2006 AFC East Season Preview

[mavfan2390]

I'm glad you're getting an indoor practice facility, wanna know why? So that when you get here on December 10th and its negative 20 degrees, it'll be even easier for my Pats. :singing:

 

[PlattsFan]

The schedule is the most overlooked aspect in the NFL. I think no one wants to really consider the implications, but a team's schedule has so much to do with how a season turns out. The Patriots got an absolutely killer schedule last year, so bad that I thought it was a deliberate attempt by the NFL to knock them down a notch. You literally couldn't design a schedule last year that would've been tougher. Now, I don't know if it was deliberate or not, but the cold fact is that the various factors of a team's schedule (when they play road games, who they play where and when, who they get coming off of a short week, etc) make a huge difference in where teams end up late in the year. And the Patriots' schedule is so much easier this year.

It's nice to think that how good a team is is the only basis for how they turn out, but it's not so in the NFL.

But, even setting schedule aside, the Patriots look a little better than last year. To me, the Pats are better on offense this year with the additions of Maroney, Jackson, the TEs, Light and (maybe) Caldwell, and the mild loss of Givens. On defense, they may be better if the DBs are healthier and Beisel is better (or Claridge or TBC give them something), but they may not be. Which is not a bad thing, since the defense that ended last year was a very good one (as opposed to the porous unit in the middle of the year). They won't be much worse (McGinest was a nice role player, but he wasn't a core guy on the field anymore), if at all. The defense dominated Denver in Denver in the playoffs; it was the offense that didn't come through in that game.

And can everyone PLEASE stop obsessing about a kicker? Jeez.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Ashworth should be left out of the conversation. He wasn't a full-time starter, nor would he have if retained.

Like it or not, Vinatieri was an 80% kicker.

In 2005, his field goal percentage was exactly at 80%. In 2003, it was at 74%, and in 2001, it was also at 80%.

Colvin IS all the way back. He has been all the way back since early last year. The injury occured almost THREE years ago.

Gardner or Roach won't even make the roster. It's either Beisel or Banta-Cain who will start.

True, Jackson or Maroney hasn't done a thing yet in the NFL, but like any other draft picks, they haven't gotten their chance. I don't think every high draft pick for every team has been a bust. The Pats have gotten great production out of their picks in their rookie years, and there's no indications that trend will cease.

I don't see why not overpaying for Givens and McGinest, and thus damaging the teams' financial future means they haven't improved. All Pats fans should have well realized by now that retaining overpaid guys like Law, Woody, or Milloy means nothing to how the team will perform in the coming season.

Like it or not, the Pats' schedule IS relaxed. They went through one of the hardest stretches for any NFL team in the beginning of last year, and I'm sure you'll agree that some of the teams the Pats will play are going nowhere fast and don't compare to some of the teams from last year.

First of all, my only point is that we can't say at this time that we've improved until we see how these guys work out in camp and on the field. It's all I'm saying. And, I also don't think that BB would disagree with that statement. A lot of posts in this thread, your's included, are about what we hope rather than about what we had and what we have.

I already conceded the point on Ashworth, whether or not he belongs in this conversation.

There's no objective observer who said that Colvin was all the way back last year. And, BTW, his was typically a career ending injury. It's a tribute to his incredible abilities that he's come back as far as he has. This is the key year for him if he's to be the HOF level guy we thought we were getting.

we just flat out disagree on Vinatieri's value. it has nothing to do with "80%" or "whatever percent." It has to do with an experienced kicker who's gotten the job done in the most pressurized situations in the game under all sorts of conditions vs. a head case and a rookie. No matter how you cut it, no matter how hard you insist, you can't say we've improved with that tradeoff.

i would also seriously argue your point about Law. We paid three guys last year to try to take his place and we paid them together as much or more money than we would have played Ty and they didn't combine for his ten interceptions or make critical stops when we needed them.

The Milloy decision was the right one, I don't think anybody would argue that point.

As for he production out of draft picks in their rookie year. Agree re Kakzur and others, but which Receiver has ever delivered for us big time in their rookie year?

your statement about "not overpaying for Givens and McGinest, and thus damaging the teams' financial future means they haven't improved" defies logic. The point isn't to connect overpaying and improving. It's simply that they haven't clearly replaced this talent in a demonstrable way.

But, the only thing I really take exception to is calling any NFL schedule "relaxing." Yes, we had a brutal schedule last year, especially in the first eight games. but it seems to me that the patriots were written off by many as "going nowhere fast" after their 5--11 season in 2000. So, let's not be so sure that there aren't a couple of surprises lurking in that "relaxing" schedule.

 

[Welker83]

It's amazing how you continue to avoid answering the one piece of data that stands out in Walter's report on the Phins:

Their best record is in the month of September!

This completely obliterates your hurricane argument.

My hurricane arguement? check that again and get back to me...

We have an excellent record in septmeber cause it's hot and humid as balls...

And if i wanted to get into an arguement about hurricanes i would say this..if blizzards are so bad and torment your team so much, then how many of your games have been re-scheduled because of them? I know we have had 2 re-scheduled because of hurricanes in the last 2 years... add to that lost practice time and it becomes even more severe...and have you ever been through a hurricane? or more importantly what happens after it? Both of these forces of nature or immense... BUT since you don't get most of your blizzards till after the season, and because hurricane season runs till late november i would have to say Hurricanes have a Larger effect on football than blizzards...

 

[pats1]

Good points all, however, BB will never prognosticate further than today.

I, however, believe that this team is stronger already than last year's team - - even BEFORE we spend that extra $15 million that's lying around - (I believe there will be a combo of extensions and 1 or 2 key FA signings).

Beisel is going to play a DIFFERENT position this year. He'll be at the WILL, instead of the MIKE. Last year he was an underweight, overrunning runt trying to be Ted Johnson. This year he won't be a square peg being forced into a round hole.

The depth at CB in TC is also a big difference versus last year. BB has seriously loaded up - even without a Ty Law.

It's a put-up-or-shut-up year for TBC and Marquise Hill. BB has brought them along slowly (and wisely) and this year they will be under the gun.

The depth at RB is much better. We won't see Zeroue or Heath Evans this year.

The schedule is far easier.

For these reasons, and many more, I do see 13-3 as very possible.

Beisel will actually be playing the JACK, while Bruschi plays the MIKE, Colvin the WILL (ROLB), and Vrabel the SAM (LOLB).

TBC might his chance for playing time this year, but you simply CANNOT bust on Marquise Hill. He's stuck behind the best defensive lineman in the league, and that's not something you can blame on HIM.

 

[Welker83]

I'm glad you're getting an indoor practice facility, wanna know why? So that when you get here on December 10th and its negative 20 degrees, it'll be even easier for my Pats. :singing:

Cool! Go you! except thats kind of the reverse..

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

This is a really stupid topic, but why doesn't one of you fins let us know how many games have been effected by hurricanes since the first year the Dolphins ever played football. Then we can figure out the average of how many hurricanes you guys get per year that disrupt your team.

I would think you guys would be thanking whoever you consider to be your god or lucky star in the sky or messiah or lucky rabbit's foot, that Miami has had such remarkable good fortune to survive for about 70 years since the last superstorm came thru town. You are lucky that Andrew didn't wipe your city off the map, for instance.

I would be thankful for the low amount of hurricanes that have hit Miami, and also glad that the fins were not a championship-quality team at the time, or it would have ruined your season. You are the freakin' first point of contact in hurricane season, yet you have been missed just about EVERY time.

The bad snowstorms really do hit NE EVERY year without fail.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The schedule is the most overlooked aspect in the NFL. I think no one wants to really consider the implications, but a team's schedule has so much to do with how a season turns out. The Patriots got an absolutely killer schedule last year, so bad that I thought it was a deliberate attempt by the NFL to knock them down a notch. You literally couldn't design a schedule last year that would've been tougher. Now, I don't know if it was deliberate or not, but the cold fact is that the various factors of a team's schedule (when they play road games, who they play where and when, who they get coming off of a short week, etc) make a huge difference in where teams end up late in the year. And the Patriots' schedule is so much easier this year.

It's nice to think that how good a team is is the only basis for how they turn out, but it's not so in the NFL.

But, even setting schedule aside, the Patriots look a little better than last year. To me, the Pats are better on offense this year with the additions of Maroney, Jackson, the TEs, Light and (maybe) Caldwell, and the mild loss of Givens. On defense, they may be better if the DBs are healthier and Beisel is better (or Claridge or TBC give them something), but they may not be. Which is not a bad thing, since the defense that ended last year was a very good one (as opposed to the porous unit in the middle of the year). They won't be much worse (McGinest was a nice role player, but he wasn't a core guy on the field anymore), if at all. The defense dominated Denver in Denver in the playoffs; it was the offense that didn't come through in that game.

And can everyone PLEASE stop obsessing about a kicker? Jeez.

completely agree with you re schedule.

count me among the "conspiracy theory" believers who thought the NFL didn't want a three-peat last year in the age of Parity...would make too many other owners look bad ("Gosh, Paul, my fans have taken to not believin' me when I blame our suckin' performance for the last five years on the Salary Cap and the g#d*&n Free Agents. It's unamurrican what those Patriots are doin up there in communist Boston.Can't you do somethin' to fix their wagon?")

While i think you can pick out an obviously tough schedule in advance i have to disagree with the posters who say you can look at a schedule in July and say it's going to end up "relaxing." i'll admit that this year looks a lot better for us on paper during the summer than last year's did, but i just don't know how the packers, bears or jags are going to be playing by the time we meet them. and, we get the vikings in their house on a monday night...it's been a while since they were in the national spotlight. who knows how up they'll be for the game especially if they had a big game against seattle the week before.

and, i'm sorry, but i am obsessing about the kicker. it's "a bad thing" that we had to lose him with no clear replacement on the horizon.

 

[pats1]

and, i'm sorry, but i am obsessing about the kicker. it's "a bad thing" that we had to lose him with no clear replacement on the horizon.

Gostkowski!

Beioli aren't so wrapped up about "replacing" a specific player. It's about how the unit works as a WHOLE. Stephen isn't Adam - he's Stephen. Just as Tom wasn't Drew when Tom came onto the scene. Give the kid a chance - because WE DO NOT KNOW if he COULD be BETTER than Vinatieri! He's a great kicker, and will probably have a better FG % - especially the longer ones.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Gostkowski!

Beioli aren't so wrapped up about "replacing" a specific player. It's about how the unit works as a WHOLE. Stephen isn't Adam - he's Stephen. Just as Tom wasn't Drew when Tom came onto the scene. Give the kid a chance - because WE DO NOT KNOW if he COULD be BETTER than Vinatieri! He's a great kicker, and will probably have a better FG % - especially the longer ones.

OK, OK. we've beaten this horse to death. I hope the kid does great and that he's as clutch as Number Four, whatever his percentage.

Go Pats! Four in Six in 2006!

 

[pats1]

OK, OK. we've beaten this horse to death. I hope the kid does great and that he's as clutch as Number Four, whatever his percentage.

Go Pats! Four in Six in 2006!

Amen.

:eat3:

 

[Welker83]

This is a really stupid topic, but why doesn't one of you fins let us know how many games have been effected by hurricanes since the first year the Dolphins ever played football. Then we can figure out the average of how many hurricanes you guys get per year that disrupt your team.

I would think you guys would be thanking whoever you consider to be your god or lucky star in the sky or messiah or lucky rabbit's foot, that Miami has had such remarkable good fortune to survive for about 70 years since the last superstorm came thru town. You are lucky that Andrew didn't wipe your city off the map, for instance.

I would be thankful for the low amount of hurricanes that have hit Miami, and also glad that the fins were not a championship-quality team at the time, or it would have ruined your season. You are the freakin' first point of contact in hurricane season, yet you have been missed just about EVERY time.

The bad snowstorms really do hit NE EVERY year without fail.

You are right...Thank however up above that i'm still here...

The thing w/ hurricanes is that a majority of them are nothing more than a lot of air...but others can be devastating! When katrina hit florida we thought it was nothing..then it strengthend and destroyed Louisiana. Generally we get hit every year..it just depends on how bad it is..for S. Florida Wilma was the worst because the first two storms softened us up and wilma finished us off... I lost power for two weeks...my company was so desperate we rented cars siphoned out the gas and distributed it so we could stay afloat... curfew was 9 am for almost 2 weeks. No cell phones or landlines worked. The county had to use most of the generators to power the waste systems so that they would not back-up into our homes... crime was bad...all the police officers were at the intersections directing traffic....

The funny thing is that since Andrew it has gotten better. People stock more supplies and now a lot of people have generators. All new houses have to be built w/ storm panels.

I've been through a 24" blizzard while i was in NY..and the snow never scared me...what did was the site of Shed being blown by the wind so ferosiously that it skipped laong the surface... Thats just not natural...

 

[spacecrime]

Gostkowski!

WE DO NOT KNOW if he COULD be BETTER than Vinatieri!

It woukld be hard for Gostkowski in his rookie year to be better than Vinatieri was in his prime. However, Vinatieiri wasn't that good to start, and was nearly cut by Parcells IIRC. It is not to much of a stretch to say the Gostkowski has a shot at having a better rooke year than AV did.

One thing I can say, though, and that is in a few years Gostkowski ought to be better than AV will be in a few years.

Remember the creed: Better to let a player go a year too early than a year too late.

 

[PlattsFan]

While i think you can pick out an obviously tough schedule in advance i have to disagree with the posters who say you can look at a schedule in July and say it's going to end up "relaxing." i'll admit that this year looks a lot better for us on paper during the summer than last year's did, but i just don't know how the packers, bears or jags are going to be playing by the time we meet them. and, we get the vikings in their house on a monday night...it's been a while since they were in the national spotlight. who knows how up they'll be for the game especially if they had a big game against seattle the week before.

Yeah, I agree with this in general. I think "relaxing" is a pretty strong overstatement. It's hard to know what teams will be surprising ones. But you can be pretty sure which ones are the truly powerful teams going in, the ones you just can count on being really tough. And it ain't the Vikes. "Surprising" teams may beat you, but they won't expose you and/or beat you up like the truly good teams, generally.

Besides, a lot of surprise teams at midseason are products of their schedule (I'm sounding like a one-note Johnny here about the schedule, I know, but just watch for it this year ...)

And the big thing about the Pats schedule last year was not just the overall quality of teams, but the brutal layout of road games, short weeks, etc. And that's way better this year.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Yeah, I agree with this in general. I think "relaxing" is a pretty strong overstatement. It's hard to know what teams will be surprising ones. But you can be pretty sure which ones are the truly powerful teams going in, the ones you just can count on being really tough. And it ain't the Vikes. "Surprising" teams may beat you, but they won't expose you and/or beat you up like the truly good teams, generally.

Besides, a lot of surprise teams at midseason are products of their schedule (I'm sounding like a one-note Johnny here about the schedule, I know, but just watch for it this year ...)

And the big thing about the Pats schedule last year was not just the overall quality of teams, but the brutal layout of road games, short weeks, etc. And that's way better this year.

completely agree re last year's schedule...i go so far as to join the conspiracy theorists who think the NFL was trying to stop a Parity-era Threepeat by loading up a Bataan Death March for the Pats at the beginning of the season last year...

Glad to find someone to agree that calling any NFL schedule "very relaxing" is inappropriate. I just try to imagine how BB would react if I said "Hey, Coach, that's a very relaxing schedule you have this year." I think he'd do that roll-of-the-eye thing he does when a reporter asks a dumb question, shoot me that glare that would stop a charging lion, shake his head and walk away without saying a word...

OK, I'll concede that I may be pushing it when I cite the Vikings...

 

[Chevagus]

The troll is totally out to lunch. In 2003, I don't remember a single game in NE that took place without blinding rain or snow. Every winter we get blizzards, and it rains way more in NE than the drought-stricken south.

Miami is amazingly untouched by hurricanes, except in the last couple seasons. If you look on the map, you can't even believe that all those storms normally miss Miami. It is almost like Don Shula runs the Weather Committee, the way NE gets bad weather and Miami is always sunny.

Hurricanes may be infrequent but tropical storms less so and try telling me that Miami doesn't get about 5 thunderstorms per week. They may only last 20 minutes but they occur mainly during the morning and afternoon hours and produce lightning which obviously would require people to head indoors. Yes, tons of practices are lost. Apologies to T-Shirt earlier, I misapprehended his post but as a general principal I still think way more practice time is lost due to electrical storms than a snow storms. It's a good question why it wasn't done earlier.

 

[Chevagus]

It's amazing how you continue to avoid answering the one piece of data that stands out in Walter's report on the Phins:

Their best record is in the month of September!

This completely obliterates your hurricane argument.

Hardly, it's not like all practices are canceled because of storms but several are. Since many practices still take place the Dolphins are used to practicing in the heat and humidity and that's something many other teams can't prepare for. (cramps, dehydration etc.).

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Hardly, it's not like all practices are canceled because of storms but several are. Since many practices still take place the Dolphins are used to practicing in the heat and humidity and that's something many other teams can't prepare for. (cramps, dehydration etc.).

Good point about the humidity - it gets hot many places in the US in August (training camp / exhibition season) and Sept. but the humidity is quite another thing altogether. I was surprised that I felt the humidity was much worse when I lived in Wash D.C. than when I lived in Atlanta. Then again ATL is 1000 ft above sea level. Hard to prepare a (visiting) football team for the humidity unless you had the team practice in a Turkish steam bath.

 

[feelthepain]

Dolphins | Team could be improved due to new practice facility
Tue, 11 Jul 2006 19:41:25 -0700
Vic Carucci, of <A href="http://www.kffl.com/link/156">NFL.com, reports the Miami Dolphins new practice facility may be a large contributing factor to the improvement of the team. The Dolphins have been able to practice indoors in the new 96,000 square-foot bubble, where in the past the team was forced to cancel workouts due to bad weather or high temperatures and humidity.

Hmmmm, this is interesting.

 

[Jacky Roberts]

Hmmmm, this is interesting.

Only a complete moron would think the weather in Florida is worse than the weather in New England. Don't they call Florida the "Sunshine State"? Hysterical.