The big day
First, this is what I think the teams above us will do:
1. Jake Long to Miami
2. Dorsey to Atlanta - they trade up to make sure they get him
3. Chris Long to Rams - perfect fit for SL
4. Oakland will trade down - they have no 2nd, 3rd, or 5th rounders right now. More on that below. I think Matt Ryan goes in this spot.
5. KC will grab Gholsten if he's on the board. They just traded away their stud 4-3 DE Jared Allen. They also have the 17th pick to address other areas.
6. Jets will take McFadden, assuming Ryan and Gholsten are gone. They can't move up because they don't have a 3rd rounder, and I can't imagine them moving down with any of these guys there.
7. Pats options:
a) I don't see us staying at 7. We don't need Ellis, and he's the only one worth that spot - the last premium DT. I give us only a 10% chance of picking at 7.
b) We could be the ones to trade up to #4 to take Gholsten, if BB feels he is that special. I give that maybe a 10% chance. Oakland will be selling, he won't fall to us at 7, and we have the ammo with that high 3rd rounder #69, so all the pieces are in place. I just doubt we'll do it, because the guy wasn't a huge producer, and is also a conversion project, so there's a risk this guy never becomes a great 3-4 LB.
Note: if somehow Dorsey falls out of the top 3 (i.e., if Atlanta takes Ryan), then I think BB is all over this trade.
c) Trade downs, but staying within the top 15:
- move down 2-4 spots and pick up a 3rd rounder;
- move down 5-8 spots and pick up a 2nd rounder.
Either of these is the most likely to happen. There are teams that will want Ellis or Ryan, and at least one of them is certain to still be there at 7.
I think we'll end up selecting between 9 and 14, and it will be either Derrick Harvey, Leodis McKelvin, possibly Mayo, or one of the OT's.
That leaves one loose end - who trades with Oakland at 4, and who do they pick? I think it will be Baltimore in order to get Ryan. KC is a threat to take Ryan at 5, as well as the Jets at 6. Ravens have to get Ryan.
Re: The big day
Can't wait to see what BB up to today. I think you are on target. If unable to trade down, I hope they pick a CB. I'd love this draft:
7 Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
62 Antoine Cason CB Arizona
69 Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
94 Kellen Davis TE Michigan State
129 Orlando Scandrick CB Boise St
164 Kevin O'Connell QB San Diego St
197 Marcus Smith WR New Mexico
238 Durant Brooks P Georgia Tech
Re: The big day
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