An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

Running on First Down

I personally thought little of the running on first down, and thought it to be a very prevalent and foolhardy part of the approach in the game. I decided to look at the play-by-play to see how often the Pats ran on first down, the results of those runs, and the patterns for calling those plays. It seems I was a little mistaken on one of my presumptions. The Pats passed far more often on first down, though I did accurately gauge that the gains from runs on first down were mediocre or non-existent. By the second half, the first down runs diminished greatly, partly as a result of playing from behind.

Total runs on first down: 11/27, 31 yds, 2.8 YPC

Breakdown by Half

First half: 7/15, 16 yds, 2.3 YPC
Second half runs on first down: 4/12, 15 yds, 3.75 YPC

Brady?

Brady's choice of targets may be unfairly maligned. Unlike what some are saying, Brady spread the wealth a little bit, targeting nine different receivers, while completing passes to eight. However, he does target Moss and Welker more than the other receivers. Hernandez was a favorite target of Brady's as well, and Hernandez was bulletproof reliable, picking up big yardage. Though, after Hernandez, the distribution is pretty thin. Only Faulk, Edelman, and Gronkowski were targeted more than once. For the game, Brady's targets were as follows:

Hernandez - 6/6 - 101 yds
Edelman - 1/2 - 6 yds
Faulk - 2/4 - 15 yds
Welker - 6/7 - 38 yds (1 TD)
Moss - 2/9 - 38 yds (1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 Def PI for 8yds)
Gronkowski - 1/2 - 14 yds
Crumpler - 0/1
Morris - 1/2 - 19 yds
Tate - 1/1 - 17yds
Unknown - 0/1 (throw away?)

In the second half, Brady targeted nine different receivers, completing passes to five of them. There are a few interesting points to note. Brady targeted only six receivers in the first half, as opposed to nine in the second half. Moss was targeted 5 times in 20 attempts in the first half and 4 times in 16 attempts in the second half. In other words, Brady looked for Moss with the same frequency before and after the touchdown, the fifth pass attempted to Moss. Here is Brady's pass distribution in the second half:

Hernandez - 2/2 - 21 yds
Edelman - 0/1 - 0 yds
Faulk - 1/1 - 7 yds
Welker - 2/2 - 5 yds (one for -2 yds)
Moss - 0/4 - 0 yds (2 INTs, 1 Def PI for 8yds)
Gronkowski - 0/1
Crumpler - 0/1
Morris - 1/2 - 19 yds
Tate - 1/1 - 17yds
Unknown - 0/1 (throw away?)

One could still make the argument that though Brady was not targeting Moss more frequently, he was still forcing passes to Moss. One could also make the argument that second interception wasn't all on Brady. However, it is definitely not accurate to say that Brady was looking for Moss anymore than he was in the first half, when the Patriot offense was supposedly doing alright. It would also be a mistake to say that Brady was not trying to spread the wealth around, even after the Moss touchdown. In fact, he successfully incorporated Morris and Tate in the second, albeit only one time a piece. Of course, the focus on Brady-to-Moss is because of the INTs and the fact that Brady targeted Moss on 3rd and 7, the incompletion of which forced a punt.

A major problem appeared to be the inability to find Hernandez more often in the second half. This could be due to the Jets defense, but without game tape, I'm at the mercy of those who have it, and can't make a determination as to why Brady didn't find his most productive target more often.

In any case, that's my two rambling cents and this is probably the last I really want to talk about that game. I think the numbers above are more important than what I have to say.

Thoughts?

Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

Hernandez 8/8. This guy is a black hole and will be a force for years. Pats potentially have drafted the best tight end tandem in NFL history. Barring injuries, there is no way Gronk or Hernandez don't make an impact in the league. It's disgusting how good this offense could be if they just looked for the open guy rather than making the decision pre-snap to throw deep to Moss.

Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

Nice statistics.

As always, what you see during the game whenyour emotion runs hot and you have a very short memory is proven to be very unreliable.

What bothers me more with moss is not that they try to throw the occasional deep bomb to him, to keep the safeties and CBs honest, but the lack of success they had on the intermediate throws yesterday. Hope that stays a one game problem.

Another thing I thought while watching, was that in the second half, the Jets DLine had much more success in hurrying brady, which of course leads to hurried throws, even when they dont get the sacks.

Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

That's the problem, I think. The Jits start to come back--the Pats pass, pass, pass, and then finding themselves behind by a single TD, TB throws bombs everywhere. Sanchez was passing too, but mixing in a lot of runs with LT and Green.

Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

First of all, nice breakdown.

I think that either way you slice it, Brady did not have a good second half - between some questionable decisions and some poor throws. Here are some of my thoughts:

INT #1 - this is actually not on Brady. It was 3rd and long, they had max protection and only 3 guys running routes. Welker and Hernandez were double/triple covered and Moss was 1-1, so it was the right decision. And although it looks like the throw was overthrown, Moss actually slowed down before the throw. So this one is not on Brady at all.

INT #2 - if you look on Brady's left, Welker and Tate are getting 1-1 coverage. Looks like Wilson screwed up something and both guys were wide open. Tate was wide open in a big way and could have gone for a TD. You could also complain about the throw he made there, but to me the bigger issue is the decision.

Underthrow to Gronk - this one really hurt. Brady clearly underthrew that ball by about 5 yards.

Overthrows - Morris in the flat - small gain but an indicator of Brday's torubles, Moss wide open on the sideline - when Moss actually got open, Crumpler on the corner - looks like Brady back-shouldered it but it was way off.

Sack/fumble - hard to fault Brady because he got hit so quick, but again it looks like he's locked in on Moss. Hernandez had his man beat for a TD with his arm raised and the safety sitting over the top of Moss.

It's also worth noting that Brady didn't look at Tate nearly enough - he was given an 8 yard cushion almost the entire game.

Of course, not to zero in on Brady. A lot of guys were responsible for negative plays - Light, Vollmer, Hernandez, Koppen all had blocking breakdowns in the 2nd half. But Brady is supposed to be THE guy on this team and the best QB in the league. He didn't play as such in the 2nd half.

Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

By the way, with regards to this running thing - one of the reasons you run is to set up the play action pass. I don't remember the Pats throwing even 1 play action. Which is kind of curious and make me thing they would have been better off running draws from the shotgun.

Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

On the deflected pick to Moss they showed a wide open Brandon Tate in the middle of the field
It's not that Brady is throwing to Moss.
It's that Brady is throwing to Moss when Moss is covered while ignoring other guys who are wide open.
There was a day when Brady's favorite receiver was the open receiver. It was a quaint saying but it was TRUE and it made Tom Brady a HOF QB, a clutch 4th qtr QB, a feared QB at the end of the game.
That is no longer the case.

2007 and the presence of Randy Moss has changed the type of QB Tom Brady is and NOT for the better.

Agree on the playcalling. You don't run against the Jets and you really don't run on 1st down against the Jets. That puts the offense in 2nd/3rd and long situation. This veteran and supremely talented offense needs to smarten up all the way around. They can start with the playcalling.

Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

I'm not as high on Hernandez yet, but he could be great with Brady throwing to him. Right now he is not game planned against like Moss and Welker are so he's mainly seeing a LB or #4/5 DB. With his ability he can easily get separation, and at time the other team will leave him wide open like Cincinnati did. If he keeps playing like he is then other teams will be forced to shut him down too.

Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

We're seeing exactly the opposite things. The replays on the two bad INTs to Moss showed other receivers double covered and Moss man-to-man (yes covered).

I'd put the emphasis on the running game here. 1 runs in the second half for 2.8 yards?

That lead to 3rd and longs that were not converted.

The offensive gameplan leaves much to be desired.

Re: An Analysis on 1st Downs and Brady
 

Normally I would agree, but I get the feeling the Jets are a tough team to play action against, because their front seven tends to play the run and pass the same way: Aggressively. In many cases, all play action does against the Jets is give that front seven and extra half to full second to get to Brady.