Future cap question?
 

Just looking at next years cap, the Patriots are right up against it.

Projected cap $116 M
Current count $100 M

http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html

On paper it appears that there is no way they keep Stallworth $6.3M hit or Washington 5.8M hit (if he makes the team). We may be rebuilding the WR core again after next year (Moss, Caldwell, Gaffney are free agents)

08 Priorities \ Questions
- Stallworth - $6.3M, unless he really lights it up he is hard to keep at this number
- Washington - $5.8M impossible to keep at this number
- Colvin - $7.3, not as high as I thought seems like he is worth keeping or extending
- Brady is at $14, it may be time to lock him up for 5-6 years
- Light - $5M, seems like he is worth keeping

Possible candidates for early extensions (all three have contracts that expire after 2009, extending them 2 years early ala Ty Warren could save the Patriots a lot of money and help keep some key players on the team )
- Wilfork
- Mankins
- Hobbs

Re: Future cap question?
 

I'd say that TB will adjust, Kelley Washington OR Donte won't be here at those numbers, and something might happen with Rosey.

Re: Future cap question?
 

Washington is currently fighting for a fifth or sixth WR roster spot. No way will he be retained at his option price. If he is on the team next season, he will need to do some major renegotiations.

I think Stallworth would have to have a monster year to see his option too. If he doesn't, he may be willing to renegotiate depending on how well he did. From what we heard about him before he signed with us, he is going to want to get paid for a good to great season though.

I think this could be Harrison's last year. He is getting up there in age and if he wins he could want to go out on top. As long as he plays like we all think he can play, he will have a spot on the team though.

I expect Colvin to be extended. His pass rushing skills have been underrated on this team. He is very good at rushing the passer. I think he is happy to retire here if he can. So I think he will get a three or so year extention.

I think Wilfork will get an extension next offseason. Belichick is high on him (as well he should) and the NT position is arguably the most important position in a 3-4 defense. Besides, they locked up Seymour and Warren at this time too. Belichick and Pioli value the d-line more than other areas when it comes to locking up players.

I don't think Hobbs or Mankins will get an extension unless they take serious discounts. They both play in positions that Belichick and Pioli don't seem to be too quick to make extensions.

Re: Future cap question?
 

I'd love to see Harrison decide to be a coach instead of a ref. He'd be one heckuva great secondary coach, and I could see him as a HC farther down. He loves the game, he's tough, and he's smart.

Hobbs may be the exception to the rule on CBs. From all indications, he's more Bruschi than Law, more Harrison than Samuel. I wouldn't be surprised to see him want to stay here and not seek the biggest payday.

Disagree on Mankins. Light, Neal, Koppen all got extensions. Mankins is another Patriots guy. Heck, when they drafted him, I believe they were looking all the way down the road to an extension, choosing a guy with his character.

Agree on Washington, he'll have to renegotiate to stay. Stallworth, I don't know. He may turn out well and be left as is. Agree on Colvin.

Re: Future cap question?
 

I think all of Light, Neal, and Koppen either got deals in the last year of their contract or as free agents. Neal did get a RFA tender one season if I am correct. They rarely do two years in advance like they did with Seymour and Warren. That is what I meant, but looking back at my post I clearly didn't state it that way.

Re: Future cap question?
 

It's actually $110M or less than $6M under, but that's with 49 players signed. Up against the cap is when your committments exceed the projected cap and you're facing certain cuts just to get under.

It's doubtful Washington will be here at anything approaching his $5.7M cap hit, although his deal has sub $2M basically all salary cap hits going forward so a simple restructure would drop his 2008 hit by $3M+. A couple of million would likely be pushed forward via converting roster to signing bonus on a Stallworth retention as well. Rosie is ripe for extension which would drop his cap hit probably close to half, as is Brady (although he still has ample room for simple restructure). Matt Light's deal is nothing but salary in the final year so his deal too is easily restructured. They could restructure/extend themselves into an additional $12M or so in cap room without causing future difficulties. That would have them at almost $18M under the 2008 cap with 49 players still signed. Then there is the matter of their still being $8M under the 2007 cap - money that can be used to extend a couple of WR if they wish/decide to and/or rolled over into 2008.

Re: Future cap question?
 

We have 49 players signed. We are hardly right up against it with $6M left. We about even with the board. We could simply convert almost all of Brady's and Washington's salaries to bonus, easily freeing enough cap money for anything we need. There certainly are needs. Let's look at the roster.

For this analyis I will assume that Baker beats out Mitchell for the final ST spot, and that Richardson beats out James. I will eliminate players who won't make this year's team.

Obviously, we could extend Moss instead of keeping Stallworth or Washington.

Note that I presume that we keep our ERFA's and RFA's. Wright could be offered the highest tender if needed.

We will have rookies to replace some of the players on the current list that I don't include because they won't make this year's roster.
----------------------
OFFENSE (24)
QB - Brady, Cassell, Gutierrez (or replacement)
RB - Maroney, Faulk, Morris
FB - Evans
TE - Watson, Brady, Thomas
OL - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaycur, Hochstein, Yates, O'Callaghan, Britt
WR - Stallworth, Washington, Welker, Jackson, fa

DEFENSE (26)
DL - Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, Smith, Brown
LB - Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas, Woods, Alexander, Rogers, fa, fa, fa
CB - Hobbs, Richardson, Jackson, fa
S - Harrison, Sanders, Meriweather, Baker, Andrews, fa

SPECIALISTS (3)
K - Gostkowski
P - Baugher
DS - fa

BOTTOM LINE
1) The 2008 offense is ready to go, with a minor tweak or two.
2) The 2008 DL is signed and ready to go.
3) We need some help at CB and LB, as we do every year.
4) We need to sign or replace Lonnie

Re: Future cap question?
 

I don't think there is too much to worry about, you have a ProBowl QB, Probowl DE, and most of your defensive starters (Bruschi & Gay/Samuel). Hopefully the coach returns...

Starters not signed:
- Moss
- Bruschi
- Samuel
- Wilson

Other contributors not signed:
- Gaffney
- Caldwell
- Gay
- Seau

The theme is WR, CB, LB.


$6M is not a lot, they could clear more but $6M is nothing. About $3M will be part of the rookie pool. We could see some creative extensions or restructures but 5 or 6 in one season seems like a lot. Next year looks like more will be done with in-house personnel than the spending spree the team went on this year.

I don't know how the 2008 offense is ready to with such question marks at WR.

I agree with the following:
CB depth - looks awful
LB depth is also suspect

Re: Future cap question?
 

Actually Miguel's calculation is that we have just $5.2M in cap space for 2008, but none of this adds up to cap difficulty:

1. There are 49 players currently signed for 2008. Add in our 2008 draft picks (including 5 on the first day), and we've got more than a full team under contract.

2. Several of these players will be cut before the 2007 season even ends.

3. We will probably push several million of 2007 cap into 2008 (we pushed nearly $4M into this year).

4. Several players are in potential renegotiate or cut situations for 2008: Stallworth, Washington, Colvin, Harrison and Faulk amongst others. All of these players can play well enough in 2007 to guarantee their continued presence on the team at their present salary, but its pretty unlikely that ALL of them will do so. [BTW, this includes Washington. Although his 2008 cap hit would be nearly $6M, his average cap hit for 2008-2011 would be just over $3M. If he plays well enough to be a genuine #2 receiver, he'll clearly be worth it. Especially with most of our other receivers potentially leaving after this year.]

5. We have plenty of opportunities to push cap hits into future years, starting with Brady.

Our salary cap health will continue into 2009 when we lose few key players, and we have over $32M in cap space for that year. Only in 2010, when we'll have an exceptionally painful free agent class, do things get tricky.

Re: Future cap question?
 

We add players every season. Every season players leave. $6M is fine when you have 49 players under contract, $8M in excess cap in 2007 and contracts that are set up to be restructure friendly for 2008. Brady's cap hit in 2010 is still just $10M. Mannings is roughly double that for the next 3 - there is a distinct difference between having to restructure and being easily able to, although Miguel will tell you both approaches can work just fine. Light has no cap hit save $4.5M in salary in 2010 (when LT cap hits will be routinely approaching double that) - dumping some of his 2008 salary into the future will not create any problems - in part because he had little signing bonus to begin with and it was only spread through 2009. Stallworth's 2008-2011 scheduled cap hits are between $4M and 6M which if he works out as a #1 will make him affordable and restructure friendly.

The will certainly need to sign or re-sign some talent to replace any we are potentially losing. But they will easily have the cash and cap to do just that. Finding the talent - and at a compensation level they can live with philosophically within their salary structure - is much more of a concern than being able to afford it. But that is always the case here.