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Player Expectations Based on Draft Position

In the main forum there is a "vigorous" debate going on regarding BB being a good draft/talent evaluator. I think the root of the disagreements come from the expectations associated with player based on draft position, and what constitutes a "bust."

Based on that premise I quickly put together my expectations and they are:

Early 1st:
Worst Case: 8-10 year starter
Best Case: Multiple (more than 3) pro bowls
Mid-Late First:
Worst Case: Multi-year starter
Best Case: 2-3 pro-bowl appearances
2nd-3rd:
Worst Case: Situational starter
Best Case: Multi-year starter
4th-5th:
Worst Case: Camp fodder
Best Case: Situational Starter or Career STer.
Post 5th-UDFA:
Worst Case: Camp fodder
Best: Career STer

If the Team gets those things from a player that is a solid-good pick. If the team gets less it's a miss, and if they get more than it's a good to great pick.

Also if a player's career is shortened due to injury I don't count that against a team unless there is an obvious injury history, like Wheatley.

This is still fluid in my my mind and I am open to critique.

What are your expectations?

Re: Player Expectations Based on Draft Position

Top 20:
Multi year starter, at least a few pro bowls

20-32:
talent is diluted but if scouting dept does their job they can still get a multi year starter who can make some pro-bowls

2nd:
gambles, if you're batting .500 its a good job

3 onward:
total crapshoot at this point, I wouldn't value a 3rd that much more than a 6th

Re: Player Expectations Based on Draft Position

Quote:

Originally Posted by ay-yo (Post 3022558)

This is why I don't like to see the Patriots trade down from the first round.
The Pats recent draft history proves your points.

Re: Player Expectations Based on Draft Position

Here is some information that is somewhat on point. IMO, it shows that fans' (my own included) expectations for success exeeds reality.

The Huddle Report - NFL Draft Research and Analysis

only a 50% chance a 2nd rounder ever becomes a full time starter or major contributor. The number is 30% for third rounders, so picking late in the round extrapolates to about 40%.

Full Disclosure: The 10-year study was prepared for NFL Network by Charley Casserly!