10 (2006) Draft picks: A statement on Belichick's future?

[groundgame]

With the Patriots taking a league high 10 draft picks last weekend, it begs an interesting question. Were the 10 picks actually taken due to:
(1.) Recognizing and taking full advantage of an exceptional talent-laden draft year class; (2.) Re-stocking the team with low-priced personnel who can be signed up for a bunch of years; (3.) Does the noticeable absence of horse-trading this year's draft picks into more and better picks for next year suggest the Belichick-Pioli regime is quietly planning on cashing in their chips with a three year horizon?; or (4.) Were the 10 picks driven more because they were forced to draft the 2 comp. picks in RD 6?


My opinion: Item #1: Should be a legitimate factor as the 2006 Draft recognized as a good one; Item#2: Their excellent cap management history would tend to discount that as they are in good shape team salary-wise; Item #3: This item should be examined closely as none (0) of the 9 eligible picks were swapped into next year's draft which could suggest a forget-the-future-go-for-it-now 3 year window stategy; Item#4: Not a big factor as they had 5 other picks in rounds 4-7 to bargain with.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

There are at least two other options, IMHO:

(A) The Pats expect to have so many comp picks next year that they decided "horse trading" isn't really a viable option.
(B) They couldn't find anyone willing to make a suitable deal.

 

[R_T26]

In 2004 the Pats had all their picks and didnt make 1 trade. 2nd, maybe no one wanted to trade future picks. 3rd with more cap money teams can fill spots with FA, therefore a less emphasis on the draft. 4th BB is still relatively young (for instance Saban the supposedly up and coming coach is actually a little older then BB) has been in this area since H.S. 5) BB is a loyal person, and knows Kraft took a chance on him when everyone said he was dumb to waste a 1st rounder for him.

I could see BB coachig for another 10 years then taking a Bill Walsh like position with the organization. Plus he has all the resources and power a coach could want.

 

[BradfordPatsFan]

Item #3 intrigues me. However, I think it is more a lack of trading partners. BB more or less said that when a team comes up on the clock, they are almost always receiving phone calls about moving the pick. BB is always willing to listen if the deal is right and they feel that they can get the player they want by moving down and stocking up on other picks. I think it is likely that they did not get an offer worth moving on.

Also, they were able to see many holes on their own team (rb of the future, #2 or 3 wr, #3 te, kicker...) and fill them with the best player available and without worrying about "reaching" for the player when the time came.

IMO if they felt they could have still gotten Mills, for example, ten picks later and the deal was right, they do it. I just don't think there was a right deal for them and they had nothing to gain by trading out of the pick.

Lastly, the view of the "three year window" could be a little shortsighted. I wouldn't think that a draft that brings you a rb, wr, te, and kicker for the future is a draft that is looking in on a three year window, especially given the relative youth at some of the other key players (Watson, Branch, Brady, Seymour, Light, etc). I would hope that BB expects his young stars to be playing at their highest level for more than the next three years.

 

[BelichickFan]

I think Belichick will be in NE through Brady's contract. Belichick knows what he's got, he won't give it up.

 

[the taildragger]

interesting theory, though r t26 makes a good point about '04.

i doubt he's planning his retirement, but even if he was I doubt we'd see it play out in terms of a draft strategy.

halberstam thinks he could end up coaching at some small college. it's kind of like what tom said the other day about not wanting to imagine life without football...these guys are like junkies. if you get a chance catch the Lou Saban documentary on NFL Network -- some of these coaches just can't give it up...BB strikes me as exactly that kind of guy. I can easily see another ten years. I'd definitely put money on him outlasting tom, than the other way around.

 

[IcyPatriot]

I think it's more along this line...I posted this in January.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ead.php?p=29152&highlight=McDaniels#post29152

I've always felt Belichick likes to approach this on many fronts. His detailed on field teaching (which suffered a bit this year), detailed preperation with extra emphasis on classroom time. Our defense lines up usually very confident that the opposing QB truly has little to no clue what is going on. Rendering the opposing team to rely on execution with little room for error.

The same cannot be said for our offense...especially when Brady has only 1 or no TE's held back. I figured this was the plan when we drafted Watson. Like T-Shirt alludes to but it didn't happen for whatever reasons. Heck...3 SB's in 4 years is nothing to complain about. But we all know Belichick always sees room for improvement.

So a shift to RT for Kaczur (or Light)....a 3rd or 4th round selection to back them up along with another road grader (Neal backup if he stays) and I expect to see this unfold nicely next year.

Belichick doesn't have the money or the time to turn over the defense beyond next year.....a ramped-up offense will smooth the defense transition as the linebackers and D-Line transform to fit the cap. In other words Belichicks best bet for cap management right now appears to be the offense...thus McDaniels, Brady, a new RB and a confusing offense will carry us for the next 3-5 years as he re-tools the defense.

Of course this applies to 2007 as we have another run left in us for 2006 with the present team for the most part. My opinion of course....I'm excited to see it....a great pass blocking line that is extremely mobile for the intricate blocking schemes he will use for the runs and screen plays based on the same 2 TE sets. We saw some of that this year...more next year. The league is gonna go nuts when he drafts another TE this year...he needs 3 TE's and Fauria isn't suited for this.

 

[JoeSixPat]

We'd like to think that Belichick is in control of everything

He isn't. I'm sure he was hoping to get AV re-signed - especially after he did the honorable thing and kept his word not to franchise him again.

He was probably hoping to resign Givens and McGinest too. But of course BB can't control the fact that other teams are going to overpay.

I kindof think there were more than a few FAs who BB had hoped to get but went to other teams too.

All in all I don't think FA went anywhere near the way BB hoped it would. In that sense the draft was a reaction/adaptation to the losses and lack of certain additions in FA.

Now this is no knock on BB - very few teams have a FA period go exactly the way they hope - and when it comes to adapting and rolling with the punches, no one is better at making Lemonade out of Lemons than BB

 

[VJCPatriot]

All in all I don't think FA went anywhere near the way BB hoped it would. In that sense the draft was a reaction/adaptation to the losses and lack of certain additions in FA.

I don't think the draft is a reaction to lack of FA pickups except for Chad Jackson maybe. If anything you'd have thought because he didn't pick up any big name LBs in FA he would have gone for someone in the draft. Clearly that's not the case. I think BB stucky by his guns and drafted for value wherever he could.

Maroney was not an immediate need, but he was the best value. Where we got Chad Jackson was a great value and also happened to fit a current need.

2 more tight ends... Well take that as you want it. LOL.

The K, we already picked up a vet in Grammatica but BB felt competition was necessary for that position.

 

[SuperPatriot33]

#3: This item should be examined closely as none (0) of the 9 eligible picks were swapped into next year's draft which could suggest a forget-the-future-go-for-it-now 3 year window stategy; Item#4: Not a big factor as they had 5 other picks in rounds 4-7 to bargain with.

Ok Picture this Im reading your post....Im thinking about it.I raise my finger to the side of my head..I scratch once..I scratch twice..I look around for some clarity...Someone knocks on my door..Its the nurse with my pills...You know the ones that allow me to function in this society..I take the cup..thank the nurse..and she exits..I have an idea...I go to the window open it...Its quiet out almost peaceful..I slide the pills one by one between the bars and watch as they tumble end over end to the ground...I know my answers will come soon...I retreat to my neat cold hospital bed...I close my eyes and wait..........wait.......How long has it been?My left eye seems to have developed a twitch....Someones is in my room.I cant see them because of their invisibility cloak..Is it Bob Keeshan again?..I will not wear those damn green jeans ever again....I bash my head into the wall till he is forced out of my mind.....blackness again....cold....so cold...I rise to my knees I see a bright light...are they back?...no I know that light its my monitor...I move to the light ..crawl up to my seat and read...brilliant...someone understands...someone else has figured it out...you draft players for instant results..see most people think you sign troubled wide receivers and overpay in free agency..trade all your draft picks away like the skins when you are desparate and want to win now...but they cant see like we can...we know...Belichick wants out...hes leaving ..thats why our team is getting younger ...Its so clear...groundgame I will join you I will.We shall rule this land with an iron fist...because the monkey would have it no other way.....what...oh its you...where are we off to now mister lighter than air?

 

[shakadave]

As for suggestion (3) the good news is that next year, we'll still have a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7th round pick, plus some serious comp picks. No need to stockpile for next year.

 

[nickw308810]

Ok Picture this Im reading your post....Im thinking about it.I raise my finger to the side of my head..I scratch once..I scratch twice..I look around for some clarity...Someone knocks on my door..Its the nurse with my pills...You know the ones that allow me to function in this society..I take the cup..thank the nurse..and she exits..I have an idea...I go to the window open it...Its quiet out almost peaceful..I slide the pills one by one between the bars and watch as they tumble end over end to the ground...I know my answers will come soon...I retreat to my neat cold hospital bed...I close my eyes and wait..........wait.......How long has it been?My left eye seems to have developed a twitch....Someones is in my room.I cant see them because of their invisibility cloak..Is it Bob Keeshan again?..I will not wear those damn green jeans ever again....I bash my head into the wall till he is forced out of my mind.....blackness again....cold....so cold...I rise to my knees I see a bright light...are they back?...no I know that light its my monitor...I move to the light ..crawl up to my seat and read...brilliant...someone understands...someone else has figured it out...you draft players for instant results..see most people think you sign troubled wide receivers and overpay in free agency..trade all your draft picks away like the skins when you are desparate and want to win now...but they cant see like we can...we know...Belichick wants out...hes leaving ..thats why our team is getting younger ...Its so clear...groundgame I will join you I will.We shall rule this land with an iron fist...because the monkey would have it no other way.....what...oh its you...where are we off to now mister lighter than air?

This is the most bizarre post I have ever read. I don't even know what to think about it.

 

[dhamz]

(3.) Does the noticeable absence of horse-trading this year's draft picks into more and better picks for next year suggest the Belichick-Pioli regime is quietly planning on cashing in their chips with a three year horizon?;

Then why didn't they trade a bunch of picks for Javon Walker and sign a bunch of high priced free agents if that is the idea?

Drafting a lot of young players isn't normally what you do when you plan on leaving soon and need to win ASAP. You go out and get veterans and sign a TO like Dallas did.

 

[SuperPatriot33]

Then why didn't they trade a bunch of picks for Javon Walker and sign a bunch of high priced free agents if that is the idea?

Drafting a lot of young players isn't normally what you do when you plan on leaving soon and need to win ASAP. You go out and get veterans and sign a TO like Dallas did.

see you agree with my post Im not insane

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

This is the most bizarre post I have ever read. I don't even know what to think about it.

He's ridiculing the original poster for suggesting that our lack of draft day maneuvering is an indication that BB/Pioli are looking to "cash in their chips" and are therefore only concerned with the next 3 years.

He suggests that only an insane person would think that way.

I know all this because.... oh wait... my nurse is coming with my pills, be right back....

 

[Hoodie]

I prefer not to think of BB retiring.

 

[Hoodie]

The man himself said...

"I'm not going to be Marv Levy. You won't be looking for me when I'm 72. It's a short-term thing for me. I don't think about where I'll be in three years. Or a year. I'm just worried about this week."



http://www.allthingsbillbelichick.com/articles/2005/thebrain.htm

 

[JoeSixPat]

(3.) Does the noticeable absence of horse-trading this year's draft picks into more and better picks for next year suggest the Belichick-Pioli regime is quietly planning on cashing in their chips with a three year horizon?;

I couldn be wrong but I think most of the BB draft trades - and those of other teams - are usually for the next year's draft - not three years out

In any event I don't doubt that BB wanted to trade out and up for 2007 picks - but in a so-called "weak" draft that's not always easy to do - especially outside the 1st round.

You always need two to tango for those deals to work - so BB could have wanted to do that more than anything - but other teams GMs might not have wanted to go along - especially after BB made the Ravens look stupid doing that to grab Kyle Boller with the Pats pick a few years ago

GMs don't like to look stupid, and trading with BB tends to do exactly that

 

[SuperPatriot33]

Ok Picture this Im reading your post....Im thinking about it.I raise my finger to the side of my head..I scratch once..I scratch twice..I look around for some clarity...Someone knocks on my door..Its the nurse with my pills...You know the ones that allow me to function in this society..I take the cup..thank the nurse..and she exits..I have an idea...I go to the window open it...Its quiet out almost peaceful..I slide the pills one by one between the bars and watch as they tumble end over end to the ground...I know my answers will come soon...I retreat to my neat cold hospital bed...I close my eyes and wait..........wait.......How long has it been?My left eye seems to have developed a twitch....Someones is in my room.I cant see them because of their invisibility cloak..Is it Bob Keeshan again?..I will not wear those damn green jeans ever again....I bash my head into the wall till he is forced out of my mind.....blackness again....cold....so cold...I rise to my knees I see a bright light...are they back?...no I know that light its my monitor...I move to the light ..crawl up to my seat and read...brilliant...someone understands...someone else has figured it out...you draft players for instant results..see most people think you sign troubled wide receivers and overpay in free agency..trade all your draft picks away like the skins when you are desparate and want to win now...but they cant see like we can...we know...Belichick wants out...hes leaving ..thats why our team is getting younger ...Its so clear...groundgame I will join you I will.We shall rule this land with an iron fist...because the monkey would have it no other way.....what...oh its you...where are we off to now mister lighter than air?

I would like to nominate this as post of the year.

 

[DaBruinz]

With the Patriots taking a league high 10 draft picks last weekend, it begs an interesting question. Were the 10 picks actually taken due to:
(1.) Recognizing and taking full advantage of an exceptional talent-laden draft year class; (2.) Re-stocking the team with low-priced personnel who can be signed up for a bunch of years; (3.) Does the noticeable absence of horse-trading this year's draft picks into more and better picks for next year suggest the Belichick-Pioli regime is quietly planning on cashing in their chips with a three year horizon?; or (4.) Were the 10 picks driven more because they were forced to draft the 2 comp. picks in RD 6?


My opinion: Item #1: Should be a legitimate factor as the 2006 Draft recognized as a good one; Item#2: Their excellent cap management history would tend to discount that as they are in good shape team salary-wise; Item #3: This item should be examined closely as none (0) of the 9 eligible picks were swapped into next year's draft which could suggest a forget-the-future-go-for-it-now 3 year window stategy; Item#4: Not a big factor as they had 5 other picks in rounds 4-7 to bargain with.

The Green Bay Packers actually had the most picks in the draft with 12 picks. The Pats only had 10. The same amount as the Jets, Browns, and Baltimore, just to name a few.

The bigger reason, I believe, and its mentioned by others, is that the Patriots are looking at having 4 comp picks next year. Those 4 picks won't be tradeable, though the other 7 will be. And that the Patriots are looking at drafting in the middle to the end of each round.

I don't believe item 3 because what I mentioned previously. I also believe that Item 1 and 2 are closer to the truth, though 4-5 year contracts are hardly a bunch of years.