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2/28 Mock Offseason and Draft

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mayoclinic, Feb 28, 2009.

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  1. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So, now that everyone is depressed about how little we got for Cassel (and I've changed my avatar, removing Aaron Curry now that we don't have even a dream of landing him), here's a thought at how the rest of our offseason and draft could look:

    1. Trade pick #23 to Carolina for Julius Peppers (offer #34, then up it to #23 when they baulk). Peppers would move to 3-4 OLB, either combining with Adalius Thomas to form a killer rotation or allowing AD to move inside to SILB. Either way, or LBs suddenly look much better than the Jets, and the Cassel trade doesn't look so bad anymore. Sign Peppers to a long-term deal (somewhere around $10M/year, which would pay him as a top-5 OLB). Carolina is in cap hell, and a 1st round pick would likely get it done.
    2. Plug holes in the secondary. Ideally, sign UFA CB Leigh Bodden and UFA SS Sean Jones. Bringing back one or more of the Sanders is a backup option.
    3. Add a moderately priced FA WR for depth (Mike Furrey, Mark Clayton, etc.). I'll put Clayton down here for now, put substitute whomever you want.
    4. Possible low-range resignings (3): Heath Evans (FB), Russ Hochstein (OG/C), Ray Ventrone (WR/S). All 3 have value and would be worth keeping if we could resign them for relatively cheap.
    5. Do not resign (8-10): Rodney Harrison S, Junior Seau ILB, Roosevelt Colvin OLB, Larry Izzo ILB/ST, Tank Williams S, Deltha ONeal CB, Wesley Britt OT, Lamont Jordan RB. Also possibly James and Lewis Sanders depending on who we find in FA. I see Mike Wright leaving for a bigger salary than we can afford, much as I would like to keep him.
    6. Players under contract to fight it out in TC for roster/PS (if eligible) spots (18): MGutierrez (QB). BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB), Matt Slater (WR/S/ST), Tyson DeVree (TE), Brad Listorti (TE), Bill Yates (OG), Brad Connelly (OG/C), Ryan Wendell (C), Titus Adams (DT), LeKevin Smith (DE/DT), Tully Banta-Cain (LB), Vince Redd (LB), Eric Alexander (LB), Angelo Craig (LB), Darrell Robertson (LB), Bo Ruud (LB), Antwain Spann (S/CB), Mike Richardson (CB).

    2009 Draft:

    - 2(34): Connor Barwin, OLB (Cincinnati) - 6'4", 256#, 4.66. "The next Mike Vrabel". Would move AD to SILB and have Woods start at OLB opposite Peppers for a year while Barwin learns the ropes. Eventually, would have Peppers/Barwin/Crable as our main OLB trio, and Mayo/Thomas/Guyton as our core ILBs. Clint Sintim might also be an option (here or at 47), in which case we could move him to SILB and keep AD at OLB.
    - 2(47): Sean Smith, S/CB (Utah) - 6'3", 215#, 4.47. Smith is large and fast with great range and could play both CB and FS. Could go for a "pure" CB like Alphonso Smith, DJ Moore or Darius Butler here, or a "pure" S like Louis Delmas, Patrick Chung or Will Moore. One of those 7 should be available at 47. With Hobbs/Bodden/Wheatley/Wilhite at CB and Meriweather/Jones at S, would end up with a much stronger secondary than in 2008. (Note: If Barwin is gone before #34, we could go DB at 34 and LB at 47 instead of the other way around).
    - 2(58): Jarren Gilbert, DE (San Jose St.) - 6'5", 288#, 4.87. Powerful, athletic DL who could potential take over from Richard Seymour after 2009. C Eric Wood might also be an option here. Could also trade this pack into 2010.
    - 3(89): Trevor Canfield, OG (Cincinnati) - 6'4, 307#, 5.15. Tough interior lineman with a nasty demeanor to backup and eventually replace Stephen Neal. Would be great opposite Mankins.
    - 3(97): Sammie Lee Hill, DT/DE (Spillman) - 6'4", 329#, 5.11. Highly athletic enormous player who has played DE, TE and basketball. True DT to back up Wilfork.
    - 4(122) Mike Wallace, WR (Ole Miss) - 6', 199#, 4.33, 40" vertical. Speedy, athletic WR in the Greg Jennings mold, with a hint of Deion Branch thrown in.
    - 5(150s) Kevin Huber, P (Cincinnati) - 6'2", 220#, 4.85. Best punter in nation, gives us a Mike Scifres type of punter as a major upgrade from Hanson. Particularly good at pinning opponents inside the 20, and at getting great hang time.
    - 6(180s) Lee Robinson, LB, Alcorn St. - 6'3", 249#. Long-term depth at ILB spot behind Mayo and Guyton. PS guy.

    2009 roster (new FAs in italics, rookies in bold):

    QB (3) TBrady, KO'Connell, MGutierrez
    RB (5) LMaroney, SMorris, FTaylor, KFaulk, BJ Green-Ellis
    WR (6) RMoss, WWelker, MClayton, MWallace, SAiken, MSlater
    TE (5) BWatson, CBaker, DThomas, TDeVrees, BListorti
    OT (4) MLight, NKaczur, MLevoir, RO'Callaghan
    OG/C (8) LMankins, DKoppen, SNeal, TCanfield, RHochstein, BYates, DConnelly, RWendell

    DT (4) VWilfork, SLHill, LSmith, TAdams
    DE (4) RSeymour, TWarren, JGilbert, JGreen, LSmith
    OLB (8) JPeppers, PWoods, SCrable, CBarwin, VRedd, TBanta-Cain, DRobertson, ACraig
    ILB (6) JMayo, AThomas, GGuyton, TBruschi; EAlexander, LRobinson
    S (5) BMeriweather, SJones, SSmith, ASpann, RVentrone
    CB (5) EHobbs, LBodden, TWheatley, GWilhite, MRichardson

    P (2) KHuber, TMalone
    K (1) SGostkowski

    That would give us a pretty decent 66 man roster to start TC with in my book.

    Again, if you have individual preferences at a position (e.g., Delmas over Sean Smith at S, or a particular FA WR) feel free to substitute.

    Any thoughts?
     
  2. Warren94

    Warren94 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Great job.

    two guys of interest that I hope we target is will Johnson from Michigan and Chung from Oregon is starting to grow on me.

    Like the canfield and smith pick. Saw many of Utes games living in the desert.
     
  3. Warren94

    Warren94 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    one other guy Marlon Favorite from LSU. long arms nice backup to Wilfork.
     
  4. Warren94

    Warren94 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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  5. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This would be a pats dream scenario, would guess that our CB's would move up a couple of steps from piss poor to respectible and our red zone D would not be in the bottom tier of the league.. a lot has to happen to have this all fall into place, but the rush to move Cassel and Vrabel signals that there is a lot of stuff going on in the background.... stay tuned.
     
  6. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Michael Clayton re-signed with TB (reportedly 5 years for $24M, which is way too high for what he's produced), so scratch that thought, but there are lots of other JAGs out there.

    I don't think it's terribly far-fetched. Whatever else, we need add at least one CB in FA or the draft, and 2-3 safeties (whether FA, draft, or re-signing our own FAs). We need to add at least 1-2 WR as well. And we need an improved pass rush. It's hard to believe that we will fill all those needs through the draft - we have around 12 picks, but realistically we won't have rookies filling in at all those key positions.

    The only "long shot" is Peppers. He's not essential, but he is the best option that we have of getting a top pass rusher to round out our defense.
     
  7. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    As a wild alternative to trading for Peppers, now that we have cap space and are flush with picks does anyone think it might make sense to make a run at Terrell Suggs from Baltimore? He's 26 and next to DeMarcus Ware is arguable the best 3-4 OLB in the league. His franchise tag is $10.2M.

    Consider the following:

    - Sign Suggs to a long-term offer sheet. This would require giving up our 2009 1st round pick (#23) and our 2010 1st round pick (probably somewhere between 28-32).
    - We would have #34, 47 and 58 remaining in the 2nd round and probably #89 and 97 in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft. Trade one of the 2nd round picks back for a 2010 1st round pick (easy to do with #34, probably would get something extra; probably doable with #47) to recoup our lost 2010 1st round pick.

    Getting a 3-4 OLB of Suggs' caliber, at age 26, would be a tremendous coup. He would be reunited with Adalius Thomas, who would likely move inside. Suggs-Thomas-Mayo-Woods/Crable/Rookie would be an amazing combo.

    Thoughts?
     
  8. Mark Morse

    Mark Morse PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #15 Jersey

    Tip of the hat on great analysis ... I don't agree with everything and here are my alternatives.

    I don't think we pay for Peppers and use #23 to take Clay Matthews LB USC. His dad played for BB in Cleveland and right now he is one of the fastest movers on the draft board. He could be a fixture on defense for 10+ years.

    I think they go CB next at #34 Alphonso Smith, Butler, and Sean Smith are the choices in that order. If none are taken at that point you might see a trade down.

    Barwin or Delmas would be the next choice.

    I like Lawrence Sidbury as a sleeper selection at #97. This DE/LB is another fast riser.

    I like the Gilbert, Wallace, Huber picks. Look at the possibility of signing Mike Leach LS from Denver or drafting Jake Ingram from Hawaii.
     
  9. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks for the feedback.

    I like Matthews but like Barwin more. Bigger, better suited to 3-4 scheme, better measurables, great intangibles. Matthews has "bloodlines". Both have essentially one year of experience.

    I'm happy with one LB and at least one DB at this point. Not sure whether we need a CB or S more - depends on what we do in FA. With Sanders resigned, if we signed a CB like Bodden or Greer then I would opt for one good S prospect in the 2nd round. My preference would be Sean Smith > Louis Delmas > Patrick Chung = William Moore. One of those should be available at #47.

    Sidbury at 97 could be an option. With comp picks, we may have additional picks in the 4th and/or 4th rounds. I like the idea of Leach or Jake Ingram in the 7th as a LS.
     
  10. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey

    I'd much rather have Terrel suggs rather than Peppers. He's younger and has more experience at being LB in the NFL. I have no doubt that Peppers would probably do a good job. He may even do a fantastic job. But youth and experience would be my main concern.
    I'd be first in line 2 give up this years 23 and next years 32 for him.
     
  11. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here's what a revised version of my offseason/mock would look like, if we went after Terrell Suggs (new changes in red):

     
  12. Seneschal2

    Seneschal2 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Mayo, another excellent job!

    I've been in the Suggs over Peppers camp for a while now, but usually resist parting with first round picks (I know you can relate). However, this latest scenario suits me fine as long as we're still able to select some terrific Pats prospects, while retaining our 2010 first. Most of your prospects are acceptable, although my personal preferences would be:

    #34 - Alphonso Smith. There's a slight possibility because of his height and 4.5 -- he slides a little. No binky here, just like to have his skills in the secondary, where I know he'd make a difference this season. My #1 want going into this draft is to add a playmaker to the DB corps. Barwin represents the future and is a solid choice, but I simply value Alphonso higher (especially with Suggs on board).

    #58 - Yes, I'll take a Safety -- with Chung as my favorite player in this draft.

    #89 - Yes on the OG too, although personal preference is different.

    Value picks the rest of the way, and I do like Huber and Robinson.
     
  13. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks. Can't argue with your picks. If we don't get a solid CB in FA (Bodden or Greer) then I would prioritize a CB at 34 - either Sean Smith, Alphonso Smith, DJ Moore or Darius Butler. Alphonso is as good a choice at this point as any.
     
  14. Ochmed Jones

    Ochmed Jones Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    Everybody is describing A Smith as more quick than fast and possessing superior ball skils. This is the prototype Pats CB.
     
  15. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I have no problem at all with Alphonso Smith if we go for a "prototypical" Pats CB on the first day.

    If we get a quality FA CB like Leigh Bodden then I'm not sure we need to spend a first day pick on CB. And if we want positional flexibility and upside then Sean Smith is an attractive option. But Alphonso Smith is a great option, no doubt about it.
     
  16. JoeShmoe

    JoeShmoe 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I would literally wet myself if it all played out like this but I think its a 1st and 3rd or 2 2nds for Peppers. Also wonder if Laverneus Coles could be on the radar at WR
     
  17. Brady'sButtBoy

    Brady'sButtBoy 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    #12 Jersey

    Suggs for our Number 32 in 2010?!! Yes, yes, yes! My favorite first round pick.:singing:
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2009
  18. Irish Hooligan

    Irish Hooligan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    :ditto::agree::yeahthat: Well done, sir.
     
  19. DW Toys

    DW Toys In the Starting Line-Up

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    Mayo, Great stuff as usual. Like all the picks. I agree Bodden would eliminate the pressing need for a CB (if we picked a little better last draft we would not have to be in search of another CB). Some scout sold BB and SP a bill of goods on a second for Terrance "Ellis Hobbs II but only injury prone" Wheatly and 4th rounder Wilhite. This is not just my opinion, but most with more knowledge than the little I possess say they were weak options at best. Not BB quality. Who knows how they will turn out but throw them in the Mike Richardson JAG pool as we are looking for another CB even as we speak in FA? It seems like we should pay a 27 year old proven CB (Bodden) who knows our system a little more than Springs. Contribute a little of the first round dollars that a #23 CB would cost us.

    I would love Peppers. It would save a very mundane and shocking FA season. I hope that is the plan.

    I have thought of a plan "B" might be an option. We are all looking for the next Vrabel and have pegged Barwin as that guy. Nice pick but here goes....A few years ago in 06 we all wanted Chris Gocong. He is 25 years old. He is 6' 2" and 263 and fits the Vrabel mold with a little more speed and quickness. He is just starting to get his pass rush down. He is at the same stage as Vrabel was with Pitt only Gocong is a starter in Philly.

    Philly has a big problem right now. They lost RB Buckhalter and TE LJ Smith (not signed yet) to FA . McNabb is pouting because there is no help on the way and they have millions in CAP money. They are sitting on it. The fans are screaming for them to do something, anything. It is a PR nightmare when they lost Dawkins let alone Buckhalter, Considine and Sheppard. They might be ripe.

    We just signed RB Taylor and TE Baker. I say swap Maroney (the Eagles are in the market for a bigger running back to split time with Westbrook and we know now, Maroney has to have shared carries as he is not a 25 carry back in this league) and Dave Thomas(who is decent but won't get past Watson and Baker) for Gocong and the Philly third rounder? It will be a reasonable trade for both teams and the pieces fit. Philly gets two needs with a "name" coming into the fold, and we free up some roster questions and get...the next Vrabel? Thoughts?

    DW Toys
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2009
  20. Irish Hooligan

    Irish Hooligan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Dude. This thread to me is hotter than Mila Kunis! Great idea. I love that.:singing:
     
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