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Trading for picks in 2012
This has been BB’s strategy, moving picks out and up. I like it. However, I could envision these trades being less lucrative this year if a new CBA is not agreed upon by draft time.
First, if no CBA is imminent, rookies would likely miss all of the spring passing camps and possibly training camp. They probably won’t even get to look at the playbook. In missing this key development time, 2011 may be a washout season for many rookies, thereby reducing their prospective value to teams. Result: fewer teams willing to trade future picks for this year’s draftees. Second, if no CBA is agreed to by draft time, there will not be any rookie salary cap in 2011. But more likely there will be one in 2012. Under this scenario, 2012 picks may become more valuable. This may only apply to 1st round picks. I wonder if this impacts the relative value of trading picks into the following year? |
Re: Trading for picks in 2012
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My take is that, should no CBA get enacted before then, there would be a real yet very mild Discount to the usual Premium, if you will. Ultimately, though, Trading Forward is generally Bad Business, requiring bad judgment. As such, I expect that those who are inclined to do so ~ and there are MANY, Praise the Gods!! ~ will neither be deterred by the chance of a slow start, nor inclined to dig in their heels when negotiating. |
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I would not be shocked if we traded down from 17, traded #28 or #33 for 2012 picks. Anything is possible. One thing you won't see pats do is package picks to move up. Out of 6 picks in 3rds, I expect 2 to be traded into 2012 draft. That's how you keep reloading every year. |
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Barring another record number of Juniors declaring next year that 2012 class stands to be very weak. With the amount of 3rd year eligible players who have declared the last 2 years we're looking at a thin crop similar to the 2007 draft. Facing a weak draft class, BB has shown a willingness to move picks, my hope is that he just uses them a year early. |
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Re: Trading for picks in 2012
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As stated above, I USUALLY find that to be a fundamentally unsound policy. Indeed, it is only because Coach Bill has acquired such a wealth of Picks that I floated my radical idea, this past Spring, to roll the Raider Pick forward, in pursuit of San Fran's 2nd 1st Rounder, as the likes of Marquis de Pouncey don't come along very often. So while I'm not on board with your approach, I salute the creativity and forward thinking whence it came. If the 2012 Draft Class DOES turn out weak ~ as opposed to every last 2014 Red Shirt Sophomore stampeding to fill the void ~ my approach would simply be to Trade Back, as we did in 2007. Still...I LOVE your sense of GREED. :D |
Re: Trading for picks in 2012
While some may say draft picks may not be as valuable because of the learning the playbook stuff......the fact remains that because the draft is before Free Agency alot of teams will be looking to shore up cheap starting positions with draft picks instead of paying the premium. Because of this draft picks will be more valuable this year than any for any team.
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Re: Trading for picks in 2012
First they have to see how the draft falls because it makes little sense to move picks to the following draft if they have the players they want out of this one right in front of them.
Second they have to take into consideration, however unlikely, the CBA negotiations going completely south and the Players Union using the one real card they hold, decertification and an Antitrust lawsuit against the league, which could mean no bargaining partner and no draft in coming years. The draft is only legal because the union has a deal in place with the owners allowing it as the vehicle for obtaining players, with no union every player would be a free agent from the start and the owners would have no right to dictate to incoming players where they go or don't go. |
Re: Trading for picks in 2012
I know this board hates it, but I'd love to see him gather enough Ammo to move up to #1 land Andrew Luck next year if a Rookie Wage scale is in place (which most believe will).
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And seven years from now he can start. |
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