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ECONOMIC REPORT

Leading indicators rise for second straight month

Data show economy is weak, but not in recession, Conference Board says

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:26 a.m. EDT May 19, 2008Print E-mail RSS Disable Live Quotes

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy is likely to remain weak, but is not in a recession, economists for the Conference Board said Monday after announcing that the index of leading economic indicators rose a second straight month in April.

The index, which attempts to forecast turning points in the economy, rose 0.1% in April, matching March's gain after falling for the five prior months.
"These data certainly reflect a weak economy, but not one in recession," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research group. The small increases in March and April "could be a signal that the economy may not weaken further." Read the full report.

The leading index is down at a 2.3% annual pace in the past six months, better than the 4.7% annualized decline in the six months ending in January. Four of the 10 leading indicators are stronger over the past six months, the broadest strength since November.

The coincident index, which measures the current economy, was flat in April and is down at a 0.7% annual rate in the past six months. The coincident index has not risen since October. The four indicators in the coincident index are the same ones used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to judge whether the economy is in a recession.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...64D828D3FE1%7D