2:00 left 80 yards to go; offense or defense

[IcyPatriot]

I wanted to add that yes ... it was fun wondering when the defense would create a turnover on the 2001-2004 teams. I think we are getting back to that with our secondary ... they have room to improve and will.

 

[maverick4]

With TB at the helm it is a easy choice for me the offense....and I am a defensive guy. Maybe I still have the SB fresh in my mind from a couple of years ago

Maybe you need to fix your memory.

Brady DID have the ball at the end of that game, needing to get a FG with 90 seconds left and all 3 timeouts... and the offense blew it.

 

[letekro]

Re: 2:00 left 80 yards to go;offense or defense

I would think any team at any level would rather have the lead than be behind, regardless of possession of the ball. No matter how good your offense is, nobody successfully drives 80 yards for a touchdown in two minutes more often than not.

It's not the 60s anymore guys. The rules have been changed to benefit the passing game. In the 2 minute, you have 4 downs to get 10 yards, typically against a prevent defense and a tired pass rush. Even mediocre QB's can do this with regularity if they have TOs. But doesn't the answer depend on who you are playing? Obviously, with Manning on the other side, you would go with the offense; facing the Trent Dilfer Ravens you would go with the defense.

 

[Spiral]

Maybe you need to fix your memory.

Brady DID have the ball at the end of that game, needing to get a FG with 90 seconds left and all 3 timeouts... and the offense blew it.

Also, didn't Brady throw a pick on the Patriots' last possession in the 06 AFCCG?

My answer might be more situational. If it were against the Colts, then I'd probably pick Brady, because I know that the Colts are going to get at least one PI call during that final drive.

 

[PrairiePat]

Maybe you need to fix your memory.

Brady DID have the ball at the end of that game, needing to get a FG with 90 seconds left and all 3 timeouts... and the offense blew it.

That would be *30* seconds left, Mav, huge difference.

Also, this poll means nothing without context - it totally matters which team and QB is on offense (I'll assume the Pats/Brady here), and who the opposing team and QB are (Colts/Manning? Saints/Brees? Browns/Quinn?).

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

That would be *30* seconds left, Mav, huge difference.

Also, this poll means nothing without context - it totally matters which team and QB is on offense (I'll assume the Pats/Brady here), and who the opposing team and QB are (Colts/Manning? Saints/Brees? Browns/Quinn?).

This may be heresy but when the Colts ran that running play with 1:10 left and he got stopped at the 1 yard line, I was thinking "let him score" ala Shanahan in the Super Bowl. The Pats would have gotten the ball with a minute left needing only a FG to win it. I can't remember if they had any time outs left but I was more confident in Brady driving into field goal range with a minute left rather than stopping the Colts at the Colts with Manning milking the clock. There are only so many McGinest plays .......most of the time and against a manning led offense I would have preferred Brady on offense with a minute left.....

 

[MoLewisrocks]

That would be *30* seconds left, Mav, huge difference.

Also, this poll means nothing without context - it totally matters which team and QB is on offense (I'll assume the Pats/Brady here), and who the opposing team and QB are (Colts/Manning? Saints/Brees? Browns/Quinn?).

LOL Somebody's agenda just got owned.

And your right about context, it's always crucial. The way our OL was playing vs. the way the Giants D was performing on the evening Mav lives to misremember and rehash, it was nearly a wash. But in a wash I'd always take my chances with 12.

 

[plk]

I believe that the vast majority of football officials really want to get it right. They are professionals who have other careers and other lives, and I am sure they hate having replay after replay show that they blew a call. They don't seem to have the God complex that all to many baseball umpires have.

As it stands, in this particular case the official pretty much has to make a call even if he is screened and he knows that he doesn't really know. He probably knows that he is unlikely to get help from another official. The situation would be greatly improved if officials were able to say that they did not see and ask for a videotape review.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Hmmm...

One of the best two-minute quarterbacks ever, along with one of the best slot receivers ever, and one of the most dominating receivers ever.... or.... a defense that has collapsed down the stretch in the playoffs since 2006.

???

 

[makewayhomer]

No matter how good your offense is, nobody successfully drives 80 yards for a touchdown in two minutes more often than not.

for the love of god, this.

anyone who says otherwise has zero knowledge of probabilities or historical stats

the best offense in the HISTORY OF THE NFL, the 2007 Patriots, averaged 3.37 points per drive, and .424 TD's per drive

and their average starting field position was their own 32

an average offense scores (and ergo, average defense allows) much closer to .2 TD's per drive. and that is with a an average starting field position of your own 30, not 20

now, in a TD or bust scenario, the average PPD will likely decrease and perhaps the TDPD increase, but unless you are talking about an exceptional offense, not to above .5 per drive

here are this years drive stats

 

[West Philly Patriot]

Of course Faulk and Watson are the only guys that scare me on critical drives because they are a fumble waiting to happen.

You have to be kidding with this statement! Besides brady faulk is the next guy i trust the most on this offense in a clutch situation including welker and randy. He is a champion and has proved to be one of the best 3rd down backs in the history of the game.

How many tight situations does he have to bail us out of? Geez!

 

[Synovia]

Re: 2:00 left 80 yards to go;offense or defense

I chose defense. I just feel playing the averages, that teams more often do NOT score touchdowns on drives, even when they have plenty of time.

Those averages change pretty drastically when teams are playing 4 down football instead of 3 down football.

 

[Synovia]

for the love of god, this.

anyone who says otherwise has zero knowledge of probabilities or historical stats

the best offense in the HISTORY OF THE NFL, the 2007 Patriots, averaged 3.37 points per drive, and .424 TD's per drive
now, in a TD or bust scenario, the average PPD will likely decrease and perhaps the TDPD increase, but unless you are talking about an exceptional offense, not to above .5 per drive

here are this years drive stats

All of which are completely irrelevant, because when you put a team in the 2 minute drill at the end of the game, the option to punt goes away. You have 4 downs to convert at that point, not 3.

You'd expect ATLEAST a 30% decrease in failure simply because of the extra down in each series.

If the average team scores a TD on .42% of drives, you'd expect it to go to somewhere around 60% of the time with 4 downs. Now, thats still not high enough, because during normal drives (which the .424 is based on), teams are willing to settle for a field goal, and you're considering this a failure.


I woudln't be surprised if looking at teams down by more than 4 points, getting the ball with less than 3:00 left, score more than 70% of the time.

 

[HarkDawg]

bad spot he had the 1st

 

[makewayhomer]

All of which are completely irrelevant, because when you put a team in the 2 minute drill at the end of the game, the option to punt goes away. You have 4 downs to convert at that point, not 3.

You'd expect ATLEAST a 30% decrease in failure simply because of the extra down in each series.

If the average team scores a TD on .42% of drives, you'd expect it to go to somewhere around 60% of the time with 4 downs. Now, thats still not high enough, because during normal drives (which the .424 is based on), teams are willing to settle for a field goal, and you're considering this a failure.

you are way overestimating the change. if teams truly could increase their TD% rate by 30%, I promise you the position of Punter would be eliminated from NFL rosters.

but anyways, below is the proof:

I woudln't be surprised if looking at teams down by more than 4 points, getting the ball with less than 3:00 left, score more than 70% of the time.

advancednflstats.com can be used for this. you are wrong by an incredible amount.

for instance, take todays Detroit vs Cleveland game. Detroit got the ball, down 6, with 1:54 to go, at their own 12. teams in this situation, using historical results, will win on average 21 % of the time. this will be a bit higher as you give better field position and more time, but 70% is lololololo

or another game from this week

Jax vs Buffalo

Jax got the ball at their own 32, down 5, with 6:12 to go. teams in this situation win 24% of the time

 

[stattry]

Peyton Manning is on the other team, offense;

pretty much every other team in the NFL, defense