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Did you not read my post? I just said that there are obviously going to be exceptions, so this comment "So we should assume that all teams above 12-4 were only there because of luck?" is a strawman. I never said anything like that. All I'm saying is that for the most part, true team quality...

This is just wrong. Imagine, for a moment, that each team has an equal chance of being lucky or unlucky in a given season, regardless of team quality. The lucky teams will tend to move towards the top of the standings. So MOST of the teams at the top will have been somewhat lucky, and most at...

The only major problem with this post is that it is absolutely not true that, for example, a 15-1 team has/had a 93.75% chance to win each game. The teams with the best records in the league are almost by definition a little lucky. Likewise, the teams with the worst records tend to have been...

Re: "Man-hands" MacMullen back to doing what she does best Exactly. What makes you think a personal trainer speaks for Richard Seymour? He's quite capable of speaking for himself.

Re: "Man-hands" MacMullen back to doing what she does best Huh? Where exactly does Seymour blame his injuries on playing fullback? MacMullen specifically says "I'm sure Richard wouldn't say this, and the Patriots would probably rather not hear it, but those goal line situations they put him...

Re: Bye week thoughts.... Fully agree with you here - I don't know why this isn't mentioned more often. Not to mention that if you get beat badly on a deep pass, you're generally not in position to tackle the receiver, either before or after he catches the ball.

Does the Strength of Schedule thing seem backwards to anyone else? Isn't the team with the worse strength of schedule probably a weaker team than others with the same record? Seems to me that the team with the harder schedule should "win" the tie-breaker and pick first. (According to GBN's list...

Well, sims are by definition random. Odd things happen in every game, so they should happen in a sim, too. I truly believe the Pats are the better team right now, but I'd expect the colds to win around 35-45% of the time in any good simulation (which is about the odds I give them in real life).