE ALTERS MY ORIGINAL PLAN

    This is how the Pats draft board may be constructed, in descending priority.

    (1) The consensus elite prospects in the country

    (2) Prospects from college programs whose Head coaches coached with BB, divided into two tiers:

    A.
    Fresno St
    Notre Dame

    B.
    LSU
    Virginia

    (3) Prospects from programs where BB had shown personal interest:
    Florida, BC

    (4) Prospects from Schools where BB had demonstrated a trend of scouting interest for FIRST DAY TALENT. This list should include:
    Georgia and Texas A&M.

    (5) Prospects from schools where BB has demonstrated a general scouting trend:
    Illinois, Miami, Purdue, BYU, Michigan State, and I would add UNLV to this list, as it is one of only two schools in the nation to run a 3-4 defense, with Virginia being the other. One could make the argument that MSU should be subtracted from this list, since Saban is long gone.

    (6) Miscellaneous prospects who randomly fit the Patriot mould.

    HOW DOES ALL THIS TRANSLATE TO THE 2006 DRAFT?

    In 2006 the Pats have 9 picks, before compensatory picks are awarded. According to the analysis of past drafts since 2000, we can expect the list of prospects from the 8 schools listed in groups (2), (3) and (4) to make up 50% of the Pats 2006 Day One draft picks (two players out of four), and 33% of the Pats total 2006 draft class, or 3 players out of nine. Also, if statistics hold to form, we can expect 1 out of the 4 2006 Day One picks to come from the 6 schools in Group #5, and roughly 2 players out of the total 9, or 23 %, to come from Group (5).

    Since the change in draft strategy in 2004, let’s see how this statistical model would have worked if it had been applied earlier to predict Pats draftees.


    2004
    Rd1 DT Wilfork, Miami (Group 1 and Group 5)
    Rd1 TE Watson, Georgia (Group 4)
    Rd2 DE Hill, LSU (Group 2)
    Rd3 SS Scott, Florida (Group 3)
    Rd4 DB Reid, NC
    Rd4 RB Cobbs, Ark
    Rd5 WR Sam. FSU
    Rd7 CB Morton, Ill (Group 5)

    Analysis: 3 of the first 4 picks of the 2004 Draft, all Day One picks, would have been listed in the priority pool drawn from only EIGHT SCHOOLS, with the other, Wilfork, being a consensus Elite player and also a Group (5) player.

    2005
    Rd 1 OG Mankins, Fresno St (Group 2)
    Rd 3 CB Hobbs, Iowa St
    Rd 3 OT Kaczur, Toledo
    Rd 4 SS Sanders, Fresno St. (Group 2)
    Rd 5 LB Claridge, UNLV (Group 5)
    Rd 7 QB Cassell, USC
    Rd 7 TE Stokes, WP

    Analysis: 2 out of the first 4 picks would have been drawn from the priority pool of only 8 schools, and 3 out of the first 5 would have been drawn from the priority list of 13 schools. That pool would have been whittled down based on need projections prior to the draft also.


    CONCLUSION

    Since the change in draft strategy beginning with the 2004 draft, the Pats have selected 3 out of their first 4 picks in 2004 and 2 out of their first 4 in 2005 from a pool of players drawn from only 8 priority schools, and 4/4 and 3/5 in 2004 and 2005, respectively, from a pool of only 13 schools. Therefore, by examining the rosters in 2006 of these 8 schools: ND, Fresno St, LSU, Virginia, Florida, BC, Georgia and Texas A&M, and matching it to the Patriots current needs, we have a good chance to anticipate the pool of “Patriot Players†BB and Pioli will select from during the 2006 NFL Draft, especially on Day One.
  8. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I like your latest analysis much better - how would it look if you matched up BB friends and their opponents? For example, Florida and Georgia play LSU giving Saban an opportunity to scout for BB or at least give him a second opinion. Fresno State has been eagerly lining up to play giant killer against top twenty teams and ND has always had a challenging schedule - how would that affect the 2006 perspective compared to teams playing in strong conferences like the SEC and Big12?

    Since your on a nice roll, how would it look if you controlled for starters and significant role players, e.g. Seymour/Watson/Green, and reduced the priority of failures? Off the cuff, Georgia and Texas A&M still look good, but Virginia under Groh gets a thumbs down. Which programs have been more consistent in producing BB guys? You could include UDFAs like Gay and Wright to really get into the details...
  9. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Welcome!

    Of course many will say how we MUST have this player or postion in a particular round. As we know, that is not the way the patriots draft.

    FIRST, the patriots fill ALL positions in free agency, so that it can be said that we hav a team ready to go with NO contributions from rookies. Then we look to the value groupings that rook and Curran have described.

    I'm with Box regard to groupings. The issue is VALUE. By Draft Day we will have many times discussed the value groupings.

    There will be the elite 12 or 10 or 15

    There will then we a grouping for each of our picks.
    ---------------------------------------------------------

    The patriots will then look at the draft as it develops and trade accordingly. For example, if #17 has just been picked and only two of our guys are left, we will quickly try to trade to assure us of one of our group. Of course, we will have projections of players that other teams are interested in.

    Alternatively if we get to 20 or 21 and there are five of our players left, we will trade down, since we can pick up a pick and get a value player.

    I believe that college connection is being overplayed. That is certainly where bb started in the 2000 draft. I recall drafting Marriot and Nugent on the say so of our coaches.
  10. patpatriot

    patpatriot Banned

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    Value groupings and colleges

    In looking at this further I think that certain college programs appeal to the Pats but I don't think they have the weight you are suggesting. Where it really seems to have some predictive power is when you are looking to rank basically even players in a value grouping like:

    Dee Webb Fl vs Kelly Jennings Mia vs Allen Zemaitis PS

    Your theory would predict that if all were available, Webb would be the choice.

    Another would be:

    Anthony Fasano ND vs Tim Day Org vs Kloppenstein Col

    Fasano would be the one.

    Should be fun to go back and see if this worked in this years draft.
  11. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    Considering we have 3 Colorado TEs on the roster, I'm not sure that's an accurate statement.
  12. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Since when do the Pats have 3 Colorado TEs on their roster? Only Fauria and Graham went to Colorado. Watson went to Georgia.


    Are you including Ashworth in your list?
  13. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Seems reasonable, ol' heat likes to make us do some thinking behind our normal slack-jawed, glassy-eyed expression. :eek:
  14. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    PE -
    You've done a great job with your analysis here. However, there is something else to consider.

    The Patriots do not use ANY of the scouting companies. The Pats use their own group. They have one of the largest, if not THE LARGEST scouting department in the league. So, when you say the "CONSENSUS ELITE PROSPECTS" in the nation, its a misnomer because the Pats don't go by that.

    Also, I would review the 2004 draft again. If you look, the players that the Patriots took all played against Saban and LSU at some point.

    I think that BOX brought up a good point that you should also look at the teams that played against the colleges where BB has coaching relations. This will help with the analysis.

    Also, why do you say they changed their draft strategy in 2004?
  15. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa Rookie

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    Not to nitpick Dabruinz. But, Miami(Wilfork),Fla St(Sam) and NC (Reid)
    didn't play against LSU. I have Phil Steele's preview and their schedule
    goes back to 1999. LSU didn't play any of those teams. Saban may
    have seen them on film against common opponents or tried to recruit
    them. But, none of them played against LSU.
  16. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    I am. He was a TE at Colorado, and didn't play OL until the Pros.
  17. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't consider it nitpicking. Its correcting me. And I had forgotten that LSU hadn't played those 3. However, that still leaves Watson, Cobbs, Scott, Hill and Morton that Saban did have a hand in :D. 5 of 8 is still pretty significant.
  18. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    BTW, Fauria isn't technically on the roster anymore. He's a UFA... But I get the gist of what you mean.
  19. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Rookie

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    I don't see Fassano in a Pats uniform next season, even as an undrafted free agent. Weiss had fits over this guys fumbling and the rumor is the reason he's coming out early is because Weiss was going to sit him after the first fumble next season.

    I've could not conceive of a situation where Brown of Florida is on BB's draft board.

    I do feel strongly that once the Pats draft board is set, BB sticks to it like glue. And I do agree with Box that BB does follow a value grouping philosophy. I think a lot of other head coaches fall in love with certain players and that should be a no no. One of the reasons that BB can float up and down and around the draft board so freely is because he's not locked in to certain players and other coaches are. (ie: Boller to Baltimore)

    Interesting note: The last time we had a draft this strong (the Wilfork draft) BB did no moving and just picked players.
  20. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And, unfortunately, the Pats have already cut half of that draft class. Only Wilfork, Watson, Hill and G. Scott remain.
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