There usually is a major drop in talent at about 8 -12. The first dozen gives us our projected blue-chippers and almost blue chippers.
The second drop is very variable. Sometimes we call thes playes the red chippers. If there is such a drop, the likelihood of getting a red chipper diminishes greatly after a certain point. Obviously, after this we find players that need work, players who have had "issues", and diamonds in the ruff.
For me, this matters a lot. If the drop is say at 65 (the beginning of the 3rd round, then I would likely want to trade up from 74 (perhaps using the 92 and moving up to about 55). Alternatively if the drop isn't until the 80's, then I would use to 92 if needed to move up, otherwise trade it into 2012. If the driop is project to be around 40, then I would want to trade up from 60.
Where do you all feel the second drop is this year?
02-27-2011 12:53 PM
Re: Where Is The Second Major Drop In Talent?
Using the NFP Grading Scale as a point of reference (and merely that):
Prospects graded at least 7.5 run out around the middle of the 1st.
8.5 Becomes a starter during his rookie year… A prospect who possesses physical attributes that will create mismatches and have an obvious impact on the game… Will become one of the premier players in the league.
8.0 Starts in first game as a pro… A prospect who possesses physical attributes that will create mismatches vs. most opponents… A featured player on a team.
7.5 Becomes a starter during his rookie year… A prospect who possesses physical attributes that will create mismatches vs. most opponents… A featured player on team.
Prospects graded 7.0 run out in the late 1st.
7.0 Becomes a starter during his rookie year… Becomes a solid NFL player who has no real weakness… Can’t be exploited or consistently taken out of games.
Prospects graded 6.8/6.9 run out around mid-2nd.
6.9 Contributes first year and starts second year… Must be able to get on the field and make a contribution as a rookie… Expected to start his second year in the league.
6.8 Contributes first year, but may take time to become a starter… Has the ability to become a starter and will be expected to assume a starting role.
Prospects graded 6.6/6.7 run out by the end of the 2nd round. NOTE: prospects graded 6.6 often get drafted earlier, thus pushing some higher-graded prospects down.
6.7 Contributes first year, but doesn’t possess the physical and/or athletic skill set required to ever become a starter. However has the ability to become a dynamic sub-package option and make an instant impact for an NFL team.
6.6 Clean player who is inconsistent in his play due to character, technique, alertness or competitiveness… Has all the physical tools needed to become a starter… If he overcomes his deficiencies he will be a star in the league… If he doesn’t he will be a complete failure — There is NO middle ground!
Prospects graded 6.0-6.5 (possible starters) last until around the end of the 4th - after that, it's all "backup/depth". NOTE: prospects graded 6.0 often get drafted in the 2nd, thus pushing down higher-grade guys. Yes, Mr. Davis, I'm talking about you.
6.5 Has one deficient area of his playing skills or his physical attributes but should be able to overcome it and contribute to a team… Has the potential to become a starter based on his abilities.
6.4 Has one deficient area of his playing skills or his physical attributes that will be difficult to overcome, but will contribute in spite of it… Has the potential to become a starter based on his abilities.
6.3 Has one deficient area of his physical attributes that he can NEVER overcome, but has been productive and has the potential to be a starter in the NFL in spite of his shortcomings.
6.2 Has one deficient area of his playing skills or physical attributes that he should be able to overcome and contribute to a team. Doesn’t possess the physical and/or athletic skill set required to ever become a starter, but has the abilities to become a productive sub-package option and make an impact for an NFL team.
6.1 A clean prospect who will need time and development in order to contribute…physically, this player has all the tools to be a starter in the NFL but has not yet developed the necessary skills due to level of competition, offensive or defensive schemes, injury, grades or lack of playing time…true developmental player who has the potential to become a starter.
6.0 An underachiever who has exhibited a deficiency in some area of his play...has the abilities to become a starter but hasn’t played up to them…has a problem with football instincts, character and/or competitiveness…boom-or-bust prospect.