Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

Re: Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

RUT RO RAGGY :bricks:

Re: Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

In all the rhetoric around this issue, always find comments such as this amusing..

Gives the connotation that all of this is being done under some feudal system of duress.... forced to play for 9.5 million. Welker is not a victim in this matter..

Re: Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

Though the article doesn't discuss contract length, guaranteeing him $21 mill seems excessive considering his age and his role going forward.
Two points:
1) His 2011 stats were inflated due to the lock out/lack of defense in the league when the season opened last year. In the month of September, QBs were dialing up 300-500 yd games at will. During the first quarter of 2011, Welker amassed 40% of his yardage stats and 5 of his 9 TDs. No question Wes had a great back half of the season as well....but this leads me to point #2
2) In 2011, #2 WR Branch averaged 3.3 catches/game. #3 WR Ochocinco averaged 1 catch/game. With Lloyd on the field and competent alternatives in the bullpen (Gafney, Branch), not to mention a new OC that loves targeting WRs, not a chance in hell Welker repeats his 2011 numbers. The nonWelker WR receptions could increase 75%.

Logic dictates points #1 and #2. And my gutt tells me that McDaniels will incorporate more screen and RB pass plays as well. I also suspect BB will seek to regain the time of possession advantage by utilizing his young RBs and establishing a more consistent running game.
Bottom line. Brady has more targets and a more reliable cast to lean on. And an evolving team philosophy may balance out the offense as well. I just don't see Welker repeating his 2011 numbers...so let them revisit his contract next offseason when he is a year older with more down to Earth stats.
And lets not forget....The little guy was tackled 120 times last year....and concussions can take a player off the field for indefinite periods of time.

Re: Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

6/2 = 3. #compromise

Re: Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

had to stop after point #1.. He lead the league in catches and has a history of doing this year after year with no sign of slow down.. This isn't like he peaked one year or something..

Re: Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

Unfortunately, WRs can hit the age wall pretty quickly especially a WR who takes the abuse that Welker does constantly going over the middle. That is where the hesitance is to give him what he is looking for. He isn't showing signs of slowing down, but neither did Moss in 2009 (ok, maybe he did a bit the last few games).

I am not saying the Pats shouldn't lock him up (in fact, I wish they would), but they do have concerns about when Welker's body will start to break down and I think those are legitimate concerns. He could go until he is 35 or 36 or he could start to break down this season for all we know.

Re: Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

You would think...but I'm not sure it's just 6. Remember, Welker is on record stating that the guaranteed money decreased between their 2011 offer and his tagging. I think that's because they lost a year of amortization and they apparently weren't inclined to make that level of offer absent it. The 2/$16M in 2011 was really 3/$18.5M or an average of just over $6M per...when tacked on to the remaining season on his deal at the time. Makes a big cap hit difference when you do a deal before the old deal is over. Now whatever his deal averages is what it is so to speak... If the issues are both guaranteed money and AAV, not to mention length of deal, they might as well be light years apart. You don't easily compromise and close that many gaps in any negotiation. My gut instinct is that Wes wanted 5, would have settled for 4, and might consider 3 but that 3 would have to be at a higher average and largely guaranteed. Meanwhile the Pats seem pretty intent on not extending past 2 and not even at $8M anymore. If they go up on years and guaranteed money, the average comes down. So say you're looking at 3/$21M even with most of it guaranteed...Wes is looking at the potential to make that in 2 if he has another even top 5 season. Not even contemplating a second tag, he would get another 3 year $20M+ offer from a team desperate for his kind of slot production and have $20M+ in hand in 2012 salary and 2013 signing bonus 9 months from now. And the implicit guarantee of upwards of several million more the following season. That's kind of like waving a red flag in front of a bull. Wes believes in himself, as well he should given the way his career has unfolded. Barely an UDFA to one of the top 25 players in the game...

Re: Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

Anybody have any idea what WW would be looking at in the open market?

KC would be the logical choice. Something says MC would give a kidney for WW. Maybe Atlanta?

Re: Bedard: Pats and Welker $6 mill apart
 

The rule of thumb on WR's is age 35 breakdown. Obviously, WW would need some adjustment.