38 or (60 plus 74)
 

Everyone agrees that trades depend on what is available at the time of the pick. Personally, I think it extremely likely that thre will be a top OL or OLB or even other palyer that the patriots might covet at 38. In addition, this trade would gives us more flexibility is using other earlier picks.

FOUR STUDS
17
28
33
38

We would still have plenty of additional picks available for further upgrades. After all, we would still have picks in 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.

Re: 38 or (60 plus 74)
 

I think I understand where you're going with this, but I have a hard time seeing the Cards being willing to trade down 20+ spots in the 2nd, even for the extra two picks.

Re: 38 or (60 plus 74)
 

Well, the big question is what kind of "stud" is likely to be available at #38. Let's make it concrete (albeit hypothetical). The choice is likely to be something like...

ONE of:
Danny Watkins
Justin Houston
Stefen Wisniewski
Allen Bailey
Aaron Williams
Ryan Williams
Sam Acho
Leonard Hankerson

vs.

TWO of:
Ben Ijalana
Ras-I Dowling
Jabaal Sheard
Randall Cobb
Clint Boling
Quinton Carter
Edmund Gates
Kenrick Ellis
Shane Vereen
Edmond Gates
John Moffitt

Re: 38 or (60 plus 74)
 

I agree with your analysis. However, I might move Boling to the first group (I don't think that he will be there at 60) and add Carpenter, Fusco and Kirkpatrick to the second list.

CASE ONE - NO GUARD DRAFTED BY US THROUGH PICK 33
Now, I definitely want to choose between Watkins and Wisnewski.

CASE TWO - A GUARD HAS ALREADY BEEN PICKED, BUT ONLY ONE FRONT 7 PLAYER
Now I want to move up for a linebacker.

CASE THREE - A GUARD AND TWO FRONT SEVEN PLAYERS HAVE BEEN PICKED BT 33
I still might want Watkins or Wisnewski, but the need is less.

BOTTOM LINE
IMHO, I would like four of the five needs filled early: 2 front seven defensive players, 2 interior linemen, and an OT. I could see passing on the OT, especailly if Light is extended. After all, Dante could be fine with Kaczur or LeVoir starting or t least competing for a starting spot with a mid-level veteran free agent.

I suppose that if safety is now viewed as a critical need, we would be less likey to trade up.

Re: 38 or (60 plus 74)
 

having the 33rd pick is a huge advantage for the Pats. They SHOULD get more than fair value for that pick. For example: Say one of the QB poor teams didn't want to take a chance on a Ryan Mallet in round one. They would pay dearly for the opportunity to get him at the top of the 2nd. Also because they Pats will have a full day to field offers the deals will likely get better and better as team try and bid for the pick

I don't know what will happen come April, but I'm fairly certain that when the first round of the draft is completed, the Pats will still have the #33 pick....and it will be up for sale.

Re: 38 or (60 plus 74)
 

From the names you I listed I would much rather have two from column B.

Say, instead of Danny Watkins, I would much prefer Randall Cobb and Ben Ijalana, and I can come up with several other pairs. It would take someone slipping unexpectedly for me to prefer option "A".

Re: 38 or (60 plus 74)
 

I think that many posters put too much of a premium on the stupidity of other GM's. If they want to reach for a QB, they would just as likely to trade for 32 as for 33. Having a night to think about it is greatly over-rated.

Re: 38 or (60 plus 74)
 

Once teams have had a break to reset their boards I DO think that #33 will be at a premium. It isn't stupidity that I am counting on, it is executives who need to make a splash now to keep their jobs and can't resist an impulse buy.

BB's job security gives him a huge advantage there as he is always considering the balance between short term and long term gain.

If picking player "A" is better for your team in the long run but player "B" will have a more immediate impact, far too many GMs will opt for player "B", and BB will be there to help them out; for a price of course..

Re: 38 or (60 plus 74)
 

That's exactly how the Pats GOT #33 in the first place. ;)

Re: 38 or (60 plus 74)
 

Perhaps GMs "having a night to think about it" is the wrong framing. Instead, let's consider the impact of Belichick having a whole night, rather than just 10 minutes, to field offers, play teams off of one another, make 'em sweat, etc. I think that could definitely affect the value realized from a trade.