#1 draft priority OLB

[captain stone]

I agree, I think Ty Warren returns and does his usual above average job of stopping the run. Combine that with Wilfork on the Nose and Deaderick/Wright at the opposite DE spot and I think the D Line is stable.

However I simply can not watch another week of horrible OLB play. TBC needs to be reintroduced to disciplined run stopping and Ninkovich and Cunningham need strength and technique work badly.

Can the problems of TBC, Ninko & Cunningham be corrected, either by season's end or by the start of next season, or do you feel that some of those problems (esp. by the vet TBC) are incorrectable?

Also, is the progress - if any - of Crable too difficult to evaluate at this time, because of the more specific role he has?

 

[rookBoston]

Why focus on filling the need with the first pick? We've got six in the first three rounds. Whether we take OLB with 1a or 2b, the key is getting a kid that can fit the scheme and has the right attitude. I think Kerrigan is a fit, but there are a lot of ways to skin this.

1a. RB - Ingram, Alabama
1b. OLB - Beal, Oklahoma
2a. WR - Floyd, Notre Dame
2b. NT - Powe, Ole Miss

... or this way...

1a. OLB - Kerrigan, Purdue
1b. OT - Castonzo, BC
2a. RB - Vereen, Cal
2b. CB - Harris, Miami

There are a lot of good players to pick from. And there are legitimate OLB options well into the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

[Off The Grid]

Can the problems of TBC, Ninko & Cunningham be corrected, either by season's end or by the start of next season, or do you feel that some of those problems (esp. by the vet TBC) are incorrectable?

Also, is the progress - if any - of Crable too difficult to evaluate at this time, because of the more specific role he has?

Hyphen Boy has no shortcomings that can't be cured by a quick trip to the waiver wire.

I think Jermaine Cunningham is for real, and is going to develop into a very good Flanker, albeit with some growing pains, of course.

Ninkovich is a Scrapper, but he actually has some skills, as well. Much as I love John Wilhite as a #4 Corner, and Gary Guyton as a #4 MidFielder, I love Rob Ninkovich as a #4 Flanker: He's the kind of guy who comes in, busts his @$$, gets the job done a little better each month, and shows an increasing penchant for making big plays...as long as he's not overexposed.

And I'm certainly intrigued by the notion of Shawn Crable as an 11th Hour Reclamation Project. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him earn a larger role, by year's end. For now, of course, I have high hopes and low expectations from him...But seeing him go 3 straight months without a season-ending injury, for a change, is encouraging. As 5th Flankers go ~ I'm anticipating expanded rosters, next year ~ you could do worse.

Of course, that leaves us 2 High Grade Flankers short of where I'd like us to be.

I expect we'll get one, and retain Hyphen Boy. And, all things considered, that wouldn't be a bad place to be, next year, even if it isn't what I'd consider optimum:

1 ~ Cunningham ~ Solid starter, good and improving against both the Run + the Pass.

2 ~ Mr X ~ Starting Caliber Rookie, preferably a potential BEAST, such as DaQuan Bowers, Robert Quinn, or Aldon Smith.

3 ~ Ninkovich ~ Decent against both the run and the pass. Able to start in the event of an injury, without the Defense collapsing.

4 ~ Hyphen Boy ~ Pass Rush Specialist.

5 ~ Crable ~ Potential against Pass + Run, but still a mystery, right now.

 

[BlackFrancis]

Ochmed, what do you think of Bailey as a Belichick DLman? I know you aren't an ACC guy but figured I'd ask anyway. I've been convinced for two years now that he's exactly what Bill loves with his linemen - big, quick, playmaker and above all, he's versatile. He'll never be the run stuffer Richard was but the talents he does possess lend so well to disguising your front, I just can't look past him.

CBS has him way up there at 6 but he might drop come April, like other linemen from the U have in the past.

Come out of the first round with Bailey and Kerrigan, who's measurables will drop him come Combine time, and they'd be set up with a nice little front seven, replete with competent, role playing subs.

 

[Taxed in Maine]

Ochmed, what do you think of Bailey as a Belichick DLman? I know you aren't an ACC guy but figured I'd ask anyway. I've been convinced for two years now that he's exactly what Bill loves with his linemen - big, quick, playmaker and above all, he's versatile. He'll never be the run stuffer Richard was but the talents he does possess lend so well to disguising your front, I just can't look past him.

CBS has him way up there at 6 but he might drop come April, like other linemen from the U have in the past.

Come out of the first round with Bailey and Kerrigan, who's measurables will drop him come Combine time, and they'd be set up with a nice little front seven, replete with competent, role playing subs.

I'm not Ochmed. But do not think Bailey is a good fit. He is a penetrator, more suited to play UT in a 4-3. If he does end up in a 3-4 it would have to be for a 1-gap defense, not a 2-gap style like the Pats play.

JMO

 

[MaineMan]

Yes, I consistently find Walter strangely disturbing: a very useful and engaging Site, but with repeatedly stunning Black Holes of information that leave me shaking my head.

I love guys like Watt. Raw, explosive talent. GREAT character ~ He was a walk on at Wisconsin who initially put himself through school by delivering pizzas, IIRC. THIN resume that'll frighten off men of lesser Testicular Fortitude than Brother Bill. NOSE BLEED Upside.

In a word: We could end up getting a guy who ~ in retrospect ~ might be considered a Top 5 Talent...at anywhere from about #32 to about #80 or so.

Actually, I think it's McGuire (not Walter) who does the sites prospect reviews/rankings as well as their mock. McGuire always seems to miss a guy or two and then defends this as intentional and flames anyone who disagrees. He also continues to support (make excuses for) his favorites long after a lot of other have begun to downgrade them over red flags.

OTOH, McGuire does often publish notes on guys that no one else does and, even though he may rate them as 7th round/UDFA, it at least provides a starting point for catching on to potential sleepers. Sometimes.

 

[dryheat44]

I'm not sure why all the ill-will towards Brace. After Wilfork, he's been our best D-lineman against the run, and his rate of improvement is remarkable. So he's 20 lbs heavier than a traditional 3-4 DE. It doesn't seem to effect him that much, and if he could easily lose 15 lbs over the offseason and keep his strength.

I think at this point, I'm more worried about the offensive line, but I'd also probably go with an impact DE if available with our first pick.

 

[MaineMan]

Walter Football happens to be a hot bed of Dolfans.

It's true that there's a lot of them over there. But it amuses me that, under Individual Team Forums, the AFCE thread is often completely taken over by Pats fans.

Actually, in spite of clear team loyalties, unlike a lot of other boards most of the regular posters over there are pretty civil and a bit more interested in "non-denominational" discussion of football and players than in being always right while calling everyone else stupid. Well, except for McGuire.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

It's true that there's a lot of them over there. But it amuses me that, under Individual Team Forums, the AFCE thread is often completely taken over by Pats fans.

Actually, in spite of clear team loyalties, unlike a lot of other boards most of the regular posters over there are pretty civil and a bit more interested in "non-denominational" discussion of football and players than in being always right while calling everyone else stupid. Well, except for McGuire.

I've only tended to read their front page items and All-Star game reports.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

OLB prospects run deep in this draft class, the current NCAA active sack leader is projected as a 7th round prospect.

I have little doubt NE can bolster the depth and competition at OLB if they feel it necessary, for now it's pleasant to watch the development of Cunningham and Ninkovich, to see Crable active on the field, and read all the carping over Banta-Cain.

 

[MaineMan]

I've only tended to read their front page items and All-Star game reports.

IIRC, I first started visiting when a Google search led me to their "mock draft database" listing of links to some out-of-the-way sites where I've found some useful info and decent football writers. The forums can often be just time-wasters, but a few of the posters consistently produce some pretty funny snark (they're also the same people who offer the best insights when they're being serious).

Like almost everything else in life, it's neither consistently great nor consistently awful.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

IIRC, I first started visiting when a Google search led me to their "mock draft database" listing of links to some out-of-the-way sites where I've found some useful info and decent football writers. The forums can often be just time-wasters, but a few of the posters consistently produce some pretty funny snark (they're also the same people who offer the best insights when they're being serious).

Like almost everything else in life, it's neither consistently great nor consistently awful.

I tend to get more from Universal Draft's Dolfans who not only do nice player analysis using Youtube clips to highlight their points, but if you check their Twitting during the draft season they are the best source for reports on NE Patriot player workouts.

 

[MaineMan]

DE/DT:

Guys who seem likely to stick around:
* T. Warren - has been a solid runstopper, very good 2-gap guy, but who knows if he'll come back as good and will be entering his 9th season (?!)
* Deaderick - not nearly as consistent as T. Warren yet , but maybe a bit more dynamic; showing good promise, anyway
* Ron Brace - obviously a slow development curve, but Ahtyba Rubin looked kinda "bust-ish" until this year (his 3rd)
* Mike Wright - not a "classic" anything, but can do a lot of different things fairly well; solid player who increases the range of tactical options
* Myron Pryor - shorter than Wright, but seems like similar competencies, at least from interior spots, good in 4-man fronts
* Wilfork - duh

So, we have a STUD NT (Wilfork) and possibly his backup (Brace), possibly one solid (aging) 2-gap DE (T.Warren) and possibly his replacement (Deaderick). The rest of the guys seem like pretty good reserves who can play a variety of roles and provide lots of extra tactical options. But we're missing a STUD DE - the type of player who commands enough blocking attention that he makes the pass-rush of merely competent OLBs a threat.

* G. Warren - he's been reasonably competent as far as I can tell, a good professional, but he feels like a one-tear rental of a guy in the twilight (or late afternoon) of his career. Not much upside.

Guys I haven't seen enough of (personally) to evaluate. Maybe means there's not much there to see. At this point, I'm not counting on them to last beyond 2011 Camp.
* Kyle Love
* Darryl Richard
* Kade Weston
* Lorenzo Washington.

Whether or not the above five guys (including G. Warren) are ultimately gone or not for 2011 depends not only on how they develop, but on whether or not we get someone who is (or is likely to be) significantly better.
------------------

OLB:

* TBC - A bit more competent (IMO) at run defense, pass defense and pass-rush than most people seem to give him credit for, but definitely not the level of competence or consistency that I'd like to see in a #1 guy. An okay reserve for now, but he'll also be entering his 9th season in 2011 (yeah, I know, already?!), so we'll be needing another competent reserve guy soon anyway.
* Cunningham - Still gaps in his game, but already improved over TBC. If he keeps developing at this pace, I'm good with him being one of the #1s at least for 2011.
* Ninkovich - I admire the way he appears to be steadily improving his game in only his first year really playing significant snaps at the position. Solid player; not often outstanding but not often unreliable, either, and correcting his mistakes as he goes. Not sure he has the upside to become a true long term #1, but he's already exceeded anything Pierre Woods ever did for us and seems more consistent than TBC. I think he'll be at least an extremely valuable #1a for a few years.
* Crable - Hell, IDK. So far, he seems to have only been deployed as a pass-rush specialist and (IMO) he's been not particularly stellar (though he's gotten close to home a few times). Not very good in either run defense or coverage, as afar as I've been able to see. At this point, I'm not counting on him lasting beyond 2011 Camp since it seems like it should be relatively easy to do better.

So, we have one possibly very good #1 (Cunningham), one possibly very good #1a (Ninkovich), one adequate-but-aging reserve (TBC) and, well, Crable. Seems like we need to try for another #1 guy (a solid run-defender who also has serious pass-rush potential and isn't a liability in coverage) and another competent reserve guy (who's good against the run and in coverage with a competent rush).
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So, BOTTOM LINE for me is, we need a STUD 3-4 DE (1st-round, probably), a VERY GOOD 3-4 OLB/RUSHER (early round, anyway) and a late-round OLB/ potentially competent reserve.

 

[MaineMan]

I tend to get more from Universal Draft's Dolfans who not only do nice player analysis using Youtube clips to highlight their points, but if you check their Twitting during the draft season they are the best source for reports on NE Patriot player workouts.

Actually, I availed myself of some of that this past draft season. IIRC, they were also especially good about reporting from Shrine Game practices.

 

[Off The Grid]

Actually, I think it's McGuire (not Walter) who does the sites prospect reviews/rankings as well as their mock. McGuire always seems to miss a guy or two and then defends this as intentional and flames anyone who disagrees. He also continues to support (make excuses for) his favorites long after a lot of other have begun to downgrade them over red flags.

OTOH, McGuire does often publish notes on guys that no one else does and, even though he may rate them as 7th round/UDFA, it at least provides a starting point for catching on to potential sleepers. Sometimes.

Nicely put, sir. Therein, I think, lies a great portion of the value of that Site, as well as an Emporium for Mock Drafts, though most'f'm are garbage!!

Yeah, I was referring to Walter as a Site, not as a guy. I don't know who Walter is, but I find his choice of Site Name to be astonishingly lame. But it's worth the occasional click, so I hold my nose and proceed. :snob:

 

[Off The Grid]

I'm not sure why all the ill-will towards Brace.

After Wilfork, he's been our best D-lineman against the run, and his rate of improvement is remarkable.

So he's 20 lbs heavier than a traditional 3-4 DE. It doesn't seem to effect him that much, and if he could easily lose 15 lbs over the offseason and keep his strength.

Excellent, excellent point.

I am JACKED that we've got Brace, and I have NO interest in him losing weight. I consider Nose Tackle to be THE most important position on any team that doesn't include General Tom Brady, and for that reason I would REQUIRE us to have TWO Starting Caliber Nose Tackles, every single year...And if a large portion of Brace's duties include splitting out wide ~ so to speak ~ so we can drop about 660 pounds of Grizzly Beef on the Front Line...Here's TO it!! :rocker:

 

[Off The Grid]

Like almost everything else in life, it's neither consistently great nor consistently awful.

How would you characterize someone like me, who is awfully great...consistently??

 

[MaineMan]

Nicely put, sir. Therein, I think, lies a great portion of the value of that Site, as well as an Emporium for Mock Drafts, though most'f'm are garbage!!

Yeah, I was referring to Walter as a Site, not as a guy. I don't know who Walter is, but I find his choice of Site Name to be astonishingly lame. But it's worth the occasional click, so I hold my nose and proceed. :snob:

I don't at all claim to know Walter Cherepinsky well, but we've had a few nice email exchanges and he seems like the kind of guy who, after rolling a few potential site names around his brain for awhile, probably said, "Y'know what? They all sound lame. Screw it. I'll just name it after me and get on with the important stuff."

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Excellent, excellent point.

I am JACKED that we've got Brace, and I have NO interest in him losing weight. I consider Nose Tackle to be THE most important position on any team that doesn't include General Tom Brady, and for that reason I would REQUIRE us to have TWO Starting Caliber Nose Tackles, every single year...And if a large portion of Brace's duties include splitting out wide ~ so to speak ~ so we can drop about 660 pounds of Grizzly Beef on the Front Line...Here's TO it!! :rocker:

I consider Brace to be absolutely horrible on the nose. He gets too high and pushed all the way back New Mexico. He is at best marginal as a DE and the only upside I see to him is maybe he can block some of the wind from whipping BB as he stands on the side lines.

That being said, Brace has a whale of a good coach in Pepper, who needs to work on Brace's technique over and over again.

If we had drafted Cody, our D Line of Deaderick-Cody and Wilfork would be very difficult to run against.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

DE/DT:

Guys who seem likely to stick around:
* T. Warren - has been a solid runstopper, very good 2-gap guy, but who knows if he'll come back as good and will be entering his 9th season (?!)
* Deaderick - not nearly as consistent as T. Warren yet , but maybe a bit more dynamic; showing good promise, anyway
* Ron Brace - obviously a slow development curve, but Ahtyba Rubin looked kinda "bust-ish" until this year (his 3rd)
* Mike Wright - not a "classic" anything, but can do a lot of different things fairly well; solid player who increases the range of tactical options
* Myron Pryor - shorter than Wright, but seems like similar competencies, at least from interior spots, good in 4-man fronts
* Wilfork - duh

So, we have a STUD NT (Wilfork) and possibly his backup (Brace), possibly one solid (aging) 2-gap DE (T.Warren) and possibly his replacement (Deaderick). The rest of the guys seem like pretty good reserves who can play a variety of roles and provide lots of extra tactical options. But we're missing a STUD DE - the type of player who commands enough blocking attention that he makes the pass-rush of merely competent OLBs a threat.

* G. Warren - he's been reasonably competent as far as I can tell, a good professional, but he feels like a one-tear rental of a guy in the twilight (or late afternoon) of his career. Not much upside.

Guys I haven't seen enough of (personally) to evaluate. Maybe means there's not much there to see. At this point, I'm not counting on them to last beyond 2011 Camp.
* Kyle Love
* Darryl Richard
* Kade Weston
* Lorenzo Washington.

Whether or not the above five guys (including G. Warren) are ultimately gone or not for 2011 depends not only on how they develop, but on whether or not we get someone who is (or is likely to be) significantly better.
------------------

OLB:

* TBC - A bit more competent (IMO) at run defense, pass defense and pass-rush than most people seem to give him credit for, but definitely not the level of competence or consistency that I'd like to see in a #1 guy. An okay reserve for now, but he'll also be entering his 9th season in 2011 (yeah, I know, already?!), so we'll be needing another competent reserve guy soon anyway.
* Cunningham - Still gaps in his game, but already improved over TBC. If he keeps developing at this pace, I'm good with him being one of the #1s at least for 2011.
* Ninkovich - I admire the way he appears to be steadily improving his game in only his first year really playing significant snaps at the position. Solid player; not often outstanding but not often unreliable, either, and correcting his mistakes as he goes. Not sure he has the upside to become a true long term #1, but he's already exceeded anything Pierre Woods ever did for us and seems more consistent than TBC. I think he'll be at least an extremely valuable #1a for a few years.
* Crable - Hell, IDK. So far, he seems to have only been deployed as a pass-rush specialist and (IMO) he's been not particularly stellar (though he's gotten close to home a few times). Not very good in either run defense or coverage, as afar as I've been able to see. At this point, I'm not counting on him lasting beyond 2011 Camp since it seems like it should be relatively easy to do better.

So, we have one possibly very good #1 (Cunningham), one possibly very good #1a (Ninkovich), one adequate-but-aging reserve (TBC) and, well, Crable. Seems like we need to try for another #1 guy (a solid run-defender who also has serious pass-rush potential and isn't a liability in coverage) and another competent reserve guy (who's good against the run and in coverage with a competent rush).
-----------

So, BOTTOM LINE for me is, we need a STUD 3-4 DE (1st-round, probably), a VERY GOOD 3-4 OLB/RUSHER (early round, anyway) and a late-round OLB/ potentially competent reserve.

The problem with your analysis is that there is only one stud 3-4 DE in this draft (Dareus) and he will be gone long before we draft. Will BB trade up for him? Very unlikely to say the least.

Fortunately however there are tons of potential stud 3-4 OLBs and from what I have seen this year, Kerrigan looks to be the best. The combine will tell us if he can run a 4.6, how strong he is and if he can change direction. If he does well there, that should seal the deal as far as I am concerned.

Either way, we need a sack threat off the edge that can also play the run in order to be an effective 3rd down defense.