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Ice_Ice_Brady 01-13-2011 12:56 PM

Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
Here is a look at the numbers from a different perspective to show just how dominant Tom Brady has been over this generation's biggest rival, Peyton Manning. Yes, you hear a lot that Brady and Manning are the "greatest winners in the NFL." You hear that the Colts won the most games of the last decade and they have a playoff streak. You'd think that these two are just about equal. Then you are told that Manning has more wins than Brady, so he must be better at winning. Actually, the opposite is true, and it couldn't be more true. Brady dominates Manning in winning on Sunday.

Since we are not idiots, we look at the numbers by percentages. This is because of the obvious fact that a guy hitting .333 is better than a guy hitting .211, even if the .211 has more hits.

Brady, 125-36 (.776)
Manning, 140-71 (.664)


The most remarkable part of this comparison is that Brady is not far behind Manning in wins, despite that Manning has played in 50 more games. To put theses number into perspective, let's do a little math to figure out just how great this gap is:

For Manning to get his winning percentage to Brady's level, he would have to win 91 consecutive games. If the Colts went 16-0 in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015, Manning would still win a lesser percentage of games than Brady. Brady would have to lose 27 consecutive games to match Manning's current percentage.

If you took away Manning's worst 30 games of his career, all losses, he would then be roughly tied with Brady (if you were trying to pin it on his rookie season, there goes the argument, even though I don't hear pundits saying they should remove his cumulative passing yds and tds from that season.) Likewise, if you took out 53 of Brady's wins, he would still be ahead of Manning's current percentage.

What Manning has done is very good, although his "dominance" has been done before by numerous quarterbacks. What Brady has done is almost statistically impossible. If Brady keeps up a winning % over .750, that record will never be broken; although statisticians hold certain records in high regard, this might be the most unbelievable record in sports.

One other interesting fact:

Brady has more career wins (125) than interceptions (121). Manning would have to win his next 77 games, with no losses and no interceptions, to have the same results.

ZeroSinceSpyGate 01-13-2011 01:00 PM

Re: Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Ice_Ice_Brady (Post 2442391)
Here is a look at the numbers from a different perspective to show just how dominant Tom Brady has been over this generation's biggest rival, Peyton Manning. Yes, you hear a lot that Brady and Manning are the "greatest winners in the NFL." You hear that the Colts won the most games of the last decade and they have a playoff streak. You'd think that these two are just about equal. Then you are told that Manning has more wins than Brady, so he must be better at winning. Actually, the opposite is true, and it couldn't be more true. Brady dominates Manning in winning on Sunday.

Since we are not idiots, we look at the numbers by percentages. This is because of the obvious fact that a guy hitting .333 is better than a guy hitting .211, even if the .211 has more hits.

Brady, 125-36 (.776)
Manning, 140-71 (.664)


The most remarkable part of this comparison is that Brady is not far behind Manning in wins, despite that Manning has played in 50 more games. To put theses number into perspective, let's do a little math to figure out just how great this gap is:

For Manning to get his winning percentage to Brady's level, he would have to win 91 consecutive games. If the Colts went 16-0 in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015, Manning would still win a lesser percentage of games than Brady. Brady would have to lose 27 consecutive games to match Manning's current percentage.

If you took away Manning's worst 30 games of his career, all losses, he would then be roughly tied with Brady (if you were trying to pin it on his rookie season, there goes the argument, even though I don't hear pundits saying they should remove his cumulative passing yds and tds from that season.) Likewise, if you took out 53 of Brady's wins, he would still be ahead of Manning's current percentage.

What Manning has done is very good, although his "dominance" has been done before by numerous quarterbacks. What Brady has done is almost statistically impossible. If Brady keeps up a winning % over .750, that record will never be broken; although statisticians hold certain records in high regard, this might be the most unbelievable record in sports.

One other interesting fact:

Brady has more career wins (125) than interceptions (121). Manning would have to win his next 77 games, with no losses and no interceptions, to have the same results.

Sanchez has a better playoff percentage then manning but does that make him better? Winning percentage really doesn't mean anything individual accomplishments do.

xmarkd400x 01-13-2011 01:00 PM

Re: Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
.776 is a fitting Patriot / New England winning percentage =)

Jangles 01-13-2011 01:02 PM

Re: Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
Pretty sure guys other than Brady and Manning suited up for those games.

While Brady is great, his winning percentage isn't 100% on him. It's a team effort

upstater1 01-13-2011 01:05 PM

Re: Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ZeroSinceSpyGate (Post 2442401)
Sanchez has a better playoff percentage then manning but does that make him better? Winning percentage really doesn't mean anything individual accomplishments do.

So does that Minnesota Viking kid who started one game in his entire life and is 1-0.

Now, let's get back to talking about real QBs who have played the game for more than 2 full seasons.

The Jets do not have a seat at the big boy table (1969!!!) though in a decade they may get their "feet" in the door.

upstater1 01-13-2011 01:06 PM

Re: Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by II Jangles II (Post 2442416)
Pretty sure guys other than Brady and Manning suited up for those games.

While Brady is great, his winning percentage isn't 100% on him. It's a team effort

Given Brady's supporting cast of receivers over the years compared to Manning's, and given Manning's playoff record and penchant for throwing poor INTs at the worst moments, I'd agree more with the OP than with you.

RodThePat 01-13-2011 01:07 PM

Re: Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ZeroSinceSpyGate (Post 2442401)
Sanchez has a better playoff percentage then manning but does that make him better? Winning percentage really doesn't mean anything individual accomplishments do.

Sanchez has played in 4 postseason games, Manning has played in 19. We are talking about almost 200 games of data for each player as the basis for the comparison. Even you know your argument is dumb.

Ice_Ice_Brady 01-13-2011 01:13 PM

Re: Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
OP here.

You guys are nuts.

First of all, the Mark Sanchez argument is retarded and not worth getting into. It's common sense that anything statistically significant tends to even out over time. Why even go there? That is exactly why this pct. is incredible.

For those of you talking about others suiting up on the field. These stats demonstrate the gap is so wide that any of those arguments are very hard-pressed, especially considering this is the NFL, and there is a salary cap, and the Colts have a proven winner in Bill Polian's management.

Armchair Quarterback 01-13-2011 01:14 PM

Re: Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ZeroSinceSpyGate (Post 2442401)
Sanchez has a better playoff percentage then manning but does that make him better? Winning percentage really doesn't mean anything individual accomplishments do.

Spoken like a true Jets fan, ZeroSince1969.

Ice_Ice_Brady 01-13-2011 01:16 PM

Re: Breaking down Brady/Manning winning %
 
Winning percentage means very little over 5 games.

It means a lot more over 50 games.

It means everything over 150 games.


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