The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

There is disagreement about whether the league's penalty of a lost 1st round draft pick is too harsh or too lienant. I think it's fair. Think about your position with the following.

The link below is to a very interesting article from folks at Duke and the University of Chicago about the "value" of draft picks. It was written in 2005, but is very very relevant when thinking about the true cost of the penalty that has been levied against our Patriots.

http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/%7Ecad...7s%20curse.pdf

As you can see in the attached graph, their conclusion is that the most value (where you get the best performance for the least amount of money/salary cap implications) is realized in picks 25-75...exactly where we assume the our first round pick would have been...and certainly where more than one of the picks that we would have inevitably traded the first rounder for would be.

In more practical terms, think of anyone that the Pats have drafted in the late first round through early third round and then take them off our team. Some I'm sure we could live with (I'm talking to you, Chad Jackson), but others I'm sure we would be heartbroken about (think Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Ben Watson, etc). Plus throw in the possible trades for veteran players that we would have had the freedom to execute with an extra first rounder and you begin to see the real loss that the commish's penalty is.

As I said, I think that the league's penalty was relatively fair, all things considered, as long as the league remains committed to punishing teams equitably in the future for the same infraction of having a camera on the field. Test case possibly coming from the possible Jets employee that has gotten so much attention on this board. The reason I think that the punishment is fair is because in my mind there really IS a difference between videotaping defensive signals and trying to steal them through binoculars. When looking through binoculars, you don't have the luxury of hitting rewind as many times as you want or playing the game in slow motion. At least there is still some skillful human element involved in this type of gamesmanship. The Falcons offical stated that he thought you might be able to correctly decipher maybe two extra plays correctly using video versus binolculars...but many games hinge on the success or failure of a few key plays. Even if they don't directly influence the score, momentum can swing or not. So this advantage, in some cases, might not just be minimal.

I don't think that this takes away from ANYTHING that they Patriots have accomplished and I give them props for pushing the envelope in their pursuit of excellence. However, rules were broken that could have given the Pats an advantage. A serious infraction of a rule, backed up by indisputable evidence requires a serious punishment. This was a serious punishment without taking it too far.

Re: The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

I'm a Jets fan who thought the penalty was too harsh. I believe a number 1 is a steep price to pay for this violation. I think a suspension of Belichick for a couple of games would have been more appropriate, but I do understand Goodell's intentions.

Re: The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

the worst penalty in nfl history is a loss of a 3rd, for an admitted salary cap scam by the broncos... they could have never won those SB's without that admitted cheating... so you decide... a 1st? lol (f'ing joke), or give elway the ring he NEVER could have won.

Re: The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

1st round picks are the lifeblood of franchises, especially now that contracts are reduced in length in subsequent rounds. This really hurts the Pats.

Good post.

Re: The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

Look, they dinged us a #1. Life is cruel, ***** happens, move on. Would we all like it back, no question. But for every Logan Mankins, there is a Chad Jackson.......its all a crapshoot

We will survive, team will survive. I have faith in Pioli and BB abilities to draft well. We still have a SF #1 (likely 15-20 range), our #2, Raiders #3, and our #3. We have a Young core on Offense and great leadership on D.

So, chill, and enjoy the 2007 season, as the Quest for #4 has begun

Re: The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

Without Norv Turner and Pep Hamilton, Alex Smith will fall back to earth-if anyting, both of these assistants there have a history of making wonders out of garbage.

He didn't look all that good against AZ the other day-he got lucky with that last drive, and that is all.

Re: The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

Alex Smith is the re-incarnation of Joey Harrington. 49'ers will be lucky to win 8 games in that division with Rams, Hawks, Zona.

so the pick could easily be 10-15. If so, our famous wheeler and dealer pair can easily swing that #1 into 2 late #1's and a future #2

Re: The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

So our # 1 is lost.

That means that every team moves up one slot? And the team with the 1st pick in the draft round 1 and round 2 would actually have the equivalent of 2 number 1s?

Re: The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

first round pick is a statement made by the new commish. We'll see if he can really improve the image of the game. As for us, there is only one solution: win. Here is our adversity.

Re: The Value of the Lost 1st Round Pick
 

OTOH, the Pats are astute at picking out talent from the other end of the talent pool, too:

Eric Alexander
Randall Gay
Matt Gutierrez
Corey Mays
Stephen Neal
Lonie Paxton
Santonio Thomas
Pierre Woods
Mike Wright

Think about that for a second--out of the 53 players on the active roster, NINE of them were signed by the Pats as UDFAs. So, yes, losing the first hurts, but, in the grand scheme of things, I think it won't hurt quite as much as we fear.

[Also, remember that that curve is an average, and not indicative of what any one pick will be.]