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17 Almost Locks On Offense

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgteich, Jul 2, 2013.

  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm bored.
    Let's discuss the roster at this point, between camps.

    If all these players are healthy and producing, I wouldn't expect a lot of reps from others. Of course, depth, ST and development is what the end of the roster is about. For example, I certainly expect significant production from wide receivers not on this list.

    OFFENSE (17)
    QB (1) Brady
    TE (2) Gronkowski, Ballard
    RB (3) Ridley, Vereen, Washington
    WR (3) Amendola, Dobson, Bryce
    OL (6) Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Connolly, Vollmer, Cannon
    ST (2) Slater, Edelman

    So, we have room for 6-9 additional positions on offense.
  2. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You can add Mallett to the list.
  3. Tunescribe

    Tunescribe PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm curious why Bryce would be considered a "lock" at this point.
  4. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Every player the Patriots have drafted in the first four rounds under Belichick has made the payroll Week 1 of his rookie season (some on IR, but nevertheless on the payroll).

    The only fourth rounder the Patriots cut in his rookie season was Kareem Brown, but that was in the sui generis year of 2007.
  5. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I would say that the following are virtual locks for whatever reasons (expectations for this year's club based on past performance, draft status, financial commitment, salary cap implications, etc.)

    QB (1) - Tom Brady
    RB (2) - Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen
    TE (1) - Rob Gronkowski
    WR (3) - Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce
    OL (4) - Nate Solder, Logan Mankins, Ryan Wendell, Sebastian Vollmer
    ST (1) - Matthew Slater

    After that I would place the following five players in a 'highly likely to make the roster' status, but not a lock:

    QB (1) - Ryan Mallett
    TE (1) - Jake Ballard
    OL (3) - Marcus Cannon, Dan Connolly, Will Svitek


    In my opinion the rest are fighting for one of nine roster spots, with varying degrees of likelihood. (These numbers are off the top of my head so apologies in advance for those that don't add up correctly).

    QB - Tim Tebow (25%)
    RB/FB - Leon Washington (75%); one of either Brandon Bolden or LeGarrette Blount (75%); the other of Bolden/Blount (25%); one of James Develin, Ben Bartholomew, George Winn (25%)
    TE - Daniel Fells, Michael Hoomanawanui, Zach Sudfeld: choose two at 90%, all all three at 75%; Brandon Ford (10%)
    WR - Michael Jenkins, Donald Jones and Julian Edelman: pick two (90%); between whichever of those three gets left out, plus the rest - Kenbrell Thompkins, Kamar Aiken, Lavelle Hawkins, Mark Harrison - 20%
    OT - one of Kevin Haslam or Elvis Fisher (20%)
    G/C - Nick McDonald has the best chance of the rest to be the 8th OL, followed by Markus Zusevics; the rest (Josh Kline, Tyronne Green, R.J. Mattes, Chris McDonald, Matt Stankiewitch) combined might add up to 20%
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
  6. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Methinks the Pats will have more than three WRs. ;)
  7. betterthanthealternative

    betterthanthealternative Rookie

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    Arghh.The JMT prediction was looking easily manageable. Now, they need two more slots for WR's, coming from where? Blast!
  8. fnordcircle

    fnordcircle tfw not enough helmets PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Considering that the Patriots have cut people like Bodden or Love that most would have considered, at the time of their being cut, likely to be with the team for a while I'm not sure I consider Ballard a lock at all.

    Same for Washington and Edelman. I'm almost positive those guys will be on the 53 on week 1 but I don't consider them as much of a lock as I consider the others listed in the OP.
  9. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The definition of "lock" basically means "barring something completely unforeseen and unpredictable."

    Kyle Love would have been a lock were it not for his diabetes.

    Of course, Hern-idiot would have been a lock were it not for his "extracurriculars."
  10. Ive_Killed_People

    Ive_Killed_People Rookie

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    Tebow is a lock. There is no way in hell BB goes out on the limb to sign him and he doesnt make the roster.
  11. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Tebow is a better prospect than Kafka, pue and simple.

  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Now The Rest Of The Story

    OFFENSE (24)
    QB (2) Brady, Mallett/Tebow
    TE (4) Gronkowski, Ballard, Fells/Hooman/Sudfield (choose 2)
    RB (4) Ridley, Vereen, Washington, Blount/Bolden
    WR (4) Amendola, Dobson, Bryce, Jenkins/Jones/Hawkins
    OL (8) Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Connolly, Vollmer, Cannon, Svitek/McDonald/Zusevics (choose 2)
    ST (2) Slater, Edelman

    Barring further injuries, I think that we will have the above 24 positions.

    Obviously, we could have a 25th and/or 26th player on offense, choosing among the losers of the battles. Many of you have already assumed Tebow as the 25th offense player. Some of us would prefer an additional offensive lineman, running back, wide receiver or even TE.

    The great thing is that there is solid competition for all the backup spots.
  13. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa Rookie

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    Re: Now The Rest Of The Story

    I think we have 25 on offense. No Tebow. Sudfeld over Fells and Hooman as the back up te's. Jones as the 4th wr in your set-up. I think Bolden and Blount both make it. We're gonna be running more. Svitek and McDonald as the 7th and 8th OL.
  14. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I was bout to say those were just the so-called locks ... oops.

    Commenting while answering the phone, responding to e-mails, and preparing for a conference call can be quite hazardous to accuracy.

    :doh:

    Thanks for the heads up, let me go back and fix that...
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2013
  15. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Now The Rest Of The Story

    You've chosen 24, rather than 25. You only have 3 TE's.

  16. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thinking about the receivers, I wonder if there will be some delineation based on size, to fill in a specific role or style of play.

    I'll be very curious to see how much of a shift there may be away from the so-called smurf receiving corps that the Pats have had in the past when the final roster cuts are announced.


    6'4", 215 - Michael Jenkins
    6'3", 230 - Mark Harrison
    6'3", 200 - Aaron Dobson
    6'2", 215 - Kamar Aiken

    6'0", 210 - Matthew Slater
    6'0", 205 - Donald Jones
    5'11", 205 - Josh Boyce

    6'0", 195 - Kenbrell Thompkins
    5'11", 195 - Danny Amendola
    5'11", 195 - Lavelle Hawkins
    5'10", 198 - Julian Edelman
  17. blackglass3

    blackglass3 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't see Tebow getting cut. Maybe they start listing him as OW like Dennard Robinson in Jacksonville. But he'll be here.

    Has anyone seen or heard anything about Donald Jones? I have hopes for him. I don't know if they're high hopes, but hopes nonetheless. I'm thinking Amendola, Dobson, Jones, Edelman, and Boyce. I have absolutely nothing to base that on.
  18. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Bodden had what ended up being a career-ending back injury. Put that (along with Love's diabetes and Hernandez's murder charges) in the "unforeseen circumstance" category.
  19. Mack Herron

    Mack Herron Rookie

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    Injuries are a big part of the equation of course, and when last seen Ballard was still limping. It might be more interesting to predict the so-called lock who doesn't make it.
  20. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, if Cannon wins the starting RG spot and if the younger interior linemen perform well enough to be trusted as backups, cutting Connolly would save $1M this season and then $4M next season. Outside of Boyce (who would be the popular choice but I think would end up on IR before being cut), my pick is Connolly.
  21. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Jones is no superstar but he wasn't being counted on to be one - at least not before Gronk's surgery, and subsequent events. On the plus side for his sake Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick have been replaced by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

    This was very good article on Jones, a very detailed look back at his time in Buffalo, and a (very optimistic) look at his possibilities with the Patriots:

    Donald Jones, New England Patriots and the Importance of Finding Your Fit | Pre Snap Reads
  22. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Jones took part in the "opportunity" work after practices this summer, which isn't a good sign for a fourth year player. Although, that could just be him back in the swing of things after ending up on IR with some unknown (although I know I read what it was somewhere) medical condition last season. One thing that really helps Jones is that if he isn't in the top few WRs, then his ST play should help his case. He had 10 ST tackles in 2010 before taking a bigger role on offense the past two seasons. I think your list looks good, with my presumed top 3 of Amendola, Dobson, and Edelman, the developmental guy in Boyce, and Jones as a do-everything backup. The big thing that would drastically change that is if Jenkins is one of the top 3 receivers, in which case I think either Jones would be gone or they'd keep 6 real WRs. If Jenkins beats out Jones for the #4 spot, I still think they keep Jones due to his ST play.
  23. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Two from each group works for me. :)


  24. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Go look at Jones' numbers. Then, take his numbers against the Patriots out and look again.

    Unless he's been playing one hell of a game of possum against pretty much every team not named the New England Patriots to this point in his career, he's not going to be making the team.
  25. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think that's a whole lot of "ifs" to count on to be able to move on from Connelly (coincidentally just about everyone's "lock" to be our center of the future last season) prior to the 2013 season.

    I do however, think that Connelly could be replaced prior to next season--especially since they may be due for a higher round offensive lineman pick in the draft, not to mention possibly waiting to see if Wendell is resigned first.
  26. Nunchucks

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    I don't think Tebow is a lock at all, he has little chance to make the team, IMO. We probably will see Sudfield and Hoomanamanwowai(sp) as the other two TEs (Gronk and Ballard).

    Jenkins looks like he is going to get every opportunity to win a roster spot, so he is probably in as well. That would give us Amendola, Jenkins, Dobson, Bryce, Edelmen.................slater. Maybe Jones comes in and fights for a spot or one of the other guys that I can't remember. not enough coffee yet.

    RBs will see Ridley, Vereen, Washington as definite locks. Blount and Boldin will battle it out for the 4th spot and the Patriots could keep 5.
  27. Armchair Quarterback

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    Mallett will be on the team, no way they go into the season with only Tebow to back up Brady. Connolly could be a possible cut. You never know what you're getting with a 30 yo and over FA so I wouldn't consider Washington a lock but he should make it. I also wouldn't consider Boyce a lock and Bryce has no chance.

    QB: Brady, Mallett
    RB: Ridley, Vereen
    WR: Amendola, Dobson, Edelman
    TE: Gronk, Ballard
    OL: Solder, Vollmer, Wendell, Mankins, Cannon,
    ST: Slater (WR)
  28. Brady6

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    Didn't they cut the TE with the last name Smith? I forget his first name but he was a 4th rounder wasn't he?
  29. Uncle Rico

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  30. Brady6

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    I have to disagree with this. I think Jones makes the team. He reminds of a younger Jabar Gaffney capable of playing inside, outside and occasionally getting down field.

    He would make a very good 4th WR on this roster because he can backup at X, Y or Z. Can't think of another WR on the current roster you can say that about.

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