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12 Reasons why High Unemployment will continue

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, Oct 27, 2009.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    No, these aren't my reasons. I read them on Mish's Global Economic Analysis. I like reading this guy's analysis. He seems to favor moderate non-partisan economic policy. Here's what he has to say;

    "There Is No Mystery

    Of course we know why job growth has slowed. Here are 12 good reasons.

    1. We consumed more than we produced for a decade. Consumers are deep in debt and need to take care of their balance sheets.

    2. We built enough houses for 15 years in a 5 year window.

    3. People thought home prices would rise forever and borrowed against their homes. They are now underwater and cannot sell or move.

    4. There is rampant overcapacity everywhere. We do not need any more Walmarts, Pizza huts, nail salons, Targets, Home Depots, Lowes, gas stations, grocery stores, or anything else.

    5. Global wage arbitrage and outsourcing.

    6. Boomers heading into retirement are scared half to death. They will not be spending or traveling as much as they thought. Indeed they will be attempting to downsize their lifestyle.

    7. Attitudes everywhere have changed. People have finally caught on to the idea that home prices do not always go up. Businesses have caught on to the idea that home prices and commercial real estate does not always go up. Thus banks have tightened lending standards and consumers are reluctant to borrow.

    8. "Frugality is the New Reality". Here is a Search for the word "frugality" in this blog.

    9. Misguided federal tax policy. The administration plans to raise taxes on the wealthy. On top of that the health care plan is going to be very costly for small businesses. Thus the administration has inadvertently given small businesses two more reasons not to hire. Instead the administration should be slashing corporate tax rates.

    10. Government Pension Plans. States are raising property taxes to help fund pension plans that have blown up. This is a drain on the economy. These plans need to be killed. Please see California Treasurer Spanks Legislature Over Pension Reform And Reckless Spending for an interesting rant about the pension mess in California. Most states are in the same boat, although California is the worst of the lot.

    11. Stimulus Spending. Japan has already proven that Keynesian and Monetarist solutions cannot and do not work, yet we try anyway. Please see Will Stimulus Take Hold? for details.

    12. Deficit spending in general. Spending what you don't have and cannot afford never solves anything. We can no longer afford to be the word's policeman but still attempt to do so at enormous cost. Indeed, there are many things we cannot afford and do anyway. As a result, interest on the national debt is soaring, the dollar is weakening, and this is drain on the real economy regardless of what the stock market thinks about it
    ."

    Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Twelve Reasons For A Job Loss Recovery
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2009
  2. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 that military industrial complex drain keeps popping up all over the place.. what is it $.53 of every dollar goes to our military... that is a lot of money.
     
  3. apple strudel

    apple strudel Banned

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    The irony is that our military spending is a form of socialism. Cut the amount of public military spending and you cut jobs. It's all public dollars. Funny how that works.
     
  4. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    The obamans have taken care of that. The $500B or so defense budget seems like a drop in the bucket compared to the drunken sailor obamans.

    And $.53 of every dollar is way off. For discretionary spending you might bu in the ballpark but not every dollar (Social security and medicare say "hi").
     
  5. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    You're really stretching the definition of socialism. But if you want to say that all public services (paid for by tax dollars) are socialism, you're prolly right "by definition".

    But real world....all advanced nations need basic public works. I like to use the term socialism only when discussing economies. Despite providing basic (water, roads, bridges, defense, etc.), our economy isn't socialist. My lord, America wouldn't be America if we went to a Eurpean economic framework.

    I guess in some respects, the "Military-Industrial" complex works...as far as keeping people working. But at some point, we need to find another way.

    But since my thread topic isn't "socialism", let's save that discussion for another thread. Nice try though!:D
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2009
  6. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Excellent opening post PR. I agree with all your points. We're likely headed to a period of slow growth, stagnant wages, and fairly high unemployment. Sadly, the gubmit keeps spending money we don't have, thinking that such spending is going to get us out of the current mess. I'm very worried about the coming years. I'm not sure how long this lull is going to be, but I think it's going to last a while. I'm getting zero calls on my empty commercial space. Scary stuff.
     
  7. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That figure includes benefits for the retired and disabled as well...

    Global Security puts the figure at 623 Billion, and that is a conservative source..

    World Wide Military Expenditures

    Here is a very biased source, take it or leave it.. puts it @ .$54 of every dollar...

    The Federal Pie Chart

    Without regard for the rhetoric, we could save hundreds of billions if we got rid of many of our 700+ out of country bases, and got out of the mideast...
     
  8. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    The Federal Pie Chart
    As I said, that's discretionary spending, not all spending. When you remove the two biggest pieces (Social Security, Medicare) then the third is clearly going to look high :)

    Fine with me.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2009
  9. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I sincerely hope things turn around for you RW! You gotta keep the new wife happy ya know! Well, maybe you can find other ways!;):D
     
  10. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    I'm pretty sure you don't actually understand European economics, or have a clear definition of socialism. Somehow it's all twisted in your head that you're FOR salary caps in the financial industry (yet don't consider it socialist), believe in public works like roads, libraries, fire departments, etc (and don't consider it socialist)... and yet think nationalized health care is socialist.

    The best part is you don't even think you contradict yourself.
     
  11. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    you're a riot mav....I understand EVERYTHING economics.

    But please keep your comments to thread subject. We can discuss off-line if you wish.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2009
  12. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    You claiming to be an expert doesn't somehow cover the dozen+ foolish statements you've made here since you've started posting. I'm far too busy to dig up the various statements you've made, but they're there if people want to look them up.

    I'm still waiting for your chest-thumping deflation prediction to happen, by the way.
     
  13. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    :mad:
    It's already happened bro....how much longer it continues....only time will tell.

    ALL of us, WITHOUT exception have made foolish statements here....so, yes, I'm sure I have. I can say that because I'm not too pompous to admit I'm not always right....I'm JUST LIKE YOU except YOU are far too pompous to admit you're wrong, have been wrong and will be wrong again....praise the lord!:eek::p

    And I can GUARANTEE you that I can thump my chest harder than you can son!

    ....any day...any time.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2009
  14. patsfan13

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    They also attributed the national debt (80%) to the military, a rather lose assumption. :rolleyes:
     
  15. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    PR this is very good take on what is happening. This was predicted by many before the election and those of us who opposed the first Bush stimulus, the government is trying to turn this into a lost decade like the Japanese have had, big government doesn't work.
     
  16. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Pro Bowl Player

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    #75 Jersey

    Ha!

    Where's #13?

    13. Government adopts "Free Trade" policies that remove all trade regulatiosn and filters. Corporate masters are now free to move their factories and other manufacturing related jobs out of the US. Lay-offs continue with no return of jobs in sight.
     
  17. apple strudel

    apple strudel Banned

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    It's implied in number 5 but you're right in the sense that free trade is never mentioned explicitly, nor is off-shoring.
     
  18. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    Even given this thread you made, it makes zero sense that deflation on a rampant scale is happening.

    Please keep repeating that you're an expert on economics, and then contradict yourself again. That seems to be working.
     
  19. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    They are already doing that, higher corp taxes make it harder to build things here.
     
  20. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I can guarantee you that I have never said anything about "deflation on a rampant scale"....first you resort to name calling and now you're lying...keep it up...you're on a roll.

    What I did say is that years of over-spending by consumers based upon a false sense of increased wealth (home values + 401K increases) over the past 10 years resulted in a consumer spending binge. The results will affect consumer spending for years to come. Exactly the same way the Great Depression affected older Americans.

    So all those super deals you've seen this year at restaurants, health clubs, department stores, new cars.....that's all deflation Mav and it's not going to stop in 2010 either. Significant deflation? Yes..."rampant"....I never said it here or anywhere else.

    Maybe you're confusing what YOU said with my posts....I distinctly recall you're the one who used the word "Rampant" in regards to your HYPER-INFLATION prediction. Of course if that happens 10 years from now, you'll say "I (Mav) was right!!":rolleyes:

    A HUGE percentage of Americans will be in-dept and will have no choice but to reduce spending. Credit card companies are cutting limits on those with almost perfect credit. I had one of my credit cards cut from a $9K limit to $900 and I've always paid my balance monthly. I'm sure you're getting the picture or already have.

    Now maybe down the road the dollar may devalue enough to cause inflation, but it won't be caused by increased demand.

    As a side note, take a look at how many auto dealers are selling 2009 models as if they're still new. In years past, current year models were long gone by now and only next years models were available. Toyota actually skipped making a 2009 version of their Sequoias...one their top SUV's. The so-called 2009 version is the same as the 2008 version.

    "Believe it or not there may not be a release date for us in the US. Our district manager (New England) has told us that 09s will not be produced and when they begin allocating 2010 Tundras in March/April, they will also begin with 2010 Sequoias.

    Even if you could get one, if the 10s will be here in April/May you might as well wait."


    http://www.tundrasolutions.com/forums/sequoia/150713-2009-sequoia-release-date/
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2009

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